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BLUEPAPERMMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.ChinaThe Rise of Chinas Supercities: New Era of UrbanizationWe believe Urbanization 2.0 will fuel productivity growth, allowing China to attain high-income status. By 2030 we expect the average size of the countrys five supercities to reach 120mn, an 8.5x increase in commuter rail length, and a tripling of the IoT and data market to almost US$1trn.October 10, 2019 08:00 PM GMTBLUEPAPERMContributors MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Robin XingEconomist+852 2848-6511Robin.XingmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Gary YuEquity Analyst+852 2848-6918Gary.YumorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jenny Zheng, CFAEconomist+852 3963-4015Jenny.L.ZhengmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Shawn KimEquity Analyst+852 3963-1005Shawn.KimmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Laura WangEquity Strategist+852 2848-6853Laura.WangmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+Sharon ShihEquity Analyst+886 2 2730-2865Sharon.ShihmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+Charlie ChanEquity Analyst+886 2 2730-1725Charlie.ChanmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Tim HsiaoEquity Analyst+852 2848-1982Tim.HsiaomorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jack YeungEquity Analyst+852 2239-7843Jack.YeungmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Kevin Luo, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2239-1527Kevin.LuomorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jenny Jiang, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2848-7152Jenny.JiangmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Grace ChenEquity Analyst+852 2848-5835Grace.H.ChenmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Elly ChenEquity Analyst+852 3963-0122Elly.ChenmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Lillian LouEquity Analyst+852 2848-6502Lillian.LoumorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Simon H.Y. Lee, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2848-1985Simon.LeemorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Richard Xu, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2848-6729Richard.XumorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Rachel L ZhangEquity Analyst+852 2239-1520Rachel.ZhangmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Sheng ZhongEquity Analyst+852 2239-7821Sheng.ZhongmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Sean WuEquity Analyst+852 3963-0755Sean.WumorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Qianlei Fan, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2239-1875Qianlei.FanmorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jack LuEquity Analyst+852 2848-5044Jack.LumorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Praveen K ChoudharyEquity Analyst+852 2848-5068Praveen.ChoudharymorganstanleyMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Zhipeng CaiEconomist+852 2239-7820Zhipeng.CaimorganstanleyBLUEPAPERMMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH 3Contents 5 Preface 6 Key Charts at a Glance9 Executive Summary18 Chinas Path to Urbanization 2.027 Initiative #1: City Clusters34 Initiative #2: Smart Cities52 Initiative #3: Agricultural Modernization58 Investment Theme #1: From a Consumer to an Industrial Internet59 1a. Telecoms63 1b. Internet71 1c. Tech Hardware and Software78 Investment Theme #2: Digitalization of Old-Economy Industries79 2a. Autos83 2b. Logistics88 2c. Utilities and Power Equipment91 2d. Banks97 2e. Insurance102 2f. Agribusiness 106 Investment Theme #3: New Lifestyles in Smart Supercities107 3a. Transportation111 3b. China Property117 3c. Hong Kong Property Companies121 3d. Materials125 3e. Consumer IoT132 3f. Education139 3g. Healthcare141 3h. Macau Gaming144 3i. Tourism148 Summary of Stocks Exposed to Urbanization 2.0BLUEPAPERM4Other ContributorsEquity StrategyFran Chen Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Strategist Fran.Chenmorganstanley +852 2848-7135Telecoms and Communication Yang Liu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Yang.Liumorganstanley +852 2239-1911Camille Xu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Camille.Xumorganstanley +852 3963-0692Sara Wang Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Sara.Wangmorganstanley +852 2239-1230InternetEddy Wang, CFA Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Eddy.Wangmorganstanley +852 2239-7339Alex Poon Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Alex.Poonmorganstanley +852 3963-3838Steven Tsai Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Steven.Tsaimorganstanley +852 2848-7217Alex Ko Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Alex.Komorganstanley +852 2239-1225TechnologyYunchen Tsai Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Yunchen.Tsaimorganstanley +852 2848-5636Howard Kao Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Equity Analyst Howard.Kaomorganstanley +886 2 2730-2989Ray Wu, CFA Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Equity Analyst Ray.Wumorganstanley +886 2 2730-2871Daniel Yen, CFA Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Equity Analyst Daniel.Yenmorganstanley +886 2 2730-2863Lily Chou Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Research Associate Li-Ling.Lily.Choumorganstanley +886 2 2730-2869Daisy Dai, CFA Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Daisy.Daimorganstanley +852 2848-7310Jeff Hsu Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Research Associate Jeff.Hsumorganstanley +886 2 2730-2864Tony Shen Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Tony.Shenmorganstanley +852 2848-5657AutosShelley Wang, CFA Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Shelley.Wangmorganstanley +852 3963-0047Frank Wan Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Frank.Wanmorganstanley +852 2239-1229LogisticsJunYi Yu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst JunYi.Yumorganstanley +852 2239-7817Utilities and Power EquipmentEva Hou Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Eva.Houmorganstanley +852 2848 6964BanksAnil Agarwal Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Anil.Agarwalmorganstanley +852 2848-5842Katherine Liu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Katherine.XH.Liumorganstanley +852 2239-1924Lu Lu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Lu.LuMorganStanley +852 2239-1568John Cai Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst John.Caimorganstanley +852 2239-1885Joey Xu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Joey.Xumorganstanley +852 3963-0337InsuranceGreen Cai Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Green.Caimorganstanley +852 2848-5686Birlina Qi Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Xiaoyue.Qimorganstanley +852 3963-4087Capital Goods and ConstructionHangjie Chen Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Hangjie.Chenmorganstanley +852 2848-7168China PropertyChloe Liu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Chloe.Liu1morganstanley +852 2848-5497Cara Zhu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Cara.Zhumorganstanley +852 2848-7117Ziya Zhou Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Ziya.Zhoumorganstanley +852 3963-0322ConsumersHanli Fan, CFA Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Hanli.Fanmorganstanley +852 3963-1017EducationElsie Sheng Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Elsie.Shengmorganstanley +852 3963-0475HealthcareYolanda Hu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Yolanda.Humorganstanley +852 2848-5649Laurence Tam Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Laurence.Tammorganstanley +852 2239-1753Ethan Ding Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Ethan.Dingmorganstanley +852 3963-0546Alexis Yan Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Alexis.Yanmorganstanley +852 2239-7953MaterialsSean Xiang Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Sean.Xiangmorganstanley +852 2848-8154Hannah Yang Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Hannah.Yang1morganstanley +852 2239-7079HK Real Estate and Macau GamingHildy Ling Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst Hildy.Lingmorganstanley +852 2239-7834Dan Xu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Dan.Xd.Xumorganstanley +852 2239-1227Gareth Leung Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate Gareth.Leungmorganstanley +852 2848-7339BLUEPAPERMMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH 5Preface Can China maintain a relatively fast pace of growth amid the chal-lenges of slowing globalization and aging demographics? Since we last wrote in-depth on Chinas journey to a high-income economy in November 2017, globalization has been hampered by tariffs and other barriers. As the working-age population declines, demographic headwinds will also continue to exert a drag on economic growth. We believe the answer to these challenges is a new phase of urbanization with the potential to create productivity gains by facilitating the freer movement of enterprises and workers while generating synergies between diverse industries.The path to Urbanization 2.0In this report we look at what the next decade could hold for Chinas cities and make our best attempt to identify investment opportuni-ties. We forecast that the countrys urbanization rate will rise to 75% by 2030, driven by (1) the growth of city clusters , which will bring the benefits of urban agglomeration while alleviating big-city prob-lems, (2) smart cities that leverage next-generation technologies to reduce traffic, crime and pollution, and (3) agricultural modernization , which will boost labor productivity and enable more rural workers to migrate to cities.Aiming for faster, safer, greener, more livable citiesChina has experienced unprecedented urbanization and economic growth in just a few decades. In its next stage of development, how-ever, China is focusing on making cities faster, safer, greener, and more livable by embracing structural reforms (such as Hukou and land reforms) and a new era of digital technologies. By 2030, city residents should generally be able to reach their workplaces within 15 minutes. At home, current plans aim to have 5G-enabled smart appliances clean, cook, and order food when supplies run low, while virtual reality headsets will help students do homework and attend online tutoring classes with the countrys top teachers.Much of this is a reality today. It is already common to pay at grocery stores in Hangzhou or check in at the new Beijing airport using only facial recognition. By 2030, greater changes will be enabled by investments in digital infrastructure and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data. We expect high-speed commuter trains, smart traffic control systems, shared mobility, and automated vehicle technologies to cut travel times and make streets and roads safer than ever, while electric vehicles and green energy sources reduce pollution. This will enhance the population capacity of cities.What could this mean for the economy?We estimate that Urbanization 2.0 will attract an additional 220mn city dwellers by 2030 (vs. existing urban residents of 831mn). Half of them will settle in the top five superclusters, which we project will have populations of 120mn on average close to the size of Japans current population enabled by an 8.5x increase in commuter rail length. The number of megacities with populations larger than New York City (8mn) should rise from nine now to 23 by 2030. Next-gen technologies, enabled by our estimated US$800bn capex in digital infrastructure, should sustain total factor productivity growth at 1.6% annually through 2030. Offsetting industrial automation, voca-tional training should help match skilled workers with high value-added manufacturing and service jobs. Labor productivity will almost double, we estimate, with 55% of the increase coming from the agglomeration effects of supercities and 40% from rural-urban migration. Most importantly, we remain confident that China will reach high-income status as annual per-capita income almost dou-bles from US$9,450 today to US$17,800 by 2030.What could this mean for investment?We identify three key investment opportunities from Urbanization 2.0 as disruptive technologies unleash further growth potential:l Transition from consumer to industrial internet: 5G infra-structure, public cloud, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and software.l Digitalization of old-economy industries: Electric and auton-omous vehicles, smart grid and utilities, market-oriented banks and insurers, and smart farming.l New lifestyles in smart supercities: E-commerce, smart home appliances, online tutoring and vocational education, health-care, and railway construction. Although the views in this report are our base-case scenarios, we acknowledge that there is no way to foresee all risks that may arise from issues like automation, big data, and trade tensions, which could include job losses, a higher debt burden, or other unintended social issues. For more on risks, please see Where could we be wrong? BLUEPAPERM6Key Charts at a GlanceExhibit 1:Forecasts for Urbanization 2.0Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimatesBLUEPAPERMMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH 7Exhibit 2:From Urbanization 1.0 to 2.0Source: Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 3:Did you knowSource: NBS, Haver, Morgan Stanley Research BLUEPAPERM8Sector Implications Through 2030 Top Stocks for This Theme(1) From a consumer to an industrial internetTelecoms 5G capex to reach US$400bn in 2019-30, 2x that of 4G Key beneficiaries: 5G infrastructure companies China Tower (0788.HK) Alibaba (BABA.N) GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing (603986.SS) HIKVision Digital Technology (002415.SZ) Yonyou Network Technology (600588.SS) VenusTech (002439.SZ)Internet Enterprise IT spending on software and IT services to account for around 8% of global spending (vs. 3% now) Key beneficiaries: Technology leaders that are expanding from consumer to industrial applicationsTech Hardware and Software IoT device market size to more than double to US$700bn Software and IT services market size to fivefold to US$200bn Key beneficiaries: Top players geared to IoT and 5G; software vendors focusing on digital transformation or with smart city exposure(2) Digitalization of old-economy industriesAutos Shared mobility to take up 10% of total car parc (vs. 2% now) Market share of electric vehicles to reach one-third (vs. 4% in 2018) Share of cars with high/full automation to reach 20% (vs. 0% now) Key beneficiaries: Early movers in EVs and autonomous vehicles S.F. Holding (002352.SZ) NARI Technology (600406.SS) Ping An Bank (000001.S
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