资源描述
ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 2018 110 Hot ConsumerTrends 2018An Ericsson Consumer Insight Summary ReportDecember 2017ERICSSON CONSUMERLABThis report presents insights based on Ericssons long-standing consumer trends program, now in its seventh year. The quantitative results referred to in the report are based on an online survey of 5,141 advanced internet users in Johannesburg, London, Mexico City, Moscow, New York, San Francisco, So Paulo, Shanghai, Sydney and Tokyo that was carried out in October 2017.Respondents were advanced internet users aged 1569, who have an urban early adopter profile with high average use of new digital technologies such as intelligent voice assistants, virtual reality headsets and augmented reality applications.Correspondingly, they represent only 30 million citizens out of around 180 million living in the metropolitan areas surveyed, and this, in turn, is just a small fraction of consumers globally. However, we believe their early adopter profile makes them important to understand when exploring future trends.Ericsson ConsumerLab has more than 20 years experience of studying peoples behaviors and values, including the way they act and think about ICT products and services. Ericsson ConsumerLab provides unique insights on market and consumer trends.Ericsson ConsumerLab gains its knowledge through a global consumer research program based on interviews with 100,000 individuals each year, in more than 40 countries statistically representing the views of 1.1 billion people.Both quantitative and qualitative methods are used, and hundreds of hours are spent with consumers from different cultures. To be close to the market and consumers, Ericsson ConsumerLab has analysts in all regions where Ericsson is present, developing a thorough global understanding of the ICT market and business models. Methodology The voice of the consumerAll reports can be found at: ericsson/consumerlab2 ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 2018010100101100001011010101101110100110101110101001011000010110101011011100110101110101001011000010110101011011100110101110101010101100001011000101101110110100101001011001000011010101101110011010111010100101100001011010101101110011010111010100101100001011010101101110011010111010100101100001011010101101110110101ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 2018 3Two things are conspicuously absent from this vision of a not-too-distant future. One is an appliance with switches and knobs, and the other is a smartphone full of remote control apps. Our research indicates that consumers are increasingly moving towards a paradigmatic shift in how they expect to interact with technology. Ever more things are becoming connected, but the complexities of how to control them all are a different matter.On the one hand, alternative yet equally good user interface solutions for simple functions have existed for much longer than weve had electronic gadgets. A Westerner who experiences an Asian meal for the first time soon finds out that the user interface to that meal is a pair of chopsticks rather than a knife and fork.On the other hand, mass-market acceptance of digital technology has made the proliferation of user interfaces practically infinite. Every new device with a screen adds new user interface variations, which are then multiplied by the number of apps within each gadget. Today you have to know all the devices. But tomorrow all the devices will have to know you.If consumers continue to be faced with the prospect of learning and relearning how to use devices in the face of an ever-increasing pace of technological change, they will become increasingly reluctant to buy in to the future.We might already be close to that breaking point. The current generation of “flat” user interfaces do not use 3D effects or embellishments to make clickable interface elements, such as buttons, stand out. It is difficult for users to know where to click. As a result, they navigate web pages 22 percent slower.1For this reason, our trends for 2018 and beyond focus on various aspects of more direct interaction between consumers and technology.With 5G, connectivity is set to become ubiquitous. This might sound simple, but it involves a huge technology upgrade; devices must be able to relay complex human interaction data to cloud-based processing, and respond intuitively within milliseconds. The Internet of Things (IoT) must provide interoperability between all devices, and allow for mobility. Network availability also needs to be maintained, so that devices do not suddenly go offline and lose their human-like capabilities. Tomorrow, your devices will know you1nngroup/articles/flat-ui-less-attention-cause-uncertaintyImagine you have just arrived home from work. You wave your hand, and the lamp turns on, flashing the light in greeting. The home speaker begins to play music, but when you give it an exasperated look, it turns off. You make a coffee, but grimace because its too bitter. The coffee machine immediately offers to add sugar or milk. 361 58601 27 19486 39HELLO485 35 1294 ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 201802 Augmented hearing63 percent of consumers would like earphones that translate languages in real time. Page 7 01 Your body is the user interfaceMore than half of current users of intelligent voice assistants believe we will use gestures to interact with tech just like we do with people. Page 603 Eternal newbies 46 percent say the internet allows them to learn and forget skills faster than ever. Page 8 05 Intelligent ads More than half of AR or VR users think ads will become so realistic they will eventually replace the products themselves. Page 1004 Social broadcasting 55 percent think influential groups are using social networks for one-sided broadcast messages. Page 9 10Hot consumer trends 2018 ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 2018 506 Uncanny communication50 percent of respondents think not being able to tell the difference between human and machine would spook them out. Page 1107 Leisure society40 percent say they would like a robot that works and earns income for them, freeing up their leisure time. Page 1208 Your photo is a room Three out of four believe that in only five years they will use virtual reality to walk around in smartphone photos. Page 1309 Streets in the air 39 percent think their city needs a road network for drones and flying vehicles. Page 1410 The charged future More than 80 percent believe that in only 5 years we will have long-lasting batteries that put an end to charging concerns. Page 15 6 ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 2018Consumers who already use intelligent voice assistants are leading a behavioral change. In fact, more than half of them believe we will use body language, intonation, touch and gestures to interact with tech just like we do with people; two out of three think this will happen in only three years.Today, smartphones are almost synonymous with internet use. But when consumers increasingly interact with other types of tech, they may well start to think about a general need for connectivity.Given that one in three intelligent voice assistant users think that eventually they will not be able to open doors, cook food or even brush their teeth without an internet connection, it is clear that reliable connectivity will become all-important.But it may also be necessary to think about what we will use less because of this change. Potentially, we will have a reduced need for smartphone-based remote control apps. And although the keyboard and mouse are universally present and accepted by almost everyone today, 81 percent of intelligent voice assistant users actually believe such traditional input devices will be a thing of the past in only 5 years. Will we miss them? If direct interaction turns out to be more convenient, we certainly wont. There are many other interfaces that will also be replaced by direct interaction and a reliance on connectivity. For example, the advanced internet users in our survey voted self-driving cars as the next tech gadget that people everywhere will eventually buy. This means not only the end of steering wheels and pedals, but also that cars will have to directly interact with pedestrians. For example, how does someone waiting at a crossing know when they can go if there is no driver in the car to gesture to them?#01Your body is the user interfaceDigital tech is beginning to interact on human terms. More than halfMore than half of current users of intelligent voice assistants believe we will use body language, intonation, touch and gestures to interact with tech just like we do with people.HELLOERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 2018 7#02Augmented hearingMany smartphone makers are now abandoning the headphone jack in favor of digital multi-function ports, in a way forcing consumers to seek out wireless alternatives instead. Some accept this change, while others do not; but all might agree that the headphone jack represents an analogue era that we no longer live in.This means when consumers are upgrading their phones they also need to upgrade their earphones. And just as people expect new functions in a phone, it turns out that they expect new functions in earphones too.Today, earphones are already used not only to enable sounds but also to block them out. For example, noise-cancelling functionality has been serving this dual purpose for some time. We use headphones and earphones to select what we want and do not want to hear.It is therefore not surprising that half of all advanced internet users surveyed think that earphones that let you select which people in a room you want to hear clearly, and which people you want to mute, will be mainstream in only three years. But for that to become a reality, earphones will need to be more aware of our intentions and allow for more direct user control.Furthermore, such functionality can be applied in many situations. In fact, 81 percent believe earphones that charge wirelessly, so that you never have to take them out at all, will be mainstream in only 5 years. The most anticipated functionality for such earphones is real-time translation of all languages, desired by 63 percent of respondents. But 52 percent also want to block out the sound of snoring family members in order to sleep. In the near future, we might find that we use wireless earphones all day long and even sleep with them in too.63%63 percent of consumers would like earphones that translate languages in real time. 52%52 percent also want to block out a family members snoring.81%81 percent believe earphones that charge wirelessly, so that you never have to take them out, will be mainstream in only 5 years. 8 ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 2018The pace of technological change is increasing almost every day, and it is easy to feel stress at not being able to keep up. For some, this is probably manifested as a feeling of helplessness.1But for many, it may present an opportunity. In fact, almost half of consumers think technology will make learning even advanced professions much quicker. On the other hand, endeavors to learn and relearn will be a never-ending rat race, with 55 percent believing that technological change will accelerate the pace of change in skills needed at work.Luckily, the internet can also help consumers cope with this new situation. As many as 46 percent say the internet allows them to learn and forget skills at a faster pace than ever before. #03Eternal newbies1For example, this seems to be the perspective in Kevin Kellys book The Inevitable (Viking, 2016)As many as 30 percent of respondents say new technology makes it impossible to keep their skills up to date. This means some of us feel like total beginners even when performing everyday routine tasks.Generally, we learn skills only at the moment we need them. Already today, almost half say they often just search the internet for how to do things, because they have either forgotten or because there is a new way to do it anyway.vol. 546%46 percent say the internet allows them to learn and forget skills faster than ever. We use skills only at the moment we need them. ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB 10 HOT CONSUMER TRENDS 2018 9Influencers with money buy followers and those with the right know-how use artificial intelligence (AI) bots to fill social media with traditional broadcasting messages turning social media back into a platform of one-way communication.Consumers are well aware that social networks are increasingly becoming the scene for standardized broadcast messages that are more designed to spread an opinion than to invite dialogue and reciprocity. Fifty-five percent think influential groups use social networks to broadcast their messages, and a similar number think politicians use social media to spread propaganda. Thirty-nine percent think celebrities pay to get more followers, while as many are getting tired of requests from companies to rate them and like them online. In fact, one in three confess that they do not really read other peoples status updates, implying they do not neccessarily pay attention to what they see online anyway. On the other hand, half of the advanced internet users surveyed say AI would be useful to help check whether facts stated on social networks are true or false. The same number of respondents would also like to use AI to verify the truthfulness of what politicians say.We humans sometimes favor automated communication over spontaneous dialogue. Messaging apps in smartphones and smart watches are already offering lists of predefined answers that we use to reply even to our nearest and dearest. As many as 41 percent of those who currently use intelligent voice assistants would even want to use AI to automate their email replies.Even though we may find it acceptable to give impersonal, machine-like responses to others, we must realize that we are also receiving them in return.The question as to whether we humans really want to engage in sustained dialogue still remains open. What would happen if we leave all dialogue to machines instead? Given that as many as 38 percent of those who currently already use intelligent voice assistants would like to use AI to write social network status updates, this is a question that needs to be answered. Would a world where only AI assistants interact allow for a better exchange of opinion? #04Social broadcastingSocial media promised user-driven two-way communication, giving voice and power to individual consumers and redressing the balance between senders and receivers. However, social media is now being overrun by one-sided broadcasters.55%55 percent say influential groups use social networks to broadcast their own messages. Ads that use new technology such as augmented and virt
展开阅读全文