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Copyright 2018 GSM Association North America The Mobile Economy 2018The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with over 350 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces industry-leading events such as Mobile World Congress, Mobile World Congress Shanghai, Mobile World Congress Americas and the Mobile 360 Series of conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at gsma Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. gsmaintelligence infogsmaintelligenceContents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 1 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 8 1.1 328 million subscribers in North America by 2025 9 1.2 US and Canada are global leaders in mobile 11 1.3 Financials: muted revenue outlook, while capex sees calm before the 5G storm 17 2 MOBILE CONTRIBUTING TO ECONOMIC GROWTH 20 2.1 The direct economic contribution of the mobile ecosystem 21 2.2 Indirect and productivity impacts of mobile technology 22 2.3 Employment and public funding contribution 23 2.4 Five-year outlook 25 3 EVOLUTION OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MOBILE ECOSYSTEM 26 3.1 Mobile operators seeking content capabilities 27 3.2 Networks evolving to meet future demand 29 3.3 Scaling IoT 34 3.4 A vibrant startup ecosystem supporting future innovation 37 1North America is the benchmark for migration to next-generation services Executive Summary By the end of 2017, the number of unique mobile subscribers in North America exceeded 300 million, accounting for 84% of the population. By 2025, there will be 328 million subscribers across the region, or 86% of the population. With many subscribers owning more than one connected device, there were 374 million mobile connections across North America in 2017; this will grow to around 420 million by 2025 (109% penetration). In addition, licensed cellular IoT will be a major driver of connections growth in North America, reaching 515 million by 2025, up from just under 100 million in 2017. This will bring the total number of connections in North America to 933 million by 2025. High subscriber penetration coupled with historically high consumer spend on mobile services means the mobile market in North America was worth $260 billion in revenues in 2017. The US is the largest market worldwide in terms of revenue about 40% greater than China, bigger than the entire European mobile market, and larger than CIS, Latin America, MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa combined. The region is a benchmark for rapid migration to next-generation devices and networks. North America has the highest levels of mobile internet penetration, mobile broadband and smartphone adoption globally, and the second highest subscriber penetration rate (behind Europe). This is primarily driven by the US, which is in the top 10 markets worldwide by smartphone and 4G adoption. Executive Summary 2 The Mobile Economy North America 2018North America will lead the way on 5G: nearly 50% adoption by 2025 4G currently accounts for three quarters of total connections across North America, and will continue to grow, reaching around 80% of total connections in 2019 by which time, 5G will start to make an impact. AT and AT&Ts acquisition of TimeWarner in June 2018. If successful, these strategies can serve as models for other large mobile operators looking to diversify into content and advertising verticals, while also finally proving the value of moving beyond offering connectivity only. 2) Network innovation Mobile operators in the US agree that the provision of enhanced mobile broadband to the consumer market will be the core proposition in early 5G deployments, with massive IoT and ultra-reliable, low-latency communications gaining scale at a later stage (for example, in autonomous vehicles, industrial and vehicular automation, remote medical surgery, and advanced AR and VR). 5G-based fixed wireless is an additional use case in the US, offering a potentially lower cost and faster means compared to FTTH of expanding high-speed services to households and businesses, bringing the opportunity to gain market share and incremental revenue. However, the largest opportunity for incremental revenue in the 5G era is from services targeted at the enterprise sector in key industry verticals such as automotive, transportation, media, industrial manufacturing, logistics, energy, utilities, healthcare, agriculture and smart cities. To ensure they can meet the capacity, coverage and efficiency demands of future 5G services, mobile operators in the US are investing in their networks to achieve the highest performance at the lowest cost per bit, using advancements such as network function virtualisation (NFV) and software- defined networking (SDN) to maximise network efficiency. Executive Summary 4 The Mobile Economy North America 20183) IoT The number of IoT connections in North America will almost triple between 2018 and 2025, reaching 5.9 billion. Consumer IoT currently accounts for the majority of connections, but by 2025 will be overtaken by industrial IoT, driven by strong adoption across enterprises in verticals such as smart buildings, utilities, manufacturing and smart cities. IoT revenue in North America will increase at an average annual rate of 21% to 2025 to reach $337 billion, a three-fold increase on 2018. North America currently accounts for 35% of global IoT revenue, being home to IoT heavyweights including Google, Amazon and GE and a vibrant start-up ecosystem. Applications, platforms and services account for the majority of IoT revenue in North America, as mobile operators have been deploying different strategies and business models to move beyond offering connectivity only. Their role in the value chain could vary from simply providing enablers that other companies use to build a solution, to becoming an overall aggregator and/or end-to-end solution provider. 4) Grassroots innovation and VC funding 2018 looks set to be a record year for global venture- capital (VC) funding, both in North America and worldwide. The US is still the largest single market worldwide, accounting for more than a third of global financing. This continued growth in funding confirms its role as the heart of tech innovation and digital transformation, and is providing valuable support to growth and developments across the wider mobile ecosystem. Given the need for rapid innovation to evolve and meet future demand, there is a changing dynamic within mobile operators to pivot their business models and tap into this growing startup ecosystem. Examples include Orange Silicon Valley (OSV), AT&T Foundry and the Verizon Innovation Program, which work with companies of all sizes to bring their solutions to market. Top areas of innovation include IoT, entertainment/media and AI/machine learning. Executive Summary 5 The Mobile Economy North America 2018 28 84% 1.0% TRTIORT 27 27 27 27 225 CGR2725 86% SIM 7 9 27 225 1.4% CGR 2725 103% TRTIORT 109% 225 ( ) IT M GD 27 222 4.9% 4.0% J Ov 225 9% S w % 7 7% 5G G 4G 9% 5G w 5 7 5 j v 2% 28 84% 1.0% TRTIORT 27 27 27 27 225 CGR2725 86% SIM 7 9 27 225 1.4% CGR 2725 103% TRTIORT 109% 225 ( ) IT M GD 27 222 4.9% 4.0% J Ov 225 9% S w % 7 7% 5G G 4G 9% 5G w 5 7 5 j v 2% Industry overview 01 8 Industry overview The Mobile Economy North America 2018Unique subscribers in North America Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 1 By the end of 2017, the number of unique subscribers 1in North America exceeded 300 million, with the US accounting for 91% of the regional subscriber market and Canada the remaining 9%. 2At this point, 84% of the population subscribed to mobile services, up from 82% in 2015 and 75% in 2012. As one of the most developed and penetrated regions in the world, further subscriber growth will be minimal (limited mostly to the under 18 and over 65 year-olds): by 2025, there will be 328 million subscribers across the region, or 86% of the population. With an average 1.3 SIM cards per subscriber, there were 374 million mobile connections 3across North America in 2017, equating to connections penetration of 103%. This will grow to around 420 million by 2025 (109% penetration). In addition, licensed cellular IoT 4will be a major driver of connections growth in North America, reaching 515 million by 2025, up from just under 100 million in 2017. This will bring the total number of connections in North America to 933 million by 2025. 1.1 328 million subscribers in North America by 2025 238 275 28 297 32 24 262 328 303 US Canada Total subscribers (m) Population penetration 1. Total unique users who have subscribed to mobile services at the end of the period, excluding M2M. Subscribers differ from connections such that a unique user can have multiple connections. 2. North America includes Bermuda, Greenland, and Saint Pierre and Miquelon. These countries have just under 100,000 mobile subscribers in total (2017). Note that Mexico is included in the scope of our Mobile Economy Latin America report. 3. Total unique SIM cards (or phone numbers, where SIM cards are not used), excluding licensed cellular IoT, that have been registered on the mobile network at the end of the period. Connections differ from subscribers such that a unique subscriber can have multiple connections. 4. Total unique SIM cards that have been registered on the mobile network at the end of the period enabling mobile data transmission between two or more machines. Licensed cellular IoT excludes computing devices in consumer electronics such as e-readers, smartphones, dongles and tablets. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 75% 84% 86% 9 Industry overview The Mobile Economy North America 2018
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