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The Global Debt Monitor and updated global debt database are available to IIF members on our website at iif/publications/global-debt-monitor. If you would like to receive regular updates about this publication, please subscribe here. Global Debt Monitor Hidden vulnerabilities January 4, 2018 Hung Tran, Executive Managing Director, htraniif, +1 202 682 7449 Sonja Gibbs, Senior Director, sgibbsiif, +1 202 857 3325 Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, etiftikiif, +1 202 857 3321 Khadija Mahmood, Senior Research Analyst, kmahmoodiif, +1 202 857 3309 Mahmood Medhat, Policy Advisor, mmahmoodiif, +1 202 857 3639 Global debt soared to over $230 trillion in Q3 2017-$16 trillion higher than its end-2016 level. However, the debt-to-GDP ratio declined for a fourth consecutive quarter as synchronized global growth boosted the denominator New highs: Private non-financial sector debt hit a record high in Canada, France, Hong Kong, Korea, Switzerland and Turkey Rising global interest rates will add to worries about the debt servicing capacity of highly indebted firms and governments Potential global tax competition following U.S. tax cuts could weigh on sovereign debt dynamics over the medium term Rollover risk for emerging markets is high this year: USD1.5 trillion of bonds/syndicated loans come due through end-2018 We have added 5 new countries to our debt monitorEgypt, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Pakistan Global debt hit an all-time high of $233 trillion in Q3 2017. Total debt across the household, government, financial and non-financial corporate sectors increased by some $16.5 trillion in the first three quarters of 2017. The rise was similar across sectors (Table 1). Global debt-to-GDP ratios declined for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q3 2017. At around 318%, global debt-to-GDP is now 3 percentage points lower than its all-time high of 321% in Q3 2016. A combination of factors including synchronized above-potential global growth, rising inflation (China, Turkey), and efforts to prevent a destabilizing build-up of debt (China, Canada) have all contributed to the decline. Overall, 34 of the 47 countries in our sample have recorded a decline in debt-to-GDP ratios since Q3 2016 (Table 2). Could high debt levels constrain monetary policy tightening? Ultra-accommodative policy during the post-crisis period offered low-cost funding for many sovereign and private sector borroweres, spurring the accumulation of more than $56 trillion in debt over the past decade (Chart 1). In the private sector, the biggest buildup has been in the non-financial corporate and household sectors, up by $26 trillion and $9 trillion respectively. High debt levels could limit the pace and scale of policy tightening, with central banks proceeding cautiously in an effort to support growth. Chart 1: Global Sectoral Indebtedness Source: IIF, BIS, IMF, Haver 22 T;64% 19 T; 58% 14 T; 53%15 T; 42%42 T;77% 33 T;58%53 T;86% 34 T;57%68 T;92% 63 T;87% 58 T;80%44 T; 59%01020304050607080Non-fin.corporatesGovernment FinancialsectorHousehold$ trillion; % of GDP; end of each Q3199720072017Table 1: Sectoral Indebtedness* USD trillion Households Non-financial corporates Government Financial sector Total Q3 2017 Q4 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2016 Mature markets 33.3 31.2 40.3 37.3 49.5 47.3 48.7 45.1 171.8 160.8 Emerging markets 10.2 9.1 28.1 25.9 13.7 12.1 9.1 8.4 61.1 55.6 Global 43.5 40.2 68.4 63.2 63.2 59.4 57.8 53.5 232.9 216.4 Source: IIF, BIS, IMF, Haver, National Sources. *Household debt incorporates outstanding bank loans. Financial sector debt and non-financial corporate debt incorporate cross-border and domestic bank loans as well as onshore/offshore outstanding bonds. Government debt is extrapolated with IMF-WEO database. For details, see the “General Information” ection of our data-base. iif Copyright 2018. The Institute of International Finance, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 2 Public sector debt servicing capacity may come under pressure: With the Fed continuing to tighten policy and other major central banks moving gradually in the same direction, the rise in global borrowing costs will weigh on debt servicing capacitynotably for highly-leveraged sovereigns. Higher rates will be a particular source of concern for governments that have seen debt/revenue ratios deteriorateincluding the UK, Japan, the U.S. and Brazil (Chart 2). Should other countries attempt to compete with U.S. tax cuts (reminiscent of the 1980s and 1990s), this could add further pressure to debt and fiscal sustainability. Private non-fianncial sector debthidden vulnerabilities: With credit downgrades still outpacing upgrades in aggregate, the rise in private sector debt since 2015 has been most evident in Hong Kong, France, China, Switzerland, Turkey and Canada. While households accounted for the bulk of rising debt in China, Canada and Switzerland, the non-financial corporate sector was the key driver of the increase in Hong Kong, France and Turkey (Chart 3). New record highs: Private non-financial sector debt has reached fresh record highs in Canada, France, Hong Kong, Korea, Switzerland and Turkey. Modest rise in Chinas total indebtedness: The pace of debt accumulation in China slowed significantly in 2017, rising by just 2 percentage points to 294% of GDP. This marks a sharp slowdown the pace of recent yearstotal debt-to-GDP rose by an average of 17 percentage points per year between 2012 and 2016. Non-financial sector corporate debt declined for the first time since 2011, while household and financial sector debt rose only modestly. U.S. non-financial corporate debt on the rise: At over $14 trillion (72% of GDP), U.S. non-financial corporate debt is around $4 trillion higher than in 2007, with vulnerabilities skewed towards smaller firms (see our September Capital Markets Monitor). In a rising-rate environment, stronger hard currencies would pose substantial risks for some emerging markets: While many emerging markets have reduced reliance on FX-denominated debts in recent years, Saudi Arabia, Czech Republic and Turkey have seen a further buildup (Chart 4). At over $600 billion, FX-denominated bond issuance in EMs has been at a record pace in 2017. Heavy EM redemptions: Over $1.5 trillion of EM bonds and syndicated loans will be maturing through end-2018, with USD (EUR) redemptions accounting for some 26% (4%) of the total. Countries that face a relatively heavy burden of upcoming USD redemptions in 2018 include China, Russia, Korea and Brazil. Chart 2: Change in Government Debt-to-Revenue Source: IIF, IMF Chart 3: Change in Private Non-Financial Sector Debt Source: IIF Chart 4: Change in Non-Fin. Sector FX debt-to-GDP Source: IIF 0100200300400500600700800-50050100150200UKJapanU.S.MM BrazilItalyFrance EACanadaMexicoRussiaEMIndonesiaGermanyChinaIndiaTurkeypercentage points, change in debt (% of revenue) since 2007Change in debt as % of revenue since 2007Debt as % of revenue - 2017Q3 (rhs)-9-6-303691215Hong KongFranceChinaSwitzerlandTurkeyCanadaSingapore UKKoreaJapanEMMexicoGermany U.S. MMIndonesia EARussiaIndia ItalyBrazilTotalHouseholdsNon-financial corporatespercentage points, change in debt (% of GDP) since end-201531ppts-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7BrazilColombiaPolandSouth AfricaIndiaMalaysiaSingaporeIndonesiaKoreaArgentinaThailandMexicoChinaChileIsraelTurkeyCzech Rep.Saudi Arabiapercentage points since end-2015 iif Copyright 2018. The Institute of International Finance, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 3 Chart 6: Change in Emerging Market Debt-to-GDP Source: BIS, Haver, IIF. Chart 8: Change in EM Non-Fin. Corp. Ratings Source: Bloomberg, IIF. Chart 10: EM Debt Maturity Profile Source: Thomson One, IIF. Chart 5: Change in Mature Market Debt-to-GDP Source: BIS, Fed, ECB, BoJ, Haver, IIF. Chart 7: China Debt-to-GDP Source: BIS, Haver, IIF. Chart 9: EM FX Denominated Bond Issuance Source: Thomson One, IIF. -10 -5 0 5 10 15ArgentinaIndiaMalaysiaMexicoKoreaThailandS. ArabiaKenyaS. AfricaGhanaPolandIndonesiaColombiaBrazilRussiaNigeriaChinaChilePakistanCzech Rep.TurkeyEgyptpercentage points, difference between 2016Q3 and 2017Q3HouseholdNon-fin corporatesGovernmentFinancial sector-140-120-100-80-60-40-20020402012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017number, avg. of S&P, Fitch & Moodys ratings Downgrades Downgrade watchesUpgrades Upgrade watches02004006008001000120014001600180014 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24USD billionBondsSyndicated loans 2018: $1.5 trillion-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10SpainPortugalItalyUKNorwayAustriaEAGermanyMMAustraliaCanadaU.S.SwedenFranceJapanpercentage points, difference between 2016Q3 and 2017Q3HouseholdsNon-fin corp.GovernmentFinancial sector05010015020025030005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17HouseholdGovernmentNFC SOENFC POEFinancial sector% of GDP0.00.10.20.30.40.50.62012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018USD trillion, 12-month moving sum, EM26 corp and govt. USDEUROthersSource: Thomson One, IIF. iif Copyright 2018. The Institute of International Finance, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 4 Table 2: Total Global Debt by Sector % of GDP Households Non-financial corporates Government Financial Sector Q3 2017 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2016 Global 59.11 58.78 91.99 92.63 86.72 88.30 80.13 81.38 Mature markets 73.40 73.62 89.62 89.87 109.95 113.42 108.83 110.89 U.S. 77.23 77.65 72.08 71.34 99.98 101.13 81.44 83.12 Euro Area 57.84 58.43 102.91 104.66 103.87 108.89 126.30 132.08 Japan 53.95 54.40 102.14 99.54 221.35 228.08 146.21 138.65 UK 86.29 86.56 84.49 86.00 104.25 112.80 179.71 184.37 Emerging markets 35.20 33.77 95.96 97.24 47.84 46.25 32.12 32.00 EM Asia 45.64 43.22 129.24 131.24 49.42 48.00 40.59 39.70 China 46.74 43.30 163.19 166.30 46.46 44.00 38.44 36.73 India 10.72 10.50 45.79 49.20 67.60 68.60 5.17 5.48 Indonesia 16.71 16.70 22.34 23.10 28.62 28.50 7.24 7.20 S. Korea 94.30 90.90 100.63 101.70 40.45 41.90 83.39 86.89 Malaysia 67.08 70.40 67.08 66.80 52.66 53.40 33.09 33.18 Singapore 60.19 61.00 119.98 118.90 114.84 109.50 189.66 187.05 Hong Kong 68.94 66.70 257.54 232.20 71.90 74.20 139.78 134.61 Thailand 68.26 70.20 49.04 49.10 31.90 31.50 40.43 40.89 Pakistan 2.62 2.45 14.28 11.85 69.00 66.55 1.40 1.10 EM Europe 20.54 20.18 57.32 55.96 28.78 28.55 18.49 18.27 Czech Republic 31.70 30.70 58.07 56.90 42.37 42.90 35.04 30.90 Hungary 19.89 20.30 69.38 72.80 81.05 83.50 23.83 25.50 Poland 36.16 36.50 48.12 48.00 55.60 56.10 21.13 21.40 Turkey 17.64 17.50 69.05 63.30 28.83 27.90 25.71 22.95 Russia 16.35 15.70 53.38 53.40 15.97 15.60 12.11 13.24 EM Latam 20.15 20.49 37.55 38.87 60.15 57.63 25.57 27.75 Brazil 21.50 22.90 41.21 43.90 81.32 74.20 35.95 39.12 Mexico 17.00 16.50 26.48 27.20 36.05 36.80 15.59 17.50 Argentina 6.98 5.80 14.42 12.50 53.25 61.80 8.64 9.40 Chile 43.89 42.10 100.81 101.10 26.28 23.30 44.95 44.88 Colombia 24.97 25.30 40.41 40.96 45.22 43.90 5.42 6.26 AFME 17.17 17.74 38.75 39.07 42.09 39.03 7.12 8.05 Israel 41.86 41.50 69.93 69.70 61.72 62.50 9.81 11.15 South Africa 34.04 34.70 38.46 37.70 54.25 52.90 22.00 24.67 Saudi Arabia 13.88 15.10 49.09 52.30 15.77 11.60 3.84 5.58 Nigeria 3.69 3.86 13.51 13.55 20.47 16.56 2.61 2.00 Ghana 7.56 7.82 27.91 27.44 71.15 73.16 3.94 3.30 Kenya 7.98 8.22 26.94 30.54 55.41 52.36 2.63 3.41 Egypt 7.52 8.08 29.43 24.57 100.35 94.95 4.50 3.91 Sources: IIF, BIS, Haver, National Sources. iif Copyright 2018. The Institute of International Finance, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 5 Table 3: Currency Breakdown of EM Sectoral Debt % of GDP Non-financial corporates Government Financial Sector Households As of Septem-ber, 2017 LC FC in USD in EURO LC FC in USD in EURO LC FC in USD in EURO LC FC in USD in EURO Emerging markets EM Asia China 155.4 7.8 6.8 0.6 46.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 32.8 5.6 4.6 0.5 46.7 0.0 - - India 36.9 8.8 7.5 0.8 66.0 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.2 4.0 3.5 0.2 10.7 0.0 - - Indonesia 11.9 10.4 9.2 0.4 20.2 8.4 6.9 1.0 2.7 4.5 4.1 0.1 16.5 0.2 - - S. Korea 83.0 17.6 15.5 1.0 40.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 59.2 24.2 19.6 2.5 93.7 0.6 - - Malaysia 48.2 18.9 13.0 0.5 51.4 1.2 1.2 0.0 12.9 20.2 15.8 1.5 66.8 0.3 - - Singapore 57.7 62.3 50.4 3.6 114.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.5 149.1 109.9 8.6 49.0 11.2 - - Hong Kong 47.6 210.0 166.1 19.2 70.5 1.4 1.4 0.0 33.0 106.8 85.6 9.0 66.1 2.9 - - Thailand 37.3 11.7 9.8 0.4 31.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 32.0 8.5 7.4 0.3 68.1 0.1 - - EM Europe Czech Republic 35.2 22.9 2.4 19.7 37.0 5.3 0.0 5.3 27.1 7.9 0.9 6.8 31.6 0.1 - - Hungary 34.5 34.8 11.7 22.8 62.6 18.4 12.4 4.5 6.5 17.3 7.9 9.3 19.7 0.1 - - Poland 33.2 14.9 3.0 8.5 37.8 17.8 3.1 13.2 11.4 9.7 2.0 4.8 21.5 14.6 - - Turkey 31.9 37.1 20.5 16.1 17.9 10.9 7.2 2.8 3.8 21.9 15.3 6.2 17.6 0.0 - - Russia 35.1 18.3 12.1 5.3 12.1 3.9 3.8 0.1 4.6 7.5 6.2 0.7 16.1 0.2 - - EM Latam Brazil 25.4 15.8 14.8 0.8 78.6 2.7 2.2 0.5 28.1 7.8 7.4 0.3 21.5 0.0 - - Mexico 7.3 19.2 14.5 3.1 26.7 9.3 3.9 1.1 13.1 2.5 2.1 0.3 17.0 0.0 - - Argentina 8.7 5.8 5.6 0.1 10.0 43.3 33.6 7.1 7.7 1.0 0.7 0.0 7.0 0.0 - - Chile 65.4 35.4 34.3 0.5 21.0 5.3 3.0 2.3 36.8 8.1 6.9 0.1 42.2 1.7 - - Colombia 27.4 13.1 12.4 0.3 31.5 13.7 12.7 0.8 0.4 5.1 4.9 0.1 24.9 0.1 - - AFME Israel 44.5 25.4 18.5 5.0 51.2 10.5 7.8 2.7 8.2 1.6 1.2 0.2 41.5 0.3 - - S. Africa 22.3 16.2 10.3 3.6 47.4 6.9 5.7 0.6 12.9 9.1 3.4 1.4 33.6 0.4 - - S. Arabia 39.8 9.3 8.4 0.6 9.0 6.8 6.8 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.8 0.2 13.9 0.0 - - Sources: IIF, BIS, Haver, National Sources, IIF estimates *LC=local currency; FC=foreign currency
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