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March 2018Research InstituteThought leadership from Credit Suisse Researchand the worlds foremost expertsEmerging Consumer Survey 2018EditorialThe eighth edition of the Credit Suisse Research Institutes Emerging Consumer Survey contin-ues our exploration of growth opportunities across Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey. This years report shows ongoing improvement in consumer sentiment across the surveyed economies. Interestingly, we see the group of geographies that increasingly drive consumption broaden, moving away from a predominantly Asia-driven trend. While India and China continue to top our country scorecard, there DUHVLJQLGFDQWLPSURYHPHQWVLQ%UDLO0HLFR5XVVLDand Turkey, where consumers are growing increas-ingly optimistic about their income prospects. The analysis in our survey sets out how some of the key macro trends are being exhibited in VSHFLGFFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRUDQGSUHIHUHQFHV7KH unifying theme is the role of the young and increas-ingly wealthy consumer, particularly in China, whose consumption patterns steadily gravitate toward a healthier, mobile and active lifestyle. This years Emerging Consumer Survey further lays out how the structural drivers behind consumer development in emerging countries differ from those across the developed world. Notably, the consumption share of GDP in mature economies has been in steady decline, while among our surveyed emerging countries, we witness a doubling in its share since 2000. We believe that reduced income prospects and deteriorating demographic trends in developed economies continue to be the force behind this sentiment and contrast starkly with the conditions across the emerging world, where urbanization continues to positively impact incomes.This year, we also examine the savings behavior of consumers across our eight emerging countries and their relative sophistication. The 2017 edition of the Credit Suisse Research Institutes Global Wealth Report has singled out emerging markets as the fastest source of wealth accumulation, with their share of global wealth set to reach 22% in WKHQHWGYHHDUVUHODWLYHWRLQ$VKLIWin the manner in which this growing wealth is held FDUULHVSRZHUIXOLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUGQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGGQDQFLDOPDUNHWV:HQRWHWKDWVXFKFKDQJ-es are taking place in India, which is currently one of the greatest sources of wealth accumulation. Direct investment in equity markets and mutual funds is rising sharply and we see both an emerging consumer and an emerging saver.Ultimately, we explore the impact of the connected economy, which continues to deepen DQGZLGHQLQWKHHPHUJLQJZRUOG,Q 29% in rural areasMexico (11%*)No. of respondents: 1,533Locations: 5Urban areas: 70%Rural areas: 30%Brazil (11%*)No. of respondents: 1,528Locations: 5Urban areas: 70%Rural areas: 30%Turkey (11%*)No. of respondents: 1,521Locations: 14Urban areas: 70%Rural areas: 30%Russia (11%*)No. of respondents: 1,505Locations: 8Urban areas: 67%Rural areas: 33%China (18%*)No. of respondents: 2,584Locations: 10Urban areas: 76%Rural areas: 24%South Africa (8%*)No. of respondents: 1,056Locations: 6Urban areas: 70%Rural areas: 30%India (20%*)No. of respondents: 2,814Locations: 10Urban areas: 73%Rural areas: 27%Indonesia (11%*)No. of respondents: 1,536Locations: 10Urban areas: 66%Rural areas: 34%Note: % of survey sampled from this countryEmerging Consumer Survey 2018 4The Emerging Consumer in 2018The relevance to an investor of the “supertrend” of the emerging consumer has always been a FDVHRIEDODQFLQJWKHVWUXFWXUDOZLWKWKHFFOLFDO7KHLQHXHQFHRIWKHODWWHUKDVRIWHQVZDPSHGWKHIRUPHU+RZHYHULQRXUHLJKWK(PHUJLQJ and the shift to a healthier lifestyle among con-sumers. Such themes have proved not only highly rewarding for investors but have also underlined that the development of the consumer in the emerging world does not always follow a notional script written by his/her developed market counterpart. In this years study, demographic drivers are a common theme: how trends in the emerging world contrast with those in the developed world and how WKHLQHXHQFHWKHVLHRIWKHJURZWKSRWHQWLDODQGimportantly its mix. A dedicated focus on the young, XUEDQDQGZHDOWKGHPRJUDSKLFWKDWWSLGHVHPHUJ-LQJPDUNHWVLVODLGRXWLQ a more medium-term DQG EURDGHU DVVHVVPHQW RI FRQVXPHUV GQDQFLDOSRVLWLRQV Question 2 IHDUVRILQHDWLRQJLYHQLWVability to erode income through food prices in par-WLFXODU Question 3); and income momentum, which LVWKHNHWRXOWLPDWHVSHQGLQJ Questions 4 and 5). In Appendix 3, we show a breakdown of the country scores for questions 1, 2 and 5 by age, income and region.Looking at the aggregate readings from the sur-vey for these questions in Table 1, the message is one of solid improvement. Other than a slight dete-ULRUDWLRQLQLQHDWLRQHSHFWDWLRQVHDFKRIRXULQGLFD-tors has materially improved since last year. Two in particular catch our eye. First, the balance of people believing that now is a good time to make a major purchase is at its highest since 2014, signifying im-plicit support for spending on bigger-ticket items. Second, we have seen an increase in the proportion of people recording positive income momentum last year, exceeding the number recording declines and thus reversing the picture from last years survey. Better income trends clearly provide a more solid foundation for the immediate spending outlook. :HUHHHFWLQ&KDSWHURQKRZLPSRUWDQWLQFRPH progression is to the long-term theme of growing consumption and driving its mix shift.Emerging Consumer Survey 2018 6-1001020304050India China Brazil Mexico Indonesia SouthAfricaTurkey Russia2015 2016 2017010203040506070Turkey Brazil China Russia Indonesia India Mexico SouthAfrica2015 2016 2017-60-50-40-30-20-10010203040India China Indonesia Russia Mexico SouthAfricaTurkey Brazil2015 2016 2017Country contrasts7KHRYHUDOOSLFWXUHLVFOHDUOQRWUHHHFWLYHRIHYHUcountry and we again break down these questions in Figures 1 to 5, which compare the strength of the responses by country, with the strongest on the left of the chart and descending thereafter. ,IZHFRQVLGHUGUVWWKHWZRVSHFLGFTXHVWLRQVthat stood out at the aggregate level regarding the sharp increase in the appetite for bigger-ticket pur-chases and improving income momentum , India is a country that has improved sharply on both counts and also records the highest readings for both questions. In fact, in terms of the question as to whether now is a good to make a major purchase, the reading is the highest India has seen in the KLVWRURIWKHVXUYH2XUFROOHDJXHVLQ,QGLDUHHHFWon this in more detail later in the report with a par-ticular eye to the trends they are seeing in the car market.Based on the majority of the measures, and consistent with prior surveys, higher readings in Asia ,QGLD &KLQD DQG ,QGRQHVLD WHQG WR RYHUVKDGRZthe other survey countries and suggest that these three countries have the most robust end-consumer markets. We would note, however, that there has been some loss of momentum in Indonesia. For example, the net proportion of Indonesians sur-veyed that have seen their incomes rise over the last 12 months has fallen from 27% to 21%. Op-timism about future income has also moderated, although from high levels. A change in the process of determining minimum wages in Indonesia adversely impacting the year-on-year momentum relative to previous years has played a role here in the opinion of our country team.In regard to Chinas robust readings, we would particularly note the increase in the number of survey participants expecting an improvement in their per-VRQDOGQDQFHV WKHKLJKHVWVLQFH +HUHWKHXQGHUOLQJGDWDUHHHFWVDQLPSURYHPHQWRUVWDELOLD-tion in the inland regions and cities in the survey with DFRPPRGLWVHQVLWLYHRUKHDYLQGXVWUELDV %DRMLHandan and Shenyang), which has been a source of downward pressure on consumer sentiment indi-cators in previous years. Our China consumer team discuss the theme of changing spending patterns in lower-tier cities later in the report.Focusing on the right side of a number of the charts, particularly Figures 4 and 5, the relatively weaker readings for some countries look familiar to SUHYLRXVVXUYHV HJ%UDLO0HLFR5XVVLDDQGTurkey). However, while the relative rankings may be lower for these countries, their absolute read-ings are improving based on most of the metrics we use, notably in Figure 5 where incomes have been concerned. 7 Emerging Consumer Survey 2018Figure 4Net percentage of respondents who expect household income to increase over the next 12 months Source: Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2018-100102030405060Indonesia India Brazil China SouthAfricaMexico Turkey Russia2015 2016 2017Figure 5Net percentage of respondents who have seen household income increase over the last 12 monthsSource: Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2018Figure 66WDWHRISHUVRQDOGQDQFHVLQ5XVVLDSource: Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2018-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%100000,QFRPH 58% Balance better vs. worse-40-30-20-10010203040India Indonesia China Turkey SouthAfricaRussia Mexico Brazil2015 2016 2017Figure 7Consumer scorecard indicators (%) RussiaFigure 8Consumer scorecard indicators (%) MexicoFigure 9Consumer scorecard indicators (%) BrazilFigure 10Consumer scorecard indicators (%) TurkeySource Figures 710: Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2018 -102030Personal finances Income expectations Income change inlast 12mGood time to makea major purchaseMax Min Average Current 2016 -10203040Personal finances Income expectations Income change inlast 12mGood time to makea major purchaseMax Min Average Current 2016 -20406080Personal finances Income expectations Income change inlast 12mGood time to makea major purchaseMax Min Average Current 2016 -1020Personal finances Income expectations Income change inlast 12mGood time to makea major purchaseMax Min Average Current 2016Judging countries by their own history 7KH VLJQLGFDQFH RI WKLV LV PRUH DSSDUHQW LQ Figures 7 to 10 . Here we compare the survey readings HFOXGLQJLQHDWLRQHSHFWDWLRQV LQWHUPVRIWKHLUhistoric highs/lows over the life of our survey and also last year.From these charts, we note that Russia has improved on every metric, with the trend in major purchase intentions now well above average. Mexico has also seen an improvement, with the UHVSRQGHQWVSHUFHSWLRQRIWKHLUSHUVRQDOGQDQFHVat its highest level. Brazil presents a less-compel-ling picture as it is still below its historic averages, if off the lows reached during the worst recession the country has endured. Turkey has seen a marked recovery in three out of four of the metrics, with the notable feature being a degree of “mean reversion” from what had been a series of all-time lows in our survey in the midst of high political tension a year ago.The country summaries from our regional specialists help to contextualize the improvements in the sentiment indicators and judge their sustain-DELOLW VHHpages 56 to 71). At a top-down level, three factors have to varying degrees tended to EHLPSRUWDQWIRUFRQVXPHUFRQGGHQFHRYHUWLPHFRPPRGLWHSRVXUHFXUUHQFYRODWLOLW QRWOHDVWJLYHQWKHLPSDFWRQLPSRUWHGLQHDWLRQ DQGSROLWLFDOrisk. The latter two are often intertwined. The commodity exporters of Brazil and Russia KDYHEHQHGWHGIURPWKHGUPHUWUHQGLQSULFHVDVVHHQ LQ PHWDO SULFHV DQG RLO Figure 12). Where currencies are concerned, and as Figure 11 shows, only Turkey saw a sizable net depreciation in its FXUUHQF LQ DPLG LQHDWLRQFXUUHQW DFFRXQWconcerns and political tension with its foreign policy FRXQWHUSDUWV HJWKH86$DQG*HUPDQ DOWKRXJKthese pressures abated late in the year.Notwithstanding the improvements highlighted for the countries above, we are more than aware that sizable risks remain, politically and economically as our teams set out. However, one feature that stands out in the survey in general, but particularly in the countries above, is the severe disparity in WKHHSHULHQFHRIFRQVXPHUV:HGQGWKHLPSURY-LQJSHUFHSWLRQVRIGQDQFLDOFLUFXPVWDQFHDUHKHDYLOskewed to high-income earners. Figure 6 highlights how stark this is for Russia, with a large proportion of consumers suggesting their circumstances are materially deteriorating. This contrasts with a far more broadly and evenly spread expression of optimism in a country such as China. Such a narrower UHHHFWLRQ RI LPSURYHPHQW EHWUDV DQ LQKHUHQWvulnerability in our view. Of course, these low- income consumers tend to be most exposed to volatility in the economic environment.Emerging Consumer Survey 2018 89 Emerging Consumer Survey 2018Emerging Consumer Scorecard2XU 6FRUHFDUG GUDZV WKH UHVSRQVHV WR WKH GYHquestions together in a very simple man
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