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Copyright 2020 GSM Association 5G energy efficiencies Green is the new blackThe GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA Published November 2020 This report was authored by GSMA Intelligence withsupport from ZTE. Authors Tim Hatt, Head of Research Emanuel Kolta, Senior Analyst GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long- term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought- leading research reports across a range of industry topics. Contents Executive summary 2 1 The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 4 2 How networks consume energy 8 3 Site, RAN and network-wide innovations 12 4 Outlook 182 Executive summary 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Executive summary The imperative for change The impetus for reductions in energy emissions in the telecoms sector is anchored in the global fight to combat and mitigate climate change, as enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Urgency has grown markedly over the last two years as governments seek to garner private sector commitments towards the central objective of keeping a global temperature rise this century to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This implies net zero for most countries by 2050.5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Executive summary 3 In telecoms, a number of industry-specific factors rooted in countering rising network costs have further shaped efficiency efforts. The mix effect of LTE and 5G upgrades in emerging and advanced economies (led by the US and China) will result in these technologies accounting for 60% and 20% of the global mobile connections base respectively by 2025. The impact of this shift will be a continued rise in mobile data traffic, estimated at 6.4GB per user per month in 2019 and forecast to grow threefold on a per-user basis over the next five years. Combined with the rising costs of spectrum, capital investment and ongoing RAN maintenance/upgrades, energy-saving measures in network operations are necessary rather than nice to have. 5G New Radio (NR) offers a significant energy-efficiency improvement per gigabyte over previous generations of mobility. However, new 5G use cases and the adoption of mmWave will require more sites and antennas. This leads to the prospect of a more efficient network that could paradoxically result in higher emissions without active intervention. The way forward Alongside technical improvements to reduce energy leakage as power passes through the network phases, a range of measures are available to improve efficiency holistically across the network. These include the following: user equipment and devices energy consumption and extended battery life of end-user terminals, mostly handsets site-level innovations new lithium-ion battery solutions, rectifiers, liquid cooling, air-con systems and simplification of site set-up RAN and network equipment innovations AI-driven software focussed on maximising sleep states to avoid unnecessary energy consumption in the RAN network planning and optimisation including the sunsetting of legacy 2G and 3G networks and long- term purchasing contracts for renewable energy. The big picture for operators of ultimately reducing emissions to net zero depends on wrapping energy- efficient technologies into a broader green strategy that encompasses all facets of operations. In an effort to put teeth behind public commitments, many large operators have implemented KPIs and reporting targets in line with the independent Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). Emissions reduction goals have been set in a phased approach to first reach carbon-neutral status before the more difficult and ambitious objective of net zero. Verizon and Vodafone have set targets to reach net zero by 2040. Telefnica has committed to this status for its top four operating markets by 2030. The milestones en route to these goals are, however, front loaded, with Verizon and Vodafone aiming for 50% reductions in electricity usage by 2025 and Telefnica down 70% by 2030. Our analysis indicates that progress has generally been solid so far, enabled by advances in the renewable energy markets. Despite this progress, reporting targets are not yet in place in a majority of operators. There are also a number of persistent barriers, including emissions data availability and tracking mechanisms, lack of partnerships with energy sector producers and, in some cases, outdated organisational structures that augur for more cross-team working and less hierarchy. The data aspect is of particular importance; we hope this research will help raise awareness of the issue. The construction of comprehensive data pipelines with associated analytics would help uncover costly anomalies. Deploying smart sensors at various points of the network would help measure equipment-level energy consumption, battery status, active hours of generators, fuel levels, outside and indoor temperatures and air conditioning. Operators would need to build their comprehensive and real-time data repository, but we believe this would be money well spent. With reliable measurements and data pipelines established, big data applications can monitor and adjust network power a key ability for the software-defined networks set to be the default option in the 5G era.4 The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES 1 The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era Drivers for increasing efficiency and reducing emissions The impetus for reductions in energy emissions in the telecoms sector is anchored in the global fight to combat and mitigate climate change, as enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Urgency has grown markedly over the last two years as governments seek to garner private sector commitments towards the central objective of keeping a global temperature rise this century to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This implies net zero for most countries by 2050. In telecoms, efficiency efforts have been further shaped by a number of industry-specific factors rooted in countering rising network costs. The mix effect of LTE and 5G upgrades in emerging and advanced economies (led by the US and China) will result in these technologies accounting for 60% and 20% of the global mobile connections base respectively by 2025. The proximate impact of this shift will be a continued rise in mobile data traffic, estimated at 6.4 GB per user, per month in 2019 and forecast to grow threefold on a per-user basis over the next five years. Combined with the rising costs of spectrum, capital investment and ongoing RAN maintenance/upgrades, this means energy-saving measures in network operations are necessary rather than nice to haveThe imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 5 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Climate change 1 What is the Paris Agreement? What is the Paris Agreement? UNFCCC The response to climate change and, specifically, alignment with the central resolution of the Paris Agreement has catalysed a wave of industry action in support of broader national commitments. The agreement stipulates that worldwide efforts should limit the rise in global average temperatures to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels this century, though with a preferred objective of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The scientific consensus and evidence in support of man-made warming has now been established over an extended period of time; surface temperatures have been on a steady upward path relative to the historic baseline, with 14 of the 15 hottest years on record occurring since 2000 (see Figure 1). As of October 2020, 189 countries (out of 197 signatories) had ratified the agreement a 96% conversion rate. Most of those yet to ratify are nations with political instability and/or outsized economic dependence on oil; their participation would not have a significant influence on the outcome, though. The US is a major exception. Its formal exit is planned for November. A full assessment of the Paris Agreement resolutions is out of scope for this research but details can be found via the UN. 1 Ultimately, achievement of the goals depends on individual nation states setting and implementing their own emissions reduction targets. Governments have generally co-opted private sector involvement to help achieve national objectives, rather than purely using legislation to mandate curbs in emissions. This strategy confers buy-in and has so far proven an effective stimulant for the rapid development of new technologies and a large-scale shift in energy use away from fossil fuels and towards renewables. The telecoms sector has emerged as a vocal supporter of proactive emissions reductions plans. This is enshrined in an industry- wide commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and bolstered by a growing group of operators that have embraced carbon reduction efforts as a core business objective, with strict reporting targets. Those of Vodafone, Telefnica and Verizon are used as examples in the rest of this section. Figure 1 Global carbon emissions and long-term temperature variation *Surface temperature for a given year relative to the long-term global average from 1951 to 1980. Values above zero indicate rising temperatures relative to the long-term average, while values below zero indicate the opposite. Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Global Carbon Project, Nasa Tpuvn6 The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Network costs and performance Irrespective of climate change, impetus for energy- saving measures from telecoms operators has grown as a result of sustained increases in network costs in a low revenue-growth environment. The telco business model is based on network scale. In times of growing revenues, margins expand as the largely fixed cost base is monetised (positive operating leverage), unless the operator is sub-scale. This is broadly what happened in the 2G and 3G eras in the 1990s and 2000s when mobile phones were still new to people and subscriber growth consequently steadily rose. However, in periods of low or negative revenue growth, fixed costs are exposed, with resulting pressures on cashflow and longer term investments. Figure 2 shows Verizons financial ratios, but the effect can be observed across the sector over the last five years; revenue growth rates pre-Covid-19 have on average remained in low single digits. Without even showing the revenue growth line, it is clear that as network capital investments have increased to fund LTE and early 5G rollouts, free cash flow margins have been mostly preserved through reductions in personnel and other costs. Figure 2 Network cost and investment evolution (Verizon example) Note: free cashflow calculated as EBITDA minus capex and expressed as a share of total revenue. Source: GSMA Intelligence, Verizon Given the industry imperative to invest in networks, capex is followed more closely than the costs of ongoing maintenance (opex). However, this is changing with the rapid adoption and incorporation of energy- efficient technologies. Both offer material savings in opex. Network opex tends to account for around 25% of the operator cost base, or 10% of revenue. Over 90% of network costs are spent on energy, consisting mostly of fuel and electricity consumption (see Figure3). Most of this spend powers the RAN, with data centres and fibre transport accounting for a smaller share. The good news is that the shift from fossil fuels to renewables has started to feed through to opex savings, as have the phased retirements of legacy 2G 7 6 5The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 7 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES and 3G networks that are less energy efficient than LTE or 5G NR standards. Looking ahead, however, as LTE and 5G progressively account for larger shares of the overall global user base, data traffic rises are inevitable and with this comes the pressure on energy consumption. There is no one method of increasing energy efficiency or reducing power usage. Instead a mixed approach is generally being used, comprising renewables, AI-driven network sleep states, more efficient batteries and decentralised site deployments with compute power pushed towards the edge. The results will feed through over a period of years. Figure 3 The vast majority of network costs are spent on energy (fuel and power) consumption. which will only rise as LTE and 5G account for a larger share of the base Source: GSMA Intelligence8 How networks consume energy 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES 2 How networks consume energy Past transitions to new wireless standards have entailed a significant improvement in the cornerstone metric of energy efficiency: kilowatt hours per gigabyte (kWh/GB). Though 5G NR also offers a significant energy-efficiency improvement per gigabyte over previous technologies, new 5G use cases and the adoption of mmWave will require more sites and antennas. This leads to the prospect of a more efficient network that could paradoxically result in higher emissions, without active intervention.How networks consume energy 9 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Energy consumption in running a network One way to visualise a network is as a linear progression of stages, or phases, across which energy flows to provide power to base station sites, radio access nodes and backhaul links. Figure 4 outlines this journey, starting with energy sourcing from the grid and moving through to site and equipment consumption. Figure 4 End-to-end energy loss from grid to the RAN Source: GSMA Intelligence Phase 1: energy sourcing There are significant daily fluctuations in energy demand, while electricity supply is relatively static. This makes the price of industrial electricity vary on an hourly basis. Daytime energy prices in peak hours can be significantly higher than off-p
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