资源描述
Please refer to page 32 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website macquarie/research/disclosures. GLOBAL Battle Royale eSports is gradually shaping up driven by endemic support. Above, Jiang Zhang, aka “Jiangwich”, and colleague Ed Alter won one of their many chicken dinners in PlayerUnknowns Battlegrounds. Thematic Reports: LINK1, LINK2, LINK3 Outlook: eSports Eight Themes for Eighteen Analyst(s) Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.Jiang Zhang, CFA+1 416 848 3549 jiang.zhangmacquarieGreg MacDonald, CFA+1 416 628 3934 greg.macdonaldmacquarieMacquarie Capital (USA) Inc.Benjamin Schachter+1 212 231 0644 ben.schachtermacquarieTim Nollen+1 212 231 0635 tim.nollenmacquarieEd Alter+1 212 231 1272 ed.altermacquarieChad Beynon+1 212 231 2634 chad.beynonmacquarieSrini Pajjuri+1 415 762 5018 srini.pajjurimacquarieAmy Yong+1 212 231 2624 amy.yongmacquarieMacquarie Capital Securities (Japan) LimitedDavid Gibson, CFA+81 3 3512 7880 david.gibsonmacquarieDamian Thong, CFA+81 3 3512 7877 damian.thongmacquarieMacquarie Capital LimitedWendy Huang, CFA+852 3922 3378 wendy.huangmacquarieAllen Chang+852 3922 1136 allen.changmacquarieMarcus Yang+86 21 24129087 marcus.yangmacquarieMacquarie Securities Korea LimitedSoyun Shin+82 2 3705 8659 soyun.shinmacquarieMacquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities BranchJeffrey Ohlweiler+886 2 2734 7512 jeffrey.ohlweilermacquarieKaylin Tsai+886 2 2734 7523 kaylin.tsaimacquarie13 February 2018 eSports The Break-out Year eSports quickly shifted into high gear with the Overwatch League (OWL) making an impressive debut. We think this is a good indicator of OWLs potential and a proof of concept on the professional eSports franchising model that is also being pursued by Riot Games and others. Key insights worth highlighting: 2018 will be an important year for eSports. We think both the OWL and NA LCS could set the trajectory on key factors such as sponsorship, media rights, and franchising. Notably, Toyota became the latest sponsor of the OWL, and State Farm will sponsor the NA LCS. We can expect more mainstream sponsors to participate as the industry evolves and viewership continues to grow. On media rights, although the reported $90m that Amazon paid for the OWL digital rights may pale in comparison to the traditional sports rights, we think this is a good start and has further upside as OWL scales. Finally, expect more games (eg, NBA2K, Battlefield, Rainbow Six, CS:GO, PUBG, Splatoon) creating their own pro leagues. Stock calls: ATVI, EA, TTWO, AMZN, DIS, FB, GOOGL, Tencent, NetEase, NCsoft. Japan to become a force in the global eSports landscape. Bipartisanship is difficult to come by in any political arena but not when it comes to driving eSports in Japan. The nations lawmakers have formed a coalition to support eSports and are looking to revise the arcane law that has hindered the countrys eSports scene as it outlawed paid video game tournaments in an effort to prevent illegal gambling. The ultimate goal is for Japan to field an Olympic-ready eSports team. Licenses that exempt professional gamers from gambling laws (similar to those issued to professional athletes) have been issued, and the first tournament using the new licenses was held on Feb. 9-11, with more to come. International eSports events leading up to the 2020 Summer Games are also being considered by Japans Olympic Committee and Tokyo city government. Stock calls: Capcom, Nintendo Traditional sports moves deeper into eSports. Major League Soccer announced its own eSports competition, eMLS, which allows each of the 19 participating clubs to draft their own FIFA player and compete in the upcoming season on April 5. Additionally, the NFL and the NHL have also started to make entry into eSports. We expect the sports leagues to initially work within their own genre (ie. soccer, football, hockey), though they could gradually expand into the mainstream eSports titles (ie. LOL, OW) given their higher viewership. Stock calls: EA, TTWO The changing face of collegiate sports? NCAAs Division II Peach Belt Conference of 12 member schools is teaming with Riot Games to compete in the College League of Legends 2018 season. While it is unclear how collegiate eSports will evolve, we believe that engagement at the grassroots level is critical to sustainability of the theme, and the gradual NCAA participation could potentially mark a shift in its regulations to accommodate new sports events. Battle Royale eSports community takes shape. PlayerUnknowns Battlegrounds (PUBG) recently surpassed 30m players, while peer Fortnite has amassed 40m. The BR games are not eSports-ready yet, but we think the support they receive from the endemic eSports teams around the world as well as from streamers and event organizers are accretive to creating a sustained community. Expect improvements in broadcasting, anti-cheat and dynamic gameplay to bring this genre to the next level. Other stock calls on eSports: AMD, Caesars, NVIDIA, MGM, MSG, Sony. Macquarie Research eSports 13 February 2018 2 Fig 1 eSports Cheat Sheet Source: Activate, Superdata, eSports Earnings, ESPN, H1 Gambling Capital, Newzoo, Macquarie Research, February 2018 *Rev est. L e a g u e o f L e g e n d s C h a m p i o n s h i p - L A S t a p l e C e n t e r ( 2 0 1 3 )* R e v e n u e e s t i m a t e i n c l u d e s p o n s o r s h i p , a d v e r t i s i n g , p r i z e p o o l s , b e t t i n g , t i c k e t i n g , m e r c h a n d i s e a n d m e d i a r i g h t s .W h a t i s e Sp o r ts ?C o m p e t i t i v e t o u r n a m e n t s o f v i d e o g a m e s, e sp e ci a l l y a m o n g p r o f e ssi o n a l g a m e r s. - D i ct i o n a r y . co mPr o fe s s i o n a l s p o r ts o r g a n i z a ti o n s th a t i n v e s te d i n e Sp o r tse Sp o r ts a n d v i r tu a l r e a l i ty th e m e s m u tu a l l y r e i n fo r c i n g8924 , 9 6 001 , 0 0 02 , 0 0 03 , 0 0 04 , 0 0 05 , 0 0 06 , 0 0 02 0 1 6 2 0 2 0 E( $ m n )e Sp o r t s m a r k e t s iz e ( $ m n ) *+ 5 4 % C A G R36549501002003004005006002 0 1 6 2 0 2 0 E( m n )e Sp o r t s g lo b a l v ie w e r s ( m n )+ 8 % C A G R11441362820 201560306090120SuperBowlNCAABasketball(Final4)LeagueofLegendChampionshipRose BowlDOTA2ChampionshipNBAFinals(Game 5)MLBWorldSeriesNHLStanleyCup( m n)V i e w e rs h i p o f m a j o r e Sp o rt s e v e n t s h a s s u rp a s s e d t h a t o f m a j o r league s p o rt s s u c h a s M L B, t h e N BA a n d t h e N H L .B en efi ci ar i es o f th e eSp o r ts th em eP u b l i s h e r s : A c t i v i s i o n , E A G a m e s , T a k e - T w o , N i n t e n d o , C a p c o m , T e n c e n t , N e t E a s e , N C s o f t , U B I s o f t ( N R ) , N e t m a r b l e ( N R )M e d i a a n d E n t e r t a i n m e n t : F a c e b o o k , G o o g l e , A m a z o n , D i s n e y , M G M , C a e s a r s , S e a L t d , M T G ( N R ) , C i n e p l e x ( N R )H a r d w a r e & T e c h n o l o g y : A M D , N V I D I A , S o n y , L o g i t e c h ( N R ) , R a z e r ( N R )Po p u l a r e Sp o r ts r a n k i n g b y p r i z e p a y o u ts a n d th e i r r e s p e c ti v e d e v e l o p e r sO t h e r p o p u l a r e S p o r t s i n c l u d e . . . .e Sp o r ts b e tti n g p l a tfo r m sPo p u l a r a n d e m e r g i n g e Sp o r ts m e d i a p l a tfo r m se Sp o r ts l e a g u e s a n d te a m s v s . p r o fe s s i o n a l s p o r tPr o fe s s i o n a l e Sp o r ts L e a g u e sMacquarie Research eSports 13 February 2018 3 Kicking Into High Gear eSports was off to a good start in 2018, with the commencement of the Overwatch League (OWL) drawing an impressive 420k peak concurrent viewers on its opening day and 10m viewers total in the first week. We think this is a good indicator of OWLs potential in becoming a spectator eSport and, more importantly, a proof of concept on the professional eSports franchising model that is also being pursued by Riot Games, TTWO, as well as other publishers and event organizers. Overall, we think that 2018 will be an important year for the eSports industry, as the OWL, NBA2K, and the NA LCS could set the trajectories on key factors such as sponsorship, media rights, and franchising that are critical to the future economics of the industry. Non-endemic sponsorship to accelerate Historically, much of eSports sponsorship come from endemic eSports and tech brands such as Logitech, Razr, Intel, ASUS, etc, but we have observed increasing participation from non-endemic sponsors such as Coca Cola, Harveys, Nissan, Axe and Geico. Since the start of 2016, more than 600 eSports sponsorship deals have been signed. Although the IT sector accounts for 60% of the sponsorships, auto, retail, online services and beverages have expanded their presence over the years. Notably, non-endemic brands such as Toyota, T-Mobile and Sour Patch Kids have become the latest long-term sponsor of the OWL after the league secured HP and Intel as key partners. Fig 2 eSports sponsorship by sector Source: Nielsen, Macquarie Research, February 2018 More recently, KSV eSports, which owns the Seoul Dynasty Overwatch team, recently announced that Razer will sponsor its eSports teams by becoming the exclusive gaming peripheral provider for the club. In addition, KSV also received sponsorship from Mirae Asset, in which Mirae will offer athletes financial management services as part of KSVs player benefit package that also includes English tutoring, media training, nutrition services and physical training. The sponsorship momentum that the OWL is experience is also having an impact on the upcoming NA LCS season. We note that insurance giant State Farm, which is already a sponsor for the NBA and the NFL, recently became a key sponsor for the upcoming NA LCS season, as well as the 2018 League of Legends World championship. As part of the sponsorship, State Farm will have its NA LCS State Farm Analyst desk that offer expert analysis and play breakdowns. Worth noting that the pace of mainstream sponsorship is not only accelerating at the league level but also at the team level, which we believe is critical to the teams long-term development in terms of player acquisition and investments in training and equipment. IT /Co mp u te r59%R e tai l16%O n l i n e s e rvi c e s10%N o n - al co h o l i c d ri n ks8%O n l i n e me d i a7%Macquarie Research eSports 13 February 2018 4 Just recently, Team SoloMid, a leading organization based in the US, signed the beverage giant Dr. Pepper to be one of its key sponsors ahead of the NA LCS season. Early in January, snack maker Snickers announced that it will sponsor FlyQuest, another NA LCS squad that is owned by Fortress Investment Group co-founder and Milwaukee Bucks co-owner Wes Edens. Elsewhere, AirAsia announced a one-year sponsorship and exclusive airline partnership with Mineski Pro Team, one of the top Dota2 teams in ASEAN and the world (ranks 5th in the Pro Circuit). As eSports gains further mainstream traction, we expect to see an influx of brands that have historically sponsored traditional sports to gradually allocate marketing budgets to eSports in order to capture the younger demographic and their ability to spend. Notably, 61% of eSports fans live in households with more than three people, per Nielsen estimates. This suggests that they could potentially be decision-makers in the household/family and this may have meaningful impact on a variety of household items, particularly food and beverage, restaurants, telecommunication and electronics brands. We can expect further crystallization of media rights for big eSports events, a key monetization catalyst for the publishers. Media reported that Amazon paid roughly $90m for the rights to the Overwatch League (LINK) and while that pales in comparison to the value of the traditional media rights, we consider this to be another step forward for the crystallization of the media rights for marquee eSports events and sets a good foundation for the potential monetization of media rights for the NA LCS events and others. Fig 3 Traditional sports media rights vs. eSports Date Sport League Rights owner Starting Season Ending Season Seasons Value/year (US$mn) Total Value (US$mn) Platform 12/14/2011 American football NFL CBS, Fox, NBC 2014-15 2022-23 9 $3,100 $27,900 TV 10/6/2014 Basketball NBA ESPN, TNT 2016-17 2024-25 9 $2,660 $23,940 TV + digital 9/8/2011 American football NFL ESPN 2014-15 2021-22 8 $1,900 $15,200 TV 10/2/2012 Baseball MLB Fox, TBS 2014-15 2020-21 8 $1,550 $12,400 TV 4/12/2016 College basketball NCAA Turner, CBS 2025-26 2032-33 8 $1,100 $8,800 TV 6/27/2007 National basketball NBA ESPN, ABC, Turner 2008-09 2015-16 8 $930 $7,440 TV 4/22/2010 College basketball NCAA Turner, CBS 2010-11 2024-25 14 $771 $10,800 TV 11/26/2013 Hockey NHL Rogers 2014-15 2025-26 12 $411 $4,930 TV + digital 11/18/2016 Soccer Premier League Suning Group (PPTV) 2019 2022 3 $217 $650 Digital 9/7/2015 Soccer Premier League LeTV (China) 2016 2019 3 $133 $400 Digital 8/4/2015 Hockey NHL NHL, MLBAM* 2015-16 2011-12 6 $100 $600 Digital 11/17/2016 eSports League of Legends Riot, MLBAM* 2018 2019 2 $90 $180 Digital 1/9/2018 eSports Overwatch League Amazon 2018 2019 2 $45 $90 Digital 2018 eSports NA LCS ? 2018 ? ? ? ? ? * MLBAM and NHL streaming deal has a total value of $1.2bn but NHL will receive $100mn/year for the rights fee over the six-year deal. * Deal was first reported on November 17 but no formal announcement was made. Streaming platforms were assured that they can still stream for the 2017 season. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2018 We also believe that the early success of the OWL and the ongoing success of the global LCS environment are likely to encourage more professional leagues to form through the franchising model. League of Legends and Overwatch are the only two professional leagues that are backed by reputable organizations and are designed to mirror that of professional sports. We expect professionalization and investor interest to shape up in these other mainstream titles as both the professional NA LCS and OWL scene gradually plays out. This will ultimately be accretive to the overall eSports industry as it further expands the addressable market and de-risks the leverage the market currently has on both League of Legends and Overwatch. Investors can expect NBA 2K (TTWO), Battlefield (EA), Rainbow Six (UBIsoft), CS:GO (Valve), PUBG (PUBG Corp) and even Splatoon (Nintendo) to gradually shift their operating model towards the more professional scene, bringing strategic investors, franchisees and long-term sponsors. Macquarie Research eSports 13 February 2018 5 Although we remain positive on the industry outlook, we also acknowledge
展开阅读全文