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A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit Turbulent times Measuring real-time shifts in a volatile oil marketThe world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. 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We work globally, supporting senior management with strategic initiatives, M base 100 = January 2012)TURBULENT TIMES MEASURING REAL-TIME SHIFTS IN A VOLATILE OIL MARKET The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 3 (a) Forecast. Sources: International Energy Agency actuals; EIU forecasts. -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Non-OECD OECD Global total 23(a) 22(a) 21(a) 20(a) 19(a) 18 17 16 15 2014 Growth in crude oil consumption (%, year on year) Measuring the adequacy of global oil suppliesthe net change in oil supplies and forecast consumptionwill be critical to understand how prices will move in the coming years. TURBULENT TIMES MEASURING REAL-TIME SHIFTS IN A VOLATILE OIL MARKET The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 4 The Economist Intelligence Unit has partnered with CargoMetrics to develop a high-frequency indicator of the adequacy of global oil supplies: the Oil Adequacy Index. The index harnesses CargoMetrics real-time data on crude oil exports from OPEC and Russia, which reflect real output from the region 8-10 weeks ahead of official published data. Combined with weekly crude oil production data from the US, this provides a proxy of total changes in global oil supply week to week. This is set against our market-leading forecasts for global oil consumption, which take into account the impact of economic growth and changing trends on the energy intensity of GDP . The index therefore provides a weekly leading indicator of the adequacy of global oil supplies. Source: CargoMetrics; US Energy Information Administration; International Energy Agency; EIU forecasts. 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 18 Dec Nov 2017 Oil Adequacy Index (Weekly net change in global oil supply and consumption; 50 = unchanged week on week) TURBULENT TIMES MEASURING REAL-TIME SHIFTS IN A VOLATILE OIL MARKET The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 5 A more sensitive market G lobal oil supplies surged in 2014-16, sheltering the market from factors that would normally influence oil pricesincluding geopolitical risk and shifting national energy strategies. OPEC attempted to match the rapid growth in US shale oil production in order to maintain market share, which pushed OECD oil stocks to a record high of nearly 3.1bn barrels by the third quarter of 2016 (equivalent to nearly 32 days of global consumption in that quarter). Market conditions have changed significantly since OPEC and Russia agreed to rein in production in November 2016. Unprecedented output restraint from most OPEC countries and Russia, together with unexpected supply crunches from more volatile producers, including Venezuela, Libya and Angola, have brought global oil stocks back down to below the previous five-year average. As a result of this, the crude oil market has become increasingly sensitive to shiftsboth potential and realin global supply. Measuring real-time changes in supply will be increasingly important, because risks to global supply are multiplying. Source: International Energy Agency. 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 18 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 17 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 16 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 15 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 13 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 2012 OECD oil stocks (Commercial, on land; m barrels) Previous ve-year averageTURBULENT TIMES MEASURING REAL-TIME SHIFTS IN A VOLATILE OIL MARKET The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 6 Second-guessing Iran A t the time of the Oil Adequacy Indexs launch, a number of risks stand to cause unexpected shifts in global supply levels. Picking up these shifts in real time, as measured by the index, will shed more light on where prices will move next. On November 4th the US imposed sanctions on Iran, the third-largest OPEC producer, following a decision by the US president, Donald Trump, to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal in May. The US pressured Saudi Arabia in mid-2018 to increase its output to compensate for falling supplies from Iran, but this was not enough to calm market fears of a supply crunch, and the price of Brent crude soared above US$85/b in October. At the last minute, the US unexpectedly issued waivers to eight of the largest importers of Iranian oil, in an effort to curb rising prices. These movements have thrown Irans oil sectorand therefore the broader oil marketinto disarray. In the months leading up to the November 4th deadline, Iran began to apply tactics meant to conceal its real export volumes, including turning off ships transponders for several days at a time and performing multiple ship-to-ship transfers mid-journey. Despite the waiver issue in November, these practices were still ongoing at the time of writing, meaning that official published data on Iranian oil production and exports will underestimate real volumes significantly. However, by supplementing its transponder-based tracking of Iranian crude oil shipments with other sources, including satellite imagery, CargoMetrics is able to provide more accurate and timely data on real Iranian export volumes. For weeks when the skies are sufficiently clear in the Persian Gulf to permit satellite observation, the data show that Irans weekly seaborne oil export volumes in October and November have only fallen by around 25% compared with May-June. This is a much more modest decline than official published data would imply. Source: CargoMetrics. Seaborne crude oil exports from Iran, 2018 (barrels per week) Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 70-80% TURBULENT TIMES MEASURING REAL-TIME SHIFTS IN A VOLATILE OIL MARKET The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 7 The important question in the coming monthswhich will have a major impact on domestic economic and political stabilityis just how much access Iran will maintain to export markets in Asia. If the US were to reverse its policy on sanctions waivers, which is possible given Mr Trumps unpredictability, this could disrupt the market again. If Irans exports were to fall below 10m b/w for several weeks (from around 14.5m b/w currently), this could push the Iranian government to take more aggressive measures in the region, creating yet more oil-price volatility. TURBULENT TIMES MEASURING REAL-TIME SHIFTS IN A VOLATILE OIL MARKET The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 8 Shifts on the horizon A nother key question for the market is how OPEC and Russia will adjust their production to compensate for Iran. OPEC and Russia are reportedly considering further production cuts in 2019, in an effort to boost Brent crude prices. Saudi officials have assured the market since mid-2018 that the kingdom has the capacity to moderate its production and stabilise supply levels; its export levels, however, remain roughly on a par with those seen over the previous six months, at an average of 53m b/w in the first three weeks of October. The investigation into the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist and a prominent critic of the regime, also threatens to strain diplomatic ties between the US and Saudi, and the looming threat of sanctions on key Saudi officials could spark another shift in Saudi export policy. Russian seaborne exports in October and November had climbed by more than 4% compared with May levels, after the government agreed in June, along with OPEC, to ease production cuts. Although the sanction waivers on Iran have turned the tables, causing Saudi Arabia to consider further production cuts, Russia will struggle to rein in its partially private-owned oil producers. Russia is ramping up its strategic competition with the US, and the government sees Russias role as a key global energy supplier as a means of cementing its geopolitical importance. We therefore expect its export levels to continue to inch up; if they rise at too quick a pace, this could push Brent crude prices down further. On top of this, a number of smaller suppliers will be important to watch in the coming months. Nigeria faces a heavily contested presidential election in 2019 and tends to see an uptick in oil-sector Source: CargoMetrics. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 16/11/2018 09/11/2018 02/11/2018 26/10/2018 19/10/2018 12/10/2018 05/10/2018 28/09/2018 21/09/2018 14/09/2018 07/09/2018 31/08/2018 24/08/2018 17/08/2018 10/08/2018 03/08/2018 OPEC and Russia seaborne crude oil exports (000 barrels/week) Other OPEC Iran Iraq Russia Saudi ArabiaTURBULENT TIMES MEASURING REAL-TIME SHIFTS IN A VOLATILE OIL MARKET The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 9 militancy (including potential disruptions to pipeline or port infrastructure) around elections, as militant groups seek concessions from those in power. Algeria faces the constant risk of disruptive leadership change, as the 81-year-old president, at the helm of a core of leaders who have ruled the country since the 1960s, is seriously ill. The Venezuelan government has few options regarding a way out of its current political and debt crises, and oil exports are unlikely to recover in the near term. In Libya, the political situation improved in the third quarter of 2018, but stability is far from guaranteed as various factions compete for control of the government. The Oil Adequacy Index, harnessing CargoMetrics real-time intelligence on crude seaborne exports, will capture these week-on-week supply movements, 8-10 weeks before official national data are published. The global oil market is becoming increasingly tripartite, with the three leading producersRussia, the US and Saudi Arabiaare largely setting the tone for global production trends. As a result, the supply component of the index also includes weekly crude oil production data from the US. Although US crude oil production surged ahead in 2018rising by an estimated 14% year on year in volume termsoil firms are still exercising considerable financial restraint. As of November 23rd, there were 138 more oil rigs in operation in the US than at the same point of 2017and 80% of these are located in the Permian Basin, the cheapest region in which to operate in the US. A high number of wells have also been drilled and uncompleted (DUC); the number of DUC wells in the Permian basin jumped to 3,722 in September 2018, more than double the stock of DUC wells at the same point of 2016. This indicates that oil companies are investing judiciously and are focusing on maintaining profitability, rather than just boosting production. If oil prices were to undergo a sustained decline over 1-2 months, this could quickly show up in terms of lower investment and eventually lower production levels from the US. We forecast that US production will rise further in 2019, but by a more modest 6% year on year. Sources: US Energy Information Administration; Baker Hughes. 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Active oil rigs WTI average weekly price (US$/b) Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan 18 Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan 17 Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan 2016 WTI price and active oil rigs in the US
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