2018年第二季度上海工业市场季度报告.pdf

SHANGHAI INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT Q2 2018 上海工业市场季度报告 2018 年第二季度 RESEARCH 研究报告3 2 RESEARCH SHANGHAI INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT Q2 2018-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 growth rate % RMB/sqm/day Logistics rent (left) Q-o-Q growth rate (right) According to China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, in the first half of 2018, total logistics flow in China grew 6.9% Y-o-Y to RMB131.1 trillion, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.3 percentage point compared to that of Q1 2018. The logistics market grew steadily with total logistics income reaching RMB4.6 trillion, an increase of 9.5% Y-o-Y . The growth rate was 1.3 percentage points higher than that in Q1 2018. Logistics demand for steel, coal and other major commodities did not improve significantly, but that from industries related to livelihood, including E-commerce, courier and express, cold chain, pharmaceutics and automobile as well as high-end logistics, such as integrated logistics and supply chain management, is expected to grow at a fast pace. Demand for high-quality logistics warehouses remained brisk. In sought-after locations, landlords in a better position to determine rentals. In Q2, Shanghais logistics warehouse rents increased by 2.6% Q-o-Q to RMB1.55 per sqm per day, In the second quarter (Q2), the gross industrial output value of large-scale industrial enterprises in Shanghai reached RMB862.665 billion, up 3.2% year on year (Y-o-Y). Gross industrial output value in June alone increased slightly by 0.66% Y-o-Y to RMB288.227 billion. In Q2, the total number of signed foreign direct investment (FDI) contracts in Shanghai totalled 1,193, a decrease of 37.9% Y-o-Y. The total contractual FDI value increased by 30.7% Y-o-Y to US$10.96 billion. Utilised FDI reached US$4.845 billion, an increase of 13.8% Y-o-Y. From January to June, Shanghais industrial investment grew rapidly, reaching RMB46.58 billion with a Y-o-Y increase of 22.9%, the highest growth rate in the past ten years. Manufacturing investment reached RMB34.68 billion, an increase of 22% Y-o-Y. In April, the Shanghai municipal government announced its three-year plan to develop local brands of Shanghai between 2018 and 2020, aiming to build up two world-class industrial clusters, namely automobile and electronic information, as well as to actively foster four world-class industrial clusters, including civil aviation, biomedicine, high-end equipment and green chemicals. On 10 July, the Shanghai municipal government introduced a total of 100 new measures to accelerate the opening up of Shanghais automotive, aircraft and shipping industries as well as innovate and develop Shanghais high- end green import remanufacturing and global maintenance services. From January to June, Shanghai recorded an annual average growth rate of 21.3% in six major manufacturing industries, including electronic information, complete sets of equipment, high-quality steel, automobile, petrochemical and biomedicine. On 28 June 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released an updated version of the 2018 negative list that sets out industries in which foreign investment is limited or prohibited, effective since 28 July. On the new list, foreign ownership limits on automakers would be phased out over a 5-year transition period starting on 17 April 2018. On 11 July, Telsa set up its first overseas Gigafactory with an annual capacity of 500,000 vehicles in Lingang Area, Shanghai. This is the largest foreign-invested manufacturing project in Shanghais history. After ten years development, Shanghai has become one of the largest E-commerce market in the world. Chinas online sales are estimated to account for 59% of the global total by 2020. Consequently, logistics warehouses will become a sought-after asset class due to increasing demand for logistics services and warehouse space. In May and August, Beijing Properties announced that its 65%-owned logistics subsidiary China Logistics Infrastructures (CLI) signed agreements respectively with logistics property platforms ESR and GLP Shanghai to acquire logistics projects in China through joint offshore funds. CLI has a large number of logistics facilities and warehouses in Chinas major cities (including Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai), with a total leaseable area of approximately 809,000 sqm, of which 287,000 sqm was operating and 522,000 sqm was under construction. In the third quarter (Q3), we expect that rents for logistics warehouses will continue to grow steadily with a Q-o-Q increase of 2-3%. The vacancy rate of logistics warehouses is expected to remain at 8-10%. Rents for industrial factories will increase by 2-4% Q-o-Q in the third quarter. LOGISTICS PROPERTIES Source: Knight Frank Research WAREHOUSE RENTS INCREASED STEADILY AND VACANCY RATE CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN Q2 2018 In the first half of 2018, despite the impact of the Sino-US trade friction and changes in market conditions both at home and abroad, Shanghais gross industrial output value continued its upward trend, reaching RMB1,698.92 billion, a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) increase of 5.2%. FIGURE 1 Average rent and Q-o-Q rental growth rate of logistics warehouse properties with the growth rate 2.6 percentage points higher than that in the previous quarter. The shortage in logistics warehouses led to a decrease in the vacancy rate by 1.0 percentage point to 8%. In Q2, A Qin Supply Chain Management (Shanghai) Co Ltd leased approximately 5,000 sqm of warehouse space in Jinshan Industrial Park for an estimated rent ranging from RMB0.8 to RMB1.2 per sqm per day. Sinmag leased 1,000 sqm of warehouse space from Shanghai De Bai Paper Products Co Ltd in Baoshan District, for an estimated rent ranging from RMB1.6 to RMB1.8 per sqm per day.5 4 RESEARCH SHANGHAI INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT Q2 2018 In Q2 2018, as demand outstripped supply, factory rents in Shanghais industrial zones grew at a fast pace. The average rent of single-floor factories reached RMB1.22 per sqm per day, a Q-o-Q increase of 2.0%. The growth rate was 1.4 percentage points slower than that in the previous quarter. In Q2, factory rents in Pudong and Baoshan Districts were the highest, reaching RMB1.45 and RMB1.43 per sqm per day respectively. Songjiang District came in the third place with factory rents averaging approximately RMB1.34 per sqm per day. Factory rents in Fengxian District was relatively low, reaching RMB1.16 per sqm per day. In Q2, Dongfa Electronics Shanghai Intelligent Technology rented a 6,000-sqm factory space in Jinshan Industrial Park for a rent of RMB0.8-1.2 per sqm per day. In Q2, new factories were launched in Pudong and Jiading Districts. In Free Trade No 1 Life Science and Technology Industrial Park in the core area of Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone in Shanghais Free Trade Zone, 30,000 sqm of new factory space was completed. Covering a site area of 51,245.9 sqm, the industrial park has a total gross floor area (GFA) of 142,250.7 sqm. It focuses on IVD-based medical instruments industries. In Liando U Valley Shanghai Jiading Business Park, 37,000 sqm of new factory space was completed. Situated adjacent to Jiading Anting International FACTORIES -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 growth rate % RMB/sqm/day Factory Rent (left) Q-o-Q growth rate (right) Source: Knight Frank Research FIGURE 2 Average rent and Q-o-Q rental growth rate of single-floor factories Automobile City, the Phase One factory covers a site area of 106,672 sqm and a total GFA of 171,544 sqm. Meanwhile, a number of old factories had been upgraded to office buildings after renovation. For example, Zhangjiang E Park in Zhangjiang Science Park, which started formal operation on 27 April, was transformed from a LCD display factory. This project is one of the maga-scale old factory renovation projects in Zhangjiang. With the number of old factory renovation projects, the shortage in high-quality factory space is expected to become more prominent. Demand for factory space from the robotics industry has become robust in Shanghai, the production hub of robots in China. In Q3, the Phase Two factory of KUKA Robot, one of the leading manufacturers of industrial robots in Germany, was completed and open for operation. The factory is expected to have an annual capacity of 25,000 robots a year. In Q2, the primary industrial land market in Shanghai was active, with 24 industrial plots traded, involving a total traded land area of 1,147,879.6 sqm, up 50% and 70% Q-o-Q respectively. The transacted land concentrated in Songjiang, Minhang and Jinshan. In addition, Chongming, Fengxian and Pudong each recorded one industrial land transaction. In terms of both the transaction volume and the transacted site area, Songjiang District led the market with 11 plots sold, covering a total land area of 669,000 sqm, up 92.2% and 22% Q-o-Q respectively, accounting for 46% and 58% of the Shanghai total respectively. On 19 June, Shanghai National New Energy Vehicle Co Ltd acquired two industrial plots, namely Plot 2-2A and Plot No 1 in Songjiang Export Processing Zone B, for RMB149 million and RMB155 million respectively. The site areas of these two industrial plots were 158,721.9 sqm and 165,446.9 sqm respectively. The acquisitions also marked the establishment of the global headquarters for the Shanghai National New Energy Vehicle project, with an investment of RMB20 billion, in the G60 Shanghai Songjiang Science & Technology Innovation Valley. In terms of sales prices, transacted land with unit prices over RMB1 million per mu (1 mu=666.7 sqm) concentrated in Minhang District. As a result, Minhang District recorded the highest average transacted land price in Q2, reaching RMB1.34 million per mu. Pudong District secured the second place with an average unit price of RMB0.81 million per mu. Chongmings land prices were relatively low, reaching RMB0.24 million per mu. In terms of transacted land size, most single land plots were sized between 1 and 5 hectares or larger than 8 hectares in Q2. The former contributed the most, accounting for 58% of the total. Six land plots sized over 8 hectares were sold in Q2, accounting for 25% of the total. SALES AND INVESTMENT LAND MARKET FIGURE 4 Primary industrial land price by district, Q2 2018 Source: Shanghai Planning and Land Resource Bureau, Knight Frank Research FIGURE 3 Transacted area of primary industrial land by district, Q2 2018 Source: Shanghai Planning and Land Resource Bureau, Knight Frank Research On 10 May, Tesla (Shanghai) Co Ltd received the business license from Shanghai Pudong Market Supervision and Administration Bureau with a registered capital of RMB100 million. Tesla (Shanghai) is the first foreign automobile company established in China specialising in R&D technology and product promotion after China announced the phase-out of shareholding limits for foreign investors in Mainlands automobile industry. On 10 July, Tesla signed an investment agreement on producing electric cars with the Administration of Lingang New City and Lingang Group. Tesla will start building Gigafactory 3, a new electric vehicle manufacturing facility in Lingang Area, with a capacity to produce 500,000 electric vehicles per year, the largest foreign-invested manufacturing project in Shanghais history. A factory in China will help drastically cut production costs for Teslas production, including labour, tariffs and transportation. In addition, the Shanghai government signed a cooperative agreement with Tesla. According to the agreement, both parties will jointly promote technology innovation and industry development. With the governments strong support, Tesla Shanghai is expected to establish a R&D Centre integrating electric car research and development, manufacturing as well as sales. 7 研究报告 上海工业市场季度报告 2018年第二季度 6 二季度， 本市规模以上工业企业完成工业 总产值人民币8,626.65亿元， 比去年同期 增长3.2%。其 中 ，6月份规模以上企业完成 工业总产值人民币2,882.27亿元， 比去年 同月微增0.66%。 二季度， 上海签订外商直接投资合同项目 1,193个， 同比下降37.9%。 签订外商直接 投资合同金额同比增长30.7%至109.6亿 美元； 实际到位金额48.45亿美金， 同比增 加13.8%。 1-6月， 上海工业投资保持快速增长， 完成 人民币465.8亿元， 同比增长22.9%，增 幅 创近10年新高。 其中制造业投资完成人民 币346.8亿元， 同比增长22%。 4 月， 上海制定了 全力打响 “上海制造” 品 牌， 加快迈向全球卓越制造基地三年行动 计划(2018-2020年) ， 要全力打造汽车、 电子信息两个世界级产业集群， 积极培育 民用航空、 生物医药、 高端装备、 绿色化工 四个世界级产业集群。 7 月10日， 上海发布了 “上海扩大开放100 条” ， 进一步明确提出要加快实施汽车、 飞 机、 船舶产业对外开放， 创新发展高端绿色 进口再制造和全球维修业务。 1-6月， 上海在电子信息、 成套设备、 精品 钢材、 汽车、 石化、 生物医药六大制造业重 点产业同比增长21.3%。 2018年6 月28日， 国家发改委和商务部联 合发布了2018年版外商投资负面清单， 该 负面清单自2018年7 月28日起生效。 2018 负面清单确认了在自2018年4月17日开始 的5 年过渡期内全面取消汽车产业外资股 比限制的承诺。 7 月11日， 规划年产50万辆纯电动整车的 特斯拉首个海外超级工厂落户上海临港地 区， 并成为上海有史以来最大的外商独资 制造业项目。 经过十年的发展， 中国已经成为全球最大 的电子商务市场之一。 预计到2020年 ，中 国 线上销售额有望占到全球的59%， 随之带 来的仓储物流需求不断攀升， 物流地产炙 手可热。 5 月和8 月， 北京建设 （控股） 有限公司发 布公告， 称该公司名下拥有65%股权的附 属中国物流基础设施分别与物流地产平 台ESR和普洛斯上海订立意向书， 将透过 在境外联合成立的私募基金公司收购中 国物流基础设施名下的若干中国物业。 中 国物流基础设施在中国主要城市 （包括北 京、 天津及上海） 拥有大量物流设施及仓 库， 总可出租面积约80.9万平方米， 其中 28.7万平方米为经营可出租面积， 52.2 万平方米在建。 预计下一季度的物流仓储租金将保持平稳 上升， 环比增幅在2-3%左右， 物流仓储 的空置率将维持在8-10%之间； 工业厂 房的租金将继续上扬， 环比增幅在2-4% 左右。 二季度物流地产租金稳步 提升,空置率持续下降 上半年 ， 尽管受中美贸易摩擦、 国内外市场环境变化等 影响， 上海工业生产销售稳定， 延续上年增长态势， 完 成工业总产值人民币16,989.20亿元 ， 环比增长5.2%。 Sole Agent: High-quality Factory Project in Shanghais Minhang District for Sale PROJECT PARTICULAR TABLE 1 Project summary Location Lianhua South Road, Minhang District, Shanghai Site Area Approx. 6,955 sqm Gross Floor Area (GFA) Approx. 4,016.83 sqm Main building: 3,893.77 sqm Attached building: 123.06 sqm No of Storeys 2 Ceiling Height 11.55m Structure Reinforced concrete No. of Car Parking Lots Approx. 20 Ownership 100% Liability Status No bank mortgage Other Facilities Fire System: Hydrant Electric Power Supply: 800 KVA Lift: unavailable The subject property is conveniently located on Lianhua South Road, Minhang District, Shanghai, 15 minutes driving distance from Xujiahui. It is about 10 km from Shanghai South Railway Station, 2.8 km from Zhuan Qiao Station on Metro Line 5 and 1 km from the proposed Metro Line 15. Nearby expressways include Shanghai-Jinshan Expressway and Shenjiahu Ex