2018年中国经济与政策展望分析报告.pptx

2018年中国经济与政策展望分析报告,2018年5月,What causes the recent market turmoil /近期市场动荡反映哪些信息Chinas business cycle and economic transition /中国经济周期与转型,Will Chinas monetary policy shift to loosening /中国货币政策会转向宽松吗,目录,1,(I) What causes the recent market,turmoil /近期市场动荡反映哪些信息？,Matured stock markets /成熟市场,Emerging markets /新兴市场,3,Recent Market Turmoil /近期市场动荡 Strong stock market performance in 2017: low inflation, gradual monetary policy normalization; resilient growthespecially in Eurozone and China But the wind changes this year: rising labor cost and oil price, changing inflation and monetary tightening expectations;concern about Chinas economic slowdown amid deleveraging effect and trade war risk 2017年股市不断创新高逻辑：低通胀（温和渐进加息）和强复苏（欧元区、中国） 2018年2月以来市场调整：劳工成本和油价上升，通胀前景和加息预期变化；中国去杠杆效应和贸易,战风险,Hong Kong and mainland stock market /香港与内地股票,US-Sino Spread and US$/RMB美中利差与美元/人民币,4,Recent Market Turmoil /近期市场动荡 Chinas stock market also experienced correction with renminbi depreciation recently 近期中国股市和人民币兑美元汇率也经历一轮调整,US inflation expectations /美国通胀预期,Commodity prices /商品价格,5,Inflation and policy tightening expectations /通胀与货币紧缩预期 Inflation expectations increase with rising commodity prices, triggering policy tightening concern in the market 通胀预期和商品价格上升，引发市场对货币政策加快收紧的担忧,Financing condition and growth /融资条件与经济增长,Nominal GDP growth and interest rates /名义GDP增速与利率,6,Interest rates below yet gradually close to the natural level /利率仍低但逐步逼近均衡水平 Current interest rates are still low relative to the economic growth momentum, but they are gradually close to the naturallevels, posting uncertainty for the growth in the medium term 当前利率相对经济增长而言依然偏低，但正逐步升至自然均衡水平,Financing cost /融资成本,US real sector debt ratio/美国实体部门债务率,7,Challenges in the interest rate hike cycle /加息周期带来的挑战 Matteo Iacovietllo and Gaston Navarro (2018) : a monetary policy-induced rise in U.S. rates of 100bps reduces GDP inthe US, advanced economies and emerging economies by 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 percent, respectively after three years 政策冲击带来美元利率上升100个基点，将降低三年后美国、发达国家和新兴市场GDP增速0.7、0.5和0.8个百分点。,PMI,US auto and housing sales /美国汽车与住房销售,8,How long will the recovery cycle last /全球复苏周期还能持续多久 Housing market and some durables with high leverage is more sensitive to interest rate changes, while basicconsumption and social service is much lagged in response 房地产和部分耐用消费对利率变化更为 敏感，而基本消费和社会服务的反应相对滞后,Term spread in policy rate hike cycles /加息周期中期限利差,Term spread and one-year lagged recession probability /期限利差预测1年后衰退概率,9,Yield curve as indicator for business cycle /收益率曲线预警经济周期 US economy may maintain strong recovery in 2018-2019,yet face increasing downside risk from 2020 美国经济有望在2018-2019年保持强劲增长，2020年以后下行风险上升,US policy rate and EM stock market /美国联邦基金利率与新兴市场股票,IIF portfolio flows into Ems /IIF调查新兴市场证券投资流入,10,Spillover of US monetary tightening /美国货币收紧的溢出效应 Trade channel: dependenceon US market Financial channel: sensitivity of financing cost and asset price to US interest rate changes Vulnerability: inflation; current account deficit as % of GDP; foreign debt as % of GDP; forex reserve,Vulnerability in EMs /新兴市场脆弱性Current account as % of GDP /经常项目差额占GDP比,11,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017F,China,中国,9.9,9.1,4.8,3.9,1.8,2.5,1.5,2.3,2.8,1.8,1.3,Philippines 菲律宾,5.4,0.1,5.0,3.6,2.5,2.8,4.2,3.8,2.5,(0.4),(0.8),India,印度,(1.3),(2.2),(2.9),(2.9),(4.2),(4.7),(1.7),(1.3),(1.0),(0.7),(1.8),Indonesia 印度尼西亚 2.2,0.0,1.8,0.7,0.2,(2.7),(3.2),(3.1),(2.0),(1.8),(1.7),KoreaMalaysiaThailandUkraineTurkeyRussia,韩国马来西亚泰国乌克兰土耳其俄罗斯,1.014.95.5(3.5)(5.4)5.2,0.316.60.3(6.8)(5.1)5.8,3.715.17.9(1.4)(1.8)3.8,2.610.13.4(2.2)(5.8)4.1,1.510.92.5(6.3)(9.0)4.7,4.25.2(0.4)(8.2)(5.5)3.3,6.23.5(1.2)(9.0)(6.7)1.5,6.04.43.7(3.4)(4.7)2.8,7.73.08.01.8(3.7)4.9,7.02.411.7(1.4)(3.8)1.9,5.13.010.8(1.9)(5.6)2.2,Czech Republic,捷克,(4.8),(1.8),(2.4),(3.7),(2.1),(1.6),(0.6),0.3,0.1,1.6,0.9,HungaryPoland,匈牙利波兰,(7.1)(6.3),(7.1)(6.7),(0.8)(4.0),0.3(5.4),0.7(5.2),1.8(3.7),3.8(1.3),1.5(2.1),3.5(0.6),6.0(0.3),2.90.3,Venezuela 委内瑞拉,5.8,9.9,0.1,2.4,5.2,0.7,1.2,3.1,(10.7),(3.7),(0.3),Argentina 阿根廷Chile 智利Brazil 巴西Colombia 哥伦比亚,2.14.30.0(2.9),1.5(3.7)(1.8)(2.6),2.21.9(1.6)(2.0),(0.4)1.4(3.4)(3.0),(1.0)(1.6)(2.9)(2.9),(0.4)(3.9)(3.0)(3.1),(2.1)(4.0)(3.0)(3.3),(1.6)(1.6)(4.2)(5.2),(2.7)(2.3)(3.3)(6.4),(2.6)(1.4)(1.3)(4.3),(4.8)(1.5)(0.5)(3.4),Mexico,墨西哥,(0.9),(1.5),(0.8),(0.5),(1.0),(1.5),(2.4),(1.8),(2.5),(2.1),(1.6),South Africa南非,(5.4),(5.5),(2.7),(1.5),(2.2),(5.1),(5.8),(5.1),(4.6),(2.8),(2.5),Lebanon,黎巴嫩,(5.7),(13.6),(18.8),(19.4),(13.5),(21.8),(24.9),(24.5),(16.4),(19.8),(19.8),Saudi Arabia 沙特阿拉伯 22.5,25.5,4.9,12.6,23.6,22.4,18.1,9.8,(8.7),(3.7),2.2,United Arab Emirates,阿联酋,7.5,7.0,2.8,2.5,14.5,21.2,18.3,13.5,4.9,3.8,7.4,EgyptNigeria,埃及尼日利亚,1.710.6,0.58.9,(2.2)4.7,(1.9)4.0,(2.5)3.1,(3.6)4.1,(2.2)3.9,(0.9)0.2,(3.7)(3.1),(5.6)0.7,(7.1)2.8,Emerging,Asia /新兴,亚洲EmergingEurope /,新兴欧,洲,SouthAmerica /南美洲,Africa/Mid,dle East,非洲和,中东,Vulnerability in EMs /新兴市场脆弱性Foreign debt as % of GDP /外债占GDP比,12,Countries 国家,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017E,China,中国,17.0,13.0,13.0,14.0,Philippines菲律宾,44.3,37.6,38.4,36.8,33.7,31.9,28.9,27.3,26.5,24.5,23.3,India,印度,18.9,17.7,19.9,19.0,19.2,22.0,23.2,23.2,22.6,20.8,22.4,Indonesia 印度尼西亚 29.8,27.8,29.9,26.8,25.3,27.5,29.2,32.9,36.1,34.3,34.7,KoreaMalaysia,韩国马来西亚,30.242.2,31.044.9,37.852.8,32.552.8,33.258.9,33.461.9,32.468.4,30.167.6,28.672.3,27.174.3,27.365.3,Thailand 泰国,26.4,25.8,26.8,29.5,28.1,32.9,33.7,34.8,32.6,32.1,33.0,Ukraine,乌克兰,54.0,54.1,85.1,86.3,77.4,76.6,77.5,94.7,130.6,121.8,104.0,TurkeyRussia,土耳其俄罗斯,36.733.1,36.426.8,41.435.3,37.729.8,36.726.3,39.129.0,41.431.8,43.428.8,46.637.8,47.439.5,53.232.9,Czech Republic,捷克,46.2,40.6,51.2,55.6,50.8,61.6,65.6,62.1,67.2,69.8,94.3,HungaryPoland,匈牙利波兰,109.854.0,109.345.9,153.463.6,143.566.5,124.461.4,131.773.7,122.473.2,105.065.5,105.769.5,92.671.7,89.271.8,Venezuela 委内瑞拉,25.4,21.1,25.7,43.2,37.4,34.3,35.6,91.1,105.8,152.8,156.1,Argentina 阿根廷Chile 智利Brazil 巴西Colombia 哥伦比亚,53.032.318.721.5,42.135.617.119.0,44.542.719.923.0,33.939.520.522.6,29.540.019.722.5,26.945.923.221.3,25.449.025.224.2,28.058.429.026.8,26.065.837.037.9,32.766.837.642.9,36.665.532.640.2,Mexico,墨西哥,18.4,17.9,21.1,23.1,23.9,28.8,31.1,32.5,35.7,38.5,37.9,South Africa南非,25.8,26.1,27.9,29.6,28.3,35.8,37.2,41.3,39.1,48.3,49.6,Lebanon,黎巴嫩,73.6,71.3,81.2,75.9,81.6,83.1,84.9,89.4,89.9,94.9,97.7,Saudi Arabia 沙特阿拉伯 11.2,9.0,10.0,7.3,3.7,3.5,3.3,3.9,4.5,8.4,11.5,United Arab Emirates,阿联酋,44.0,38.4,46.7,43.0,33.9,37.4,38.5,43.8,62.2,64.5,68.6,EgyptNigeria,埃及尼日利亚,21.84.6,19.94.0,15.95.4,14.74.2,14.14.3,12.33.9,15.04.1,15.14.4,14.55.9,16.87.7,35.99.8,Emerging,Asia /新兴,亚洲,EmergingEurope /,新兴欧,洲,SouthAmerica /南美洲,Africa/Mid,dle East,非洲和,中东,Financial performance in the past decade /过去十年经济金融表现,13,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017 2018YTD,World GDPYoY(%)USGDPYoY(%)Chinapowergeneration YoY(%)USfederal fund rates(%)US10YT-bond rates(%)US$indexYoY(%),全球GDP美国GDP中国发电量美联邦基金利率美10年国债利率美元指数,增长(%)增长(%)增长(%)(%)(%)涨跌(%),5.71.814.94.34.0(8.4),3.0(0.3)5.50.12.35.8,0.0(2.8)7.00.13.9(4.0),5.42.513.30.13.31.3,4.21.612.00.11.91.6,3.52.24.70.11.8(0.6),3.51.77.60.13.00.6,3.62.63.20.12.212.6,3.52.9(0.2)0.42.39.3,3.21.54.50.62.53.7,3.82.35.71.42.4(9.9),-2.97.71.63.11.5,Brentcrudeoil (US$/barrel),英布伦特原油现货 美元/桶,96.0,36.6,77.7,92.6,106.5,110.0,110.3,55.0,35.7,54.9,66.5,80.3,S&P500indexYoY(%)MSCI EM stockindexYoY(%)MSCI EM currencyindexYoY(%),美标普500指数新兴市场股票新兴市场货币,涨跌(%)涨跌(%)涨跌(%),3.536.512.3,(38.5)(54.5)(8.7),23.574.513.9,12.816.47.9,(0.0)(20.4)(2.6),13.415.15.5,29.6(5.0)(1.9),11.4(4.6)(4.3),(0.7)(17.0)(7.1),9.58.63.5,19.434.311.4,1.9(1.9)(0.7),EM bond implied yield (%),新兴市场债券利率 (%),6.6,10.8,6.6,5.8,6.1,4.3,5.3,5.7,6.0,5.0,4.5,5.6,Heng Sheng indexYoY(%)SH-SZ 300indexYoY(%)US$/RMBYoY(%),恒生指数沪深300指数美元/人民币,涨跌(%)涨跌(%)涨跌(%),39.3161.5(6.4),(48.3)(65.9)(6.6),52.096.70.1,5.3(12.5)(3.5),(20.0)(25.0)(4.5),22.97.6(1.0),2.9(7.6)(2.8),1.351.72.5,(7.2)5.64.7,0.4(11.3)7.0,36.021.8(6.3),4.4(3.1)(2.2),Chinanon-FDI capital flow(US$bn),中国非FDI资本流动 十亿美元,(48),(78),107,96,28,(212),125,(196),(500),(369),82,4,Portfolio fund flow trend /证券投资流向,14,US-Sino trade imbalance /贸易不平衡,Industrial value added in major countries /工业增加值,15,Sino-US trade tensions /中美贸易冲突风险美方的诉求： 1. 解决贸易不平衡：2017年美对华商品贸易逆差3852亿美元，服务贸易顺差45亿美元 2. 对等与公平：（1）市场开放高关税、强制技术转让、歧视性许可限制、外资股比限制；（2）产业政策：中国制造2025、采购国产化规定；（3）国有企业：显性、隐性补贴 3. 知识产权保护; 4. 中国对美国敏感性行业投资：技术获取、国家行为; 5. 捆绑解决朝鲜问题？ 6. 为中期选举获得政治支持？7. 促进产业资本回流，改变全球制造供应链，巩固美国技术战略性优势,Sino-US trade tensions /中美贸易冲突风险,16, 中方的关切：1. 美对华出口管制：集成电路等高新技术产品; 2. 中国企业赴美投资公平待遇; 3. 履行中国加入世贸组织议定书第15 条义务：终止采用“替代国”价格计算中国出口企业倾销幅度的做法; 4. 美方滥用贸易救济; 5. 终止301调查，停止征税; 6. 中兴公司案处理, 此次中美经贸磋商的最大成果是双方达成共识，不打贸易战，并停止互相加征关税；双方同意继续,就此保持高层沟通，积极寻求解决各自关注的经贸问题。, 短期内，冲击全球市场的贸易冲突风险有所下降，市场避险情绪或有所缓解。, 此次磋商仅就扩大中国自美农产品和能源进口达成意向，并未解决双方各自关注的全部经贸问题，单纯依靠上述两类产品贸易也无法解决中美贸易不平衡问题，未来双方仍将需艰难反复的谈判，出现阶段性或局部摩擦的风险仍然存在。, 但市场预期全面贸易战概率较低：经济结构差异和全球产业链分工，决定包括中美在内的全球经济高度融合互补，全面贸易战使双方和其他国家共同受损；中美各自拥有一些战略性筹码，对双方构成制约平衡。, 在初步合作阶段，中国自美国进口的大豆、牛肉、原油和天然气将显著增长，短期内将倾向于略微增加美国通胀而降低中国通胀，美国上述产品在中国市场份额或有所上升，其他国家的市场份额或有所下降。, 2017年，中国大豆和豆油进口额达362亿美元，其中自美国进口154亿美元；中国原油和LNG进口额分,别为1623亿和148亿美元，其中来自美国的占比均不到3。,Sino-US trade tensions /中美贸易冲突风险,17, 但是，单纯依靠农产品和能源贸易难以解决中美贸易不平衡问题，中国对两类产品需求和美国相应,的供应均存在天花板效应，美国产品的相对竞争力也是重要制约因素。, 美国对华飞机、汽车出口具有增长空间，但同样受制于中国需求、美国供应和相比欧洲、日本竞争,力的问题。, 美国集成电路等高新技术产品，一方面对华存在出口管制，将中国视为竞争对手情况下不会放松，,另一方面美国并非全产业链布局，相当一部分供应链分布在日韩等地区。, 中美贸易不平衡反映两国经济结构和全球产业链分工的差异：美国商品贸易逆差而服务贸易顺差，反映美国制造业大量外移和以服务业为主的经济结构，财政赤字和私人低储蓄导致制造业需求超过供给，经常项目呈现逆差；中国制造业贸易顺差而服务贸易逆差，反映工业化体系日趋全面和服务业发展滞后，中国在全球产业链中处于组装合成中心地位，对美贸易顺差事实上是亚洲对美顺差，中国储蓄率较高，制造业供给超过需求，经常项目顺差。, 解决中美贸易不平衡极为复杂，需要改变双方的经济结构和全球产业链分工格局，这在短期内是很,难做到的，美国提出两年内减少对华贸易赤字2000亿美元是无法实现的。,Sino-US trade tensions /中美贸易冲突风险,18, 中美同意加强知识产权保护领域的合作，中国将推进包括专利法在内的相关法律法规修订工作。 中国知识产权保护执法力度将进一步加强，2017年知识产权进口额达到286亿美元，预计未来将迎来快速增长期。加强知识产权保护也将激励国内技术创新，促进技术市场成交，总体利好创新能力强、拥有大量专利的科技龙头企业。, 中美同意为双边投资创造公平竞争的环境，但尚未就如何建立公平竞争营商环境达成具体计划。预计双方就此问题仍将进一步谈判，美国可能会继续要求中国扩大市场开放，调整国内产业政策，加快国有企业等结构化改革；中方也会要求美方更公平地处理中国企业在美投资的公平待遇。, 朝鲜问题受中美关系影响，并影响中美关系短期走向。, 美国国会和其他政治力量已涉足中兴案，增加中美政府经贸磋商的复杂性。, 今年3月以来，全球主要国家货币政策紧缩和贸易战风险带来的不确定性导致全球金融市场出现大,幅波动。, 主要央行逐步推动货币政策正常化的态势已基本确立，但均表示密切关注贸易战风险。欧央行近期态度比预期温和，中国央行面临贸易冲突风险引发的国内外市场波动，则实施降准，放松流动性政策。, 短期内贸易战风险有所下降，全球货币政策演进成为影响金融市场波动的最重要因素。, 外部环境企稳或将进一步提振美联储持续加息的信心，中国也将维持相对稳健的货币政策，进一步,控制国有企业和地方政府债务，强化金融监管。,(II) Chinas business cycle and,economic transition/中国经济周期与,转型,China Business Cycle /中国经济周期,Chinas business cycle /中国经济周期,20, Chinas economic fluctuations are linked to the global business cycle and domestic policy cycle 中国经济波动与全球经济周期和国内政策周期密切相关,Global growth and China exports /全球经济与中国出口,Recovery of China exports /中国出口回升,21,Global recovery cycle and China exports /全球经济周期与中国出口 Global recovery has strengthened since 2H2016, supporting the improvement of Chinas exports 2016年下半年以来全球经济复苏加速，支撑中国出口好转,M2 and housing sales / M2与商品房销售,Monetary policy and housing market cycle /货币政策与房地产周期,22, The monetary stimulus in 2015-2016 contributed booming housing market in 2016-2017, but the policy shift to property,tightening and deleveraging has caused significant slowdown of housing sales in the recent several months, 2015-2016年货币宽松刺激2016-2017年房地产市场火热，但随着新一轮地产调控和去杠杆紧缩政策，,房地产销量已大幅放缓,Property investment related indicators/房地产投资类指标,Property investment/房地产开发投资,23,Property investment /房地产投资 The property development investment has been better than our forecast, yet mainly supported by significant jump ofland purchase cost 房地产投资表现比我们预期好，但主要受土地购置费用大幅上涨支持,FAI in infrastructure sector /基础设施行业投资,Construction sector indicators /建筑业指标,24,Infrastructure investment /基础设施投资 Infrastructure investment growth has sharply decelerated due to stricter control over local government vehiclesdebt 基础设施投资增速大幅回落，因中央政府严格限制地方政府隐性债务,Stimulus cycle and auto sales /刺激周期与汽车销量,Durable retail sales value /耐用品零售额,25,Auto and other durable consumption /汽车与其他耐用消费 Auto sales growth has also slowed after the exit of stimulus policy 在刺激政策退出之后，汽车销量也逐步放缓,Consumer confidence index /消费者信心指数,Births and New pupil enrolment /出生人口与小学招生数,26,Consumption upgrading /消费升级 Consumption upgradingbecomes one important growth engine for China economy in recent two years 消费升级近两年成为中国经济重要的增长引擎,City labor demand to supply ratio /城市劳动力求人倍数,Employment/从业人数,27,Consumption upgrading and economic transition /消费升级与经济转型 Consumption upgradingand demographic structural changes has supported economic transition and stableemployment situation 消费升级与人口结构变化支撑经济转型与就业平稳,Contribution to GDPgrowth/服务业对GDP增长贡献率,28,Consumption upgrading and economic transition /消费升级与经济转型 Consumption especially in service has made increasing contribution to the economic growth 消费尤其是服务消费对经济增长的贡献不断提升,Contribution to GDPGrowth /对GDP增长贡献率,FDI in China /外商直接投资,Chinas ODI /中国对外直接投资,29,Consumption upgrading and economic transition /消费升级与经济转型 China has seen more FDI inflows in the service sector and more ODI outflow in the manufacturing with economictransition 中国FDI更多流向服务业，而制造业ODI大幅上升,PPI,Industrial sales revenue and profit /工业收入与利润,30,Industrial sector performance/工业部门表现 Demand-side recovery and supply-side restructuring supported PPI reflation and industrial profit improvement last year,but dynamic changes in demand and supply should cause gradual slowdown in price and profit this year 需求回升与供给侧调整支撑去年PPI和工业利润大幅增长，但供求面动态变化将导致今年工业价格与利润逐步放缓,Industrial output /工业产量,Industrial capacity utilization rate /工业产能利用率,31,Industrial sector performance/工业部门表现 Industrial output growth saw its peak level and should gradually slowdown going forward 工业产出增速已见顶回落,Manufacturing and private investment /制造业与民间投资,Fund source of FAI /投资资金来源,32,Industrial sector performance/工业部门表现 Manufacturing investment may maintain relatively low growth 制造业投资可能保持相对低速增长,Sales revenue /销售收入,FAI /固定资产投资,33,Industrial sector performance/工业部门表现 There is some divergence in different industries 不同工业行业的表现存在差异,Total profits /利润总额,(III) Will Chinas monetary policy shiftto loosening /中国货币政策会转向宽松,吗,19th Central Committee of Communist Party of China (CCCPC) /十九届中共,中央,The policy making process after political reshuffle /换届后政策决策过程,35,The policy making process after political reshuffle /换届后政策决策过程CCCPC policy-making groups /中央决策小组,