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A case study on real-time control in manufacturing5G business valueAn Ericsson Consumer vibration and “chatter” during milling is a very common problem.3. There are approximately 5 million industrial sites in Europe alone, compared with a total of 4 million mobile base stations in the world.1 Equipping each industrial site with mobile communications opens up large opportunities for operators to expand their business. rod.eionet.europa.eu/obligations/7213 Ericsson | 5G business valuePutting 5G to the testThe BLISK case presents a clear business opportunity for 5G to support Industry 4.0. By tackling production challenges with 5G solutions, both BLISK manufacturing and industry in general can reap the rewards. 2The best-known example is the Pensacola aircraft crash in 1996, when minute quality deficiency in the BLISK prevented cooling fluid from proper effect3Chatter is a specific type of vibration that is “self-induced” or “self-excited”, i.e. a consequence of the interaction of the tool with the workpiece in conditions where the damping behavior is significantly smaller than the excitation4Increased aspect ratios are increases in the ratio between the absolute blade length (from the root to the tip) and the chord length (length in air flow direction, length of the tip from front to back)The opportunity There is an opportunity to improve manufacturing processes by enabling connectivity through smart sensors and real-time transmissions. The benefits of these technologies alone justify the installation of a private enterprise cellular network in a factory and the value potential is considerable. Once a 5G network is established, a truly automated factory can be realized. An array of connected devices such as machines, sensors, materials and robots can be managed through one standardized network, with the correct latency and bandwidth allocated as necessary. This is where the greatest opportunity lies for operators. The challenge The BLISK milling process today presents several challenges, not least that of ensuring maximum quality. Given there have been instances of failing BLISKs which have led to severe accidents, ensuring maximum quality in the production process is essential to guarantee safety of the product.2A key aspect of current BLISK production and metal processing in general is that the process is very difficult to monitor, meaning the end result is not known until milling finishes. Given the milling process can last a full day but is capable of reaching 100 hours or more, and rework is often as high as 25 percent, the overall production time is high. Milling issues, such as vibration patterns affecting the end result, could be revealed by monitoring the process in real time. This data could then be used to instantly optimize the milling process, limiting the need for rework. This type of early detection will also bring significant savings, as costs increase the longer failures go undetected.Failure detection is a challenge that exists throughout the manufacturing industry as a whole, though the BLISK case is a more acute example. Vibration and “chatter” during milling is a very common problem, which seems to occur in an unpredictable manner even in stable serial production.3The next generation will see the geometry of BLISKs continue to evolve; thinner blades with increased aspect ratios make them more flexible and therefore prone to vibration, which will further increase the production challenge.425% A main challenge is the 25 percent rework in the BLISK production process. 4 Ericsson | 5G business valueFigure 2: The Industry 4.0 maturity modelIndustry 4.0DigitalizationComputerizationConnectivityVisibilityTransparencyPredictabilityAdaptabilityMaturityThe solution The Fraunhofer IPT project tested automated production, monitoring and real-time control of the BLISK production process to identify issues and areas where improvements could be made by introducing intelligence to the system. A maturity model that demonstrates the solution (see Figure 2) has been devised, which can be summarized in four steps: 1. Enable monitoring and data collection to optimize future milling 2. Enable real-time monitoring to stop defective parts from further processing, or localize and describe defects to initiate rework 3. Enable real-time control to adjust the process in motion, for example by altering the milling tool spinning speed 4. Enable a fully automated factory the total number of connected devices can be combined and managed as one ecosystem These solutions can be achieved through added and/or improved components (see Figure 3).5G holds the key As current technology is not capable of supporting this solution, 5G is key.The main benefit of 5G in this use case is that it can provide very low, stable and predictable latency. For real-time control, the sensors information needs to be processed and acted on within 1 millisecond. 5G technology can enable the control loop by providing this low latency capability, enabling its application in BLISK production. Miniaturized sensors and 5G communication modules are also critical to wireless data collection and the communication capability for cases like this one.The introduction of 5G will also bring more tightly controlled monitoring capabilities, meaning that the performance of a critical sensor, such as the BLISK vibration sensor, can be monitored at all times.1 millisecond 1 millisecond is the ultra-low latency needed for real-time control of the BLISK manufacturing process and can be provided through 5G technology capabilities.Sensor Attached directly to the part (glue)Communication module (attached to the part)Milling toolCNC milling machineControl systemFigure 3: Illustration of the solution components5 Ericsson | 5G business valueThe economic valueThe potential for improving production economics for the BLISK is very high and is a revealing illustration of how incredible value can be realized when introducing high performance connectivity to the factory floor.The rework rate of BLISKs today is approximately 25 percent, meaning that 1 in every 4 BLISKs needs to be reworked. Given their high cost, any decrease in the rework rate is of significant value. If the rework rate through automation can be decreased from 25 to 15 percent, the machine time will in turn be reduced, which can be translated into a machine cost reduction of EUR 3,600 per BLISK.6The market for BLISKs is seeing strong growth. A typical BLISK factory produces 40 per day, including rework. For one factory, the annual saving through real-time monitoring and control enabled by 5G would amount to EUR 27 million. Assuming 100,000 BLISKs are produced annually gives an idea of the order of magnitude.7Globally, this means value potential of around EUR 360 million annually for current BLISK production alone; a significant metal processing operation, but still only a fraction of total global metal processing.8The sustainability value As mentioned earlier, introducing 5G into the BLISK case could lead to a significant reduction in production time. This will give rise to decreased electricity consumption, which in turn means the potential to decrease annual CO2-equivalent emissions by 360 metric tons if applied to the overall global BLISK production.9Higher-quality BLISK production also creates opportunities to reduce fuel consumption and thereby greenhouse gas emissions when operating jet engines. Increased production quality means BLISKs operate more efficiently, reducing fuel consumption and, in turn, lowering CO2emissions. Assuming an average 2 percent higher efficiency is achieved, global CO2emissions could be reduced by 16 million metric tons annually. These savings equal the total annual consumption-based CO2-equivalent annual emissions of approximately 1.4 million people in Sweden, a greater number than the population of the capital, Stockholm.10Another way to view these savings is to compare them with flying; 16 million metric tons of CO2emissions is the same amount that 4.4 million people flying from London to Bangkok would emit.Unveiling the value The value of the connected solution for BLISK production has been analyzed from both an economic and a sustainability perspective.5EUR 360 million An annual saving of EUR 360 million can be made on BLISK production through 5G-enabled real-time monitoring and control.16 million metric tons 16 million metric tons in global CO2 emissions can be reduced annually, assuming 2% more efficient jet engines resulting from higher-quality BLISKs.5In addition, increased value will be released by having one network serve all operations instead of several different networks. Increased flexibility in manufacturing to better serve customers is another value realized through Industry 4.0. However, these values have not been studied in this report6Machining is assumed to account for 50 percent of the total average BLISK production cost7There are approximately 13 global factories, together producing the 100,000 BLISKs per working year (250 days per year). It is not unreasonable to assume that adding military and small BLISK production could double that amount8Going forward, the number of manufactured BLISKs will continue to grow. The engine market roughly doubles every 20 years, and the compressor parts of these engines all have BLISK design9Calculations and assumptions are described in more detail in Ericssons sustainability appendix (document number 1/GFTB-18:001245 Uen)10naturvardsverket.se/Sa-mar-miljon/Statistik-A-O/Klimat-vaxthusgasutslapp-fran-svensk-konsumtion-per-person6 Ericsson | 5G business valueAn operator opportunity there for the taking The industrial market offers a major growth opportunity for the telecommunications industry. Mobile operators can now create a new business model based on Service Level Agreements (SLAs) rather than subscriptions. However, to do so will require adapting their go-to-market and delivery strategies.It is important to understand that industrial sites constitute a new market, where new product packages are required and the customer values need to be understood; it is not merely an extension of the consumer service.To address this market and unlock its value, operators must look at three areas: 1. Solutions: Work together with major factory ecosystem suppliers to help Industry 4.0 take off by establishing one unified form of communication technology. Based around high-value use cases, this would make it easy for a customer to choose a private enterprise cellular connectivity solution. Being early in offering a unified solution could build momentum in an expanding market, and would also accelerate mobile communications progress into the selection of available options.2. Delivery: Build trust in operating core processes with high performance requirements, ensure processes are in place to deliver at that level and be resilient in restoring and proactively preventing disturbances. 3. Sales and marketing: Build awareness and demonstrate a credible understanding of customer needs through, for example, demonstrating capability to actively engage with partners and drive the market.In order to address the large business opportunity operators need to: Package an easy-to-buy, off-the-shelf commercial solution Build a delivery organization that responds to very strict SLAs Gain market awareness of the deployment challenges and ecosystem properties affecting customers7 Ericsson | 5G business valueThe content of this document is subject to revision without notice due to continued progress in methodology, design and manufacturing. Ericsson shall have no liability for any error or damage of any kind resulting from the use of this documentEricssonSE-164 80 Stockholm, Sweden Telephone +46 10 719 0000 ericssonGFTB-18:001245 Uen Ericsson AB 2018Ericsson enables communications service providers to capture the full value of connectivity. The companys portfolio spans Networks, Digital Services, Managed Services, and Emerging Business and is designed to help our customers go digital, increase efficiency and find new revenue streams. Ericssons investments in innovation have delivered the benefits of telephony and mobile broadband to billions of people around the world. The Ericsson stock is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and on Nasdaq New York. ericsson
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