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WATERHEALTH ENERGYDISASTER RISK REDUCTION AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY 2019 STATE OF CLIMATE SERVICES WEATHER CLIMATE WATER WMO-No. 1242WMO-No. 1242 World Meteorological Organization, 2019 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chair, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P .O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 81 17 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Email: publicationswmo.int ISBN 978-92-63-11242-2 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. This publication has been issued without formal editing. Lead Authors and Contributors (in alphabetical order): Report Editorial Board (WMO): Johannes Cullmann, Maxx Dilley, Jonathan Fowler, Veronica F . Grasso, Pavel Kabat, Filipe Lcio, Clare Nullis, Markus Repnik. Adaptation Fund (AF): Saliha Dobardzic, Cristina G. Dengel, Alyssa Maria Gomes CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS): James Hansen Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO): Michele Bernardi (external expert), Mariko Fujisawa, Ana M. Heureux, Hideki Kanamaru, Lev Neretin, Oscar Rojas Green Climate Fund (GCF): Joseph Intsiful Global Environment Facility (GEF): Aloke Barnwal, Fareeha Iqbal World Bank Group (WBG) and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR): Daniel Kull, Anna-Maria Bogdanova World Food Programme (WFP): Katiuscia Fara, Giorgia Pergolini World Meteorological Organization (WMO): Valentin Aich, Assia Alexieva, Omar Baddour, Amir Delju, Estelle De Coning, Rose Devillier, Simon Eggleston, Ilaria Gallo, Abdoulaye Harou, Peer Hechler, Anahit Hovsepyan, Lisa-Anne Jepsen, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Nakiete Msemo, Patrick Parrish, Carolin Richter, Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Michel Rixen, Paolo Ruti, Lorena Santamaria, Robert Stefanski, Jason Watkins, William Wright. Project coordination (GFCS): Filipe Lcio, Veronica F . Grasso, Jon Mark Walls. Graphic design: Melinda Posey. Cover photo: Agriculture in Cambodia Public Domain4 MessagePetteri Taalas 6 Executive Summary 9 Data and Methods 10 Trends 11 Need 12 Value 14 Global Status 16 Delivery 18 Global Product Status 20 The Centres 21 Climate Services Information System 22 Regional StatusAfricaAsiaSouth AmericaNorth America, Central America and the CaribbeanSouth-West PacificEurope 34 Investment 35 Case StudiesGlobalEuropeAsiaWest AfricaSouth America 40 Gaps 41 Recommendations 42 Acronyms 43 References Contents Photo: Joshua Newton4 Photo: Rafa Prada5 “The global temperature has already risen to 1 C above pre-industrial levels. The time left to achieve commitments under the Paris Agreement to remain within 2 C is quickly running out requiring immediate action. The Global Framework for Climate Services was created to provide the scientific basis for adaptation. Climate services investments overall have a cost benefit ratio of 10 to one. The provision of climate services at country level relies on a cascading global-regional-national Climate Information System operated by WMO. More coherent financing is needed specifically to complete this system. Financing invested holistically in the WMO cascading operational system provides a return on investment of 80 to one.” PETTERI TAALAS SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION Photo: Daniel Klein Photo: UN Photo/Mark Garten6 Executive Summary In 2018, the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement at the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) called on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through its Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to regularly report on the state of climate services with a view to “facilitating the development and application of methodologies for assessing adaptation needs” (Decision 11/CMA.1). This inaugural 2019 State of Climate Services Report focuses on agriculture and food security. It reviews countries priorities on climate services for adaptation, noting that agriculture is one of the highest, and identifies priority capacity needs. It examines capacity gaps across six components of the climate services value chain including: governance, basic systems, user interface, capacity development, provision and application of climate services, and monitoring and evaluation. The report provides case studies, examples and explanations as to the role of climate information and services to support agriculture in the face of climate variability and change, assesses gaps and makes recommendations. This analysis helps highlight both challenges and opportunities for climate service efforts aimed at promoting climate resilient development and adaptation action. Building on the work developed in collaboration with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and development partners, the report identifies four areas for action in enhancing climate services for effective adaptation in agriculture: (a) Africa and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are facing the largest capacity gaps. In particular, both regions are experiencing increasing challenges regarding the density of the observing network and reporting frequency of observations essential for generating products and data needed by the sector. (b) Across all regions, monitoring and evaluation of societal outcomes and benefits of science-based climate services for adaptation action stand out as one of the weakest areas in the climate services value chain. (c) Coordination in the delivery of climate services for agriculture both within and across local, national, regional and international institutions and operational systems remains challenging. Lack of data sharing is resulting in sub-optimal availability and use of climate information and services. (d) While investments have increased substantially over the past decade, both more and better investments are needed to ensure the provision of high-quality climate information services for adaptation action in agriculture. Better investments include investments that support the national-regional-global integrated hydrometeorological system on which all countries depend in a more holistic, less piecemeal manner as well as investments in overcoming the “last mile” barriers impeding the full use and benefit of climate information and services. The successful provision of climate services with proven, demonstrated benefits needs to be operationalized globally. Evidence suggests that the benefits of investing in the global-regional-national hydrometeorological system needed to accomplish this outweigh the costs by about 80 to one (Kull et al. 2016). The report puts forward six strategic recommendations addressing five major areas in need of improvement: (a) Fit-for-purpose financial support to operationalize and scale up climate services by enhancing the global-regional-national operational hydrometeorological system to support country- level agrometeorological service delivery, especially in Africa and SIDS. (b) Systematic observations as fundamental for the provision of climate services; (c) An enhanced climate science basis for priority climate actions; (d) Addressing the “last mile” barrier through multi- stakeholder governance and partnerships; (e) Systematic monitoring and evaluation of socio- economic benefits associated with climate services. Information and analysis for this report has been provided by the WMO, the Adaptation Fund, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Green Climate Fund, the Global Environment Facility, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the World Bank, and the World Food Programme.7 “We have learnt a lot and now know how to plan our planting and harvesting according to weather and climate conditions. Before we relied on knowledge passed down from our parents. But the weather is different from what it used to be and so traditional knowledge is no longer sufficient.” CLIMATE FIELD SCHOOL PARTICIPANT Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) Photo: Simon Fanger8 Climate information and associated services have demonstrably led to improved agricultural and food security outcomes and benefits for stakeholders in the sector. The capacity to deliver and access these services is highly uneven across regions and countries, however. The challenge is to strengthen the global-regional-national hydrometeorological system needed to operationalize and deliver these products and services at country level, particularly in developing countries, so that everybody benefits. Photo: Joao Marcelo-Marques9 As of 2019, 183 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have been submitted to the UNFCCC. Thirteen countries have also submitted National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) that identify medium-long-term adaptation needs and strategies and programmes to address those needs. For this report, WMO has analysed NDCs and NAPs to identify needs for climate services to support adaptation specifically in the agriculture and food security sector. WMO Members assess their capacity for providing climate services and documenting associated socio-economic outcomes and benefits through a checklist that addresses functional capacities across the climate services value chain. Functional capacities assessed by the checklist are organized into six groups: Governance, Basic Systems, the User Interface, Capacity Development, Provision and Application of Climate Services, and Monitoring and Evaluation of socio-economic benefits. Many of these functional capacities constitute “basic”, “essential”, “full” or “advanced” functionalities. The percentages of “yes” and “no” responses to the checklist questions in each group for each capacity level provide a basis for assessing country capacities and needs in each area, and for categorizing the overall level of service provided by the Member according to WMO criteria. This data is currently available for 95 out of 193 WMO Member countries. The regional profiles in this report strongly reflect the profiles of the countries which have provided data, which is important for interpretation of the results. Additional sources used to collect information for the report included the WMO Country Profile Database, GFCS inventory of National Frameworks for Climate Services, information from WMO Global and Regional centres and Regional Climate Outlook Forums, WMO Commission for Agricultural Meteorology surveys, the World Agrometeorological Information Service 1and NMHS websites. Case studies have been provided by WMO, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Global Environment Facility, the World Bank and the World Food Programme. They highlight how climate services contribute to improved outcomes in the sector. Information on projects and investments involving climate services has been provided by the Adaptation Fund, the Green Climate Fund, the Global Environment Facility, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery of the World Bank. Data and Methods _ 1 wamis10 A Key to Addressing Hunger Climate variability and extremes are a major contributor to the recent rise in global hunger. Climate change hits the most food-insecure people the hardest. Over 80% of the worlds food insecure live in degraded environments exposed to recurrent extreme events (storms, floods, drought). In a warming world, extreme climate conditions will become more frequent and severe. A recent Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) report estimated that the number of food insecure people in the world had declined from 2005 to 2014. However, the trend reversed in 2014. From 20142017, the number of undernourished or food insecure people grew from between 37 million122 million to more than 800 million. The reason for this growth centered principally on climate shocks (GCA, 2019). This disturbing trend challenges the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG) on Zero Hunger by 2030. A world that is 2 C warmer is likely to have 189 million more food insecure people. This is an increase of around 20% compared with today 2(WFP , 2017). FAO estimates that over 500 million smallholder farms, producing more than 80% of the worlds food in terms of value, and 750 million extremely poor people working in agriculture usually as smallholder family farmers are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. 0 20 40 60 80 100 11 7 Food Security NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS A Critical Priority A 2019 analysis of NDCs by WMO and FAO found that the majority of countries highlighted agriculture, food security and water as the top priority sectors for climate change adaptation. In the area of agriculture and food security, 85% of countries (100 / 117) identified “climate services” as being a foundational element for planning and decision making. Trends 85% identified climate services as “top” priority At present, 20-80% of the inter-annual variability of crop yields is associated with weather phenomena and 5-10% of national agricultural production losses are associated with climate variability (FAO, 2019). In addition, agriculture suffers 26% of the damage and loss during climate-related disasters in developing countries. In parallel with these trends, the global demand for food will increase by 50% and, in the absence of ambitious climate action, yields may decline by up to 30% by 2050 (GCA, 2019). _ 2 1.wfp/publications/2017-2-and-4-degrees-infographic Agriculture and Photo: Ivan Bandura Disaster Risk Reduction
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