资源描述
MARKETVIEW Solid retail trade growth driven by Black Friday sales buoys retail sector Australia Retail, Q4 2020 Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 1 Figure 1: 2020 Change in Retail Trade Volumes Source: ABS, CBRE Research, Q4 2020. KEY POINTS Retail sales grew by 10.0% y-o-y (3mma) in the 12 months to December 2020. Leasing deal volumes remained constrained but incentives have risen and net face rents have softened slightly. Consumer confidence has shown a strong recovery from its trough in April, now in positive territory. This has been driven by stronger than expected employment outcomes. Investment activity in 2020 totalled $4.88b, down on the $7.8b recorded in 2019. Yields held steady in Q4 for prime CBD, totalling 35bps yield expansion since Q4 2019. Yields expanded just 1bp for regional shopping centres, totalling 256ps since Q4 2019. AUSTRALIA RETAIL -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Household Goods Other Food Total Clothing Department Stores Cafes MARKETVIEW INCENTIVES QUICK TO RISE, BUT CAN BE QUICK TO FALL RETURN TO OFFICES SPARKS OPTIMISM IN CBD OCCUPIERS. DEAL VOLUMES REMAIN CONSTRAINED 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 2 AUSTRALIA RETAIL Figure 2: Rolling Annual Retail Real Estate Transaction Volume Relative to Trend Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. Q4 2020 CBRE Research -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Differen ce fr om Tren d ($ m) MARKETVIEW HOUSEHOLD SPENDING INCREASES AS BLACK FRIDAY DRIVES SALES NET FACE RENTS STABLE AFTER CHALLENGING YEAR Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 3 AUSTRALIA RETAIL Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. CBD Retail Legend R - Rents Y - Yields WA Q420 q-o-q y-o-y R $3,348 Stable -12.3% Y 6.38% Stable Stable QLD Q420 q-o-q y-o-y R $3,380 Stable -11.7% Y 4.88% Stable -6bps NSW Q420 q-o-q y-o-y R $14,200 Stable -5.2% Y 4.5% Stable +38bps ACT Q420 q-o-q y-o-y R $692* Stable 2.5% Y 6.5%* Stable Stable VIC Q420 q-o-q y-o-y R $8,150 Stable -18.5% Y 3.75% Stable +25bps SA Q420 q-o-q y-o-y R $3,125 Stable Stable Y 4.88% Stable -6bps Figure 3: Super Prime CBD retail key metrics *Prime used for ACT SALES NUMBERS FALL AS YIELDS EXPAND ACROSS AUSTRALIA MARKETVIEW Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 4 AUSTRALIA RETAIL Figure 5: CBD Retail Supply by State Figure 4: Australia Retail Sales and Super Prime CBD Rents Index Source: ABS, CBRE Research, Q4 2020. CBD Retail Dashboard Figure 7: Australian Average CBD Retail Yield Figure 6: CBD Retail Transactions by State Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. Figure 8: CBD Retail Buyer Profile Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020.Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 202 1 202 2 202 3 Reta il Supp ly ( sq m) WA VIC SA QLD NSW ACT -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 200 0 200 2 200 4 200 6 200 8 201 0 201 2 201 4 201 6 201 8 202 0 Retail Growth CBD Super Prime Rent Annual Growth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 Yiel d (%) Prime Secondary Super Prime 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sale s Volume ($m) Domestic Foreign 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 Sale s Vo lume ($m) Greater Adelaide Greater Brisbane Greater Canberra Greater Melbourne Greater Perth Greater Sydney MARKETVIEW 5 AUSTRALIA RETAIL Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Figure 9: Regional Centre Key Metrics Shopping Centres Legend R - Net Face Rents Y - Yields WA q-o-q y-o-y R $1,403 - -7.5% Y 5.93% - +43bps QLD q-o-q y-o-y R $1,565 -0% -8.3% Y 5.50% - +25bps NSW q-o-q y-o-y R $1,790 - -15.1% Y 5.17% +5bps +21bps ACT q-o-q y-o-y R $1,259 - - Y 5.56% +12bps +16bps VIC q-o-q y-o-y R $1,385 - -18.5% Y 5.39% +3bps +17bps SA q-o-q y-o-y R $1,467 - - Y 6.28% - +61bps FLEXIBLE CENTRES WILL BE ATTRACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING SEEKING OPPORTUNITIES IN 2021 Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | MARKETVIEW Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 6 AUSTRALIA RETAIL Figure 11: Shopping Centre Supply by Type Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Figure 10: Retail Sales and Shopping Centre Rents Index Source: ABS, CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Shopping Centres Dashboard Figure 13: Average National Shopping Centre Yield Figure 12: Shopping Centre Transactions by Type Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Figure 14: Shopping Centre Buyer Profile Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 201 8 201 9 202 0 202 1 202 2 202 3 Reta il Supp ly ( sqm) Sub Regional Regional Neighbourhood 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 Yiel ds ( %) Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood 90 105 120 135 150 165 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 Inde x 10 0=2 008 Neighbourhood Regional Sub-Regional Retail Sales 0 1,750 3,500 5,250 7,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sales Volu me ($m ) Domestic Foreign 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 Sale s Vo lume ($m) Neighbourhood Regional Sub Regional MARKETVIEW AUSTRALIA RETAIL Figure 15: Large Format Retail Key Metrics Large Format Retail Legend R - Rents Y - Yields WA Q420 Q-O-Q Y-O-Y R 208 Stable -4.6% Y 6.88% Stable -13bps QLD Q420 Q-O-Q Y-O-Y R 275 -1.8% -8.5% Y 7.14% Stable -16bps NSW Q420 Q-O-Q Y-O-Y R 612 +21.2% Stable Y 6.08% -13bps Stable ACT Q420 Q-O-Q Y-O-Y R 150 Stable -9.7% Y 7.59% Stable Stable VIC Q420 Q-O-Q Y-O-Y R 275 Stable Stable Y 6.71% Stable +4bps SA Q420 Q-O-Q Y-O-Y R 226 +4.7% -2.8% Y 7.35% -4bps -6bps 7 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 LFR SPENDING CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM STRONG TRANSACTION VOLUMES TO FINISH 2020 Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | MARKETVIEW $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 Annual Sa les ($m) ACT NSW QLD SA VIC WA AUSTRALIA RETAIL Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: ABS, CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Large Format Retail Dashboard Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: REIA Mar-20, CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Figure 20: Annual Capital Value Growth Prime Large Format Retail Figure 16: Large Format Rents & Household Goods Sales (y-o-y) Figure 17: Large Format Retail Supply by State Figure 18: Large Format Retail Transactions by State Figure 19: National Large Format Retail Prime Yield by State 8Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 Gro wth Retail Growth LFR Annual Growth - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Supp ly ( sqm) ACT NSW QLD SA VIC WA 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 Yiel d (%) Greater Adelaide Greater Brisbane Greater Canberra Greater Melbourne Greater Perth Greater Sydney -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Greater Adelaide Greater Brisbane Greater Canberra Greater Melbourne Greater Perth Greater Sydney Australia MARKETVIEW Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. AUSTRALIA RETAIL CONTACTS CBRE OFFICES
展开阅读全文