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CHINESE WOMEN IN 2030 CONNECTING WITH FUTURE CONSUMERSINTRODUCTION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY HOW IS THEIR WORLD CHANGING 02 06 10 SUMMARY 72 IDENTITY IN 2030 1. SELF IDENTITY 2. FRIENDSHIP 3. LOVE 4. FAMILY 5. BEAUTY 27 28 32 36 40 44 WORK IN 2030 1. WORK SUCCESS 2. CAREER PATHS PLAY IN 2030 1. STATUS 2. LEISURE TIME 3. CONSUMPTION CONTENTS 49 50 54 59 60 64 68INTRODUCTION As China grows into the worlds Number 1 economy, Chinas women are on a surge. Millennial girls (born in the 80s and 90s) grew up during the boom years of double-digit growth in China as only children doted on by parents and grandparents. They laid the ground for a new model of femininity with their independent, confident-striving and outspoken style. Girls are outperforming boys in school, accounting for more than half of all undergraduates in China in 2015. This number might be even higher were it not for the affirmative practices implemented by many universities to let more boys in *1 . They are major players in the economy: In 2017, 61.5% of women participated in Chinas labor force, contributing some 41% to Chinas GDP , a higher percentage than in most other regions, including North America *2 . Government data shows that women set up 55% of new internet companies in China and more than a quarter of all entrepreneurs are women *3 . On the consumption side, they buy millions of articles on Taobao, Chinas leading e-commerce platform, and turned Alibabas Singles Day into the worlds most valuable day for retailers. Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, speaking at the 2017 Global Conference on Women and Entrepreneurship, called women the “secret sauce“ of Alibabas success, adding that he wished to become a woman in his next life *4 . Over the last 30 years, a soaring economy and changes to the laws regarding education and employment have meant big changes to womens rights and status in China. But where are Chinese women going next? Given their importance in the economy as both leaders and consumers, brands need to be able to anticipate the trends that will influence women. This study looks at where Chinas girls and young women today will be in 2030. Women are evolving as part of Chinas fast changing society, and brands need to better understand what motivates and drives them, in order to engage with them in a positive way. - 03 - - 02 -CHINESE WOMEN IN 2030 Specifically, this study looks at two female cohorts: I 18-28 years old today II 6-17 years old today These are the Chinese women who are 18-40 years old in 2030 From Tier1-3 cities From middle to high income levels (8,000RMB Monthly Household Income) SETTING THE CONTEXTChinas population is expected to reach its peak in 2029, growing from the current 1.418 billion to 1.44 billion and then declining from 2030 onward. The male / female imbalance that has sprung from the one-child policy, resulting in some 30 million more men today, is expected to balance out by that point. Despite the relaxation of the one-child policy in 2016, its shadow extends into the future: over the next 10 years, the number of Chinese women aged 23- 30 will decrease by 40%, a huge drop in this child bearing age group *5 . At current fertility rates (circa 1.5%) this means about 8 million births per year, although the government actively promotes births and might start to incentivise births via tax and education reforms. Fewer births and longer life spans mean a greying population; by 2027, an estimated 100 million people will have joined the ranks of those over the age of 60, representing 22% of the population. This means an increased burden on working adults but also new consumption opportunities. METHODOLOGYThis paper was developed based on the research conducted between September 2018 and March 2019, which included Kantar Consultings proprietary consumer research Global MONITOR (A quantitative study conducted in over 20 countries, tracking changing consumers attitudes, values and behaviours on an annual basis), as well as existing trends, futures and generational studies and research reports. Additional insight was provided by secondary research, which included the review of existing intelligence and published international and Chinese sources. 10 expert interviews were also conducted to add depth and nuance to the social trends explored, with an eye to identify early signals of change that point towards likely shifts in womens values, attitudes and behaviors. - 04 - - 05 -EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CHINESE WOMEN IN 2030 Delivering transformative solutions through media, content and technology for brands globally, Wavemaker was founded with the mission to “Make the Future“. Of course making the future in the short-term in China requires huge agility to keep on top of the very fast-changing consumer and marketing opportunities, and agility is a core value of Wavemaker. Against this dynamic, we chose to take a Year 2030 perspective in this whitepaper in the appreciation that brands that will stand the test of time need to build their capabilities to connect with Chinese consumers in the longer-term. We also chose to focus on Chinas women - they are on a surge as major players and key drivers of consumption in what is soon to be the worlds largest economy. With appreciation that consumption starts at an ever younger age, we have identified how current schoolgirls 6-17 years old and current GenZ 18-28 years old, as future recruitment targets and retention targets respectively, will shift as consumers from now to 2030. It is worth noting at this point that whilst we can already observe early signals of the expected shifts amongst pockets of consumers in higher tier cities, our lens for viewing this future is based on a holistic viewpoint of mainstream affluent women across China. To arrive at this vision of the future, we have identified 12 key drivers of change in China between now and 2030, covering economic, environmental, political, social and technogical forces impacting on Chinese womens values, attitudes and behaviors in future across ten dimensions under the themes of identity, work and play. - 07 - - 06 -Chinese women are moving away from juggling conflicting roles according to societal expectations and are expected by 2030 to show a more consistent self-identity that capitalises on their individualism and purpose. With the rise of individualism and independence, Chinese women are also pursuing more meaning and purpose in their relationships. By 2030, women will be able to curate longer-term and more global friendships according to common ideals, driven by the continued advance of big data, AI and virtual reality. Love, too, is moving towards a desire for true love, compared to what is currently in the mainstream more a focus on marriage based on good material foundations. At the same time, technology is expected optimize more shorter-term on-demand needs, whether related to friendships, dating or indeed sex. Family, Chinese societys backbone for millennia, is undergoing seismic shifts and we expect the notion of the traditional family structure will not exist in the future. Further assisted with AI and the sharing economy to alleviate household chores and care, the current burdens placed upon the shoulders of the wife/mother in the family will be eliminated and replaced with family life focused on enjoyment in 2030. Accordingly, mothers will become more of a friend than authoritative figure to their child as mother-child relationships will level. Externally, individuality is informing attitudes to beauty. By 2030, when appearances are easily modified thanks to technology and the digital- physical boundary is blurred, beauty is expected to be tailored to suit ones personality and diverse, limited only by ones creativity. IDENTITY IN 2030 A new sense of purpose will guide how women spend their time and money. Status will move away from current superficial signifiers like wealth and social-media popularity to status in 2030 being defined by sophisticated intangibles like education, wellbeing and connoisseurship, as well as ones positive impact on society. Leisure activities that combine individual passions and social causes will also be increasingly common. Facilitated by the growth of the sharing economy and algorithms, women will be more selective when choosing items they want to own. By 2030, whilst low-involvement categories will receive even less attention as predictive shopping services become the norm, high-involvement categories will become even higher involvement, focused on hyper-personalisation and the meaning and individuality products bring to the consumer. PLAY IN 2030 To win in the future, brands need to acknowledge these above shifts and better connect with women by accompanying them on this journey, and we hope our brand implications and “what if“ ideas for each theme act as inspiration for your own thinking for this endeavor. Indeed as Wavemaker ourselves, we continue to push our own capabilities, expertise and people to continue to partner with the best brands to “Make the Future“. With their independence on the rise, Chinese women are already challenging the barriers of equal opportunities to their male counterparts in the workplace today. By 2030, women will achieve financial independence with womens leadership in business considered normal. In fact women are expected to progress ahead of men in the work place, with digital disruption and automation favoring new skill sets that are irreplaceable by automation e.g. empathy or creativity where women hold an advantage. WORK IN 2030 CHINESE WOMEN IN 2030 - 08 - - 09 -HOW IS THEIR WORLD CHANGING DRIVERS OF CHANGE We have identified 12 key drivers of change that will have great impact on the lives of women in 2030, shaping their future destinies in how they work, live and play: - 10 -POWERHOUSE CHINA China is moving towards equaling the US in both its economic power and military reach. By 2030 it will be the leading world power. It will also play a more visible role on the global stage and will continue to be a strong promoter of cross-border trade as it further integrates into the global economy. China will be home to the worlds largest middle class and will reshape global consumption. Over the next decade, consumption will grow by an average 6% annually to reach RMB 56 trillion ($8.2 trillion) *1and this growth will be driven largely by women hence the role of women consumers will be even greater than it is today. Chinese brands will continue to gain domestic recognition as well as grow their global influence. By 2030, Made-in-China will be on-par with, or even superior to international brands. Consumers will evolve from their relatively price-sensitive mindset to a more premium-seeking attitude, but distinctions between Chinese and Western lifestyles will remain. The choices women will make as consumers will be of major impact on their families. 2030: Long-term global GDP rankings International vs Chinese brands scores on the BrandZ Brand Power metric NO. 1 ECONOMY IN 2030 AND KEY CONNECTOR FOR GLOBAL TRADE CHINESE BRANDS INCREASINGLY PREFERRED IN AND OUT OF CHINA International brands 115 2010 2016 Chinese brand International brands 100 100 Chinese brand 89 2018 2030 20.4 US China Japan Germany UK France India China US India Japan Germany UK France 14.1 5.2 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 26.0 25.2 5.9 5.6 4.9 3.5 3.4 GDP (USD trn) Source: *1 Future of consumption in fast-growth consumer markets: China, World Economic Forum, 2018 01 INCREASING GLOBAL EXPOSURE With both international travel *2and education on the rise (608,400 overseas students in 2017 *3 ), young Chinese are increasingly exposed to the world. This is accompanied by overseas work experiences (Chinese green card holders in the US have doubled over the last decade *4 ), whereby many of those studying and working abroad eventually return to China, where opportunities abound. This increasing exposure to global culture may challenge existing Chinese gender norms and stereotypes, and in the near future, lead to a paradigm shift in the way Chinese culture views women. 608K 81,772 84% Chinese students studied abroad in 2017 vs 400K in 2012 Chinese green card holders in the U.S. in 2016 vs 40,568 in 2003 studying abroad returned to China in 2017 vs 10% in 2001 GROWING CHINESE STUDY, WORK ABROAD AND RETURN INCREASING INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL WITH HIGH PREVALENCE OF WOMEN 400 mil 56% Overseas trips by Chinese travellers by 2030 vs 156 mil in 2018 of Chinese travelled overseas female in 2016 even though females only make up 48% of the population increasing 156% Source: *2 China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, 2018 & Marketing to China, 2018 *3 2017 sees increase in number of Chinese students studying abroad and returning after overseas studies, Ministry of Education of the Peoples Republic of China, 2018 *4 Number of persons obtaining legal permanent resident status in the U.S. in 2016, by country of birth, Statista, 2018 CHINESE WOMEN IN 2030 02 - 12 - - 13 -GROWTH OF URBAN LIVING In 2030, close to 70% of Chinas population will reside in urban areas, with more urbanization occurring in inland provinces and in tier 2 and 3 cities instead of in saturated coastal megacities *5 . Advances in technology will enable and support this shift, ultimately resulting in better consumption and lifestyles. As early as 2020, 50% of new residential buildings will comply with green building standards *6 . Living arrangements are set to evolve too, with solo or communal living on the rise amongst younger generations *7 , potentially transforming family structures. This will shift the traditional view of women as mothers. GROWTH OF URBAN POPULATION HIGHLY CENTRALIZED RISING OF SOLO LIVING 68% 80% will be urban in 2030 vs 58% in 2017 GDP will be generated in 19 supercity clusters in 2030 Estimated % of one-person households among total households in urban areas in China 16% 21% 23% 23% 25% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: *5 China in 2030: The Future Demographic, Euromonitor International, 2018 *6 A Review of Green Building Development in China from the Perspective of Energy Saving, Zhang et al., Energies, 2018 *7 Living Alone in China: Projection of One-person Household, 2010 to 2050, W. Jean Yeung et al., 2016 03 AGEING POPULATION China will move from a relatively younger to a relatively older and ageing population, with the median age rising from 37 in 2015 *8to 42 by 2030 *9 , life expectancy growing by 2 years *10and a persistently low fertility rate at 1.66 *11 . Whilst the sheer number of elderly people (324 million) will pose challenges to economic growth, new needs of this demographic from healthcare to assisted living will also create economic opportu
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