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MARKETVIEW Record year for industrial and logistics transactions Australia Industrial and Logistics, Q4 2020 INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT AS LOCKDOWNS LIFT Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 1 -3.5% y-o-y *Arrows indicate change from previous quarter. Source: CBRE Research Q4 2020 -4.1% y-o-y Industrial GVA was negative at -8.3% Q3 2020. Average super prime industrial rents were flat. Australian super prime rents average $112/sqm. Super prime yields have compressed by 32bp y-o-y resulting in record low yields. Land values increased by 3.6% q-o-q with Australian 1.6ha lots averaging $580/sqm. 0.25ha lots increased by 10.0% q-o-q to $734/sqm. Transaction volumes in Q4 totalled $1.93b over 61 transactions. This was 33% lower than volumes recorded in Q4 2019. Transaction volumes in 2020 totalled $8.9b,the highest on record. -32 bps y-o-y 0.9% y-o-y Chart 1: Industrial and Logistics Sales Volumes AUSTRALIA INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sa les Volu me ($m ) Sales Volume (LHS) No. of deals MARKETVIEW LAND VALUES CREEP UPWARDS AS INVESTORS SEEK SCALE TRANSACTION VOLUMES REACH RECORD HIGHS SUPER PRIME YIELDS COMPRESS EVEN FURTHER Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 2 AUSTRALIA INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS Table 1: Australian Super Prime Warehouse Rents and Yields (as at Q4 2020) Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 (note: Australia is a simple average) Chart 2: Super Prime Yields Market/Grade Average Net Rent ($/sqm) y-o-y change (%) Average Yield (%) y-o-y change (bps) Average Capital Value ($/sqm) y-o-y change (%) Australia $113.00 0.9% 5.40% -32 $2,132 6.9% Sydney $139.00 0.8% 4.50% -21 $3,086 5.4% Melbourne $93.00 -0.7% 4.68% -32 $1,988 6.1% Brisbane $125.00 1.0% 5.25% -25 $2,381 5.8% Perth $90.00 0.0% 5.50% -25 $1,636 4.5% Canberra $125.00 2.5% 6.75% -25 $1,852 6.3% Adelaide $104.00 1.8% 5.71% -63 $1,847 13.3% Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 Greater Adelaide Greater Brisbane Greater Melbourne Greater Perth Greater Sydney MARKETVIEW Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 3 AUSTRALIA INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS Table 2: Key Transactions Q4 2020 ADDRESS SUBURB STATE SALE PRICE ($M) BUILDING AREA (sqm) SALE DATE 60 Swann Dr Derrimut VIC - - Dec-20 125 & 133 Foundation Road, 20 Prestige Place Truganina VIC 127.0 44,137 Nov-20 338 Bradman Street Acacia Ridge QLD 114.0 55,000 Oct-20 1502 Beaudesert Road Acacia Ridge QLD 93.0 76,940 Oct-20 342-368 Hammond Road Dandenong South VIC 87.1 21,418 Nov-20 Polaris Road Mickleham VIC 83.0 90,000 Nov-20 205-231 Fairfield Rd Fairfield NSW 74.8 31,085 Nov-20 67-69 Mandoon Rd Girraween NSW 73.1 24,826 Dec-20 500 Green Road Crestmead QLD 69.8 38,000 Dec-20 16-28 Quarry Road Stapylton QLD 65.5 40,970 Dec-20 151 Leakes Road Truganina VIC 60.0 38,550 Dec-20 30 Mandible St Sydney NSW 58.9 - Oct-20 41 S Centre Rd Tullamarine VIC 53.0 13,716 Nov-20 45 Fulton Drive Derrimut VIC 49.0 10,848 Nov-20 60-80 Southlink Street Parkinson QLD 49.0 8,413 Nov-20 140S Paramount Boulevard Cranbourne West VIC 48.8 35,511 Nov-20 130-138 Link Rd Tullamarine VIC 41.1 21,336 Nov-20 136 Zillmere Road Boondall QLD 39.6 16,048 Dec-20 55 Sky Rd Tullamarine VIC 38.8 10,049 Nov-20 2115 Castlereagh Rd Sydney NSW 30.0 33,785 Dec-20 MARKETVIEW The New South Wales economy, alongside the rest of Australia, slowed. Private investment, in particular, fell significantly. Increases in infrastructure investment will be welcomed to help drive growth in the post-COVID19 economy. Over the past year, over 680 ,000sqm of industrial supply was added to the Sydney industrial market. Much of this was in the outer west and outer south west submarkets. Greater Sydney industrial land values have grown 12% annually over the past five years. Land value growth has been particularly impressive in inner parts of Sydney, nearest residential centres. Yields compressed this quarter as the I&L sector looks secure relative to the office and retail sectors. Investor interest in this asset class is keeping yields down. WEAKNESS IN 2020 SHORT LIVED TRANSACTION VOLUMES SURGE 2019 CBRE, Inc. |4 NEW SOUTH WALES INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS -3.3% y-o-y 6% y-o-y 0% y-o-y -21bps y-o-y HEADLINE RESULTS Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 4 MARKETVIEW 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Central West Metro West North Shore North West Northern Sydney Outer South West Outer West South Sydney South West NEW SOUTH WALES INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. Chart 4: Sydney Industrial Sales (greater than $5m) Chart 5: Sydney Industrial Supply Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. Chart 6: Sydney Warehouse Yields by Sub Region Chart 3: Sydney v Australia Super Prime Net Face Rent Growth Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 SYDNEY Q4 2020 KEY METRICS 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 5Q4 2020 CBRE Research -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Ann ual Rent Gro wth Greater Sydney Australia 0 50 100 150 200 250 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sales Volu me ($m ) Sales Volume Number of Deals (RHS) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 Central West North West Outer West South Sydney South West Secondary Super Prime MARKETVIEW Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 6 VICTORIA INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS HEADLINE RESULTS SUPER PRIME YIELDS COMPRESS AMID GROWING DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL A ND LOGISTICS ASSETS RENTS STABILISE AS LOCKDOWN LIFTS Economic growth in Victoria fell sharply to -9.8% y-o-y at Q3 2020, primarily driven by a slow down in private consumption. Melbournes prolonged lockdown will see economic recovery take longer when compared to other states. Approximately 226,000 sqm of industrial supply hit the market in Q4 2020, up 350% from Q4 2019. Land values in Melbourne have increased 2.7% y-o-y, fueled by limited supply and sustained demand. Super prime yields compressed a further17bp q-o-q in Q4 2020. -9.8% y-o-y 350% y-o-y 2.7% y-o-y -32bps y-o-y MARKETVIEW Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 7 VICTORIA INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS Chart 8: Melbourne Industrial Sales (greater than $5m) Chart 9: Melbourne New Supply Chart 10: Melbourne Warehouse Yields by Sub Region Chart 7: Melbourne v Australia Net Face Rent Growth MELBOURNE Q4 2020 KEY METRICS Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022New Su pply (00 0 sqm) West South East North Inner East (5)% 0% 5% 10% 15% Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Ann ual Ren t Growth Greater Melbourne Australia 0 50 100 150 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sale s Vol ume ($m) Sales Volume Number of Deals (RHS) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 East Inner North South East West Secondary Super Prime MARKETVIEW In Q3 2020, State Final Demand in Queensland rose by 6.8% q-o-q, the equal highest (with NSW) of any state in Australia. The strength of household consumption from relatively limited COVID-19 restrictions was the major factor that contributed to the positive result for the state. New completed supply in Q4 2020 was subdued with just 19,400 sqm delivered to the market. The total supply for 2020 was slightly higher than the total for 2019, however a drop is expected next year. Industrial land values remained steady in Q4 2020 across the Brisbane market. Land sales volumes have been subdued during the pandemic, with limited evidence of a change in pricing. Super prime yields continued to tighten by 10 basis points to average 5.25% in Q4 2020, with strong demand and a lack of stock on the market putting upward pressure on pricing. INCENTIVES EDGE HIGHER WITH WEAKER LEASING DEMAND INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN 2020 OUTPACES 2019 2019 CBRE, Inc. |8 QUEENSLAND INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS -5.2% y-o-y Up y-o-y Stable y-o-y -10bp y-o-y HEADLINE RESULTS Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 4 MARKETVIEW QUEENSLAND INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Chart 12: Brisbane Industrial Sales (greater than $5m) Chart 13: Brisbane Industrial Supply Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Chart 14: Brisbane Warehouse Yields by Sub Region Chart 11: Brisbane v Australia Super Prime Net Face Rent Growth Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 BRISBANE Q4 2020 KEY METRICS 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 5Q4 2020 CBRE Research -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Ann ual Ren t Growth Greater Brisbane Australia 0 100 200 300 400 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 New S upp ly ( 00 0 sqm ) Gateway North Gateway South North Outer South Western Corridor M1 Corridor 0 20 40 60 80 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sale s Vol ume ($m) Sales Volume Number of Deals (RHS) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 Gateway North Gateway South M1 Corridor Outer South Western Corridor Secondary Super Prime MARKETVIEW State final demand grew by 4.9% over the three months to September 2020, taking the y-o-y growth rate to -0.7%. 18,150sqm of new industrial floorspace was completed over the December quarter, down 50.3% from the year prior. Pricing of lots sized 1.6ha remained unchanged over both the quarter and the year to December. Super prime yields fell by 25 basis points over the year to December to 5.50%, with investors remaining active for quality assets despite limited buying opportunities. HANDLING OF THE PANDEMIC DRIVES BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MARKET FUNDAMENTALS BENEFITING INDUSTRIAL OCCUPIERS WEIGHT OF CAPITAL TO HELP UNLOCK PRODUCT IN 2021 Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 10 WESTERN AUSTRALIA INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS -0.7% y-o-y -50.3% y-o-y Stable y-o-y -25bps y-o-y HEADLINE RESULTS MARKETVIEW 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 New Su pply (00 0 sqm) South North East Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2020 CBRE, Inc. | 11 WESTERN AUSTRALIA INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS Chart 16: Perth Industrial Sales (greater than $5m) Chart 17: Perth New Supply Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Chart 18: Perth Warehouse Yields by Sub Region Chart 15: Perth Net Face Rent Growth Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 PERTH Q4 2020 KEY METRICS Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Ann ual Rent Gro wth Greater Perth Australia 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sales Volu me ($m) Sales Volume Number of Deals (RHS) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 East North South Secondary Super Prime MARKETVIEW Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. AUSTRALIA INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS CONTACTS CBRE OFFICES
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