资源描述
MARKETVIEW Vacancy Rose in Ginza Demands Focused on Prime Locations Figure 1: Retail Sales expanding the type of retailer they are willing to lease to; and reducing lease periods in exchange for accepting rent levels that are lower than their original asking rents. Landlords have been forced to adopt this more flexible approach due to the fact that an increase in available properties in the area has meant that properties in less attractive locations are now requiring significant time to secure new tenants. Prime rents in Shibuya remained level with the previous quarter at JPY 300,000. Some demands for store opening were seen from luxury brands aiming to appeal to a younger demographic. 4 JAPAN RETAIL Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. | JAPAN RETAIL Figure 4: New Store Openings by Location (by number) Note: Compiled from select sectors and locations. Source: CBRE Research, company press releases and media reports CBRE, Q4 2020. Figure 5: New Store Openings by Sector (by number) Note: Compiled from select sectors and locations. Source: CBRE Research, company press releases and media reports CBRE, Q4 2020. 13% 38% 23% 26% Ginza Omotesando/Harajuku Shinjuku Shibuya 64% 10% 8% 5% 3% 10% F&B Fashion Furniture&Goods Drug Store Health&Beauty Other Q4 2020 Q4 2020MARKETVIEW Figure 6: Key Store Openings in Tokyo Q4 2020 Figure 7: Upcoming Retail Developments in Tokyo (GFA of 1,000 tsubo or more) Name Area Size (approx tsubo) Developer Open (Tentative) Udagawacho 32 Development Plan SHIBUYA 1,000 Hulic Mar. 2021 HULIC &New SHINJUKU SHINJUKU 1,100 Hulic May. 2021 (Tentative) Ginza 6 Chome Namiki dori Development Plan GINZA 1,600 Hulic May. 2022 (Tentative) Minami Aoyama 3 Chome Project OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 4,500 Mitsubishi Estate Sep. 2022 Kabukicho 1 Chome Area Development Project SHINJUKU 26,620 TokyuCorporation, TokyuRecreation Fall 2022 (Tentative) Jingumae 6-chome Redevelopment OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 6,000 TokyuLand Corporation 2022 (Tentative) Shibuya-ku Dogenzaka 2 Chome Development Plan SHIBUYA 12,400 Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation Mar. 2023 Seiho Building Development Plan OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 4,840 Seiho Building, Urban Renaissance Agency Sep. 2023 SHIBUYA SCRAMBLE SQUARE (Second term) SHIBUYA 12,100 Tokyu Corporation Mar. 2028 *Floor area may contain non-retail spaces. Source: CBRE, company press releases and media report, Q4 2020. Tenant Area Size (approx tsubo) Building Name Paul Stuart OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 100 the ARGYLE aoyama YOKU MOKU MUSEUM OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU N/A N/A BLUE LABEL / BLACK LABEL CRESTBRIDGE HARAJUKU OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 90 Sando Harajyuku building UNKNOWN HARAJUKU OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 30 N/A BASE Lab. OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 10 LAFORET HARAJUKU FENDI CAFFE OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU N/A ANNIVERSAIRE Omotesando Hermanmiller OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 40 No.42 Arai building COLE HAAN OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 50 310 Omotesando Maison KOSE OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 60 StarBuilding Omotesando RALPHS COFFEE SHINJUKU N/A Shinjuku LUMINE2 Cocokara fine SHINJUKU 270 HULIC&NewSHINJUKU IKEA SHIBUYA 1,450 Takagibuilding MASK CLUB SHIBUYA N/A Shibuya Center building Source: CBRE, company press releases and media reports, Q4 2020. 5 JAPAN RETAIL Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. MARKETVIEW KANSAI: SHINSAIBASHI LUXURY BRANDS SEEK STORE SPACE ON MIDO-SUJI During Q4 2020, a property in the high street area of Mido-suji confirmed a high-end wristwatch brand as its new tenant at a rent that was at par with the pre-pandemic level. At another property on Mido-suji, multiple tenders were received from interested luxury brands at rates roughly equivalent to the asking rent. Additionally, several high-end wristwatch brands, whose sales are thriving as a result of rising stock prices, and other luxury brands without a street-level store presence in the Shinsaibashi area, have expressed interest in some properties, as they look to establish a retail foothold in the area in the near future. In contrast, properties north of Nagahori- dori are struggling to attract much interest despite the implementation of tenant-friendly strategies including property subdivision and lowering of asking rents. In the area extending from the Shinsaibashi-suji shopping district to Ebisubashi, the loss of inbound tourist demand and the decrease of Japanese visitors have rendered the cost of rent insurmountable for many retailers, leading many tenants to consider closing their stores, if they have not already done so. In response, building owners are adopting a flexible approach to asking rents in order to encourage prospective tenants. In light of the current market environment, some owners are even lowering rents for their current tenants in order to persuade them to stay. In November 2020, the former Daimaru Shinsaibashi North Building reopened as Shinsaibashi PARCO, a retail and entertainment complex extending across 14 above-ground levels and two below ground, with a total retail floorspace of 12,100 tsubo. Containing roughly 170 retail outlets, the complex had anticipated annual sales of approximately JPY 22.0 billion in its business projections made prior to the pandemic. KANSAI: UMEDA VACANCIES INCREASE IN COMMERCIAL FACILITIES SOUTH OF OSAKA STATION A property in the Chaya-machi area vacated by a restaurant due to flagging sales found a new F&B tenant. Elsewhere, a property in a newly- developed building in the same area was leased by a convenience store chain. At the same time, however, continued weak sales have forced some existing tenants to file requests with their landlords to extend rent reduction periods. Other news included a fashion accessory brand applying for tenancy of a relatively small unit within a commercial facility near Osaka Station at a similar rent to that paid by the previous tenant. Demand was also observed from a retailer wishing to open a showroom in a space of over 100 tsubo in a commercial facility on the south side of the station. However, a retailer occupying a larger unit near the station was forced to relinquish part of its property due to a decline in customer numbers. In addition, there were cases where the vacancy of the F&B area was prolonged. At a commercial facility a little further away from the south side of the station, which had already been burdened with vacancies resulting from the impact of measures to contain the pandemic, several more tenants vacated their stores, leading to a further increase in vacancy numbers. On the back of declining visitor numbers caused by a resurgence in COVID-19 infections, Umeda prime rents fell by 20% q-o-q to JPY 200,000 per tsubo. In December, a joint venture of nine companies (“JV9”) led by Mitsubishi Estate announced that construction would begin on the Umekita Area Second Zone Development Project. The project is planned to encompass approximately 3,800 tsubo of retail space across one subterranean and three above-ground levels in the South Block, together with roughly 1,800 tsubo for an urban spa facility across two higher floors in the East Tower of the same block, and approximately 900 tsubo across two floors in the North Block, for a total of around 6,500 tsubo of retail floor space. 6 JAPAN RETAIL Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. MARKETVIEW 7 JAPAN RETAIL Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. | KANSAI: KYOTO DEMAND FROM MULTIPLE HIGH-END WRISTWATCH BRANDS FOR HIGH STREET STORE SPACE A high-end wristwatch brand expressed interest in establishing a storefront presence in a newly- developed high street property. However, its proposed rent is roughly 20% below the asking rent. A separate high-end wristwatch brand is examining the possibility of establishing a new store in a property on Shijo-dori, whose current tenants lease is about to expire. In contrast, another available unit, while boasting relatively extensive floor space and therefore commanding high rents, has struggled so far to finalise a new tenant. While interest has been expressed by a domestic brand, the latest wave of COVID-19 infections has caused negotiations to stagnate. The owner has indicated a willingness to lower rents if necessary to secure a tenant. As a result of these trends, prime rents in Kyoto this quarter fell 5% q-o-q to JPY 95,000. One tenant that opened a new store in summer 2019 in an area which had been popular with both domestic and international tourists is now considering closing due to the prolonged pandemic, and is actively searching for a tenant to take over the lease. KANSAI: KOBE PRIME RENTS FALL AS HIGH-RENT PROPERTIES FAIL TO ATTRACT INTEREST Multiple retailers were observed to be considering a relatively small property in Center Gai near Sannomiya Station at rent levels unchanged from before the pandemic. At the same time, existing tenants have decided to vacate a number of properties in the same area, including one relatively large unit in Centre Gai and multiple locations in the high street areas of Koikawa-suji and Nakamachi-dori. Owners of properties in the Former Foreign Settlement area, including one relatively large unit, are finding it difficult to secure new tenants even after lowering asking rents. With the emergence of a new wave of COVID-19 infections, visitor numbers to the area have declined. This has led to a general weakening in new retail demand, lowering Kobe prime rents by 16.7% q-o-q to JPY 100,000 per tsuboMARKETVIEW JAPAN RETAIL Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. | 8 NAGOYA: SAKAE INTEREST FROM MULTIPLE RETAILERS IN AVAILABLE GROUND FLOOR PROPERTIES In Q4 2020 a high-end wristwatch brand expressed interest in establishing a storefront presence in a relatively small high street property, at a comparable rent level to that paid by the units previous tenant. Another available property in a highly-valued location is attracting less interest as a result of its above-market rate asking rent and narrow frontage. Multiple retailers who signed n e wl e a s e si nQ 32 0 2 0a r em o v i n ga h e a dw i t h their original plans to open for business in Q1 2021. A relatively large unit in a secondary area secured an overseas brand as a new tenant. The owner had unsuccessfully been aiming to lease its multiple-storey premise to a single tenant, and the decision to lease the ground floor separately succeeded in generating interest from multiple retailers. However, the agreed rent is seen to be below what had been paid by the previous tenant. Meanwhile, another multi-level property in the same secondary area has so far failed to attract interest, except from retailers who are interested only in the street-level unit. November 2020 saw the opening of BINO Sakae, a new commercial facility located at the Sakae intersection where Hirokoji-dori and Otsu-dori meet. Directly accessible from the Crystal Plaza in the Sakae Chika subterranean shopping complex, BINO Sakae houses 16 stores located across seven floors. In addition to multiple luxury wristwatch brands opening their first Nagoya stores within its premises, BINO Sakae also hosts tenants who have relocated from elsewhere in the Sakae area, as well as a drugstore and a number of different restaurants and cafes. FUKUOKA: TENJIN VACANCY IS PROLONGED FOR LARGE PREMISES During the quarter, one retailer moved premises within the Tenjin area for location upgrade, paying ar e n to n l ys l i g h t l yb e l o wt h a tp a i db yt h e propertys previous tenant. Several high street properties, however, remained vacant. Their relatively large size which results in large total rent payment appears to be dissuading retailers from expressing serious interest. As the long-term owners of these properties have displayed no signs of rushing to secure tenants via expanding their target industries or lowering rents, prime rents in the Tenjin area remained unchanged for the 12th consecutive quarter at JPY 100,000 per tsubo. Figure 8: Key Store Openings in Osaka and Nagoya Q4 2020 Tenant Area Size (approx tsubo) Building Name AOYAMA UMEDA 230 UMEDA-SEIWA building TIFFANY & Co. SHINSAIBASHI 90 SHINSAIBASHI PARCO EMPORIO ARMANI SHINSAIBASHI N/A SHINSAIBASHI PARCO Maison Margiela SHINSAIBASHI 40 SHINSAIBASHI PARCO BURBERRY SHINSAIBASHI 40 SHINSAIBASHIPARCO THE NORTH FACE UNLIMITED SHINSAIBASHI 40 SHINSAIBASHI PARCO TUDOR SHINSAIBASHI 30 Creative Shinsaibashi IWC SAKAE 20 BINO SAKAE ROLEX SAKAE 70 BINO SAKAE HUBLOT SAKAE 40 BINO SAKAE Source: CBRE, company press releases and media reports, Q4 2020MARKETVIEW JAPAN RETAIL Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. | 9 Figure 11: Prime Rent Figure 10: Vacancy Rate Prime Rent (JPY / Tsubo / Month) Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 TOKYO GINZA 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 OMOTESANDO / HARAJUKU 350,000 330,000 300,000 300,000 SHINJUKU 350,000 315,000 300,000 300,000 SHIBUYA 330,000 330,000 300,000 300,000 KANSAI SHINSAIBASHI 300,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 UMEDA 300,000 250,000 250,000 200,000 KYOTO 140,000 120,000 100,000 95,000 KOBE 130,000 120,000 120,000 100,000 NAGOYA SAKAE 140,000 120,000 100,000 100,000 FUKUOKA TENJIN 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Vacancy Rate Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 TOKYO GINZA 2.1% 1.7% 2.6% 3.3% OMOTESANDO / HARAJUKU 0.7% 1.8% 2.7% 2.9% KANSAI SHINSAIBASHI 0.9% 1.3% 5.1% 6.5% NAGOYA SAKAE 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% Source: CBRE, Q4 2020. Source: CBRE, Q4 2020. Figure 9: Upcoming Retail Developments in Osaka and Nagoya (GFA of 1,000 tsubo or more) Name Area Size* (approx tsubo) Developer Open Osaka Umeda Twin Towers South (Second term) UMEDA *7,300 Hankyu Hanshin Holdings. Inc. Fall 2021* (Tentative) Maruei Site SAKAE N/A Kowa Company, Limited Mar. 2022 (Tentative) Chunichi Building Redevelopment SAKAE 2,300 The Chunichi Shimbun, Chunichi Building Spring 2024 (Tentative) Umeda 3-Chome Plan UMEDA 4,840 Japan Post Holdings, West Japan Railway Company 2024 (Tentative) Umekita Phase 2 Development Project UMEDA 6,500 ORIX Real Estate Corporation, Hankyu Railway, etc. Aug. 2024 Osaka Station New Station Building (Tentative) UMEDA 17,850 Osaka Terminal Building Fall 2024 . Source: CBRE, company press releases and media report, Q4 2020. *Floor area may contain non-retail spaces. *The figure excludes the area which opens in June 2018 (First Phase). 9 *We have slightly revised the scope of area for vacancy survey. Accordingly, some of the past vacancy rates have also been changedMARKETVIEW Disclaimer: All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or consid
展开阅读全文