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Brought to you by Informa Tech Information Classification: General Publication date: 15 December 2020 Author: Pamela Clark-Dickson 5G Messaging Poised to Deliver Ecosystem Innovation 5G Messaging Poised to Deliver Ecosystem Innovation 01 2020 Omdia. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited. Contents Summary 2 Introducing 5G messaging 5 The business case for 5G messaging 13 The 5G messaging platform 16 5G messaging in action: China Mobile 17 Appendix 19 5G Messaging Poised to Deliver Ecosystem Innovation 02 2020 Omdia. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited. Summary In brief 5G has the potential to usher in a new age of telco communications. With 5G messaging, telcos have an opportunity to blend legacy messaging services with innovative business models and refreshed service delivery platforms. Even though messaging apps are popular and have eaten into telcos SMS traffic and revenues, SMS has remained resilient and must be supported in 5G, both to deliver continuity for consumer and enterprise messaging and for the Internet of Things (IoT). 5G messaging provides telcos the opportunity to bring SMS into the 5G era. Meanwhile, 5G rich messaging is positioned as a more compelling communications channel than SMS for consumers and brands, enabling richer interactions including rich messaging, rich cards and carousels, chatbots, and payments. Finally, IoT traffic and revenues are forecast to grow to 2025 and messaging will continue to play a key role in enabling connectivity between things and between things and people. Realizing the full potential of 5G messaging will require a strong ecosystem with committed partners across the value chain. Omdia view Telco messaging may not be as compelling a 5G consumer service as cloud gaming or augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR), but SMS will be a key consumer service for some years to come, and telcos will need to support it in 5G. Part of SMS ongoing appeal to consumers, and perhaps more importantly to enterprises, is its universal availability across devices and networks (now including 5G devices and networks), its reliability, and its relatively low cost as a communications channel. Telcos will also need to continue to support SMS in 5G because application-to-person (A2P) SMS is set to remain a high-value service for telcos, generating $103 billion in revenues by 2025. But 5G messaging is not just about SMS its also about rich messaging, which is realized in the GSM Associations Rich Communications Service (RCS) Universal Profile (UP) 2.5. Rich messaging does have its challenges notably, achieving reach and interconnectivity. It has been around since 2008 and still has less than 100 telco deployments, few of which are interconnected. Theres no guarantee that 5G will change this, even though some of the worlds largest telcos and telco groups that have launched 5G including Vodafone, Orange, Deutsche Telekom (which includes T-Mobile USA), China Mobile, and AT&T have also previously launched RCS services. Brands too appreciate that RCS Business Messaging (RBM) allows them to have a richer messaging interaction with their customers, and the ecosystem of SMS aggregators, connectivity service providers, hosting providers, and mobile engagement platforms is also lining up behind it. The GSMA has also mandated that all 5G devices must support rich messaging natively and is positioning it as the 5G messaging service upgrade from SMS. And then there is the IoT market, where IoT devices currently only support application-originated SMS, meaning that there are limited use cases representing comparatively low market value. 5G for 5G Messaging Poised to Deliver Ecosystem Innovation 03 2020 Omdia. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited. IoT messaging will continue to enable interactions between machines and consumers and between machines and applications. The IoT market is set to be a key vertical industry for 5G, and while most IoT connectivity will be over data connections, 5G for IoT messaging will play a key role as a communications channel, potentially driving much higher revenue. Telcos should consider the benefits of developing a coherent strategy for 5G messaging that encapsulates how they roll out telco-based messaging services across their 5G networks and devices and how these services map to the consumer, enterprise, and connected devices markets. But its not something that telcos can do in isolation, because their decisions will have implications for other players in the value chain and because working with partners can help unlock innovation in the development of new services and business models. Just as an ecosystem has evolved around person- to-person (P2P) and A2P SMS, so too will an ecosystem develop around 5G messaging likely containing many of the same players but also providing an opportunity for new partners to participate. Key messages 5G messaging offers telcos the opportunity in three key areas to consolidate their messaging services, generate ongoing revenues, and innovate. These are 5G SMS (for consumers), 5G rich messaging (for consumers and businesses), and 5G for IoT messaging (connected devices/things). The pace of 5G launches and subscriber adoption is quickening. By end-2020, Omdia forecasts that there will be 236 million 5G subscribers globally, rising to over 3 billion by 2025. By end- 2Q20, more than 75 telcos had launched 5G networks. This represents a huge addressable market for 5G messaging. 5G messaging complies with all relevant industry standards. Building a 5G messaging service on hardware and software that meets industry standards provides a solid foundation for the delivery of a reliable, high-quality, future-proof, telco-grade universal messaging service. 5G rich messaging has the most potential for telcos to enhance their messaging services for consumers, businesses, and things. Rich messaging is the upgrade path from SMS to a richer form of messaging service, like that provided by apps such as Weixin, WhatsApp, iMessage, and Facebook Messenger. However, rich messaging is positioned as a universal and interoperable telco service (like SMS), and it will enable fallback to SMS or MMS. One of the more interesting elements of 5G messaging is its use as an upgrade path for A2P SMS. RCS Messaging-as-a-Platform (MaaP) and RCS Business Messaging (RBM or A2P RCS) draw on the Universal Profile 2.4 and 2.5 specifications to enable businesses to offer their customers branded two-way interactions with features such as chatbots, rich media, payments, and authentication/verification services. Telcos can develop revenue streams and business models around 5G messaging. These include continued support of existing messaging services for consumers over 5G, delivering existing services with a vastly enhanced user experience (such as 5G rich messaging), or the 5G Messaging Poised to Deliver Ecosystem Innovation 04 2020 Omdia. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited. development of completely new 5G-based messaging services for the consumer, enterprise, and service provider markets. 5G messaging devices and networks will enable backwards compatibility while also being future-proof. 5G SMS will interwork with legacy devices, including feature phones and smartphones as well as new 5G devices. Meanwhile, telcos will reap the benefits of being able to utilize a cloud-based network function virtualization (NFV) architecture for 5G message centers (5GMCs), delivering lower costs, and increasing flexibility and scalability. China Mobile shows whats possible for 5G messaging. China Mobile has played a key role in advancing 5G messaging in China. In May 2020 the telco was among the first in the world to deploy a 5GMC, which has since amassed over 100 million active users. It has also helped develop 5G rich messaging services for brands, enabling over 300 precommercial and commercial chatbots. In addition, it is building an ecosystem around 5G rich messaging that includes developers, handset manufacturers, and brands. Recommendations Telcos should play a key role in the building of the 5G messaging ecosystem. This means working with other service providers, vendors, and application developers to create 5G messaging-based services and develop new business models. Telcos will need to continue to support SMS in their 5G networks. While messaging apps have achieved significant penetration globally and are almost at saturation point in some countries, SMS remains the only universally available messaging service on mobile devices and therefore retains value for consumers. The messaging ecosystem must focus on A2P SMS and/or 5G rich messaging to drive messaging revenues over 5G networks. A2P SMS remains an important service for enterprises to engage with consumers. It is attractive to enterprises because it is universally available, cheap, reliable, and the center of an already established ecosystem, which can also be tapped for 5G rich messaging/RCS Business Messaging (RBM). The IoT market for 5G messaging should not be ignored. Massive IoT (MIoT) looks set to be a significant industry vertical for 5G, with use cases spanning smart cities, consumer electronics, and transport and logistics, among others. Messaging is a key connectivity service for MIoT that telcos should capitalize on where they can. 5G Messaging Poised to Deliver Ecosystem Innovation 05 2020 Omdia. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited. Introducing 5G messaging The role of telco messaging in a 5G world 5G, the next generation of global mobile networks, will enable telcos to supersize their wireless data connectivity. It will deliver much faster speeds at much lower latency and at lower per-bit costs compared with 4G. 5G wont be cheap for telcos to deploy they need to acquire spectrum across multiple bands and build new core networks. But the benefits are potentially substantial in terms of the step change in the quality and the range of bandwidth-intensive, time-lag-sensitive services that telcos will be able to offer consumers and enterprise users. Consumers can expect considerably enhanced experiences in services such as AR/VR, cloud gaming, and high-definition/ultra-high- definition (HD/UHD) content. Meanwhile telcos and enterprises are expected to deploy 5G initially across the smart cities and manufacturing industry verticals, with private networks and network slicing emerging as key use cases. Much of the focus and excitement around 5G is about the super-sized networks and super-sexy apps and services mentioned above. But telcos deploying 5G networks will still need to support legacy voice and messaging services and ensure backwards compatibility for these services with their 4G, 3G, and even 2G networks (where these still operate). Importantly, 5G provides the opportunity for telcos to consolidate their messaging services, and to innovate, in three key areas: 5G SMS (for consumers), 5G rich messaging (for consumers and businesses), and 5G for IoT messaging (connected devices/things). In much the same way that ecosystems grew around legacy messaging services, especially A2P SMS, so will they grow around 5G messaging. Telcos are well-positioned to play a key role in the building of 5G messaging ecosystems, working with service providers, vendors, and application developers to create new 5G messaging-based services and develop new business models. In fact, it is incumbent on telcos to do so, since the alternative is to eventually completely cede their P2P and A2P messaging traffic and revenues to messaging apps, which represent the strongest threat to the telco messaging business. 5G network launches gathering pace globally To put the 5G market in context: by end-2Q20, more than 75 telcos had deployed 5G in 40 countries and in all seven regions (see Figure 1), and there were another 20 launches of commercial fixed wireless access (FWA) 5G. Most of the activity is in Asia Pacific and Europe, where telcos in the UK, Switzerland, South Korea, and China alongside those in the US - have been trailblazers for 5G. 5G Messaging Poised to Deliver Ecosystem Innovation 06 2020 Omdia. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited. Figure 1: Global 5G launches, by region, 2Q20 Source: Omdia 5G mobile subscriptions grow strongly, buoyed by industry engagement From a standing start in 2019, 5G mobile subscriptions increased dramatically in 2020 (see Figure 2). Asia and Oceania are leading the way, primarily due to strong growth in mainland China, where all three telcos launched 5G in November 2019, and where Omdia forecasts 196.2 million 5G mobile subscribers by end-2020 (83.1% of total global subscribers). Support for 5G from telcos, vendors, and the Chinese government has underpinned the growth of a vibrant ecosystem around the technology, delivering the coverage and compelling services required for user adoption. Africa, 3 Asia Pacific, 20 Eastern Europe, 8 Middle East, 14 Latin America, 2 North America, 7 Western Europe, 22 2020 Omdia 5G Messaging Poised to Deliver Ecosystem Innovation 07 2020 Omdia. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited. Figure 2: Global 5G mobile subscriptions, 201925 Source: Omdia Telco messaging remains resilient against messaging apps Telcos will need to continue to support SMS in their 5G networks, since it has proved remarkably resilient against messaging apps. While messaging apps have achieved significant penetration globally and are almost at saturation point in some countries, SMS remains the only universally available messaging service on mobile devices. Also, in many countries, telcos have removed the price barrier for SMS, offering plans including unlimited or large bundles of SMS. This encourages consumers to continue using P2P SMS. A2P SMS remains an important service for enterprises to engage with consumers. It is attractive to enterprises because it is universally available, cheap, and reliable. There is an established ecosystem for A2P SMS, which reduces the barriers to entry for enterprises that have not previously used SMS as a customer engagement channel. Also, communications-platform-as-a-service (CPaaS) providers have made it easier for enterprises to add A2P SMS to their customer engagement platforms by offering programmable APIs for messaging. Omdia forecasts that total global SMS traffic will reach 8.3 trillion messages by 2025 (see Figure 3), buoyed by strong growth in A2P SMS over the forecast period, even as P2P SMS traffic declines gradually after a COVID-19 spike in 2020. A2P SMS traffic will grow from 2.3 trillion messages in 2020, generating $79 billion in revenues, to 3.2 trillion messages by 2025, generating $103 billion. Slower than expected take-up of messaging apps as a customer engagement channel and increased telco focus on shutting down gray routes will help contribute to the sustained growth in A2P SMS traffic and revenues. P2P SMS tra
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