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Making Mission Possible Version 1.0 Delivering a Net-Zero Economy September 2020 Delivering a Net-Zero Economy Making Mission Possible The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) is a coalition of global leaders from across the energy landscape: energy producers, energy-intensive industries, equipment providers, finance players and environmental NGOs. Our mission is to work out how to build a global economy which can both enable developing countries to attain developed world standards of living and ensure that the world limits global warming to well below 2C and as close as possible to 1.5C. For this objective to be reached, the world needs to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by around mid-century. The ETC is co-chaired by Lord Adair Turner and Dr. Ajay Mathur. Our Commissioners are listed on the next page. The Making Mission Possible report was developed by the Commissioners with the support of the ETC Secretariat, provided by SYSTEMIQ. It brings together and builds on past ETC publications, developed in close consultation with hundreds of experts from companies, industry initiatives, international organisations, non-governmental organisations and academia. The report draws upon analyses carried out by Climate Policy Initiative, Copenhagen Economics, Material Economics, McKinsey Co-chair Energy Transitions Commission Dr Mara Mendiluce, Chief Executive Officer We Mean Business Mr Jon Moore, Chief Executive Officer BloombergNEF Mr Julian Mylchreest, Managing Director, Global Co-head of Natural Resources (Energy, Power while “carbon capture and use” refers to the use of carbon in carbon-based products in which CO 2 is sequestered over the long term (eg, in concrete, aggregates, carbon fibre). Carbon- based products that only delay emissions in the short term (eg, synfuels) are excluded when using this terminology. Carbon emissions / CO 2 emissions: We use these terms interchangeably to describe anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Carbon offsets: Reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) or greenhouse gases made by a company, sector or economy to compensate for emissions made elsewhere in the economy. Carbon price: A government-imposed pricing mechanism, the two main types being either a tax on products and services based on their carbon intensity, or a quota system setting a cap on permissible emissions in the country or region and allowing companies to trade the right to emit carbon (i.e. as allowances). This should be distinguished from some companies use of what are sometimes called “internal” or “shadow” carbon prices, which are not prices or levies, but individual project screening values. Circular economy models: Economic models that ensure the recirculation of resources and materials in the economy, by recycling a larger share of materials, reducing waste in production, light-weighting products and structures, extending the lifetimes of products, and deploying new business models based around sharing of cars, buildings, and more. Combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT): An assembly of heat engines that work in tandem from the same source of heat to convert it into mechanical energy driving electric generators. Decarbonisation solutions: We use the term “decarbonisation solutions” to describe technologies or business models that reduce anthropogenic carbon emissions by unit of product or service delivered though energy productivity improvement, fuel/feedstock switch, process change or carbon capture. This does not necessarily entail a complete elimination of CO 2 use, since (i) fossil fuels might still be used combined with CCS/U, (ii) the use of biomass or synthetic fuels can result in the release of CO 2 , which would have been previously sequestered from the atmosphere though biomass growth or direct air capture, and (iii) CO 2 might still be embedded in the materials (eg, in plastics). Direct air capture (DAC): The extraction of carbon dioxide from atmospheric air. Electrolysis: A technique that uses electric current to drive an otherwise non-spontaneous chemical reaction. One form of electrolysis is the process that decomposes water into hydrogen and oxygen, taking place in an electrolyser and producing “green hydrogen”. It can be zero-carbon if the electricity used is zero-carbon. Embedded carbon emissions: Lifecycle carbon emissions from a product, including carbon emissions from the materials input production and manufacturing process. Emissions from the energy and industrial system: All emissions arising either from the use of energy or from chemical reactions in industrial processes across the energy, industry, transport and buildings sectors. It excludes emissions from the agriculture sector and from land use changes. Emissions from land use: All emissions arising from land use change, in particular deforestation, and from the management of forest, cropland and grazing land. The global land use system is currently emitting CO 2 as well as other greenhouse gases, but may in the future absorb more CO 2 than it emits. Energy productivity: Energy use per unit of GDP. Final energy consumption: All energy supplied to the final consumer for all energy uses. Fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV): Electric vehicle using a fuel cell generating electricity to power the motor, generally using oxygen from the air and compressed hydrogen. Greenhouse gases (GHGs): Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere CO 2 (76%), methane (16%), nitrous oxide (6%) and fluorinated gases (2%). Hydrocarbons: An organic chemical compound composed exclusively of hydrogen and carbon atoms. Hydrocarbons are naturally occurring compounds and form the basis of crude oil, natural gas, coal and other important energy sources. Internal combustion engine (ICE): A traditional engine, powered by gasoline, diesel, biofuels or natural gas. It is also possible to burn ammonia or hydrogen in an ICE. Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE): A measure of the average net present cost of electricity generation for a generating plant over its lifetime. The LCOE is calculated as the ratio between all the discounted costs over the lifetime of an electricity-generating plant divided by a discounted sum of the actual energy amounts delivered. Natural carbon sinks: Natural reservoirs storing more CO 2 than they emit. Forests, plants, soils and oceans are natural carbon sinks. Nature-based solutions: Actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems which constitute natural carbon sinks, while simultaneously providing human, societal and biodiversity benefits. Near-total-variable-renewable power system: We use this term to refer to a power system where 85-90% of power supply is provided by variable renewable energies (solar and wind), while 10-15% is provided by dispatchable/peaking capacity, which can be hydro, biomass plants or fossil fuels plants (combined with carbon capture to reach a zero-carbon power system). Net-zero-carbon-emissions / Net-zero- carbon / Net-zero: We use these terms interchangeably to describe the situation in which the energy and industrial system as a whole or a specific economic sector releases no CO 2 emissions either because it doesnt produce any or because it captures the CO 2 it produces to use or store. In this situation, the use of offsets from other sectors (“real net-zero”) should be extremely limited and used only to compensate for residual emissions from imperfect levels of carbon capture, unavoidable end-of-life emissions, or remaining emissions from the agriculture sector. Primary energy consumption: Crude energy directly used at the source or supplied to users without transformation that is, energy that has not been subjected to a conversion or transformation process. Steam methane reforming (SMR): A process in which methane from natural gas is heated and reacts with steam to produce hydrogen. SMR with carbon capture and storage (SMR+CCS): Hydrogen production from SMR, where the carbon emitted from the combustion of natural gas is captured to be stored or used. Sustainable biomass / bio-feedstock / bioenergy: In this report, the term sustainable biomass is used to describe biomass that is produced without triggering any destructive land use change (in particular deforestation), is grown and harvested in a way that is mindful of ecological considerations (such as biodiversity and soil health), and has a lifecycle carbon footprint at least 50% lower than the fossil fuels alternative (considering the opportunity cost of the land, as well as the timing of carbon sequestration and carbon release specific to each form of bio-feedstock and use). Synfuels: Hydrocarbon liquid fuels produced synthesising hydrogen from water, carbon dioxide and electricity. They can be zero- carbon if the electricity input is zero-carbon and the CO 2 from direct air capture. Also known as “synthetic fuels”, “power-to-fuels” or “electro-fuels”. Zero-carbon energy sources: Term used to refer to renewables (including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal energy), sustainable biomass, nuclear and fossil fuels if and when their use can be decarbonised through carbon capture. Glossary Making Mission Possible Delivering a Net-Zero Economy 5 Foreword 1. IEA (2019), World Energy Outlook 2019 2. Energy Transitions Commission (2017), Greater Energy Better Prosperity 3. Spencer, T. and Awasthy, A. (2019), TERI, Analysing and Projecting Indian Electricity Demand to 2030. Pachouri, R., Spencer, T., and Renjith, G., TERI (2019), Exploring Electricity Supply-Mix Scenarios to 2030, and Udetanshi, Pierpont, B., Khurana, S. and Nelson, D., TERI (2019), Developing a roadmap to a flexible, lowcarbon Indian electricity system: interim findings 4. Energy Transitions Commission (2018), Mission Possible 5. Energy Transitions Commission and Rocky Mountain Institute (2019), China 2050: A Fully Developed Rich Zero-Carbon Economy Energy is essential to increased economic prosperity. But if global energy growth continues in line with past trends and energy supply continues to depend primarily on fossil fuels, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will rise to levels that threaten catastrophic climate change. Even after allowing for significant improvements in energy productivity and for the impact of announced policies, the International Energy Agencys (IEA) Current Policies Scenario shows us en route to 3C warming. 1 The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) is a coalition of global leaders from across the energy landscape: energy producers, energy-intensive industries, equipment providers, finance players and environmental NGOs. Our mission is to work out how to build a global economy which can both enable developing countries to attain developed world standards of living and ensure that the world limits global warming to well below 2C and as close as possible to 1.5C. For this objective to be reached, the world needs to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around mid-century. Over the last four years, the ETC has issued several reports which address aspects of that challenge Exhibit A. In Better Energy, Greater Prosperity2 (April 2017), we argued that it was possible: (i) to drastically slow down the forecasted growth in global energy demand while still improving living standards in developing economies; and (ii) to decarbonise electricity systems far faster and cheaper than previously assumed. Reports on the Indian power system 3 (February 2019 and July 2020) confirmed that this conclusion holds true even in a challenging environment by describing how India could rapidly expand electricity supply to meet fast- growing demand without building any more coal-fired power stations. Our Mission Possible report4 (December 2018) then showed that it was possible to decarbonise even the “harder-to-abate” heavy industry and heavy- duty transport sectors. And our November 2019 report on China 5 argued that China could become a zero-carbon economy by 2050 with a trivial impact on economic growth. The overall conclusion from these reports is clear. It is undoubtedly technically possible to achieve net- zero GHG emissions by around mid-century, with the developed world reaching this target by 2050 and the developing world by 2060 at the latest, without relying on the permanent and significant use of offsets from afforestation, other forms of land-use change or negative emissions technologies. Technologies and business solutions to do so are either already available or close to being brought to market. The costs of achieving this are very small, especially compared to the large adverse consequences that unmitigated climate change would trigger by 2050 and in subsequent years. The incremental capital investments needed over the next 30 to 40 years to achieve a zero- emissions economy, while huge in absolute dollar terms, are only about 1% to 2% of global GDP per annum. They are affordable, particularly within a macroeconomic context of low or even negative real interest rates in developed economies although financial support for developing economies facing higher risk premiums on capital markets will be required. By 2050, the reduction in conventionally measured living standards in 2050 will be at most 0.5%. This reconfiguration of the global energy system will generate important benefits. The transition to zero emissions will drive innovation and economic growth, and create new jobs. It will improve living standards particularly in developing economies through reduced local air pollution and related health impact; lower energy bills for households, thanks to cheap electricity and more efficient buildings; provide more flexible mobility services; and produce higher-quality, more durable consumer goods. Making Mission Possible Delivering a Net-Zero Economy6 Major ETC reports and working papers Better Energy, Greater Prosperity (2017) outlined four complementary decarbonisation strategies, positioning power decarbonisation and clean electrification as major complementary progress levers. Mission Possible (2018) outlined pathways to reach net-zero emissions from the harder-to-abate sectors in heavy industry (cement, steel, plastics) and heavy-duty transport (trucking, shipping, aviation). China 2050: A Fully Developed Rich Zero-carbon Economy (2019) described the possible evolution of Chinas energy demand sector by sector, analysing energy sources, technologies and policy interventions required to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. A series of four reports on the Indian power system (2019-2020) described how India could rapidly expand electricity supply without building more coal-fired power stations. Sectoral focuses provided detailed decarbonisation analyses on each on the six harder-to-abate sectors after the publication of the Mission Possible report (2019). Our latest focus on building heating (2020) details decarbonisation pathways and costs for building heating, and implications for energy systems. Economic growth in a low-carbon wor
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