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Supply Chain Planning 4.0 Supercharge your supply chain planning performance February 2018Management summary In a fast-paced and dynamic world, change is the only constant. Manufacturing companies that control their own production must ensure that their supply chain planning (SCP) systems are flexible enough to navigate the complexities that this changing world presents, par- ticularly in the age of digitization. Unfortunately, many firms use outdated supply chain planning practices that reduce their operational efficiency and damage their fi- nancial performance. Manufacturers can prepare for these challenges and even profit from a rapidly chang- ing business environment by implementing a contem- porary and future-ready supply chain planning setup. In a word, SCP 4.0. SCP 4.0 envisions a lean, responsive and digitized setup that fosters data-driven business decisions. It hinges on an agile organization backed by an interconnected sys- tem landscape, providing accurate source-to-shelf visi- bility in real time. This is assisted by advanced analytics tools that aid more accurate forecasting and more effec- tive scenario visualization, ensuring rapid, effective and informed decision-making. In this study, we first present the results of an extensive survey carried out among supply chain and operations professionals. This looked at the readiness of the supply chain planning setup across the globe. What state is it in, and where do the chief pain points lie? Next, in a special feature, we examine some of the latest trends seen in supply chain planning. We identify four key tendencies: the integration of previously separate planning horizons, the appointment by companies of a “collaborative planner“ to oversee the interconnected supply chains of their suppliers and of the company it- self, the application of advanced scenario planning tools, and the use of data analytics to forecast demand better. Based on our experience working with companies, we then present a practical, three-phase approach for su- percharging your supply chain planning performance. The three phases are: analyze your current position, shape a vision of the future (including the target pro- cesses, organizational setup and systems), then imple- ment this new vision. Finally, we look at the investments required to trans- form supply chain planning systems, and the tangible and intangible benefits. Generally, we expect to see a payback period of two to four years, with an internal rate of return of 15 to 25 percent. Intangible benefits include improved employee satisfaction, greater capacity utili- zation, better process control and adherence, and in- creased supply chain agility. Implementing SCP 4.0 is a lengthy process but ultimately a rewarding one. T odays companies need a lean, re- sponsive, digitized supply chain planning setup. Welcome to SCP 4.0. 2 Roland Berger Focus Supply Chain Planning 4.0 Contents Cover photo: mevans/Getty Images Firms know where their future weaknesses lie . 4 Our survey highlights the key pain points. Box feature: The latest trends in supply chain planning . 9 A recipe for success . 10 Our three-phase approach to supercharging supply chain planning. The bottom line . 20 Do the benefits of implementing SCP 4.0 outweigh the costs? Supply Chain Planning 4.0 Roland Berger Focus 3Firms know where their future weaknesses lie Our survey highlights the key pain points. 4 Roland Berger Focus Supply Chain Planning 4.0Simply put, the purpose of supply chain planning is to accurately estimate the needs of customers and ensure that they receive the right product, through the right channel, in the right quantity and at the right time. In an ideal situation, this would result in 100 percent forecast accuracy, zero stock-outs and, of course, a highly effi- cient and responsive supply setup. In an earlier Roland Berger publication The Supply Chain Excellence Study 2015 we identified a number of factors that are challenging supply cycles in todays busi- ness environment. Those factors include globalization, the trend toward customization, political and economic uncertainty, disruptive business models, and innovative technology such as artificial intelligence, augmented re- ality, 3D printing, robotics and the Internet of Things. All of these factors call for agility, responsiveness and adaptability on the part of companies. In addition, in- creasing customer requirements and rapidly shifting tastes are driving complexity, volatility and uncertainty, putting supply chains under severe stress. Our 2017 survey, carried out for the purpose of the pres- ent study, takes a deeper look at the readiness of the supply chain planning setup across the globe. We sur- veyed more than 200 supply chain and operations exec- utives. Over half of their companies were headquartered in Europe, a quarter in North America and the remain- der in the Middle East and Africa. The biggest group consisted of consumer goods and retail companies, with the construction and utilities industries and healthcare and medical sectors also forming significant groups. A slight majority of the companies had revenues in ex- cess of EUR 1 billion in 2016, and over 80 percent had more than 1,000 employees. A Two-thirds of our respondents believed that their compa- nies supply chain strategies were effective, and over half said that they were well executed. Three out of four stated that they met current business requirements. But when we asked them whether those supply chain strategies were suitable for future business requirements, the respon- dents were split fifty-fifty. In other words at least half, by their own admission, will need to adapt their supply chain strategy. It is here that SCP 4.0 can play a key role. B C E To add detail to the picture, we asked respondents about specific elements of their supply chain planning system. Demand planning was the area most commonly identi- fied as requiring the most improvement in terms of per- formance. The demand planning process typically takes place on a local level to ensure proximity to the markets. But this leads to variations, complexity and sub-par de- mand forecasting. What companies really need is a scal- able and adaptable planning philosophy, coupled with a high degree of process and organization maturity. This will ensure consistent application of the standard. “We use multiple plan- ning systems that are not integrated with each oth- er and do not talk to each other. That weighs down the planning process and makes it difficult to adjust plans when necessary“ Supply Chain Planning 4.0 Roland Berger Focus 5ized within their company. But despite this relatively high level of satisfaction, S&OP remains a focus area for the near term. Compared to demand planning and S&OP , production planning is generally more standardized across organi- zations and performs relatively well. This is the result of continuous improvement efforts that have been made A: Methodology. More than 200 global supply chain and operations executives surveyed. Source: Roland Berger Revenues 2016EUR 1 bn58 % Location MEA Industry Consumer goods/retail 50 % Construction and utilities 17% Healthcare and medical 17% Other 16% Sales and operations planning (S&OP) represents the bridge between demand and supply domains. It acts as the fulcrum of a good supply chain process and is im- pacted in large part by the quality of the demand plan- ning. According to our survey, S&OP is less of a problem area than demand planning: Two-thirds of the respon- dents said that it was performing well, and around the same number said that the process was highly standard- 58 % 25 % 17 % North America Europe 6 Roland Berger Focus Supply Chain Planning 4.0 within companies. Nevertheless, with the arrival of In- dustry 4.0, production planning is an area that is also back in focus as a way to boost efficiency. The survey found that companies need to update their current supply chain planning IT systems in line with the significantly changed business environment of today. Most of the companies surveyed last transformed their enterprise resource planning (ERP) some time in the pre- vious decade. By and large, they purchased on-premise solutions from vendors such as SAP , involving major in- vestment and a high degree of customization. While this created an IT setup that was robust enough to meet the needs of the time, it also by design embedded rigidity, which made it difficult to adapt the systems for constant- ly changing business needs. The result has been that, as B: Supply chain performance and positioning snapshot. Share of responses in survey. Source: Roland Berger The supply chain function is treated as a strategic partner for business is represented at senior managemen t le v el Ye s 73% C-3 level 8% C-2 level 50% No 27% C level 25% C-1 level 17% Our supply chain strategy is effective (correctly aligned) meets current business r equir emen ts will meet future business r equir emen ts Ye s 67% Ye s 75% Ye s 50% No 33% No 25% No 50% Supply Chain Planning 4.0 Roland Berger Focus 7Source: Roland Berger Demand planning is S&OP is Production planning is performing well performing well performing well Ye s 44% Ye s 67% Ye s 75% No 56% No 33% No 25% highly standardized Ye s 56% No 44% highly standardized Ye s 69% No 31% highly standardized Ye s 80% No 20% C: Standardization drives supply chain performance. Planning performance vs. degree of process standardization. new technologies have emerged over the years enabled by digital breakthroughs, the level of digitization has re- mained rather low across the board. However, supply chain executives across different in- dustries and geographical locations are well aware of the benefits of digitization. They are particularly con- vinced of its positive impact in areas such as reducing stock-outs (77 percent of respondents agree), reducing the number of short-term planning changes (68 per- cent), reducing lead times (67 percent) and increasing forecasting accuracy (58 percent). Digitization is an area that will see significant investment in the coming years. The survey results, backed up by our experience sup- porting companies engaged in transformation, indicate that a business-as-usual approach to supply chain plan- ning leads to operational inefficiencies. Companies can suffer from poor forecasting accuracy, long lead times, and numerous short-term planning (STP) changes. These in turn reduce productivity and increase over- time and slow-moving and obsolete inventory (SLOB). Outdated practices are responsible for bunching and gaps in the supply chain, too, with large inventories in certain areas and stock-outs in others. Ultimately these operational inefficiencies impair overall financial per- formance and translate to high working capital, higher logistics costs and lower revenues. In the face of these multiple challenges, companies need not just incremental changes but a radical realign- ment toward SCP 4.0. This entails an integrated ap - proach encompassing a transformational vision, lean processes, an agile organization and an interconnected digital system landscape. In the following section, we present a three-phase approach to achieving this vital transformation. 8 Roland Berger Focus Supply Chain Planning 4.0 1. SEAMLESS TIME HORIZONS A major new supply chain planning trend is the merging of time horizons for planning. This is a shift away from the old-fashioned “silo planning“ approach, where com- panies had different planning teams for long-term, mid- term and short-term planning. Integrating the different planning horizons means combining input from vari- ous functions into a single planning solution, encom- passing demand planning, S&OP , finance and schedul- ing. The company can then easily zoom in and out from a more detailed short-term plan to a less detailed lon- ger-term plan. This new approach creates a shared “source of truth“ and establishes a link between long-term strategic plan- ning, mid-term financial planning and day-to-day oper- ational planning. Other benefits include more robust supply chain planning, less variance across stakehold- ers, and greater transparency. Together, this can boost all-round operational and financial performance. 2. COLLABORATIVE PLANNING Collaborate planning involves appointing a “collabora- tive planner“ or “network planner“ an individual with responsibility for overseeing the interconnected supply chains of the companys suppliers and the company it- self. This provides an end-to-end view of the supply chain, making it possible for companies to respond accurately to customer demands and improve capacity utilization. 3. ADVANCED SCENARIO PLANNING T OOLS This trend involves innovative planning processes that use advanced scenario planning capabilities. Within these processes, planners use an “optimizer“ an ad- vanced algorithm that calculates the best way to balance demand and supply, rather than concentrating solely on feasible scenarios. The optimal scenario is based upon up-to-date supply chain data and production capacity constraints, which are fed into the planning system. An optimizer of this type facilitates agile and responsive planning, which in turn improves capacity utilization and minimizes inventories. 4. USE OF DATA ANALYTICS TO FORECAST DEMAND BETTER An increasing number of companies are turning to “de- mand sensing“, a short-term forecasting analytics meth- od that combines historical internal transactional data with external data (for example, from weather and mar- keting reports) to predict demand in the near future. Demand sensing provides a more accurate forecast of baseline demand. It also reduces the number of short- term planning changes and results in lower operational waste and inventories. Ultimately, this increases cus- tomer satisfaction and company performance. The latest trends in supply chain planning When defining a vision for their future supply chain planning, companies need to be constantly aware of the latest developments in the field. We out- line four trends currently shaping the supply chain planning landscape. This can serve as input for the work that companies have before them. Supply Chain Planning 4.0 Roland Berger Focus 9A recipe for success Our three-phase approach to supercharging supply chain planning. 10 Roland Berger Focus Supply Chain Planning 4.0At Roland Berger we have developed a practical three- phase approach to achieving SCP
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