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Designing Manufacturings Digital FutureBy Robert H. Brown and Prasad SatyavoluThe Center for the Future of WorkMANUFACTURING2 THE WORK AHEAD|DESIGNING MANUFACTURINGS DIGITAL FUTUREThe Work Ahead is a research series providing insight and guidance on how businesses and jobs will evolve in the digital economy. Whether youre a producer of consumer durables or industrial goods, the future of manufacturing isnt just about using new technologies to design and make physical products. Its about leveraging the power of digital to create more connected and personalized experiences for customers. Our latest study shows the way forward to the future of work for manufacturers. In this installment, we look at the new digital economics of manufacturing, as well as the ways in which new digital skills and technologies from analytics and automation through artificial intelligence (AI) will enable manufacturers to innovate new work (and work processes).3THE WORK AHEAD IN MANUFACTURINGTraditional manufacturing has always focused on getting products and parts crafted, fabricated, stored, moved and distributed to the right place at the right time. And because no manufacturer is an island, these steps have had to be intensively coordinated among partners suppliers, production shops, shippers, distributors, retailers and, yes, customers. Yet everywhere you turn, there are seemingly new competitive moves everything from Amazons private-label diapers dropped digitally at your door,1to John Deeres “Farm Forward” crop management ecosystem, 2or GEs digital jet engines that are instrumented down to the individual fan blade3 that make past approaches suddenly seem old, creaky and unresponsive. Even the simple act of making pizza can now involve prep and delivery with high-tech equipment: Zume Pizza in Palo Alto, Calif., for example, is using a robot to expedite the experience of deliciousness. This is not science fiction its happening, now.4Far more serious and sophisticated global digital changes in manufacturing are also occurring, as customers demand more than “better stuff” and gimmicks and seek experiences that inform, inspire and bring meaning to their lives. Just as Detroits assembly lines changed the very nature of work in auto manufacturing, new digital technologies herald massive change in the work ahead for the entire manufacturing sector. One driver of change is 3-D printing and its ability to allow some manufacturers to create new jobs onshore, or bring back old ones from abroad. This technology is also spurring the emergent trend of so-called “maker-artisans” in diverse locales worldwide, presaging a near-term future of “what you want, when you want it” manufacturing. Imagine goods produced by local, bulk 3-D printing capabilities and a collective of skilled “finishers” that apply a final-polish, small-batch or artisanal stamp to the goods, to add a unique, personal touch. 4 THE WORK AHEAD|DESIGNING MANUFACTURINGS DIGITAL FUTUREThe combination of localized production and customer-centered design will also likely alter the historic arms-length relationships between producers and distributors/dealers. If you can “make” something at the same site from which it is sold, why would you need a downstream intermediary? Legacy industrial models will need to be strategically re-thought or blended with new, digitally-driven approaches. For example, imagine a post-petroleum world, in which gas stations merge with quick-printing chains like Kinkos to form local manufacturing sites, producing 3-D printing designs at scale and recycling waste materials back out through the supply chain.5Already, embedded sensors and the Internet of Things (IoT) are breaking down barriers between products, customers, retailers, wholesale partners and suppliers. In response, manufacturers have a massive opportunity to make products that push the envelope of game-changing innovation or new levels of efficiency. With digital innovation, the days of top-down, “youll-get-what-we-give-you” mass production are giving way to co-creation processes that deploy crowdsourcing techniques to improve products via open collaboration platforms that encourage innovation and yield highly personalized products built for markets of one.The work ahead for all participants in the physical and digital manufacturing realms will be to strengthen, cultivate and coordinate the ecosystem of partners in an interconnected world of intelligent embedded systems that produce meaningful products, services and experiences for customers. Legacy industrial models will need to be strategically re-thought or blended with new, digitally-driven approaches. Key Insights To understand what the future holds for manufacturing, Cognizants Center for the Future of Work surveyed 2,000 executives globally, including 500 senior executives from the consumer and industrial products spaces (see Methodology, page 20). From their input, we learned: Manufacturers havent saved money using digital, but their investments are reaping new revenues. So far, respondents think digital initiatives have increased manufacturing costs by 1% during the last year, but theyve also improved revenues by 5.4%. Digital will become a money-making assembly line over the next few years. By 2018, respondents expect to boost revenues by 9.0%. Extrapolated to the entire global manufacturing industry, digital will drive almost 25% additional growth. To reap the rewards, tune in to the digital channel. Today, only 30% of respondents believe more than 20% of their revenues currently originate from digital channels. By 2020, however, that percentage leaps to 78%. Analytics and AI are transforming global “making” processes. Roughly 70% of respondents think digital change is boosting the need for innovation skills today and will continue to do so through 2018. Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents who believe AI will have a significant impact on manufacturing by 2025 vs. today jumps nearly 400%. Getting ahead of these systems of intelligence is essential and will likely trigger a surge in analytics skills needed by 2020.5 Forget “oil spills” manufacturers are worried about “data spills.” Universal concern about overshared personal data abounds among manufacturers, with 90% of respondents citing this as a moderate or significant concern. Digital change makes manufacturing more meaningful in the work ahead. Consumer demand is evolving fast from a desire for “stuff” to more meaningful experiences, and manufacturers will need to adapt their skills accordingly. Their employees increasingly want to work on things that will improve other peoples lives. As such, over 50% of respondents believe that digital technology will allow them to contribute more meaningfully.Digital forces including 3-D printing, IoT/sensors, drone delivery and manufacturing robots are converging to transform manufacturing and the entire value chain, and its increasingly being done by smart machines and code to augment human workers and customers.Whether your company is a manufacturer of consumer or industrial products, the time to act is now. Leaders need to make critical choices regarding initiatives that will quickly allow the benefits of digital to help their businesses succeed. The scale of the opportunity is massive and eminently achievable.6 | DESIGNING MANUFACTURINGS DIGITAL FUTURETHE WORK AHEADMAKING MONEY MEANS SPENDING MONEY But Gains Achieved Digitally Double by 2018 After years of developing cost-saving programs to drive lean manufacturing, companies now want to propel outsized results on the top line through digital injection. Digital initiatives have increased manufacturing costs by 1% but have simultaneously improved revenues by 5.4% (see Figure 1, next page). By 2018, cost reductions remain marginal while costs do decrease, its only by a mere 0.7% (with the exception of retail, this is the least impact measured in any industry we studied). The strategy to “give” on costs to “get” outsized revenues will continue through 2018. As a result, many manufacturers will be doubling-down on digital, knowing they need to spend money to make money, causing revenues to soar 9.0% by 2018.Thats nearly a 10% top- and bottom-line improvement. If we extrapolate beyond our respondents to the entire global manufacturing industry, we estimate that digital will drive 24.7% additional growth in the $13 trillion manufacturing sector worldwide between now and 2018.6 Thats a massive amount of money.Getting down into the weeds of these new, complex technologies might seem like the hard part, but in fact the really hard part is vision, imagining the future and thinking big in other words, avoiding incrementalism. This requires a major mindset shift, and then animating and bringing the technology vision to life. 7Manufacturers have moved beyond “knowing something needs to happen” to “making something happen;” were already seeing examples of tailored and customized versions of everything from stylish wardrobes, self-driving cars and shipping options to house-paint colors. By linking the purchase of discrete goods to continuous lifestyle choices, products can become services. For example, Asian Paints (the largest paint company in India) has used the combination of industrialized sensors, automation and social media analytics to catalyze both internal operations and customer-driven product development and marketing outreach.7By developing smarter “products-as-a-service” and more agile demand-driven supply chains, manufacturers like Asian Paints hope to generate growth rates far and above what they would have enjoyed in the “pre-digital” era. -0.7%7.5%5.4%1.0%0.8%9.0%Revenue and cost impact over from 2015 to 2018 Revenue2015 2015 Potential* 2018Cost0%2%4%6%8%10%-2%Digitals Cost & Revenue Impact in Manufacturing: Present vs. 2018Senior executives think digital increased costs by 1% in 2015, but simultaneously improved revenues by 5.4%. By 2018, respondents expect digital to boost revenues by 9.0%.Source: Cognizant Center for the Future of WorkFigure 1Response base: 500 senior manufacturing executives* 2015 Potential Impact represents the outcome respondents think they could gain were they to fully implement all digital best practices available to them.8 | DESIGNING MANUFACTURINGS DIGITAL FUTURETHE WORK AHEADMAKERS FIND NEW DIGITAL ROUTES TO MARKETIts clear that manufacturers expect increased revenue growth from digital channels between now and 2018. While only one-third of our respondents believe that 20%-plus of their revenues currently originate from digital channels (see Figure 2, next page), that percentage more than doubles to 78% by 2020. The implications of this shift are huge. With the growing recognition that the days of making mass-produced things and selling them at a profit are becoming obsolete, manufacturers realize they need to adopt a broader transformation strategy that will affect their customers, suppliers, products, markets and employees. A look at other industries can also be instructive. For example, imagine if Uber were a manufacturer: It might consider variables such as access to on-demand machine time, long-term or micro- leasing of equipment and driving higher machine utilization rates. As other industries continue to morph, age-old notions of whats “core” vs. “non-core” in manufacturing need to be revisited (and revisited again and again several times over the next decade as digital disruptions continue). Whether its Levis shifting from being “just a jeans company” to a branding juggernaut,8Ford Motor Co. rethinking the future of cars as “mobile communications platforms,9” or GEs existential relaunch as a “digital industrial company,” the signs of manufacturers metamorphoses are everywhere, and well see even more signals in the coming years. 910%20%30%40%50%60%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 70%60% 90%80%20152020The Huge Shift to Digital as a Revenue Channel in ManufacturingOnly about 30% of manufacturers think more than 20% of their revenues were obtained through digital channels in 2015. By 2020, 78% think it will be 20% or more.Source: Cognizant Center for the Future of WorkFigure 2What percentage of your companys revenue now comes through digital channels, and what percentage do you expect to come from digital channels in 2020?Response base: 500 senior manufacturing executives% of manufacturing respondents% of company revenue from digital channels10 | DESIGNING MANUFACTURINGS DIGITAL FUTURETHE WORK AHEADMAKING CHANGES TO WORK AND SKILLSWhen manufacturing executives look at the top-five impacts of digital that are set to transform work between now and 2020 (see Figure 3, next page), they agree that as more tasks are automated, work will become more strategic. That is, there will be less emphasis on discrete manufacturing equipment installation, and more focus on whether the gear will or wont enhance new digital business approaches. At the same time, our data also shows that digital will cause work to require greater technical expertise. Manufacturers need increasingly sophisticated ways of seeing the bigger picture of their business, in order to adapt and respond to demand volatility. Simultaneously, these changes will play out against a backdrop of skills shortages in the U.S. manufacturing industry of at least two million by 2025.10Respondents also believe that digital will help them work faster, without having to necessarily work longer hours, or harder. Given the incipient skills shortages, further automation will be a critical remedy. Manufacturers quickly need to launch active programs around systems of intelligence that lead to more human-robotic collaboration. 11Manufacturers quickly need to launch active programs around systems of intelligence that lead to more human-robotic collaboration. Fabricating the Future: Analytics Skills to Unlock Innovation New automated systems, in concert with manned systems, create new outcomes by better integrating all participants suppliers, partners, materials scientists, machinists and heads of safety through digital approaches. Robots and other autonomic systems are working alongside humans on modern manufacturing floors rather than being contained in “just designed for robots” floors. A great example is the Airbus factory, in which robots are strapped to the side of fuselages, riveting thousands of holes, with operators “piloting” the robots.11To personalize this even further, consider the views of Greg Morris, Additive Technologies Leader at GE Aviation, regarding 3-D printing: “Youre going to have higher-skilled positions, both on the technician level, and the engineering and design level . Youll get complex parts that a machinist will have to work with vs. starting with a block of material. So you
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