新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）对供应链的影响.pdf

March 18, 2020 二二年三月十八日 2020 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China 版权所有 华南美国商会 2020年 Last updated: March 14, 2020 最后更新2020年3月14日 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China 22 nd Floor, Main Tower, Guangdong International Building, 339 Huanshi East Road, Guangzhou，Guangdong, PRC, 510098 华南美国商会 中华人民共和国广东省广州市越秀区环市东路339号广东国际大厦主楼22楼 （邮政 编码： 510098） Tel. (86 20) 8335 1476 Fax. (86 20) 8332 1642 amchamamcham-southchina amcham-southchina D ear Members, Our research for the 2020 White Paper on the Business Environment in China and analy- sis of data for our 2020 Special Report on the State of Business in South China showed signs of the worlds supply chain being overstretched. American companies as well as most compa- nies on the planet depend on this supply chain for various reasons. Many goods assembled in China or the US depend on raw material from and parts manufactured in many different countries in the world. As it is also presented in our White Paper, it will take 2-3 trillion US dol- lars to replace the current supply chain. A cost which the world, in the face of todays prob- lems it cannot afford. Therefore, it is of para- mount importance that, as we deal with the immediate problems already caused and to be caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, the two major economies of this supply chain must sit down to establish the stabilizer we have sug- gested in the above referenced two studies. The above assessment is reinforced by the results of this Special Report on the Im- pact of COVID-19 Outbreak on the Supply Chain. This study sounds not just a loud alarm but rather blurs out a siren not unlike the ones used during the cold war. This should be a wakeup call for every business and govern- ment leader around the globe and not just for those producing goods and services in China. Considering the fact that factories in China only 我们对 2020年中国营商环境白皮书 的研 究和对 2020年华南地区经济情况特别报告 数据 的分析表明， 世界供应链已经捉襟见肘。 出于各种 因素， 美国企业以及世界上的大多数企业都依赖于 这一供应链。 许多在中国或美国组装的货物依赖于 来自世界上许多不同国家的原材料和零部件。 正如 我们的 白皮书 中提及的那样， 需要投入2-3万亿美 元才能取代目前的供应链。 面对目前窘况， 这是世 界所无法承受的代价。 因此， 至关重要的是， 在我们 处理COVID-19爆发已经造成和可能造成的直接问 题时， 正如我们在上述两项研究报告中建议的， 这 一供应链中的两个主要经济体必须协商共同充当 稳定器的角色。这份 关于COVID-19疫情对供应链影响的特 别报告 的结果强化了上述评估。 这份报告不仅是 拉响了警笛， 究其紧迫性， 无异于冷战期间的警报。 不仅仅针对那些在中国生产商品和提供服务的企 业， 甚至为全球每一个企业和政府领导人敲响了 警钟。 考虑到中国的工厂只是在不到两周前才复 工， 32%的受访公司已经遇到困难， 并且已经或即 将面临所需的部件、 供应和/或材料不足的问题。 我 相信这是冰山一角。虽然中断的大部分原因是由于中国的物流业 尚未恢复之前的运营水平， 但许多公司谈到所需的 大量物资定期从日本、 韩国、 意大利和美国发出， 这 Presidents Message 会长致辞 尊 敬的会员：returned to work less than two weeks ago, 32% of companies surveyed are already ex- periencing difficulties and are already out of, or expect to be out of, needed components, supplies and/or material. I believe this to be a tip of the iceberg. While much of the disruption was due to the logistics industry in China not having reached previous operational levels, many of the companies reported a great deal of their needed items regularly being shipped from Japan, South Korea, Italy and the US coun- tries which are now under pressure from the outbreak and who have limited travel and transportation. One must keep in mind that a great deal of goods are air shipped via commercial flights and the cancellation of thousands of flights will with no doubt lead to shortage of transportation capacity, high- er shipping prices and even further delays in shipments between various nations. As I have suggested in my message in the White Paper, we remain hopeful and deter- mined that the US and China accelerate nego- tiations for a Phase Two trade agreement. Please stay safe. Dr. Harley Seyedin President, American Chamber of Commerce in South China Winner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace Award (together with Elon Musk) Awarded by the Award Committee of Nobel Laureates in Peace and Economics Visiting Scholar, Jinan University President, Allelon Energy Partners 些国家目前正受到疫情影响， 差旅和运输受到限制。 大家必须留意大量货物是通过商业航班空运的， 数千 航班的取消无疑将导致运输能力短缺、 航运价格上 涨， 以致各国之间的货运进一步延误。正如我在 白皮书 中所说的那样， 我们希望并 坚信美国和中国会加速第二阶段贸易协议的谈判。 祝好！ 哈利赛亚丁博士 华南美国商会会长 2017奥斯陆商业促和平奖获奖者 （同期获奖 者包括埃隆马斯克） 由诺贝尔和平奖及经济奖评审委员会授予 暨南大学访问学者 阿来龙能源总裁 Key Take Aways 关 键 要 点 T o determine the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on supply chain, the Ameri- can Chamber of Commerce in South China conducted a study of 237 random companies from March 9 to14, 2020. As in the past, American companies make up just over half while EU, Mainland China and other APEC countries represent the remaining partic- ipants. Multinational companies make up nearly half of the companies in the study and manufacturers represent 76% of the total. Nearly one third of the companies in the study are facing components, supplies or material shortages, with 15% of them report- ing to have already run out of components, supplies or material. 80% of the companies believe the prob- lems will last between one to three months. 100% of respondents are experienc- ing some impact on their operation due to disruptions in the supply chain. Some Multinationals have had to post- pone their product release affecting tens of thousands of employees globally. With 18% of the shortage of compo- nents, supplies or material being attributed to US, EU, and APEC countries (other than mainland China), the job losses in those countries as a result of disruption in the sup- ply chain will be substantial. 为 了确定新型冠状病毒COVID-19疫情爆发 对供应链的影响， 华南美国商会于2020年 3月9日至14日对237家随机会员企业进行了研 究。 和过去一样， 美国企业占比稍高于一半， 而其 他来源国包括欧盟、 中国大陆和其他亚太经合组 织国家。 跨国公司占本次研究公司的近一半， 制造 产业企业占总数的76%。 近三分之一的受访企业面临零部件、 物资或 材料短缺的问题， 其中15%的企业已经缺乏零部 件、 物资或材料。 80%的企业认为供应短缺问题将持续一到 三个月。 由于供应链中断， 100%受访企业的经营受 到一定程度影响。 一些跨国公司不得不延迟产品发布， 全球范 围内数万名员工受到影响。 本次研究中， 18%的零部件、 物资或材料的短 缺来自美国、 欧盟和亚太经合组织国家 （中国大陆 除外） ， 这些国家因供应链中断而造成的就业损失 将是巨大的。Demographics 受访企业组成Demographics Countries of Origin Size of Companies Small 10% Medium 42% MNC 48% Countries of Origin 来源国 亚太经合组织成员国 （中国大陆除外） 欧洲 中国大陆 美国Demographics Countries of Origin Size of Companies Small 10% Medium 42% MNC 48% Size of Companies 企业规模 小型企业 中型企业 跨国企业 Type of Business 业务类型 Type of Business Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on the Supply Chain Availability of components, supplies or material Considering that companies and factories reached reasonable levels of staffing just in the last two weeks, 32% of companies in the study are facing shortage of components, supplies or material. While 14% have already run out, 37% expect to run out within 30 days, and 43% expect to run out within 90 days. 80% of those do not expect to be fully supplied for as long as 3 months. Q: Do you have adequate components, supplies or material you need to operate? Manufacturing 76% Wholesale and retail 20% Logistics 4% 制造业 物流业 零售批发业Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on the Supply Chain 新型冠状病毒COVID-19疫情爆发 对供应链的影响 考 虑到企业和工厂在过去两周内达到了 合理的人员配置水平， 32%的受访企业 面临着零部件、 物资或材料短缺的问题。 32%的受 访企业中， 15%受访企业的生产供应链已经出现 短缺， 37%的受访企业预计30天内消耗完零部件、 物资或材料， 43%的受访企业预计90天内消耗完。 其中80%的受访企业预期未来3个月内生产供应 链得不到完全满足。 C onsidering that companies and factories reached reasonable levels of staffing just in the last two weeks, 32% of companies in the study are facing shortage of components, supplies or material. Of the 32%, 15% have already run out, 37% expect to run out within 30 days, and 43% expect to run out within 90 days. 80% of those do not expect to be fully supplied for as long as 3 months. Availability of Components, Supplies or Material 零部件、 物资或材料的供应 Q: How long before you expect to run out of components, supplies or material? Q: How long do you think shortages of components, supplies or material will last? Yes 68% No 32% Already Out 15% One Month 37% Three Months 43% 6 Months 4% Longer 1%Do you have adequate components, supplies or material you need to operate? 贵企业是否有足够的零件/材料供应来进行复工复产？ 否 是How long before you expect to run out of components, supplies or material? 现有零件/材料供应能维持多长时间？ Q: How long before you expect to run out of components, supplies or material? Q: How long do you think shortages of components, supplies or material will last? Yes 68% No 32% Already Out 15% One Month 37% Three Months 43% 6 Months 4% Longer 1% 现已短缺 一个月 三个月 六个月 长于六个月 否一个月 Disruption to operations 94% of the companies have been affected by disruptions in the supply chain. At least one major manufacturer of own high-tech products has delayed its launch of a new product in March due to shortage of components, supplies and material as well as difficulties with staffing/labor and logistics and limitation on meetings while another major multinational imports a great deal of its materials and supplies from Japan, South Korea and Italy, and difficulty with components, supplies or material arriving from those countries has influenced part of their production. These and other companies are concerned about the continued spread of impact of the virus in overseas market and additional impact as a result. Q: To what extent has your ability to manufacture been affected by disruptions in the supply chain? One Month 9% Three Months 80% 6 Months 6% Longer 5% How long do you think shortages of components, supplies or material will last? 您认为本次零件/材料供应短缺会持续多长时间？ 一个月 三个月 六个月 长于六个月Disruption to Operations 企业运行中断 100 %的受访企业受到供应链中断的 影响。 至少有一家高科技产品的著 名制造商推迟了原计划3月份推出新产品的计划， 主要原因包括缺少零件/物资/材料、 人员配置/劳 动力问题、 物流和会议受阻。 与此同时， 另一家著 名跨国企业大量依赖从日本、 韩国、 意大利进口材 料和物资。 来自这些国家的物资或材料受阻对他 们的部分生产造成了影响。 这些企业以及其他企 业对病毒在海外市场的持续蔓延及其所带来的额 外影响表示担忧。 100 % of the companies have been affected by disruptions in the supply chain. At least one major manufac- turer of own high-tech products has delayed its launch of a new product in March due to shortage of components, supplies and material as well as difficulties with staffing/la- bor and logistics and limitation on meetings while another major multinational imports a great deal of its materials and supplies from Japan, South Korea and Italy, and difficul- ty with components, supplies or material arriving from those countries has influenced part of their production. These and other companies are concerned about the contin- ued spread of impact of the virus in overseas market and additional impact as a result. To what extent has your ability to manufacture been affected by disruptions in the supply chain? 贵企业的生产能力在多大程度上受到供应链中断的影响？ Major Factors Contributing to Shortages Respondents believe a multitude of factors are contributing to the supply chain problems including transportation and logistics by themselves and their suppliers (57%), shortage of material and parts (17%), and shortage of labor (23%). Q: What has been the biggest factor to the shortage of components, supplies or material? Slightly 52% Mod e ra tely 42% Se ve rly 6% 严重受影响 轻微受影响 中等程度受影响 Major Factors Contributing to Shortages 造成供应短缺的主要因素 受 访者认为， 造成供应链问题的因素有很 多， 其中包括自身运输/物流及他们的 供应商(60%)， 材料和零部件短缺(17%)和劳动力 短缺(23%)。 R espondents believe a multitude of factors are contributing to the supply chain problems including transportation and logistics by themselves and their suppliers (60%), shortage of material and parts (17%), and shortage of labor (23%). What has been the biggest factor to the shortage of components, supplies or material? 导致零件/材料供应短缺的最大因素是什么？ Countries of Origin of components, supplies or material The majority of the components, supplies or material are sourced within mainland China. However, US, EU and APEC (other than mainland China) supply 18% of the total. This is quite substantial since 73% of the American companies in the study are primarily focused on the production of goods and services in China for the Chinese market and not for export. In fact very few manufacture for export to the US. Q: Which area does your shortage of components, supplies or material originate from? Transportation and logistics difficulties 45% Suppliers Having problems with delivery 15% Shortage of material and parts 17% Shortage of labor 23% 运输和物 流困难 劳动力短缺 供应商送货困难 材料和零 件短缺大 部分短缺的零件、 物资或材料主要来 自中国内地。 然而， 美国、 欧盟和亚太 经合组织(中国大陆除外)占短缺总量的18%。 这 是相当可观的， 因为调查结果显示73%的美国企 业主要关注是为中国市场提供的在中国生产的 商品和服务， 而不是出口。 事实上， 很少有制造商 出口到美国。 Countries of Origin of Compo- nents, Supplies or Material 零件、 物资或材料的原产国 T he majority of the shortage of components, supplies or material originate within mainland China. However, US, EU and APEC (other than mainland China) account for 18% of the shortage of the components, supplies or material. This is quite substantial since 73% of the American companies in the study are primarily focused on the production of goods and services in China for the Chinese market and not for export. Which area does your shortage of components, supplies or material originate from? 短缺的零件/材料供应来自哪个地区？ Countries Most Impacted Companies report that after mainland China products sourced from the United States are most impacted by the disruption in the supply chain. It is not difficult to deduce that manufacturing job losses in US, EU and other countries will be substantial giving cause to the need for major international cooperation to mitigate the impact. Q: Due to the disruption in the supply chain, from which of the following areas is your product availability affected in? U.S. 10% Mainland China 81% APEC (Other than Mainland China) 6% Europ 2% Others 1% U.S. 22% Mainland China 63% APEC (Other than Mainland China) 9% Europ 4% Others 2% Eur ope 欧洲 美国 亚太经合组 织 （中国大 陆除外） 中国大陆 其他 Countries Most Impacted 受影响最大的国家 企 业报告说，中国大陆从美国采购的 产品受供应链中断的影响最大。不 难推测出美国、欧盟和其他国家的制造业工 作岗位将大幅减少，这也说明各国需要共同 合作以减轻影响。 C ompanies report that after main- land China products sourced from the United States are most impacted by the disruption in the supply chain. It is not difficult to deduce that manufactur- ing job losses in US, EU and other coun- tries will be substantial, giving cause to the need for major international cooper- ation to mitigate the impact. Countries Most Impacted Companies report that after mainland China products sourced from the United States are most impacted by the disruption in the supply chain. It is not difficult to deduce that manufacturing job losses in US, EU and other countries will be substantial giving cause to the need for major international cooperation to mitigate the impact. Q: Due to the disruption in the supply chain, from which of the following areas is your product availability affected in? U.S. 10% Mainland China 81% APEC (Other than Mainland China) 6% Europ 2% Others 1% U.S. 22% Mainland China 63% APEC (Other than Mainland China) 9% Europ 4% Others 2%Due to the disruption in the supply chain, from which of the following areas is your product availability affected in? 由于供应链中断 ， 贵企业产品可用性受到以下哪些方面的影响？ 中国大陆 美国 Eur ope 欧洲 亚太经合组 织 （中国大 陆除外） 其他THE AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE IN SOUTH CHINA 华南美国商会 22 ndFloor, Main Tower, Guangdong International Building, 339 Huanshi East Road, Guangzhou， Guangdong, PRC, 510098 中华人民共和国广东省广州市越秀区环市东路339号广东国际大厦主楼22楼 （邮政编码： 510098） Tel电话 : 86-20-8335-1476 |Fax传真 : 86-20-8335-1642 Website网