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LUXURY GOODS WORLDWIDE MARKET STUDY, FALLWINTER 2018 The future of luxury: A look into tomorrow to understand today This report was authored by Claudia DArpizio, Federica Levato, Filippo Prete, Elisa Del Fabbro and Jolle de Montgol er. Claudia DArpizio (claudia.darpiziobain) is the global leader of the Luxury and Fashion vertical at Bain it now represents 10% of all luxury sales. The Americas market made up 44% of online sales, but Asia is emerging as a new growth engine for luxury online, slightly ahead of Europe. Accessories remained the top category sold online, ahead of apparel. The beauty and “hard luxury” (jewelry and watches) categories were both on the rise. The biggest online channels for luxury sales were e-tailers, brands own websites and retailers websites. Meanwhile, the secondhand market for luxury goods surged to 22 billion on strong growth in Europe and among online platforms. Luxury consumers are getting younger and more diverse Luxury brands can no longer deny the in uence of younger consumers. Generations Y and Z accounted for 47% of luxury consumers in 2018 and for 33% of luxury purchases. However, they contributed virtually all of the markets growth, compared with 85% in 2017. To capitalize, luxury brands are adapting to the preferences of younger consumers in terms of product offerings, communication and engagement strategies, and distribution channels. The luxury industry is also increasingly acknowledging cultural and size preferences. Modest fashion, comprising garments that can be worn by Muslim consumers, accounted for approximately 40% of luxury womens ready-to-wear in 2018, while “inclusive” fashion, targeted to curvy or plus-size consumers, represented about 20%. Seven macro trends will shape the market through 2025 Looking ahead, we expect market fundamentals to remain favorable for the personal luxury goods segment, resulting in growth of 3% to 5% per year through 2025, for a total value of 320 billion to 365 billion. However, sociopolitical issues, commercial policies and potential soft recessions could make for a bumpy road in the short term.Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, FallWinter 2018 3 Based on our analysis, we identi ed seven trends that will shape the future of luxury. Chinese shoppers ramp up their purchasing, especially in China. By 2025, Chinese consumers will account for 46% of the global market (up from 33% in 2018), and they will make half of their purchases at home in China (up from 24% in 2017). Digital permeates every purchase. By 2025, the online channel will represent 25% of the markets value, up from 10% today. Approximately half of all luxury purchases will be digitally enabled thanks to new technologies along the value chain, and nearly all luxury purchases will be in uenced by online interactions. Network consolidation rede nes the store of the future. Reduced foot traf c at physical stores will lead to consolidation in retail networks, similar to what has already happened in sectors such as music, books and consumer electronics. The role of the store will evolve from a simple point of sale to a true touchpoint for consumer engagement. The in uence of younger consumers grows. New generations will be the primary engine of growth for the luxury market in the coming years. Generations Y and Z will represent approximately 55% of the 2025 market and will contribute 130% of market growth between now and then, offsetting the decline in sales among older generations. Cultures and subcultures drive consumption trends. Evolving cultures and subcultures (religious, ethnic and others) will gain increasing in uence. Luxury brands will need to acknowledge and address these groups to remain relevant. One market will serve “markets of one.” Brands in 2025 will see a blurring of typical competitive boundaries. The standard model of growthin which brands either become a specialist in a category or diversify across a broader set of products and serviceswill be taken to the extreme as companies strive to address individual consumers unique needs. Nimble becomes the new black. EBIT margins rose from 19% in 2017 to 20% in 2018, con rming the recent trend of higher pro tability. However, digital disruption will continue to affect brands P out-of-home luxury includes luxury hospitality, luxury cruises and fine dining; luxury toys includes luxury cars, private jets and yachts Source: Bain & Company Growth of global luxury goods segments ( billions) Compound annual growth rate (CAGR), 201017 YOY growth at constant exchange rates, 201718E 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 6.5% 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 Personal luxury goods At-home luxury experiences Luxury toys Out-of-home luxury experiences Figure 1: The global luxury market grew to nearly 1.2 trillion in 2018, up 5% from 2017 Total 2018E Luxury cruises Note: Figures for 2018 are estimated, based on data from January to September Source: Bain & Company Worldwide luxury market, 2018E ( billions) 1,171 2 21 41 41 50 71 190 495 260 Personal luxury goods Luxury cars Luxury hospitality Fine wines & spirits Gourmet food & fine dining High-end furniture & housewares Fine art Private jets & yachts Year-over-year (YOY) growth, 201718E 2% 6% 1% 5% 1% 5% 2% 4% 3% 6% 3% 3% 6% 7% 4% 3% 3% 7% +1% +5% At current exchange rates At constant exchange ratesLuxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, FallWinter 2018 7 Figure 3: After a pause in 2016, the personal luxury goods market returned to a “new normal” of moderate growth Source: Bain & Company Global personal luxury goods market ( billions) 1996 76 97 84 98 88 99 98 00 116 02 01 122 122 03 120 04 128 05 139 06 150 07 161 08 159 09 147 10 167 11 186 12 207 13 212 14 219 15 245 16 244 17 254 18E 260 at current exchange rates 6% CAGR 19962018E YOY growth, 201718E +2% at constant exchange rates +6% “Sortie du temple” Democratization Crisis Chinese shopping frenzy Reboot New normal Worldwide, the personal luxury goods market experienced growth across most regions. Europe remained the top region for sales, followed by the Americas, Asia (including mainland China), Japan and the rest of the world. Chinese consumers led the positive growth trend, with a 33% share of global luxury spending (up from 32% in 2017). Between 2015 and 2018, purchasing by Chinese consumers in mainland China contributed twice as much growth in absolute value as their spending abroad. Europe experienced moderate growth in sales in 2018. Local consumption was positive overall, helping to boost retail sales 3% (1% at current exchange rates) to 84 billion. But a deceleration in tourist spending had a major impact across European markets. Data from Global Bluea company that tracks tax-free shopping transactions shows that most major markets, including Germany, the UK, Spain and Italy, saw a substantial contraction in tax- free spending, as strong currencies dampened tourist shopping. France remained a bright spot, with 2% growth in tax-free transactions. Luxury sales in the Americas posted a growth rate of 5% (1% at current exchange rates), rising to 80 billion. A positive US economy boosted disposable income and overall luxury spending by local consumers. However, the strong dollar curbed spending by tourists from Asia and Latin America. Canada and Mexico were strong markets in the region, while political uncertainties derailed Brazils performance. Luxury purchases in Japan eased compared with 2017 but still hit 22 billion, representing 6% growth (3% at current exchange rates). Japan enjoyed increased consump- tion by tourists, who took advantage of affordable ights to the main shopping cities of Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka. Across the rest of Asia, sales rose 9% (11% at current exchange rates) to 39 billion, thanks to dynamic growth in local consumption in South Korea and brisk growth in Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines. In ows of Chinese tourists bene ted the entire region, particularly Hong Kong and Macau. In other areas of the world, growth was at, holding at 12 billion. Consumers in the Middle East saw constrained disposable income due to a drop in oil prices and a recent government spending restriction. Additionally, the regions turbulent geopolitical situation has reduced tourist volume. 2. Regional highlights
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