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Copyright 2019 GSM Association The Mobile Economy Pacific Islands 2019The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences.For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at gsma Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. gsmaintelligence infogsmaintelligenceContents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 1 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 8 1.1 Mobile market: ongoing shift to mobile broadband 9 1.2 Market structure: challenges of fragmentation and lack of scale 11 1.3 Financials: modest growth out to 2025 13 2 MOBILE AS A PLATFORM FOR ADDRESSING SOCIAL CHALLENGES AND EMPOWERING CONSUMERS 16 2.1 Enabling life-enhancing digital services 17 2.2 Mobile internet delivering digital inclusion 18 2.3 Enabling innovation for socioeconomic impact 22 2.4 Mobile helping boost financial inclusion 24 3 HARNESSING SPECTRUM AND REGIONAL COLLABORATION 26 3.1 The importance of spectrum and WRC-19 27 3.2 The importance of collaboration and harmonising regulation 29Executive Summary The Mobile Economy Pacific Islands 2019 Executive Summary 2The ongoing shift to mobile broadband and digital transformation Infrastructure challenges remain Mobile technology can play a pivotal role in the digital transformation of the Pacific Islands, enabling access to life- enhancing services in areas such as health and education, while proving a catalyst for innovation and economic growth, with the promise of new jobs and increased tax revenues. The Pacific Islands region is seeing only modest mobile subscriber growth at a time when subscriber penetration rates remain well below regional and global developed- market averages. Although 38% of the population subscribed to a mobile service as at the end of 2018, this trails the average for least developed countries (44%). Within the region, there is significant variation in the development of local mobile markets; subscriber penetration rates range from a high of 84% in Fiji to a low of just 11% in the Marshall Islands. Papua New Guinea is by some way the most populous country in the region; with a subscriber penetration rate of 30%, it is home to the majority of the unconnected population across the region. Operators are investing to improve LTE network coverage and speeds. 4G connections are set to account for more than half of total connections by 2023, doubling the figure from the end of 2018. The shift to mobile broadband and 4G also reflects the increasing rates of smartphone adoption. From just 30% of connections at the end of 2018, this is forecast to more than double to 65% by 2025, helped by declines in smartphone prices and the emergence of new, low-cost smartphone vendors. Faster network speeds and more advanced devices are key to bringing populations online. At the end of 2018, mobile internet penetration in the Pacific Islands was the lowest of any region in the world, at just 18% of the population. This figure will grow over the coming years, but by 2025 only a third of the population will have mobile internet access. This will leave more than 9 million people across the region offline, limiting their ability to participate in the digital economy and take advantage of the opportunities it can offer. Many countries in the region face issues around infrastructure one of the GSMA Mobile Connectivity Indexs four key enablers of mobile internet and a contributor to the connectivity gap in the region. Factors behind this challenge include the fact that numerous countries have yet to complete the digital switchover process and are therefore yet to allocate spectrum in the digital dividend band (700 MHz) to mobile services. In addition, the scarcity of international internet bandwidth is a key limiting factor only gradually being addressed as new submarine cables improve connectivity. There is growing support for innovation across the region, with the emergence of new tech hubs and a developing ecosystem of entrepreneurs and new ventures looking to adapt emerging technologies such as blockchain to the particular challenges of the Pacific Islands. Most islands still lack properly developed innovation ecosystems due to the limited size of the individual markets, the complexity of developing sound infrastructure between the archipelagos, and the significant leverage of larger regional hubs in Asia Pacific. The Mobile Economy Pacific Islands 2019 Executive Summary 3To unlock the full potential of existing and future mobile networks, access to sufficient spectrum for better coverage and capacity is a necessity. When licensing spectrum, the priority for governments and regulators should be to support affordable, high- quality mobile services. One of the best opportunities for collaboration is the World Radiocommunication Conference of the ITU. At WRC-19, the future success of 5G is at stake, since the decision for mmWave bands will be taken at the conference. This is not just for countries where 5G is rolling out in the next couple of years, but for everyone. The spectrum assignment process is a long-term effort. Spectrum identified at WRC-19 can be used for decades to come: it is important to shape 5G today. The GSMA recently published a report on the socio-economic benefits of 5G services provided in mmWave bands. Rolling out 5G using mmWave is an opportunity to radically reshape services such as ultra-high speed broadband, industrial automation and intelligent transport systems. It can help provide access to better healthcare, move virtual and augmented services to the mainstream, and improve public safety. While the Pacific Islands region might not be one of the first to roll out 5G services, supporting an IMT identification during WRC-19 offers regulators the flexibility to make mmWave spectrum available for mobile services if and when needed. This additional flexibility will allow the Pacific Islands to benefit from a mature ecosystem and massive economies of scale to see 5G develop in the same way as LTE has done in the region. New submarine cables with improved capacity and other technical advancements are setting the stage for advanced broadband services, including 5G. There are several common themes to the challenges of addressing the digital divide in the region, including access to internet connectivity, financial services and other Unlocking the full potential of mobile Financial inclusion remains a challenge across all areas of the Pacific Islands. However, initiatives at a regional and country level have made some progress in recent years. The Pacific Financial Inclusion Programme (PFIP) was launched in 2008 and has funded 44 projects with financial service providers who have innovated with technology and products, in the process helping more than 2 million Pacific Islanders access formal financial services. Mobile has a key role to play in facilitating the adoption of financial services in many developing regions. Today there are a total of nine live mobile money services available to the unbanked in six different countries across the Pacific region: two in Fiji, three in Papua New Guinea and one in each of Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu. There are high levels of registration on some islands: 51% of the combined adult population of Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Tonga have a mobile money account. However, activity levels remain low, with less than 10% of these accounts currently active. Mobile helping to boost financial inclusion The Mobile Economy Pacific Islands 2019 Executive Summary 4life-enhancing digital products and services. The often challenging natural environment and topography are limiting factors on the provision of mobile coverage or access to other basic services, while low population densities and relatively modest population totals mean operators and other ecosystem players often struggle to scale new services and deployments in a cost-effective manner. Addressing these will require collaboration between players from across the mobile ecosystem, as well as a supportive regulatory and policy environment that encourages investment and innovation. A number of bodies including the World Bank and the GSMA are highlighting the importance of collaboration and harmonisation in various areas of both telecoms and broader ICT regulation. The ITU has previously suggested that the Pacific Islands could become a showcase for developing a collaborative framework a call that resonates beyond just the mobile sector to encompass all developmental initiatives in the region. The goal of increased collaboration is one that all players in the Pacific Islands should support with the aim of increasing connectivity and realising the potential of the digital economy. The Mobile Economy Pacific Islands 2019 Executive Summary 5 1 ENET ATON ATE 01 01 01 01 0 0 0 CAG 01 CAG 01 CAG 01 ENET ATON ATE 0 CAG 01-0 ENET ATON ATE 10% this has increased by around 10 percentage points since the end of 2015. It follows earlier moves to liberalise other markets in the region: Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands have liberalised their markets in recent years and have seen the arrival of new-entrant mobile operators. 1. Assessing the impact of market structure on innovation and quality, GSMA Intelligence, 2018 The Mobile Economy Pacific Islands 2019 Industry overview 11
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