资源描述
Trends 2. Npr, In China, a cashless trend is taking hold with mobile payment. Alec Dafferner PartnerTHE PREDICTIONS RECAP OF GP BULLHOUNDS 2017 Predictions Before we dig into 2018, here is a brief recap of last years predictions and how we saw their development throughout the year. The AR/VR market has seen continued growth with a heightened focus on software development. 2017 saw the launch of key AR software development platforms including Apples ARKit, Googles ARCore and Facebooks AR ecosystem. The launch of these platforms will help drive the development and adoption of AR content. However, while the AR market has made great strides, the VR market is not meeting expectations and we are seeing less activity in the sector, resulting in the closure of some leading VR content studios including CCP Games. As predicted, the eSports industry grew rapidly in 2017: the market is expected to reach $941.4m by 2018, paving the way for a billion-dollar market. (1) Major brands including NBC, ESPN, and Coca-Cola increasingly view the industry as a vital channel for reaching millennials. While these brands have sponsored major finals, other notable partnerships include YouTubes investment in Faceit and Sonys partnership with tournament organizer ESL to power PlayStation Vue. New eSports leagues have also thrived, with Blizzards Overwatch attracting 12 global sponsors at a costly $20m each per franchise spot. Artificial intelligence continued its rapid growth in 2017 through increased fundraising, acquisitions and widespread adoption. The first half of 2017 saw total investment in AI firms hit a record $22.9bn. Key deals included Ciscos acquisition of MindMeld for $125m, and Facebooks acquisition of Masquerade and Zurich Eye, and Microsofts acquisition of conversational AI startup Maluuba. AI-powered Virtual Personal Assistants also continued to develop. Nuance Communications released a vitual assistant targeted at patients and healthcare providers in September of this year. Further, Amazon and Microsoft partnered to allow communication between Alexa and Cortana. As expected, cord cutting became even more popular in 2017. Younger audiences preference for over-the-top (OTT) services is continuing to drive the rise in cord cutting. Another key driver is the consumption of user-generated content spurring marketers to focus on digital media campaigns. As predicted, more cable companies have started to develop their own OTT services to retain market share. Verizon plans to launch an OTT service soon, Disney is launching an ESPN OTT package in 2018, and A+E Networks, Viacom, Discovery, Scripps Networks Interactive and AMC Networks entered a partnership to launch a streaming bundle of cable programming. 6 1. THE NEXT GENERATION Of Artificial Intelligence 4. THE DAWN OF VR/AR Content 3. E-SPORTS TAKES Center Stage 2. CORDLESS CONTENT Anywhere and Everywhere Sources: 1. Statista: eSports market revenue worldwide from 2012 to 2020 Inaccurate prediction Accurate prediction Partially accurate predictionGP BULLHOUND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2018 7 Consumer acceptance has continued to pose a barrier to broader adoption of autonomous vehicles in 2017 one recent MIT study showed that 48% of consumers would never purchase a car that completely drives itself. We also predicted that there would need to be greater clarity in the regulatory framework to spur adoption of driverless technology. In the US, Congress has made progress towards creating clearer regulations and is currently in the process of passing the first federal law governing autonomous vehicles. We continue to believe in the potential benefits of autonomous vehicles but we are not quite there yet. While blockchain has shown its ability to transform several industries, our view on the consolidation of P2P lending companies remains unrealized. Blockchain technologies have impacted key industries including finance, legal, and IoT, with notable examples of companies offering blockchain solutions in 2017 including PwCs Vulcan blockchain, Microsofts Project Bletchley and IBMs blockchain solution. Although the pace of P2P lending consolidation has not happened this year, the struggles faced by leaders like Lending Club, On Deck, and Prosper suggest consolidation, primarily by banks, is not far off. PayPals acquisition of Swift Capital is an early sign of the things to come. US and Asian social media offerings have converged in 2017. Facebook for one launched a payments platform, deployed messenger bots to automate conversations, and expanded its marketplace to include housing rentals and used car listings it is now approaching the full-service platform prominent in Asian social media. The year also saw notable deals and launches by Asian social media giants, hinting at Western expansion and replication of American competitors. Line, for instance, launched an AI platform including a voice-powered assistant Clova akin to Amazon Echo or Google Home and increased its stake in Snow, an Asian Snapchat clone, to 50%. Our prediction that 2017 would see a growth in investment in European SaaS companies was proven true, with $3bn invested in the first half of the year compared to only $1.7 billion during the same period in 2016. Furthermore, European SaaS companies proved attractive acquisition targets with the top five transactions in the first half of 2017 accounting for a combined value of 3.1 billion. Globally, there has been continued consolidation with notable deals including Ciscos acquisition of Viptela for $610m, Oracles acquisition of Moat for $850m, and CA Technologies acquisition of Veracode for $614m. 6. FINTECH Shifting Tectonic Plates 5. DRIVERLESS CARS STILL Require Human Direction 8. SaaS SOFTWARE Reigning Supreme 7. SOCIAL MEDIA Transformation 2017 has proven to be a strong year for European tech companies, with the rise of many new titans. Europe currently has 57 unicorns with two of those, Spotify and Zalando, reaching valuations of over $10bn in 2017. As explained in GP Bullhounds recently published “Titans of Tech report, European tech companies are proving highly competitive due to mobility of talent, more sustainable salary costs, and better capital efficiency. 10. YEAR OF THE European Decacorn Inaccurate prediction Accurate prediction Partially accurate prediction 2017 was a tough year for tech IPOs in the US and high volumes of public debuts masked a number of rocky performances. Highly anticipated listings from Uber and Airbnb did not materialize and the marquee IPO of 2017 Snap has struggled significantly since going public. Nonetheless, the volume of IPOs has risen in US, Europe, and Asia with four unicorns going public in the second quarter alone, equal to the equivalent volume in 2015 and 2016. Solid IPOs from CarGurus, MongoDB, and Qudian in the closing months of 2017 also indicate favorable conditions for the future. 9. TECH IPOS SET For Take OffTHE PREDICTIONS TECHNOLOGY Predictions 2018 Over the past ten years, GP Bullhounds Predictions report has established a reputation as an industry-leading analysis of the trends and innovations shaping the global technology sector. What follows are the ten trends we believe will define tech in 2018. While mobile activity has been growing steadily in China, the past year has seen the biggest increase in the use of mobile in the country yet. 2018 is set to be mobiles peak year, accelerating to overtake TV usage within the next two years. Following a number of hacking scandals related to national elections, 2018 will see tech firms coming under greater scrutiny for the content they allow on their platforms. With giants such as Facebook already increasing their security budget, this trend will shape the relationship between political bodies and technology in the coming year. 1. AN UNEASY FUTURE For Politics and Technology 3. MOBILE TRUMPS TV In China As machine learning perfects language recognition, translation technology will see a boost in user adoption in 2018. Using neural networking, computers will be able to understand not just words but also grammar, resulting in a more natural, flowing translation and booming consumer usage. As recurring data breaches continue to break the news and users worry about the safety of their personal information, security will see widespread consumer adoption in the coming year. The rise of connected devices in the home will only add fuel to the fire of consumer concern for digital security. 4. TRANSLATION TECHNOLOGY Takes Hold 2. CYBER SECURITY Exposure and Adoption 8GP BULLHOUND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2018 9 6. INTERNATIONAL LABOR Arbitrage Flourishes As the cost of living in key tech hubs soars and competition for talent becoming increasingly tough, the new year will see smaller tech companies looking to base their operations in up and coming tech hubs around the world. 8. INDUSTRY 4.0 As factories embrace the benefits of artificial intelligence and robotics, the fourth industrial revolution has finally taken hold of the manufacturing and production sector. These technologies will see increasing adoption in the coming year, resulting in a dramatic increase in quality and productivity. 10. AUGMENTED REALITY Adapts for Early Adoption The last six months have seen significant developments in augmented reality, with tech giants such as Apple and Google entering the field. As smartphones become increasingly compatible with the technology, 2018 will be ARs biggest year yet as more consumers adopt the technology. 5. OVER AND OUT Email Traditional workplace communications will be increasingly replaced by instant and more informal messaging tools. 2018 will be the year the volume of corporate emails sent in the US will cease to grow and begin to decline as instant messaging platforms such as Slack continue to gain traction. 9. REGULATORS RULE ON Boom and Bust of ICOs The use of blockchain and Initial Coin Offerings has exploded in 2017. We predict regulatory agencies will intervene in 2018 and create definitive guidelines and regulations on the capital raising method. However, innovation in ICOs will not lose momentum and the volume of transactions will continue to grow. 7. THE UNLIKELY COMEBACK Of the Software Suite As the corporate world continues to embrace digital transformation, businesses seeking to optimize their product offering will return to spending on large IT platforms. 2018 will see growth in the adoption of software suites and increasing competition amongst leaders in the field.
展开阅读全文