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MARKETVIEW Rents Continue to Fall as Vacancy Rates Rise Nationwide Forecast TOKYO VACANCY RATES RISE ABOVE 1% FOR ALL GRADES The All-Grade vacancy rate rose 0.6 points q-o-q to 1.5% in Q4 2020. Vacancies resulting from occupiers relocating to newly completed premises are taking time to lease up. As in Q3, partial cancellations and downsizing relocations are also being seen. While some vacancies were filled due to company mergers or building redevelopments, overall demand remained subdued. Exacerbating the situation has been the governments second declaration of a state of emergency for Greater Tokyo including Tokyo and the three neighboring prefectures on January 7th. This was further expanded on January 13th to apply to seven other prefectures, placing a total of 11 prefectures under a state of emergency. While the restrictions put in place are less rigorous than those implemented during the previous state of emergency (in April 2020), it is possible that there may be delays in some of the viewings and contract signings. Rents fell q-o-q for all grades, with Grade A rents edging down by 2.7%, larger decline than other grades. Cancellations and contractions in 1 2021 CBRE, Inc. | JAPAN OFFICE Q4 2020 CBRE Research Figure 1: Grade A Average Assumed Achievable Rent floorspace have been relatively frequent in small- to-mid scale buildings since Q2 2020. In Q4 2020, this trend gradually began to be more evident in larger properties, leading to asking rents being lowered in several Grade A buildings. A progressive weakening of demand should serve to accelerate the trend for landlords to lower rents to attract tenants. CBRE forecasts Grade A rents to decline by 7.7% over the next 12 months. *JCER Forecast 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Tokyo Osaka Nagoya (JPY/tsubo) Source: CBRE, Q4 2020 GDP Growth Q4 3.2%(*Forecast) Y-o-Y Japan Office, Q4 2020 Tokyo Grade A Rent Q4 2.7% Q-o-Q Tokyo Grade A Vacancy Rate Q4 +0.3pts Q-o-Q BOJ Tankan DI (All Enterprises) Q4 3pts Q-o-QMARKETVIEW OSAKA ALL-GRADE RENTS FALL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVEN YEARS The All-Grade vacancy rate increased by 0.3 points q-o-q to 1.5% in Q4 2020. Since Q2 2020, available units have arisen from cancellations resulting from the economic impact of the pandemic. Many new leases signed this quarter involved a downsizing of floorspace via relocations or consolidations of multiple locations into single premises for the purposes of cutting costs. In contrast, few expansions or moves to open new offices have been observed. That said, there where a few cases where available vacancies in city central have triggered relocations from suburban areas. Rents fell q-o-q for all grades, with the declines for Grade B and All-Grade rents being the first since Q4 2013. Grade A rents had fallen in Q2 2020 before recovering in Q3 2020 but declined a g a i nt h i sq u a r t e r .W i t hd e m a n ds e tt oc o n t i n u e to weaken, the rental decline may accelerate. CBRE forecasts Grade A rents to fall by 0.8% over the next 12 months. NAGOYA VACANCY RATES CONTINUE TO RISE T h eAl l -G r a d ev a c a ncyr a t er o s eby0 . 1p o i n tq-o-q to 1.9% in Q4 2020 as the period saw increasing time required to fill vacancies. At the same time, however, some vacancies were filled by new office openings, albeit these are short-term lease, relating to administration of COVID-19 government aid packages and subsidies. The establishment of new satellite offices as well as relocations for location upgrade were also observed, all of which kept the rise in vacancy relatively modest. In comparison to Q2 and Q3, tenant relocation demand has recovered somewhat. However, tenants in some of the large-scale buildings are recalibrating their office floorspace needs. It is therefore likely that vacancy rates will continue to rise. Grade A rents fell 0.2% q-o-q to JPY 28,050 per tsubo, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline. Owners of buildings which are finding it challenging to fill their vacancies are becoming more accommodative for the prospective occupiers, including longer rent-free periods. Over the next 12 months, Grade A rents are projected to fall by 1.1%. REGIONAL CITIES (SAPPORO/SENDAI/SAITAMA/YOKOHAMA/ KANAZAWA/KYOTO/KOBE/TAKAMATSU/ HIROSHIMA/FUKUOKA) SLOWER PACE OF TAKE-UP The All-Grade vacancy rate rose in nine of the 10 regional cities surveyed by CBRE, with Sapporo the only exception. Demand for large units r e m a i n ss l u g g i s hi nm o s tr e g i o n a lc i t i e s ,b u t there are signs of a recovery in larger markets such as Sapporo, Yokohama and Fukuoka. Call centres, in particular, continue to be a stable source of demand. At the same time, however, many companies remain cautious on capital expenditure, while others continue to evaluate t h ec o n s e q u e n c e so fam a j o ro v e r h a u lo ft h e working styles of their employees. As a result, in most cities an increasing number of available units are taking longer to fill than was the case prior to the pandemic. 2021 CBRE, Inc. | 2 JAPAN OFFICE Q4 2020 CBRE ResearchMARKETVIEW Tokyo Grade A Tokyo Grade A-Minus Tokyo Grade B Tokyo All-Grade Osaka Grade A Osaka Grade B Osaka All-Grade Nagoya Grade A Nagoya Grade B Nagoya All-Grade Yokohama Saitama Sapporo Sendai Kanazawa Kyoto Kobe Hiroshima Takamatsu Fukuoka Figure 2: Vacancy Rate in 13 Cities (REGIONAL CITIES CONTD) T h eq u a r t e rs a ws o m ef i r m sp u ti np l a c ec o n c r e t e moves to scale back their physical presence in regional cities. Other corporations have consolidated their bases of operation within each cities, reducing the overall floorspace used. This trend is likely to become more prominent over the next few quarters. With the nation continuing to face a slow economic recovery, it is anticipated that more time will be required before office relocation demand returns to pre-pandemic levels. Vacancy rates are projected to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. RENTS FALL IN SEVEN OF 10 CITIES Of the 10 cities surveyed by CBRE, All-Grade rents rose q-o-q in Sapporo, Sendai and Kanazawa, as some of the prime buildings or those in prime locations raised their asking rents in response to relatively quick take-ups. However, rents in other seven cities fell q-o-q. With demand still generally weak, vacancies are likely to continue to trend upward. As a result, rents are projected to continue a slow but steady decline. 2021 CBRE, Inc. | 3 JAPAN OFFICE Q4 2020 CBRE Research Figure 3: Average Assumed Achievable Rent in 13 Cities (JPY/tsubo) Source: CBRE, Q 2020 Source: CBRE, Q4 2020 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 Q4 2009 - Q4 2020 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Q4 2009 - Q4 2020 Q4 2019 Q4 2020MARKETVIEW 4 JAPAN OFFICE Figure 4: Market Summary Vacancy Rate (%) Assumed Achievable Rent (JPY/tsubo) Q4 2019 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q-o-Q (pts) Y-o-Y (pts) Q4 2019 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q-o-Q (%) Y-o-Y (%) Tokyo Grade A All 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.7 38,800 38,700 37,650 2.7 3.0 Marunouchi/Otemachi 1.7 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.8 48,100 48,250 47,700 1.1 0.8 Grade A-Minus All 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.6 27,050 26,950 26,350 2.2 2.6 Grade B All 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.7 23,750 23,700 23,250 1.9 2.1 All Grade All 0.7 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.8 23,150 23,270 22,870 1.7 1.2 Central 5 Wards 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.6 1.0 24,390 24,600 24,170 1.7 0.9 Marunouchi/Otemachi 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 42,400 42,320 41,390 2.2 2.4 Kanda/Iidabashi 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.8 21,510 22,090 21,490 2.7 0.1 Yaesu/Nihonbashi 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.6 24,080 24,230 23,850 1.6 1.0 Roppongi/Akasaka 0.2 1.4 3.8 2.4 3.6 27,250 27,350 26,900 1.6 1.3 Toranomon/Shiodome 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.8 27,380 27,590 27,290 1.1 0.3 Shinjuku 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.5 24,440 24,440 24,070 1.5 1.5 Shibuya/Ebisu 0.5 2.0 3.3 1.3 2.8 27,190 26,560 26,150 1.5 3.8 Shinagawa/Tamachi 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.7 22,340 22,540 22,460 0.4 0.5 Osaki 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.6 20,050 20,590 20,100 2.4 0.2 Osaka Grade A All 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.8 25,950 26,450 26,400 0.2 1.7 Grade B All 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.9 14,750 15,450 15,350 0.6 4.1 All Grade All 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.3 0.7 14,140 14,710 14,600 0.7 3.3 Umeda 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 22,790 23,630 23,540 0.4 3.3 Dojima 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.6 18,600 19,360 19,000 1.9 2.2 Nakanoshima 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.5 21,080 21,450 21,450 0.0 1.8 Yodoyabashi 0.1 1.7 2.3 0.6 2.2 16,730 17,720 17,590 0.7 5.1 Honmachi 1.0 2.1 2.0 0.1 1.0 13,740 14,460 14,400 0.4 4.8 Shin-Osaka 0.9 2.1 2.3 0.2 1.4 14,520 15,480 15,360 0.8 5.8 Nagoya Grade A All 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.2 27,800 28,100 28,050 0.2 0.9 Grade B All 0.7 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.9 13,900 14,250 14,200 0.4 2.2 All Grade All 0.7 1.8 1.9 0.1 1.2 13,690 13,930 13,890 0.3 1.5 Meieki 0.5 2.1 2.4 0.3 1.9 17,970 18,550 18,610 0.3 3.6 Fushimi/Marunouchi 0.7 1.9 1.9 0.0 1.2 12,650 12,770 12,720 0.4 0.6 Sakae 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.3 13,260 13,390 13,390 0.0 1.0 Nagoya-Higashi 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.3 9,960 10,000 10,000 0.0 0.4 Yokohama All Grade All 0.8 2.0 2.1 0.1 1.3 15,970 16,560 16,520 0.2 3.4 Around Yokohama Station 0.9 4.5 4.7 0.2 3.8 15,060 15,560 15,480 0.5 2.8 Minato-mirai 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 19,210 20,010 20,130 0.6 4.8 Saitama All Grade 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 18,820 19,390 19,380 0.1 3.0 Sapporo All Grade 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 14,720 15,160 15,240 0.5 3.5 Sendai All Grade 1.8 2.0 2.3 0.3 0.5 11,250 11,400 11,460 0.5 1.9 Kanazawa All Grade 4.8 4.5 5.1 0.6 0.3 10,850 10,950 10,970 0.2 1.1 Kyoto All Grade 0.5 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.9 15,610 16,390 16,180 1.3 3.7 Kobe All Grade 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.2 0.5 11,800 11,910 11,880 0.3 0.7 Hiroshima All Grade 1.9 1.9 3.5 1.6 1.6 11,780 11,920 11,880 0.3 0.8 Takamatsu All Grade 5.7 7.6 8.7 1.1 3.0 9,470 9,450 9,350 1.1 1.3 Fukuoka All Grade 0.7 1.2 1.7 0.5 1.0 16,170 16,460 16,350 0.7 1.1 Source: CBRE, Q4 2020 2021 CBRE, Inc. | Q4 2020 CBRE ResearchMARKETVIEW Disclaimer: All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication. BUILDING GRADE DEFINITION All-Grade Grade A Grade A-Minus Grade B Location Tokyo: Central 5 Wards* Osaka, Nagoya: Office area Office area in Tokyo 23 Wards Office area in Tokyo 23 Wards Office area in Osaka & Nagoya Office area in 13 cities nationwide set by CBRE Size GFA: 10,000 tsubo or more NLA: 6,500 tsubo or more Typical floor plate: Greater than 500 tsubo* GFA: 7,000 tsubo or more NLA: 4,500 tsubo or more Typical floor plate: Greater than 250 tsubo (except Grade A) GFA: 2,000-7,000 tsubo Typical floor plate: Greater than 200 tsubo (except Grade A & GradeA-Minus) GFA: 2,000 tsubo or more (except Grade A) GFA: 1,000 tsubo or more Age Less than 11 years Buildings satisfying the 1981 anti-seismic standards FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS JAPAN INVESTMENT MARKETVIEW, PLEASE CONTACT JAPAN RESEARCH Hiroshi Okubo Head of Research hiroshi.okubocbre.co.jp Yuji Iwama Associate director yuji.iwamacbre.co.jp Yoshitaka Igarashi Associate director yoshitaka.igarashicbre.co.jp Hisari Asai Senior Analyst hisari.asaicbre.co.jp Sayuri Kaneko Analyst sayuri.kanekocbre.co.jp JAPAN OFFICE *Central 5 Wards: Chiyoda Ward, Chuo Ward, Minato Ward, Shinjuku Ward, Shibuya Ward *350 tsubo for Osaka and Nagoya TERMS AND DEFINITIONS Space Measurement 1tsubo=3.3058 square meters=35.58 square feet Surveyed Buildings Office buildings for lease located in office markets in 13 major cities nationwide, with gross floor area of 1,000 tsubo or more,and compliant with the new earthquake resistance standards. Surveyed Period Quarterly Vacancy rate: (1) End of March (2) End of June (3) End of September (4) End of December Quarterly Assumed achievable rents: (1) End of March (2) End of June (3) End of September (4) End of December Annual Vacancy rate: End of December each year Assumed achievable rents: January to December each year Vacancy Rate Vacancies are those that are ready to receive tenants at time of survey Assumed Achievable Rent Assumed achievable rent of floorplate (including common area maintenance fee) Floor Space of New Supply Leasing floor space of buildings completed during each period Net Absorption Difference between occupied floor space (floor space used by tenants) in a given period and that of the previous period Grade A Samples Tokyo 91, Osaka 28 Nagoya 11 (as of Q4 2020) To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at CBRE OFFICES IN JAPAN TOKYO Meiji Yasuda Seimei Building 2-1-1 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo SHIBA PARK Shiba Park Building B 2-4-1 Shibakoen, Minato-ku, Tokyo OSAKA Grand Front Osaka 4-20, Ofuka-cho, Kita-ku, Osaka SAPPORO Hokkaido Building 4-1 Kitanijonishi, Chuo-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido SENDAI Sendai Mark One 1-2-3 Chuo, Aoba-ku, Sendai-shi, Miyagi YOKOHAMA Yokohama ST Building 1-11-15 Kitasaiwai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa KANAZAWA Aube II Building 5-177 Kuratsuki, Kanazawa-shi, Ishikawa NAGOYA Miyuki Building 3-20-27 Nishiki, Naka-ku, Nagoya-shi, Aichi HIROSHIMA Shishinyo Building 3-17 Fukuromachi, Naka-ku, Hiroshima-shi, Hiroshima FUKUOKA Fukuoka Center Building 2-2-1 Hakata-Ekimae, Hakata-ku, Fukuoka-shi, Fukuoka
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