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e-Conomy SEA Spotlight 2017Unprecedented growth for Southeast Asias $50B internet economy2Google and Temasek released “e-Conomy SEAUnlocking the $200B digital opportunity in Southeast Asia” in May 2016, shedding light on the fast growing internet economy in the region. Google-Temasek e-Conomy SEA Spotlight 2017 aims to highlight the most significant consumer trends observed in 2017, to identify industry segments and key players experiencing accelerated growth, and to discuss progress made in solving ecosystem challenges.The research leverages proprietary Google data, Temasek research, expert interviews, and second-ary data sources to provide best available estimates of industry metrics and trends. All monetary values are expressed in US dollars unless specified otherwise. The research covers four key sectors of the internet economy with significant business size and growth: travel (flights, hotels), media (ads, gaming), ride hailing and e-commerce (first-hand goods). It does not include other sectors of the internet economy such as education, entertainment, health, and financial services that are still in early stage of development and monetization in Southeast Asia. The research covers the six largest markets in Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.Google-Temasek e-Conomy SEA is a joint research initiative led by Google and Temasek. Eric Salmon & Partners and Trellis Network contributed perspectives on the talent challenge. Golden Gate Ventures and Monks Hill Ventures provided additional insights on fundraising in Southeast Asia.IntroductionSources AcknowledgementsScope3Source: 1. Hootsuite 2017 report, based on a GlobalWebIndex survey of internet users in the age group 16-64. Unprecedented growth for Southeast Asias $50B internet economyGoogle-Temasek e-Conomy SEA, released in May 2016, highlighted Southeast Asia as the worlds fastest growing internet region, with an existing internet user base of 260 million projected to grow to 480 million users by 2020. In the research, we predicted that Southeast Asias internet economy will grow to $200B by 2025 driven mostly by the growth of online travel, e-commerce, and online media.Furthermore, we estimated that to build a $200B Southeast Asian internet economy, $40-50B investments would be required in a decade. In addition to funding, the key challenges to realize the growth potential included availability of homegrown tech talent, a developed digital payment ecosystem, last-mile logistics infrastructure, high-speed internet access and consumer trust.Fast forward to 2017, Southeast Asias internet user base continues to grow rapidly. There will be 330M monthly active internet users by year-end 2017, adding over 70 million new users since 2015 at 13% CAGR. In Southeast Asia, mobile is the internet, as more than 90% of Southeast Asias internet users are on smartphones. It is hard to overestimate the absolute prominence of mobile as the access point and driver of Southeast Asias internet economy. Users in Southeast Asia are incredibly engaged, spending an average of 3.6 hours per day on mobile internet,1more than in any other region in the world. Users in Thailand lead the world with 4.2 hours per day spent on mobile internet, and users in Indonesia come a close second at 3.9 hours per day. By comparison, users in the U.S. spend an average 2.0 hours per day on mobile internet; users in the U.K., 1.8 hours per day; and users in Japan, 1.0 hour per day.These incredible levels of engagement have led to a sizeable market opportunity. We estimate that Southeast Asias internet economy will reach $50B in 2017. Growing at 27% CAGR, it has outpaced the 20% 10-year CAGR projected in Google-Temasek e-Conomy SEA and is on a solid trajectory to exceed $200B by 2025. Southeast Asias internet economy accounts for 2% of the regions GDP in 2017, up from 1.3% in 2015 and projected to reach 6% of the GDP by 2025. 14Source: 2. Note: Gross merchandise value of shipped orders (including VAT). First-hand goods only. Excludes resale of second-hand goods through marketplaces, classified ads, or social media.All sectors of the internet economy have experienced solid growth in 2017. Online travel reached $26.6B led by growth in airline and hotel online bookings. Online media touched $6.9B driven by online ads and gaming. E-commerce and ride hailing have been under the spotlight: growing the fastest at over 40% CAGR, capturing consumers preferences with evolving business models, and attracting the majority of the investments in the region. As a result, they are the focus of Google-Temasek e-Conomy SEA Spotlight 2017.E-commerce reaches $11B, fueled by investments in booming marketplacesThe Southeast Asian e-commerce market is extremely dynamic and highly fragmented, with multiple coexisting business models. For the purpose of our research, we have included business-to-consumer (B2C) sales, and sales on marketplaces where first-hand goods sold by small and medium businesses (SMB) to consumers represents the majority of transactions. We have excluded second-hand sales of goods sold by consumers to consumers in marketplaces, classifieds, and social media apps (C2C).Based on these definitions, we estimate that e-commerce sales of first-hand goods will reach $10.9B in gross merchandise value (GMV)2in 2017, up from $5.5B in 2015, growing at 41% CAGR.250.0B200.0B150.0B100.0B50.0B.0B2.5B3.7B19.1B5.5B5.1B6.9B26.6B10.9B20.1B19.5B76.6B88.1BRide hailing2015 2017 2025Exhibit 1: Online Market size for focus Industry Verticals (USD billions)Online media Online travel E-commerceCAGR2015-17CAGR2015-2543%36%18%41%23%18%15%32%Exhibit 1: SEA internet e-Conomy market size ($B)25Consumer interest for e-commerce has grown quickly across Southeast Asia, with Google Search interest for e-commerce brands growing more than two-fold in two years, supported by promotional activities and marketing investments by leading regional and global e-commerce players as well as co-marketing initiatives with top brands in consumer electronics, fashion, and consumer goods industries.100.0B75.0B50.0B25.0B.0B2015 2017 2025Exhibit 2: E-commerce market size (in USD billions)5.5B10.9B88.1BE-commerceCAGR2015-17CAGR2015-2541% 32%Exhibit 4: Search Interest for top E-commerce BrandsJul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017Google Search volume (indexed)Courier servicesDigital payments Exhibit 3: E-commerce market size scopeScenarioFirst-hand goodsFirsthand goodsSMB to consumer (SMB-2-C) Consumer to consumer (C2C)Second-hand goodsExcludedBusiness to consumer (B2C)IncludedExhibit 3: Google Search growth for top SEA e-commerce brands2: SEA e-commerce market size ($B)6The acceleration of Southeast Asian e-commerce has been driven by the surge of marketplaces where SMBs sell to consumers on mobile-first platforms (SMB-2-C). Top players in this space, like Lazada, Shopee, and Tokopedia, have enabled the growth of SMB-2-C by providing scalable, readily accessible platforms where the long-tail of smaller retail players can transact online and reach new consumers within and beyond Southeast Asia. Confirming the appeal of Southeast Asian e-commerce marketplaces is also the strong user engagement with these platforms. Southeast Asias mobile internet users are among the most engaged globally, spending on average 140 minutes per month on these platforms versus 80 minutes per month for the leading marketplace in the U.S.Ride hailing booming at 43% CAGR, top players expanding into services and paymentsAnother sector with massive user engagement, ride hailing services have experienced dramatic growth in the past two years. We estimate these services will reach $5.1B GMV in 2017, more than double from $2.5B GMV in 2015. In light of strong acceleration in penetration and usage, we have revised our 2025 projections for the ride hailing sector to $20.1B GMV.Minutes per monthExhibit 5: SMB-2-C users engagement (average minutes per month)SEA Brand A SEA Brand B USA Top Player140 14080Exhibit 4: User engagement on SMB-2-C platforms37In Southeast Asia, this sector is hotly contested between Grab, the regional homegrown champion; Uber, the global sector leader; and Go-Jek, the Indonesia-focused two-wheeler player. These leading players have announced plans to make services available in over 100 cities in Southeast Asia by end of 2017 and to further expand to over 200 cities by 2018. The acceleration of ride hailing services in Southeast Asia reflects steep pent-up consumer demand, attractiveness for drivers as a viable job opportunity, and product innovation leading to improved user experience. Attractive fares and ongoing promotional activity have also fueled growth, as ride prices are discounted up to 40-60%. All these have led to a more than four-fold increase since 2015, with car and motorbike bookings through ride hailing players reaching 6 million rides per day in Q3 2017 across Southeast Asia,3and still experiencing steep quarter-on-quarter growth.25.0B20.0B15.0B10.0B5.0B.0B2015 2017 2025Exhibit 6: Ride hailing market size (in USD billions)2.5B5.1B20.1BRide hailingCAGR2015-17CAGR2015-2543% 23%Exhibit 5: SEA ride hailing market size ($B)Source: 3. Google-Temasek research estimates.8Source: 4. Grab Corporate Profile, Oct 2017. In addition to transforming personal transportation, ride hailing companies are creating employment and supplementary income opportunities for drivers in Southeast Asia. By Q3 2017, the top three ride hailing players have engaged more than 2.5 million drivers in Southeast Asia, a four-fold increase from 600,000 in 2015. As a result, ride hailing is helping make car ownership affordable in Southeast Asia, a region where there are only 70 cars per 1,000 people, compared to 103 in China and 574 in the United States.4Number of drivers (millions)Exhibit 8: SEA Ride Hailing drivers base (Period End, Estimated)2015 2017.6M2.5MExhibit 7: SEA ride hailing driver base (period end, estimated)Number of daily rides (millions)Exhibit 7: SEA Ride Hailing daily rides (Estimated, Period End)2015 20171.3M6.0MExhibit 6: SEA ride hailing daily rides (estimated, period end)9With their large and growing base of users and drivers, ride hailing players in Southeast Asia are well positioned to become horizontal personal services platforms. Millions of users transact and pay on their platforms on a daily basis, giving them a head start as they aim to build digital payment services accepted by online and offline merchants. We expect these trends to continue, unlocking opportunities for growth for Southeast Asias internet economy as a whole.$13B invested in Southeast Asia since 2015, majority of funds raised by unicornsThe dynamism of the e-commerce and ride hailing sectors in Southeast Asia has attracted significant investment activity since the release of Google-Temasek e-Conomy SEA in 2016. In that research, we estimated that $40-50B worth of investments would be required over 10 years to help grow Southeast Asia to a $200B internet economy by 2025. Between 2016 and Q3 2017, Southeast Asian internet companies were able to raise more than $12B of capital,7up from just $1B in 2015, setting the region well on track to meet the estimated 10-year requirements.Food deliveryDigital payments Courier services 161x 22x 10xScenarioSource: 5. Grab, Uber, Go-Jek company websites. 6. Google Internal Search data (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2015). 7. Google-Temasek research.In 2016 and 2017, ride hailing players in Southeast Asia have rapidly expanded their offerings beyond their initial focus on transportation services. Grab has launched, among others, GrabShare and GrabHitch (carpooling), GrabFood (food delivery), GrabExpress (courier), and GrabPay (payments), and it acquired Indonesian startup Kudo to build an Indonesian digital payments ecosystem. Go-Jek has developed a full suite of transportation and lifestyle services, including Go-Food (food delivery), Go-Send (courier), and Go-Pay (payments). Uber has rolled out UberEATS food delivery service in Singapore and Bangkok.5Meanwhile, consumer interest for these services has rapidly increased, with Google Search volumes for food delivery services growing by 22X, for courier services by 10X, and for digital payments by 161X in Q3 2017 compared to Q3 2015.64Exhibit 8: Google Search growth for on-demand services in SEA (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2015)10Venture capital investments in Southeast Asian companies signal a strong vote of confidence in the potential of Southeast Asias internet economy by global and regional investors. These investments stood at 0.18% of Southeast Asia GDP in 2016, up from 0.04% in 2014, putting Southeast Asia on par with India (0.18% of GDP in 2016) and narrowing the gap with China (0.30% of GDP in 2016).8Source: 8. World Bank, Pitchbook.Exhibit 10: Venture capital investments (2016)Exhibit 13: VC Investments as percent of GDP (2016, %)US China India0.40%0.30%0.18%SEA0.18%Venture capital investments (% of GDP)Exhibit 12: SEA internet companies fundraising (2015-2017 Q3)2015201620171.1B4.4B7.7BFunds raised ($B)Exhibit 9: SEA internet companies fundraising (2015-2017 Q3)11Based on public information, Southeast Asia is currently home to seven internet unicorns (i.e., companies with over $1B valuation): Go-Jek, Grab, Lazada, Razer, Sea Ltd. (formerly known as Garena),9Traveloka, and Tokopedia. Of the $12B of capital invested in Southeast Asia since 2016, $9B were raised by its unicorns. Another $1.4B was raised by companies in the $100M-1B valuation range, and $1.9B by companies with valuation below $100M. This shows how global and regional investors have favored the largest and most established internet com-panies, while fundraising has remained challenging for Southeast Asia internet start-ups and smaller ventures.From 2016 to Q3 2017 there were 1,370 deals involving Southeast Asia internet companies. Of these, the vast majority were Series A and earlier deals (1,095), illustrating how access to capital in this stage is fairly achievable. The number of deals in Series B and C dropped drastically to just 94, and there were only 8 Series D and later deals completed. This funding bottleneck still prevents most internet companies in Southeast Asia from securing access to capital through subse-quent funding rounds.Exhibit 11: SEA internet companies fundraising (2016-2017 Q3)Exhibit 14: SEA internet companies fundraising (2016-2017 Q3)Unicorns ($1B valuation)Companies valued$100M-$1BCompanies valuebelow $100M9B1.4B1.9BFunds raised ($B)Source: 9. Sea Ltd. (formerly known as Garena) started trading on the New York Stock Exchange in October 2017.125The majority of investments in Southeast Asia from 2016 to Q3 2017 targeted companies based in Singapore and Indonesia. Singapore-based companies have been involved in 609 deals, representing 58% of total funds
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