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The Mother Of All Tech Battles AUTOTECH Important disclosures appear at the back of this report GP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRA Subscribe to receive GP Bullhound Research and News on gpbullhound/subscribe/ Dealmakers in Technology February 20193 AUTOTECH 01 THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND 03 CHAPTER 1: A TIME OF UNPRECEDENTED CHANGE 09 CHAPTER 2: THE GROWING INFLUENCE AND POWER OF TECH PLAYERS17 EXPERT VIEW Christian Herrmann, Daimler 15 CHAPTER 3: AUTOTECH INVESTMENTS GROWING FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH 27 CHAPTER 4: FOUR KEY TRENDS IN AUTOTECH30 EXPERT VIEW Alain Tiquet, Nvidia36 EXPERT VIEW Martin Anderlind, Northvolt43 EXPERT VIEW Stan Boland, FiveAI49 EXPERT VIEW Magnus Olsson, Careem56 EXPERT VIEW Dieter May, BMW 58 CHAPTER 5: Future Battlefronts61 EXPERT VIEW Darren Jobling, Zerolight63 EXPERT VIEW Timo Buetefisch, Cooltra65 EXPERT VIEW Lewis Horne, Uniti 58 CHAPTER 6: JOCKEYING FOR POSITION 71 METHODOLOGY CONTENTS5 AUTOTECH Sven Raeymaekers Partner Guillaume Bonneton Partner EXECUTIVE SUMMARY From the moment that Karl Benz built the first petrol-powered internal combustion engine automobile in Mannheim in 1885, car culture has relentlessly spread across the globe. Its impact has been nothing less than extraordinary: Das Auto has transformed global economies, shaped entire societies and tested the limits of engineering time and time again. It is unquestionably one of the most important inventions in history. As it stands today, if the industry were an economy, it would be among the ten largest on earth. More than 100 years after the petrol- powered car passed go for the first time - and despite worldwide sales at a record high in 2018 - stress fractures are starting to appear. Tesla is on track to outsell both BMW and Mercedes-Benz in the US, car sales in China are declining for the first time in decades, and several global automakers have issued profit warnings in recent months. Indeed, the multi-trillion-dollar industry is facing unprecedented change across a number of fronts, including: Social: urbanisation and changing trends in car ownership Political: regulation and pollution levels Technological: autonomous driving, electrification and connectivity Over the next 10-15 years, four trends are set to converge and potentially change the industry forever. They are: Electrification, autonomous driving, shared mobility, and connected experiences. Car makers are, consequently, confronted with a myriad of challenges, particularly in relation to design and manufacturing, alongside changes to the business model and customer relationships. In this new world, profits are expected to be redirected to areas where car makers lack prior knowledge and experience, while investment needs to be routed towards technology that in many cases remains untested. As a result, we will undoubtedly see the emergence of new and powerful players in the mobility ecosystem. Its common to compare the trials and tribulations of automotive with those of the mobile device industry, where value has shifted from hardware to software and ecosystems and, ultimately, has led to the demise of several global giants. In this fast-moving world, one thing is for sure: auto industry leaders have no desire to see history repeat itself. THE VIEW From GP Bullhound 4A TIME OF Unprecedented Change 7 AUTOTECH CHAPTER 1 6 MACRO-ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS Are Impacting The Automotive Industry Sources: GP Bullhound analysis, BCG analysis, 1. Insee, 2015 Impacted by a number of macro-environmental factors, the multi-trillion-dollar auto industry is facing unprecedented change, with a number of social, political and technological drivers shifting and altering how businesses will perform for years to come. Social With people continuing to value the concept of sustainable living and embracing a pay-per-use and sharing economy, car ownership continues to fall in cities around the world, despite the worlds urban population growing from 52% in 2010 to 55% today. Adding in time lost in seemingly endless traffic jams, ever-increasing parking costs, and the availability of various alternative modes of transport, including bikes, scooters and mopeds, its perhaps not surprising to see only 36% of Parisian households owning a car in 2015, compared to 80% across France as a whole. Political Increasingly concerned with the wellbeing and protection of vehicle occupants and vulnerable road users, and equally applying to new standards in vehicle safety equipment as well as the operation of new mobility services, central and local authorities are calling for more stringent regulation to increase road safety. At the same time, pressure to limit the environmental impact of road transport is mounting, as illustrated by the introduction of emission targets, ICE bans, and subsidies for electrified vehicles. As vehicles progressively turn into data centres on wheels, more rigid rules are being called for around privacy data protection. Technological Over the past few years, weve experienced tremendous progress in terms of enabling technologies, providing a foundation for the advent of connected, autonomous, shared, and electric driving platforms. These technologies include advances in artificial intelligence, computer vision, and sheer computational power, as well as connectivity (bandwidth is set to increase hugely following the roll-out of 5G), fast evolving energy storage efficiency, and material management (such as 3D printing for instance). 16 17 18 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70 100% 50% 0% Licensed drivers 35-39 Age 1983 2014 Millennials vs parents Proportion of age groups owning a drivers license (USA) -19% 35-39 20-249 AUTOTECH 8 CHAPTER 1 WHAT ARE THE KEY Tech Disruptions DISRUPTION HAS COME LATE But Will Have Lasting Effects Held back in part by the progress in foundational technologies, and in comparison with eCommerce and digital media, disruption of the automotive industry has taken much longer to arrive. Indeed, recent progress in key enablers, such as artificial intelligence, computer vision, broadband mobile connectivity and energy management have paved the way for Autotech to really flourish. Smartphone penetration for one, has been instrumental in the widespread adoption of the industrys so called killer app: ride hailing. At the same time, capital investment for Electrification, Autonomy and Shared Mobility start-ups tend to be significant, and required a sufficiently mature venture industry to be able to finance daring bets in these spaces. After a slow start, Electrification, Autonomy, Shared Mobility and Connectivity are set to converge over the next 10-15 years and profoundly change the automotive industry in its wake, effecting lasting changes on product design, supply chain management, manufacturing, distribution, business models, sales and marketing. The key questions those in the industry will need to answer going forward are: How will value be distributed? Who will own the customer relationship? Sources: GP Bullhound analysis, BCG analysis, umich.edu/ Despite seeing global sales of new electric vehicles quadruple between 2014 and 2017, the absolute share of plug-ins remains remarkably small. Compelled by increasingly tight emission standards and fear of being left behind, OEMs are nevertheless committing billions towards Electrification. Assuming price parity by 2024, and sufficient investment in supporting infrastructure, we can see the global electrified car count top 100 million by 2030. ELECTRIFICATION SHARED MOBILITY With the potential to rid the transportation industry of its single largest cost, while at the same time making transport safer, cheaper, and more enjoyable, the stakes are monumental. With well over 50 companies investing heavily in driverless R component suppliers) OEMs DEALER NETWORKS END CUSTOMERS Traditional profit pools 70 (+3%) Classic components 60 (-19%) New car sales (ICE & hybrids) 33 (+9%) Financing 66 (+12%) Aftermarket 26 (+25%) AV & BEV components 21 (+21%) New car sales (BEV) 28 (+27%) Data & connectivity 76 (+76%) On-demand mobility Emerging profit pools 8% 3% 14% 10% 6% 4% 13% 10% Average Profitability RAW MATERIALS TIER 2 & SUB-TIER SUPPLIERS TIER 1 SUPPLIERS OEMs AGGREGATORS (i.e Google Maps) OPTIMISERS (i.e Uber, Lyft, Ola) FLEET MANAGERS END CUSTOMERS SELF DRIVING TECH Smart factories, Connected supply chains, Changing value differentiators Mobility as a service, Autonomous vehicles New Value Chain13 AUTOTECH 12 CHAPTER X CHAPTER 2 THE GROWING INFLUENCE And Power Of Tech Players AUTOMOTIVE WALL STREET KINGS Ousted By Tech Usurpers Top US companies in 1970 General Motors Exxon Mobil IBM Texaco Gulf Oil Ford Motor ChevronTexaco Mobil Kodak DuPont 1970 Net income ($m) 1,711 1,048 934 770 611 547 454 435 401 356 Top US companies in 2018 Apple Microsoft JP Morgan Chase Alphabet Bank of America Berkshire Hathaway AT&T Johnson & Johnson Facebook Intel 2018E Net income ($m) 59,338 33,477 31,521 31,459 25,990 24,154 23,688 22,262 21,530 21,299 Auto Auto-related Tech Network Sources: Capital IQ. Note: As of 31 Dec 2018 10 Largest US-based Public Companies By Net Income With seven out of ten of the highest earning corporations being either car makers or oil and gas businesses in the 1970s, automotive dominated big business in the US. Flash forward to 2018, and these auto giants have all been replaced by tech companies 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1215 AUTOTECH 14 CHAPTER X CHAPTER 2 14 Cumulative market cap in Dec 2018 (in $bn) 506 4,363 Top ten automotive companies Top ten tech companies Cumulative net income in 2018 (in $bn) 85 255 Top ten automotive companies Top ten tech companies Cumulative R&D in 2017 (in bn) 70 110 Top ten automotive companies Top ten tech companies THE GROWING INFLUENCE AND POWER Of Tech Players Sources: Capital IQ, McKinsey.Tech companies are Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, IBM, Facebook, Tencent, Softbank, Amazon. Automotive companies are Volkswagen, Toyota, Renault, General Motors, Hyundai, Ford, Honda, Fiat, Peugeot, Daimler. Tech leaders now hold a clear advantage in terms of scale: their profits are superior and growing faster, and their cumulative market capitalisations are almost ten-fold larger than in automotive. As a result, their ability to finance research projects, and expand into new and unproven fields is considerably larger. Furthermore, leading tech companies invested almost twice as much in R&D as their automotive counterparts in 2017, whilst increasing their R&D spend more than five times faster annually. R&D growth 2016-2017 3.5% 19% Top ten automotive companies Top ten tech companies TECH PLAYERS Key Movements Start date of communication Autotech PP 1 Autotech M&A 1 Strategy 2009 2014 2014 Early presence in cars via Google maps and Waze. Building Waymo as the worlds leading autonomous driving solution. Partnering with automakers to equip cars with Android Auto & Google Assistant Offering automakers the CarPlay entertainment OS (available on car models from automakers such as Volkswagen, Peugeot, BMW, Honda etc.) Developing project Apollo: autonomous driving open source software platform offering free HD mapping, autonomous driving & testing platform, data sharing and deep learning capability -100+ partners to date, 10,000 developers Notes: Transactions from 2015 to 2018, (1) Through ARM Holdings c.5 c.10 c.10 2014 2015 2014 2014 AV: 2016 AV: 2016 Combining Intel processor technology with Mobileye computer vision expertise, in order to offer automotive leaders smart and connected solutions for transportation. Favouring partnerships with market participants such as Baidu, BMW and Fiat Chrysler Automotive division reinforced by acquisition of Harman (infotainment) in 2016. Launched a USD 300m autonomous driving investment fund in 2017. Unveiled in January 2018 DRVline, a hardware and software platform delivering autonomous driving to auto manufacturer partners Numerous investments across the value chain, in Chips & Components (Nvidia), AI & Navigation (Mapbox, Nauto), and Ride Hailing (Grab, Uber, Didi). Large co-investments with GM (Cruise) and Toyota (Autonomous Driving) Accelerating its shift to becoming a “digital assistant to all industries”. In Autotech, Tencent Smart Mobility initiative, combining in-car systems (Tencent Auto Intelligence), Tencent Passenger Ride Code (for multi-transport payment solutions), and autonomous driving including HD mapping and simulations Operating ride-sharing platforms in Russia (Yandex.taxi). Developing autonomous driving solution, with proprietary software stack, and experimenting with driver-less passenger rides Having pushed Uber out of China, expanding worldwide mainly via investments in local ride hailing platforms. Testing self-driving cars in China and the US, expecting to launch autonomous taxis in 2019 AV: 2014 AV: 2015 Favouring in-house development of disruptive technologies in Electric, autonomous driving, infotainment, production automation etc. Some partnerships like with Panasonic on batteries Aggressively developing internationally. Expanding service to 2-wheel free float, delivery etc. Relying on partnerships (Toyota, Volvo etc.) to accelerate autonomous taxis development c.15 c.20 c.30 c.25 c.20 c.5 c.5 n.a n.a (Battery pack business) Tech players Pure Autotech players While most native tech players have entered the automotive space fairly recently, many of them are determined to establish themselves as global leaders in mobility. Some of them, including Waymo, have already managed to pull out in front of traditional automotive players in key areas of Autotech. c.5 c.5 c.5 c.5 c.5 c.5 xPerception 1 1 c.5 Opteum China c.5 c.5 c.5
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