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CONSTRUCTION MARKET CONDITIONS 20181WT REVIEW OF AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION MARKET CONDITIONS 2018WT Partnership is one of Australias largest independent construction and cost management consultancies, spanning the infrastructure, property and construction sectors.We have been operating for nearly 70 years with more than 50 offices globally and over 1300 staff. We provide local knowledge, backed by a global perspective. WT advocates passionately for future-proofing our cities. We are working with governments, industry and the media to spark a national conversation about creating sustainable cities in the face of global population growth. We want to change how we plan, design and build our cities to ensure we meet the needs of our future generations. The commentary in this report provides high-level insight into current construction costs, and our forecast of future trends. With involvement in many of the major construction and infrastructure projects currently being built or planned in Australia, we have an intimate understanding of the impact on future market trends.The information in this report is based on reported statistical data, together with local insight of market trends drawn from each State and Territory. This report focuses on three key areas:1. Construction Activity2. Key Performing Sectors3. Tender Price EscalationEvery project and development has its own nuances, and we recommend contacting your local Director for project specific advice.WT REVIEW OF AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION MARKET CONDITIONS JANUARY 20182CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE PROPERTY SECTOR HAS LIFTED TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR YEARS continue to fuel construction, and our Victorian offices report a strong engineering sector and also forecast increasing activity in non-engineering sectors such as residential, health and education. In South East Queensland, the apartment building boom continued through 2017 and is only now showing signs of decline. Government spend on infrastructure in Queenland is expected to increase with the States budget focus on Cross River Rail, social and affordable housing, and schools. The Commonwealth Games, being held on the Gold Coast in April, has had an enormous impact on infrastructure development with projects such as Gold Coast Light Rail and construction of the games village, games venues, and a spike in tourism and accommodation building. Our Western Australia office reports an increased sense of stability and confidence in the State following the decline of mining and reports strong growth in retail development and an upswing in residential apartments. The Western Australian State Government has given the go-ahead on a number of significant road, rail, and port projects. Our South Australia office reports positive construction activity with numerous cranes in the city skyline and forecasts growth in various sectors including aged care, student accommodation, defence and education. Our Australian Capital Territory office also reports high confidence levels across all sectors and expects increased activity in the construction of commercial, retail, housing and aged care. Major LNG development and defence projects continue to underpin activity in the Northern Territory.The outlook in Tasmania is also very positive with a substantial number of major projects in the pipeline.Nationally, the growing demand from the infrastructure sector is pushing up costs of personnel, plant and equipment, and base materials such as aggregates, cement and steel. As resources become more stretched, these pressures create an industry wide challenge. Cost increases in the building sectors are tempered in competitive tender markets with main contractors and sub-contractors adjusting to the declining high rise multi-residential demand, and looking to other market sectors to secure work. Nationally, we expect Tender Price Escalation to be higher in the infrastructure sector with escalation rates generally around 4 to 5% compared to the non-infrastructure sector which we forecast to trend at around 3 to 4% in 2018. The infrastructure boom continues to underpin construction activity nationally with major projects underway in New South Wales and Victoria together with other States ramping up investment. The significant investment in road, rail, water, ports, airports and telecommunications, together with population growth and our ageing demographic, is fuelling growth in non-residential sectors such as education, health and aged care. The multi-residential property market is adjusting in response to the decline in foreign investment, particularly from China where Government imposed capital restrictions are discouraging overseas investment. With the housing boom easing, activity in the multi-residential sector is declining, however construction lags investment and there are still significant numbers of apartment towers to be completed in 2018. The focus in residential has shifted to high-end luxury apartments and the continued expansion of suburbs and regional townships. Social and affordable housing, urban regeneration and the emergence of the build-to-rent model are also expected to be prominent in the housing sector over the coming years. Entertainment, recreation, hotel and resort development is also experiencing strong growth and this is forecast to continue as oversees visitor numbers keep increasing, and the record spend by visitors in 2017 continues into 2018 and beyond. The latest ANZ/Property Council Survey found that confidence across the property sector has lifted to its highest level in four years. Ken Morrison, Chief Executive of the Property Council of Australia said “every jurisdiction is experiencing significant lifts in confidence. The mining states of Queensland and Western Australia are dusting themselves off with strong increases in the forward work schedules, and staffing level expectations”. Daniel Gradwell, ANZ Chief Economist said the survey provided further evidence that most of the mining-related adjustment is now behind us.New South Wales continues to experience record levels of investment in infrastructure and strong demand for residential, commercial and retail, and our Sydney office reports strong market activity and growth across several sectors. Government investment in projects such as CityLink and Tullamarine freeways, Melbourne Metro Rail, West Gate Tunnel and North East Link in Melbourne WT REVIEW OF AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION MARKET CONDITIONS 20183Substantial infrastructure development in New South Wales and Victoria is attracting resources away from the traditional building sectors and is impacting pricing levels. While Queensland and Western Australia are recovering from the collapse in mining, our offices in Brisbane and Perth report growing confidence in private development, in addition to the commencement of major infrastructure projects. South Australia is also experiencing an increase in construction activity across both the public and private sectors. Australian Capital Territory continues to perform well with our Canberra office reporting high confidence levels across all construction sectors. Like both Western Australia and Queensland, the Northern Territory suffered from the resources and mining collapse and is not expected to experience Tender Price Escalation at more than 2% during 2018. Our Hobart office reports increased construction activity in Tasmania, with plenty of work in the pipeline. Tender Price Escalation is now forecast to be around 3.5% pa over the coming years. 20182.0%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%3.25%4.0%2.75%NATIONAL SUMMARYNEW SOUTH WALES AND VICTORIA CONTINUE UNRIVALLED GROWTH IN BOTH CONSTRUCTION AND INFRASTRUCTURE SECTORS NATIONAL AVERAGE TENDER PRICE ESCALATIONThe diagram above provides a snapshot of our forecast Tender Price Escalation for each State and Territory in 2018. The national economy continues to gain momentum and recent surveys show growing optimism across the construction industry. Record levels of spend in infrastructure has triggered further investment in New South Wales in the residential, retail, amenities and commercial markets, while engineering construction continues to fuel price increases.Reflecting the high activity levels in New South Wales, we forecast escalation to continue trending at around 4.0%. With buoyant conditions prevailing in Victoria and ACT, we expect escalation levels to trend at around 3.0% and 3.25% respectively. Tasmania is experiencing increased construction activity and escalation is forecast to be in the order of 3.5%. Other regions are expected to have tender pricing levels escalate at about 2% to 3%. WT REVIEW OF AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION MARKET CONDITIONS 20184The RBA has continued to maintain the official cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The annual rate of inflation remained below the Reserve Banks target with CPI falling to 1.8% in the September quarter. Australias economy grew 0.6% last quarter and 2.8% over the past year, driven by increased activity in both investment in private business and investment in public infrastructure.NATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSChange-2-1012345678%RBA Interest ratesNational GDP (Quarterly Chain Volume Measure, Seasonally Adjusted) CPI Inflation225,219 450,427675,636 900,8441,126,053 351,2621,576,470 801,6792,026,887 252,0962,477,305 702,5132,927,722 3,152,930378,139 3,603,348828,556 4,053,765278,973 4,504,182729,391 4,954,5995,179,808 405,0165,630,225 855,4346,080,642 305,8516,531,059 756,2686,981,477 7,206,685431,894 7,657,102882,311 8,107,520332,728 8,557,937783,145 9,008,354233,563 9,458,771683,980 9,909,18810,134,397 359,60610,584,814 810,02311,035,231 260,44011,485,649 710,85711,936,066 12,161,274386,483 12,611,692836,900 13,062,109287,317 13,512,526737,735 13,962,94314,188,152 413,36014,638,569 863,77815,088,986 314,19515,539,403 764,61215,989,821 16,215,029440,238 16,665,446890,655 17,115,864341,072 17,566,281791,489 18,016,698241,907 18,467,115692,324 18,917,53219,142,741 367,95019,593,158 818,36720,043,575 268,78420,493,993 719,20120,944,410 21,169,618394,827 21,620,036845,244 22,070,453295,661 22,520,870746,079 22,971,28723,196,496 421,70423,646,913 872,12224,097,330 322,53924,547,747 772,95624,998,165 25,223,373448,582 25,673,790898,999 26,124,207349,416 26,574,625799,833 27,025,042250,250 27,475,459700,668 27,925,87628,151,085 376,29328,601,502 826,71129,051,919 277,12829,502,336 727,54529,952,754 30,177,962403,171 30,628,379853,588 31,078,797304,005 31,529,214754,422 31,979,63132,204,840 430,04832,655,257 880,46533,105,674 330,88333,556,091 781,30034,006,508 231,71734,456,926 682,13434,907,343 35,132,551357,760 35,582,969808,177 36,033,386258,594 36,483,803709,012 36,934,22037,159,429 384,63737,609,846 835,05538,060,263 285,47238,510,680 735,88938,961,098 39,186,306411,515 39,636,723861,932 40,087,141312,349 40,537,558762,766 40,987,97541,213,184 438,39241,663,601 888,80942,114,018 339,22742,564,435 789,64443,014,852 240,06143,465,270 690,47843,915,687 44,140,895366,104 44,591,313816,521 45,041,730266,938 45,492,147717,356 45,942,56446,167,773 392,98146,618,190 843,39947,068,607 293,81647,519,024 744,23347,969,442 48,194,650419,859 48,645,067870,276 49,095,485320,693 49,545,902771,110 49,996,31950,221,528 446,73650,671,945 897,15351,122,362 347,57151,572,779 797,98852,023,196 248,40552,473,614 698,82252,924,031 53,149,239374,448 53,599,657824,865 54,050,074275,282 54,500,491725,700 54,950,90855,176,117 401,32555,626,534 851,74356,076,951 302,16056,527,368 752,57756,977,786 57,202,994428,203 57,653,411878,620 58,103,829329,037 58,554,246779,454 59,004,663229,872 59,455,080680,289 59,905,49760,130,706 355,91560,581,123 806,33261,031,540 256,74961,481,958 707,16661,932,375 62,157,583382,792 62,608,001833,209 63,058,418283,626 63,508,835734,044 63,959,25264,184,461 409,66964,634,878 860,08765,085,295 310,50465,535,712 760,92165,986,130 66,211,338436,547 66,661,755886,964 67,112,173337,381 67,562,590787,798 68,013,007238,216 68,463,424688,633 68,913,84169,139,050 364,25969,589,467 814,67670,039,884 265,09370,490,302 715,51070,940,719 71,165,927391,136 71,616,345841,553 72,066,762291,970 72,517,179742,388 72,967,59673,192,805 418,01373,643,222 868,43174,093,639 318,84874,544,056 769,26574,994,474 75,219,682444,891 75,670,099895,308 76,120,517345,725 76,570,934796,142 77,021,351246,559 77,471,768696,977 77,922,18578,147,394 372,60278,597,811 823,02079,048,228 273,43779,498,645 723,85479,949,063 80,174,271399,480 80,624,688849,897 81,075,106300,314 81,525,523750,731 81,975,94082,201,149 426,35782,651,566 876,77483,101,983 327,19283,552,400 777,60984,002,817 228,02684,453,235 678,44384,903,652 85,128,860354,069 85,579,278804,486 86,029,695254,903 86,480,112705,321 86,930,52987,155,738 380,94687,606,155 831,36488,056,572 281,78188,506,989 732,19888,957,407 89,182,615407,824 89,633,032858,241 90,083,450308,658 90,533,867759,075 90,984,28491,209,493 434,70191,659,910 885,11892,110,327 335,53692,560,744 785,95393,011,161 236,37093,461,579 686,78793,911,996 94,137,204362,413 94,587,622812,830 95,038,039263,247 95,488,456713,665 95,938,87396,164,082 389,29096,614,499 839,70897,064,916 290,12597,515,333 740,54297,965,751 98,190,959416,168 98,641,376866,585 99,091,794317,002 99,542,211767,419 99,992,628100,217,837 ,443,045100,668,254 ,893,462101,118,671 ,343,880101,569,088 ,794,297102,019,505 ,244,714102,469,923 ,695,131102,920,340 103,145,548,370,757 103,595,966,821,174 104,046,383,271,591 104,496,800,722,009 104,947,217105,172,426 ,397,634105,622,843 ,848,052106,073,260 ,298,469106,523,677 ,748,886106,974,095 107,199,303,424,512 107,649,720,874,929 108,100,138,325,346 108,550,555,775,763 109,000,972,226,181 109,451,389,676,598 109,901,806110,127,015 ,352,224110,577,432 ,802,641111,027,849 ,253,058111,478,267 ,703,475111,928,684 112,153,892,379,101 112,604,310Dec 2006Sept 2017Source: RBA; ABS; Quarterly trend review on GDP, CPI inflation, RBA cash rate.WT REVIEW OF AUSTRALIAN CONSTRUCTION MARKET CONDITIONS 20185NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION INDICATORSABS data shows that the value of total construction work done in the first three quarters of 2017 was $160 billion compared to the previous year total of $141 billion, an increase of approximately 13%. Overall, this period has seen building works completed increase by 5% as conditions for multi-level apartments remain strong with construction companies continuing to progress through a backlog of work. Engineering work completed in this period (March to September) has increased 18% reflective of strong levels of investment in public infrastructure.The June to September quarter shows total construction work rose by 16%. Engineering work increased for the third straight quarter and most recently by a record margin of 33%, surpassing the mining and resources boom final quarter of 2012. However, this dramatic increase reflects the 90% surge in engineering work in Western Australia from the June quarter, following the impo
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