资源描述
CBRE ResearchAsia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 2Executive Summary04Real estate remains an attractive asset classKey trends to watch12Respondents profile and survey methodology0522Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 3Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 4EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Investor appetite for Asia Pacific real estate remains robust in 2018, driven by the twin objectives of securing stable income streams and asset class diversification. While concerns about potential global and local economic shocks weakened for the second consecutive year, investors are more concerned about higher property prices. The high price of core assets and search for higher returns continues to drive investors towards core-plus/good secondary and value-added assets. This year marked the first time that value-added has overtaken prime core as the most preferred asset. Investor focus is broadening away from the traditional preferred markets of Shanghai, Sydney and Tokyo. Several cities are attracting attention, led by Singapore, Melbourne, Brisbane and regional cities in China and Japan. The survey found narrower return expectations among different strategies, pointing to more competition for assets offering high single digit unlevered returns. The industrial and logistics sector is seeing a substantial increase in investor interest, driven by structural changes including e-commerce growth and the development of modern logistics facilities into an institutional investment product. Investor demand for multi-family owing to high housing prices and declining home ownership affordability across the region. With occupiers increasingly demanding flexible leasing terms and space usage, many investors hold the view that co-working is the future of office work environment and an amenity for tenants. Most investors believe that up to 20% is the ideal proportion of co-working space in a single office building to enhance its value. Although Asian outbound investment continues to eclipse previous records and Chinese investors still comprise the largest source of capital, Chinese outbound investment is expected to slow this year.REAL ESTATE REMAINS AN ATTRACTIVE ASSET CLASSAsia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 60%20%40%60%80%100%2016 2017 2018% of respondentsBuy more About the same Buy lessSTRONG INVESTOR APPETITE FOR REAL ESTATEInvestor appetite for Asia Pacific real estate remains robust. An overwhelming 92% of respondents indicate that their investment activity in 2018 will be the same or greater compared to 2017.Real estate fund managers display stronger intentions to purchase more this year, a finding supported by CBRE Researchs The Next Wave of Capital Deployment report published in January 2018, which estimated that approximately US$53 billion of real estate private equity capital will be deployed into Asia Pacific real estate by 2020.Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2016, 2017 & 2018Figure 1: Purchasing activity intentions over the past three years80% 84%92%Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 7DRIVEN BY STABLE INCOME STREAMS AND RISK DIVERSIFICATIONInvestor demand for real estate is being motivated by the objective of securing stable income streams and asset class diversification.In comparison with other asset classes including equities, bonds, direct real estate and real estate securities, direct real estate has provided more stable returns over the past decade while also being less volatile. This, together with the higher volatility in equities and bonds witnessed since the beginning of this year, is strengthening investor appetite for direct real estate investment. As interest rates gradually move into the upward cycle, there will be limited room for further yield compression to drive value growth. For the second consecutive year, less investors selected capital value growth as the major motivation to invest in real estate.Figure 2: Main motivation for investing in real estate compared to last year Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2017 & 2018Stability of income stream26%19%Asset class diversification27%3%Capital value growth18%26%20182017Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 8INVESTORS CONCERNS SHIFT TOWARDS PROPERTY PRICINGThe improved global and regional economic outlook is fostering a more optimistic attitude among investors. Several export-orientated economies in the region including China, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore recorded better-than-expected economic growth last year thanks to the recovery of global trade. Concern about potential global and local economic shocks weakened for the second consecutive year. In contrast, investors are more concerned about property prices. Rising interest rates are expected to place pressure on asset prices, especially now that property yields have already moved below pre-crisis levels and the gap between property yields and long-term government bond yields has narrowed further.Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2017 & 2018Figure 3: Greatest threat to property markets 2017 - 20180% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%Overbuilding leading to excess supplyGlobal political instabilityFaster than expected rises in interest ratesProperty is overpricedGlobal and local economic shock% of respondents20182017Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 9STOCK IS AVAILABLE BUT PRICING IS HARD TO JUSTIFYThe limited availability of product and asset pricing have traditionally been the major obstacles facing real estate investors. This year, investors displayed greater concern about high asset prices amid what is still an intensely competitive market for prime commercial real estate in Asia Pacific.The investor pool continues to broaden, and now consists of traditional players such as property companies, REITs and real estate funds, along with institutional capital and high net worth investors looking for asset diversification. Concern about the availability of stock weakened this year, with more investors indicating that they are willing to sell. However, investors still find it hard to justify current pricing. CBRE Research foresees that slower rental growth expected in 2018, together with the expectation of higher interest rates, could prompt investors to adopt a less aggressive stance towards underwriting.Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2016, 2017 & 2018Figure 4: Biggest obstacle to acquiring assets over the past three years 201638%35%44%16%24%18%2017 2018Asset Pricing Asset Availability1 Institutional capital includes insurance companies, pension funds and sovereign wealth fundsAsia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 10INVESTORS FOCUS ON CORE-PLUS AND VALUE-ADDED The high price of core assets and search for higher returns continues to drive investors towards core-plus/good secondary, which entails investing in prime assets in non-core areas or non-prime assets in core areas, and value-added assets.This years survey marked the first time that value-added has overtaken core as the most preferred asset. Investors are exploring different ways to create value through asset enhancement, such as incorporating retail elements or rent-paying amenities into office buildings. Other strategies include upgrading through interior and exterior renovation and conversion to alternative use.Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2016, 2017 & 2018Figure 5: Preferred investment strategy 2016 - 2018Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 11STRONGER INTEREST IN SINGAPORE, MELBOURNE AND REGIONAL CITIES IN JAPAN AND CHINAJapan remains the top destination for investment, with Tokyo ranking as the most preferred city. Investors are also displaying strong interest in regional cities such as Osaka and Fukuoka. Both cities offer solid fundamentals as well as higher entry yields.Melbourne eclipsed Sydney as the most attractive city in Australia, a result due to its stronger rental growth supported by tight vacancy. Brisbane received stronger interest from cross-border investors considering counter cyclical plays, with office rents recently bottoming-out after a five-year correction and expected to recover over the next two years.The office market recovery helped propel Singapore to among the top three destinations for cross-border investors for the first time since the survey began in 2014. As Grade A assets are scarce and aggressively priced, investors are focusing on office properties with upgrading potential as Grade A rents will continue to grow. Shanghai continues to be the most desired market in China, with transaction volume rising to an historical high in 2017. Tier II cities with strong fundamentals such as Hangzhou, Nanjing and Chengdu are also gaining more traction from investors.Figure 6: Top ten preferred cities for investment (cross-border* only)Note: *Cross border refers to respondents domiciled in the different country as the most attractive destination selected Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2018KEY TRENDS TO WATCHAsia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 13#1: NARROWER RETURN EXPECTATIONS AMONG DIFFERENT STRATEGIESThis years survey asked investors to estimate total unlevered returns available in the Asia Pacific real estate market. The results indicated narrower return expectations among different strategies.Core / core-plus investors estimate most available returns at 3-6%, while value-added investors expect 6-9%. Opportunistic investors anticipate 6-12%. The low yield environment and overlapping investment strategies mean that these expectations are below those that were held previously.CBRE Research advises investors to consider that there will be more competition for assets offering a return profile of around 6-9%. High-risk profile investors are seeking value-added assets as a low risk opportunistic strategy to achieve target returns.Note: Unlevered total returns (average annual over 3 years)Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2018Figure 10: Investors views of total unlevered total returns available in Asia Pacific1-3% 3-6% 6-9% 12%+9-12%Core/Core-plusValue-addedOpportunisticLegendMost availableLess availableAsia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 140%10%20%30%40%Office Industrial & Logistics Retail Multifamily Hotels% of respondents2016 2017 2018#2: A THEMATIC SECTOR FOCUSThe industrial and logistics sector is seeing an increase in investor interest, largely at the expense of retail. This is being driven by structural changes including e-commerce growth and the development of modern logistics facilities into an institutional investment product. Investor appetite for multi-family is rising as high housing prices create strong and stable demand for rental accommodation. Japan has long been the sole destination for multi-family investment in Asia Pacific, but China is beginning to offer considerable opportunities, supported by government initiatives to develop the rental housing market. Australia is also a potential destination for the multi-family sector, with fundamentals appearing attractive for both domestic and international investors.Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2016, 2017 & 2018Figure 11: Preferred sectors for investment 2016 - 2018E-commerce growth driving interest in logistics assetsHigh housing prices creating demand for rental apartmentsAsia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 15HIGH HOUSING PRICES DRIVE DEMAND FOR MULTI-FAMILY The jump in popularity of multi-family is being driven by declining homeownership affordability. Surging property prices are outstripping wage growth and making it difficult for Asia Pacific millennials to accumulate the necessary capital to buy their own home. 63% of respondents to CBRE Researchs Asia Pacific Millennials Survey published in 2016 said that they were forced to rent homes due to being unable to buy them.Median housing prices in tier I cities in Asia Pacific are more than 10 times greater than average household incomes. The higher the price multiple to income, the more likely it is for millennials to either live at home with their parents or rent accommodation.Some investors are already exploring rental apartment opportunities in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong, as these markets have a high housing price to income ratio compared to other tier-1 cities in the region. Target end-users are typically young professionals who have been working for two to three years.Figure 12: Millennials attitudes toward renting propertySource: Demographia, Q3 2015, MSCI, December 2015, Asia Pacific Millennials Survey, CBRE Research, October 201663%agreed that this generation is forced to rent as buying a property is out of reach for mostFigure 13: Median housing price to annual household income ratioAsia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2018 2018 CBRE, INC. CBRE RESEARCH | 16INTEREST IN NICHE SECTORS IS RISING Investor demand for niche sectors is growing further due to rapid structural changes, relatively higher initial yields and comparative immunity to real estate cycles.Demographic changes are piquing investors interest in retirement living, healthcare and student accommodation. Ageing populations in Japan and China will create more demand for retirement living and trigger demand for healthcare. Singapore is another potential market for healthcare due to its status as a medical tourism hub in Southeast Asia. Opportunities to invest in student accommodation lie mainly in Australia.Interest in data centres increased significantly in this years survey, amid rapid growth in data usage. Opportunities to acquire data centres mainly exist in markets with large populations such as China, India and Japan, while Singapore holds considerable appeal as a regional focal point for Southeast Asia.Real estate debt is generating stronger interest among investors after weakening in last years survey. The coming years will see significant debt refinancing pressure, particularly in China, where US$75 billion of corporate bonds will need to be refinanced by listed Chinese real estate companies between 2018-2020. Source: Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, March 2016, 2017 & 2018Figure 14: Top five alternative sectors among investors0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%Student LivingReal EstateDebtData CentreHealthcareRetirementLiving2018 2017 2016Major count
展开阅读全文