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,China Refining Industry Outlook and Oil Demand Peak,March 25, 2019,CONTENTS,1,In the future: oil demand growth shifting from fuel- driven to petrochemical feedstock-driven,3,Transformation and upgrading of refining industry in China under a new round of investment,2,The refining industry in China ranking among the top in the world,The refining industry in China ranking among the top in the world,The refinery capacity in China ranks among the top in the world, and is still in expansion,State-wned refineries increased ca.acity t- meet the gr-wing rigid demand,Inde.endent refiners began t- accelerate their ex.ansi-n,Structural adjustment is c-ming,l In 2018, Chinas refinery capacity came to 16.8 Mb/d. New capacity mainly came from independent refiners.l In response to the upgrading of oil quality, refineries in China are becoming increasingly complex.,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,50%,60%,70%,80%,90%,100 %,200 0-2008,200 8-2014,201 4-2018,The share of new capacity from independent refiners is increasing,国营炼厂,独立炼厂,State-owned refinery,78%,70%,66%,72,68%66%64%62%60%,%70%,76%74%72%,80%1675478%,15000,25000,35000 5622,45000,55000,65000,75000,85000,95000,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,2012,2014,2016,2018,Stages of growth in refinery capacity (kb/d),产能,产能增量,开工率,Capacity,Capacity increment,Refinery utilization,Independent refinery,4,The increasing crude oil processing meets domestic demand,l By 2018, Chinas refining throughput was 12.1 Mb/d, and the dependency on imported crude oil came to 70.8%.l Since the release of imported oil quotas in 2015, the growth rate of refining throughput has risen from 4.1% to 5.4%.l The utilization rate of independent refineries increased from 30% in 2014 to 60% in 2018, and the share of imported crude oil in processing feedstock increased from 21% to 71%.,80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,200020012002200320042005200620072008200%201020112012201320142015201620172018,The crude oil processing volume is rising (million b/d),原3加15,0外依存2,AAGR 8.3%,AAGR 8.1%,AAGR 4.3%,AAGR 5.8%,crude oil processing volume,Dependency on imported crude,21%,24%,45%,58%,71%,55%,58%,49%,37%,25%,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,The bottleneck of crude oil for independent refineries is eliminated (10,000 tons),4口原3,国产原3,其他,Imported crude,Domestic crude,Other sources,5,Urgent issue: large numbers of refineries with small average capacity,l By 2018, the average refinery capacity in China was only 87 Kb/d, which is only half of the global average level.l Excluding the outdated capacity of less than 40kb/d, the average utilization rate could be around 82% in 2018.,54,70,49,15,0,100,200,500,600,700,40,40-100,100-200,300400Number of refineries,6,217,5,002,3,484,87,0,50,100,0,2000,4000,6000,8000,10000,美国,中国,俄罗斯,印度,日本,The top 5 oil refining countries (1,000 b/d)2018 China refinery capacity distribution(1,000 b/d)2000025018,1334,Total capacity,U.S.,China,RussiaIndiaJapanAverage refinery capacity,6,In the future:Oil demand growth shifting from fuel-driven to petrochemical feedstock-driven,Outlook for demand-The key driver for China oil demand is shifting from fuel to petrochemical feedstock,The rough picture:l The future oil consumption will peak due to factors such as economy, population, fuel economy and EV deployment.l Compared with the relative rigid demand of jet fuel and petrochemical feedstock, gasoline and diesel are more likely to be replaced.l There is still uncertainty about vehicle fuel economy improvement and the development of electric vehicles.,12.4,14.5,12.0,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,2018年,I车,化 工,民 亢,效率提 升,替 代,2025- 2030年,I车,化 工,民 亢,效率提 升,电动I车,替 代,2050年,The factors affecting oil demand are changing (million b/d),2018,电s动I车,Transport,Petrochemical,Aviation,Fuel efficiency,EV,2025-2030Alternative,Alternative sEV,Fuel efficiency,Aviation,Petrochemical,Transport,2050,0.0,2.0,6.0,8.0,10. 0,12. 0,14. 0,16. 0,0.0,1.0,2.0,3.0,4.0,5.0,6.0,7.0,8.0,I油,柴油,煤油,化工轻油,石油-右,Around 2050,Diesel: 3.5Around 2015,Gasoline: 3.2 Chemical light oil: 3.7,Around 2025,Kerosene:1.8,Around 2045 4.0,Demand for oil and oil products (million b/d)Oil: 14.5,Light chemical oil,Oil (right axis),20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050GasolineDieselJet fuel,8,Driver shifting-Fuel-oriented oil consumption in China is decreasing,l Chinas oil demand reached 12.4 million b/d in 2018. Whats more, the oil consumption structure has changed or is about to change.l Instead of transportation fuel, petrochemical feedstock will become the major refining product by 2050.,53%,51%,47%,35%,15%,16%,25%,36%,12%,11%,8%,8%,0%,10%,20% 37%,30%,40% 9%,50%,60% 26%,70%,90%80%,100 %,200 0200 5201 0201 5202 0202 5203 0203 5204 0204 5205 0,The trend of oil consumption structure in China,G通,化工,工业,NO,农业,建筑,I他,Transport,Transport,ndustry:Oil 0:nsumpti:n 120lin2s w5il2 NG .n1 2l20tri0ity us2 in0r2.s2 in t52 .1v.n021 st.42 :3 in1ustri.liC.ti:n.,Petrochemical industryIn :r12r t: m22t t52 4r:win4 12m.n1 3:r 0l:t5in4 .n1 1.ily us2E, :il 0:nsumpti:n is in0r2.sin4.,Transportation2000 2014: ,52 4r:wt5 in 0.r :wn2rs5ip 1r:v2 t52 4r:wt5 :3 :il 0:nsumpti:n.2014 2030: C:mm2r0i.l v25i0l2 :wn2rs5ip tr2n1s t: b2 s.tur.t21 .n1 3u2l 20:n:my is b2in4 impr:v21.2030 2050: ,r.v2l m:12s will 05.n42 .n1 t52 12v2l:pm2nt :3 E- will .002l2r.t2.,PetrochemiIndustryDaily useAgriculture cal,ConstructioOthers n,9,Macro driver- Large potential of per capita consumption and the gradually emerging demographic impact,l Compared with other countries, the energy consumption per capita GDP of China is still rising.l In the future, Chinas GDP growth will slow down, but the quality of economic growth will be improved.l The fertility rate is declining in China and the population will peak before 2030.,13.7,14.2,13.4,12%,25%,10. 0,11. 0,12. 0,13. 0,14. 0,15. 0,2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050,The population in China is aging (100 million),总人口,老年人口-右,Total population,4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0,0,10000,20000,40000,50000,60000,Kg per capita,30000US$ per capita,GDP per capita & Energy consumption per capita,德国,日本,韩国,美国,中国,Oil consumption peaked,Germany,Japan,Korea,U.S.,China,Elderly population,10,Industrial driver-Broad prospects for China auto industry in the take-off period,l Currently, the vehicle ownership in China was 130 vehicles per 1000 people, which is still in the take-off period of auto industry compared with developed countries.l Considering the high density of population and the lack of oil and gas resources in China, the saturation level of vehicle ownership will not be too high. Even so, the vehicle ownership will still double that of now by 2050.,100,11,200,300,400,500,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050,Forecast of passenger vehicle ownership in China (million),2009: 20 per 1000 people0,2015: 100 per 1000 people,2017: per 1000 people , 180 million,2050: 350 per 1000 people , 470 million,Industrial driver-Improved fuel economy offsets the growth in transportation fuel demand,7.5,6.9,5,4.5,3.2,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,20052010,2015,Fuel consumption rate of new vehicles continues to declineL/100km),欧州法规,日本法规,美国法规,中国法规,Europe,Stage I&II,Stage III,Stage IV,Long-term planning,l Compared with Japan and Europe, China still has great potential to improve the fuel economy. Downsizing and hybrid technologies are feasible.l If the fuel economy target of China is on schedule, it will save about 100 million tons of oil by 2050.,0,50,100,150,200,250,300,350,2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050,由耗不降低,由耗降低,100 million tons of oil,Significant oil savings from fuel economy improvements (million tons),Japan,202020252030U.S.China,Current fuel economyImproving fuel economy,12,Alternative driver-Diversity of oil alternatives,l Currently, natural gas and coal-to-liquid, coal-to-olefin are the main oil substitutes.l After 2025, electric vehicles will replace natural gas as the first alternative.,NG 36%,EV 7%,Biofuel 9%,Methanol 1%,Coal-to-oil 12%,Coal chemical industry35%,2018,NG 12%,EV 58%,Biofuel 7%,Coal-to oil 3%,Coal chemical industry 20%,2050,4%,9%,16%,25%,34%,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,30%,35%,40%,0,5000,10000,15000,20000,25000,30000,35000,2015,2020,2030,2040,2050,The consumption of oil alternatives is increasing (kb/d),天然气,电动汽车,生物燃料,甲醇,煤化工,煤制油,占石油需求比例,48,1320,282,4360,6260,The share in oil consumption,NG,EV,Biofuel,Methanol,Coal-to- chemicals,Coal-to- oil,13,Electric vehicles-The leading role of China in the global market 也,l In 2018, China EV sales accounted for about half of global EV sales.EV Sales: 1.26 million, market penetration rate: 4%EV ownership: 3.1 million, accounting for 1.6% of the total domestic vehicle stockl With clear government targets, EV may become the direction for the future auto industry in China.,58,20,24,13,2010,2014,2015,2016,2017,中国,美国,欧洲,其他,74,54,32,ChinaU.S.EuropeOthersTargets for EV development in major countries,123,76,72,40,2010,2014,2015,2016,2017,Global sales of BEV+PHEV (10,000)Global ownership of BEV+PHEV (10,000)115,中国,美国,欧洲,其他,311,198,124,70,China,U.S.,Europe,Others,14,Electric vehicles-The decisive period: 2025-2030 ,l 2025: EV will reach cost parity with conventional vehicles, which makes large-scale promotion possible.l After 2030: Level 5 autonomous driving will be ready to be commercialized.l There is still uncertainty in the development of EV.,Technology roadmap for EV development,0,200,400,600,800,1000,1200,0,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,900,$/kwh,km,续航里程,电池成本-右,1G lithium battery,2G lithium battery,Next generation Lithium metal,Fuel cell battery,Lithium iron phosphate,NCMNickel-rich NCMLi-rich manganese based cathode,Solid state lithium metal batteryLithium sulfur battery Lithium oxygen battery,400-500km, no mileage anxiety,100$/kwh, EV will reach cost parity with conventional vehicles,High specific energy and safer,201020152020202520302035204020452050All-electric-rangeBattery cost-right axis,15,Industrial driver-Significant growth of oil demand in petrochemical industry,Naphtha 84%,CPP/DC C2%,MTO 5%,CTO 9%,2015,Naphtha 61%,Coal-based Naphtha 1%,CPP/DCC 1%,MTO 7%,CTO 22%,Ethane 5%,LPG 2%,Acetylene 1%,2050,l In the future, with the improvement of living standards, auto, home appliances, textiles and real estate industries in China will continue to develop. Significant growth is expected in ethylene and PX consumption.l Despite the diversification trend, Ethylene feedstock will still be dominated by petroleum-based feedstock.,3761,5230,7000,7700,8000,1997,2605,3443,3793,3800,2015,2020,2030,2040,2050,Ethylene and PX demand (10,000 tons),当量乙烯消费量,当量PX消费量,Changes in feedstock structure for ethylene,ethylene equivalent consumption,PX equivalent consumption,13,Transformation and upgrading of refining industry in China under a new round of investment,Advanced capacity will replace outdated capacity in the future,l China will have 4.32 million b/d new capacity and phase out 2.1 million b/d backward capacity before 2025.l The total capacity will reach 18.8 million b/d by 2025.,New independent refineries 49%,Traditional independent refineries 2%,State-owned refineries 49%,Shares of new capacity during 2019-2025,900,4320,790,2630,-460,-2100,-1640,-3000,-2000,-1000,0,100 0,200 0,300 0,400 0,500 0,2019,2020,Changes of capacity in China (1,000 b/d),新增产能,淘汰产能,New capacity,20252019-2025Phasing-out of outdated capacity,18,New capacity will be more concentrated, larger and more integrated,19,The new capacity is mainly located in bases in the eastern coastal areas.,l Under competition and the pressure of environmental protection, new capacity will be larger, more concentrated and integrated, and be more involved in the export market.l Crude oil will be fully used in the processing.,320,400 400400,87,炼油能力（干桶/日）,35%,50%,46%,44%,50%,37%,66%,24%,12%,61%,恒力,浙江,盛虹,华南*,当前全国平均,Hengli,化工原料收率成品油收率Zhejiang Petrochemical,Southern China,Huizhou, Guangdong,Gulei II,Ningbo, Zhejiang,Lianyungang, Jiangsu,Panjin, Liaoning,Sino-Kuwait, Zhanjiang,Caojing, Shangha,Changxing Island, Dalian,Caofeidian, Hebei,Shenghong,rage level,Yield of petrochemical,feedstock,Yield of refined oil,Refineries are seeking a way out according to their own characteristics,State-owned existing enterpriseExpansion: 15 Mtons/year refining capacity and 1.2 Mtons/year Ethylene capacity Overall optimization to produce petrochemical feedstock,Integrated independent enterpriseExpansion: 20 Mtons/year refining capacity, 1.4 Mtons/year Ethylene capacity and 5.2 Mtons/year PX capacity The adoption of Diesel HC process,State-owned new enterpriseExpansion: 16 Mtons/year refining capacity, 2Mtons/year Ethylene capacity and 1.6 Mtons/year PX capacity The adoption of H-oil process and cancel FCC units,Local independent refineriesPhasing-out: outdated capacity less than 2 Mtons/year Expansion: 30 Mtons/year integrated units,Transformation path,Emission reduction from the source Process control enhancementEnd treatment,IOT in refineries Process optimization Monitoring of operation,Environmentally friendly & Digital,Increasing influence of China in the Asia-Pacific refined oil export market,l In 2018, Chinas refined oil exports increased by 1.9 times compared with 2010 and became the fourth largest exporter in the Asia-Pacific region. (Top 3: Korea, Japan and India)l Due to the low yield of refined oil in new capacity, the net export of refined oil will not increase much by 2020-2025.l In the future, large refineries in coastal areas will target both domestic and international markets.,6%,7%,8%,10%,10%,11%,11%,0%,2%,4%,6%,8%,10%,12%,-200,0,200,400,600,800,1000,
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