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CBRE ResearchCONNECTINGASEANInfrastructure, Integration & Real Estate Growth0814323840CONTENTSThe ASEAN Growth StoryInfrastructure Projects to Support Economic Progress Investment Needs and Gaps Connecting ASEANCities: Alleviating Urban Sprawl, Achieving Smart Growth Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit System (Malaysia)Bangkok Mass Transit Development and Expansion (Thailand) Metro Lines in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam)Countries: Advancing Secondary RegionsCavite Laguna Expressway (Philippines) Phnom Penh Sihanoukville Expressway (Cambodia)Intra-ASEAN: Approaching Economic IntegrationKuala Lumpur Singapore High Speed RailPhnom Penh Ho Chi Minh Tollway Regional ImpactImproving Trade FlowsEast Coast Rail Link (Malaysia) North-South Railway South Line (Philippines)Eastern Economic Corridor (Thailand)Kalibaru Port (Indonesia)Opportunities in Tourism and RetailInfrastructure developments in Quang Ninh Province (Vietnam) Changi Airport Terminal 5 (Singapore)ASEAN in the Future ConclusionConnecting ASEAN: Infrastructure, Integration and Real Estate GrowthForeword As the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) marks the 50th year of its founding in 2017, it is timely to note how the region has matured in terms of increased economic integration and mutual understanding.This continued focus for ASEAN which comprises 10 member states and a total population of 628.9 million - was formalised in 2015 with the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The AEC is built on four pillars: (1) a single market and production base, (2) a highly competitive economic region, (3) a region of equitable economic development, and (4) a region fully integrated into the global economy. The AEC has had its achievements, including a more liberalised market and better mobility of skilled persons between countries. Today, rising physical integration in the form of infrastructure projects lends support to and indeed reflects this goal of economic integration.Individually, countries have been building up their own infrastructure prowess. Many of these are still in progress and offer opportunities for people and companies. Going into the next 50 years, intra-regional infrastructure efforts will bring another dimension to the AEC. Together, these acts connecting ASEAN will lead to the growth of new urban areas. They will contribute to trade flows and the logistics and tourism markets, with subsequent implications for real estate.This report will highlight various key projects planned in and between countries, and discuss ways in which connecting the region will transform industries and the property landscape. CONNECTING ASEAN Infrastructure Integration & Real Estate Growth 20174 5 2017 CBRE, Inc.CBRE RESEARCHHong Kong Infrastructure Outlook When East Meets WestBach Dang Bridge Reduces distance between Hanoi to Ha Long by 50km, between Ha Long to Haiphong by 25km The Halong-Haiphong expressway and Bach Dang Bridge are going to reduce the travel time between Ha Long and Hai Phong to a little over 20 minutes 3Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail Total length of 350km with seven stations in Malaysia and one in Singapore Reduces travel time from 4hours by car to 90mins by railMetro Lines in Hanoi (5 lines) Line 2A (Cat Linh-Ha Dong) started construction in 2011 and was supposed to open in 2016 but was delayed. It has now completed 90% of the work and is set to go into operation in 2018. It was financed through ODA from China Eximbank Line 2 (Nam Thang Long-Tran Hung Dao) was delayed and is set to complete in 2023Metro Lines in Ho Chi Minh (8 lines) Line 1 has a total of 19.7km and is expected to open in 2020 Line 2 has a total of 48km and is being done in 3 phases with phase 1 expected to handover in 2017 Line 5 has a total of 23.4km. The plan is under review and is to be done in 2 phases Other lines are under planning/review11Kalibaru Port Expansion of Indonesias largest port terminal, Tanjung Priok Port Total capacity of 11.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) per year at completion, up from current 7 million TEUsChangi Airport Terminal 5 Increases capacity from 66 million to 135 million passengers per year Shortlisting of architect and consultant in progress Expected to complete in late 2020s48North-South Railway (South Line) Total length of approx. 653km Consists of commuter line, long-haul line and expansion lines connecting Manila, Laguna, Legazpi and Matnog59Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville Expressway Expands the existing two-lane road into a 4-lane, 190km-long, 25m-wide expressway Build-Operate-Transfer contract between state-owned China Road and Bridge Cooperation (CRBC) and Ministry of Public Works and TransportEast Coast Railway Line (ECRL) Approximately 600 km, acting as a land bridge between Port Klang and Kuantan Port Reduces cargo transport time between Port Klang and Shenzhen, China from 165 hours to 30 hours Public-private participation project between IJM (Malaysia) and Beibu GulfPort group (China)20151Klang Valley MRT Total length of 51km (SBK Line) and 52.2km (SSP Line) Phase 1 of SBK Line opened in Dec 2016 and Phase 2 is expectedto open in 2017. SSP Line is under construction Reduces travel time between Kota Damansara to Bukit Bintang Central from circa 77mins to 30mins19Tuas Mega Port Consolidation of existing ports in Tanjong Pagar and Pasir Panjang Additional capacity of 20 million TEUs per annum. Eventually the terminal will handle about 65 million TEUs, or double the amount handled in 2014Patimban Seaport Expected to boost Indonesias automotive exports due to proximity to automotive manufacturers in Karawang Industrial Estate and Bekasi in West Java Capacity of 1.5 million TEUs by 2019 and up to 7.5 million TEUs by 202710Ha Long - Hai Phong Expressway Total length: 20km Reduces the travel distance between Ha Long to Hai Phongfrom 60km to 25km18Cavite-Laguna Expressway Total length of 44.2km From CAVITEX in Kawit, Cavite and end at the SLEX-Mamplasan Interchange in Bian, Laguna Reduces travel time from CAVITEX to SLEX by about 45 minutes Phnom Penh to Ho Chi Minh Tollway 167 km toll road compared to 232 km previously Halves travel time from approximately 6 hours to 2.5-3 hoursBangkok Mass Transit Development & Expansion Additional 271.4 km Doubles the estimated ridership from 1 million per day 2015 to 2.3 million per day in 2025 Orange, Pink, Yellow lines are under construction2Kertajati International Airport Total area of 1,800 ha Capacity of 18 million passengers per year at completionLRT Line 1 Cavite Extension Total length of 11.7km Reduces travel time from Metro Manila to Bacoor, Cavite from two hours to just 40 minutes Capacity of 800,000 passengers dailyRailway Link between Phnom Penh International Airport and Phnom Penh Special Economic Zone (PPSEZ) Construction to start in March 2018 Reduces traffic congestion in the city, facilitates movement of workers to PPSEZ and goods from the airport and PPSEZ to the sea portsSoutheast AsiaMAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS * No indicative timeline for projects with (N/A)CBRE RESEARCH, Q1 2017This report was prepared by CBRE Singapore Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Researcha network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate. CBRE Ltd. 2017 Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. Agency License No.: L3002163I.Changi Airport Terminal 5 late 2020sEastern Economic Corridor (EEC) development After 20277612Mass Rapid Transit (Singapore) New lines: Cross Island Line, Jurong Region Line and Thomson-East Coast Line Extensions to Circle Line, North East Line and Downtown Line By 2030, MRT network will expand to about 360 km Eight in ten households will live within a 10-minute walk of a train station131417Double-track Railway Development Total length: 668 kilometres Comprises of five routes: (1) Nakhon Pathom to Hua Hin, (2) Lop Buri to Pak Nam Pho, (3) Map Kabao to Thanon Chira Junction, (4) Hua Hin to Phrachuap Khiri Khan, (5) Phrachuap Khiri Khan-Chumphon16Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Development A high-tech industry cluster focusing on industries for the future such as robotics Designed to be ASEAN water transport hub, linking the Dawei deep-sea port (Myanmar), Sihanoukville (Cambodia) and Vung Tau port (Vietnam) Expected to complete after 2027 To speed up the progress, Thailand government allows more flexible PPP rules that reduce the time frame for approval from 40 months to 8-10 months24Van Don International Airport Quang Ninhs first and only international airport Capacity of 2 million passengers per year at opening and 5 million passengers after 20202122National Road 4B and Van Tien Bridge National Road 4B extends through Van Don Economic Zone Van Don district 1.5km Van Tien Bridge connects Van Don Economic Zone and Tien Yen District, to improve access from the economic zone to the eastern districts of Quang Ninh and the border to China232030 2033Phnom Penh to Ho Chi Minh Tollway12023 20242021 20222019 2020192021Ha Long - Hai Phong ExpresswayBach Dang BridgeKlang Valley MRT SBK LineSoft opening of Patimban SeaportOpening of part of Thomson-East Coast MRT Line (SG)19201418218LRT Line 1 Cavite ExtensionThailands Double-track Railway DevelopmentLine 3 of of Hanoi Metro1117Bangkok Mass Transit Development and expansionKalibaru Port 16523613Start of construction of Railway Link between Phnom Penh International Airport and PPSEZKertajati International AirportVan Don International AirportNational Road 4B & Van Tien Bridge in Quang NinhLine 2A of Hanoi Metro342223Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville ExpresswayCavite-Laguna ExpresswayTuas Mega PortLine 1 of Ho Chi Minh City Metro2101524East Coast Railway Line (ECRL)Klang Valley MRT SSP LineNorth-South Railway (South Line)7Thomson-East Coast MRT Line (SG)132025 2027Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed RailJurong Region MRT Line (SG)913Cross Island MRT Line (SG)13Patimban Seaport68122017 20183422236VIETNAM210152417781216THAILAND51391MALAYSIASINGAPOREINDONESIAPHILIPPINESCAMBODIANot in timelineHanoiHo Chi MinhBangkokKuala LumpurJakartaManila11CONNECTING ASEAN Infrastructure Integration & Real Estate Growth 2017 CONNECTING ASEAN Infrastructure Integration & Real Estate Growth 20178 9 2017 CBRE, Inc.CBRE RESEARCHThe ASEAN Growth Story1 Groff, Stephen P. “ASEANs Infrastructure Crisis.”Infrastructure Projects to Support Economic Progress ASEAN is rapidly expanding but still below its full potential. Regional GDP rose 4.7% to US$2.55 trillion in 2016, and is expected to grow 4.8% in 2017 making it the sixth largest economy in the world. More mature economies such as Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia are expected to have moderate yearly growth of 2-3%, in contrast to the 4-6% growth expected among the developing member states. Still, most of its member states are below the global average in terms of GDP per capita and the degree of urbanised population.The region has also become increasingly connected with the world, with trade flows rising within ASEAN as well. Total trade hit US$2.27 trillion in 2015, or a compound annual growth rate of 2.1% from 2010 to 2015. While ASEAN has many attributes to propel future growth including a young and expanding population and a burgeoning middle class infrastructure gaps and lack of connectivity within the region could hold it back from making the most of the AEC, or even prevent the regions people from shifting from low-cost to high-value economies1. According to the Asian Development Bank, ASEAN needs about US$2.76 trillion in infrastructure investment between 2016 and 2030 to maintain its growth momentum and eradicate poverty. Countries have been boosting their infrastructure budgets: Vietnam leads Southeast Asia in infrastructure spending of 5.7% of GDP, while the Philippines Government has said it aims to spend 7% of GDP on infrastructure from 2017 to 2022. ASEAN governments have additionally sought to involve the private sector. For example, the Indonesia Government established a Public Private Partnership (PPP) unit within its Ministry of Finance, and has made available certain facilities including financing and guarantee support packages for these projects. At a regional level, the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025 outlined five strategies to improve physical, institutional and people-to-people connectivity: sustainable infrastructure, digital innovation, seamless logistics, regulatory excellence and people mobility.The region is a manufacturing hub in areas including chemicals, commodities, electronics and textiles, which all the more emphasises the need for a solid logistics framework. This said, ASEAN has increasingly been taking on the characteristics of a middle income country, with the services sector accounting for a rising proportion of GDP (see Infographic on page 10).The sector includes value added in wholesale and retail trade (including hotels and restaurants), transport, and government, financial, professional and personal services. For example, Philippines has become a major offshore service provider in information technology and business process outsourcing. CONNECTING ASEAN Infrastructure Integration & Real Estate Growth 2017 CONNECTING ASEAN Infrastructure Integration & Real Estate Growth 201710 11 2017 CBRE, Inc.CBRE RESEARCH0.4% -0.9% 2.4%CAMBODIABRUNEICAGR (2007-2011)CAGR (2012-2016)Est.CAGR (2017-2021)ServicesIndustryAgriculture20152000201520003.9% 5.6% 5.8%LAO PDRINDONESIA201520004.9% 4.1% 4.2%201520006.4% 5.8% 5.2%MALAYSIA2015200020152000201520002015200020152000201520003.2% 4.0% 3.2%PHILIPPINESMYANMAR3.9% 6.3% 5.7%3.3% 5.2% 4.4%THAILANDSINGAPORE4.4% 2.4% 2.5%1.8% 2.0% 2.5%VIETNAM4.7% 4.8% 5.0%GDP GrowthGDP Breakdown (%)GDP GROWTH IN ASEAN Investment Needs and Gaps According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the ASEAN region requires about US$2.76 trillion in infrastructure investment between 2016 and 2030, mostly in power and transport infrastructure, translating to approximately US$ 184 billion of projects annually. Among the developing countries in Southeast Asia, there is a significant gap of US$ 92 billion (Figure 1) between the current level of investment and infrastructure needs. *Industry comprises value added in mining, manufacturing, construction, electricity, water, and gas.Source: World Development Indicators, World BankCONNECTING ASEAN Infrastruc
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