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,Market study,Munich, August 2018,Trends in the truck& trailer market,20180808_Trends in Truck Trailer_fv.pptx2,This study was prepared by Roland Berger GmbH (RB) and is based on publicly available information which has not been independently verified by RB, as well as certain assumptions, general assessments, projections and experience derived from RBs consulting activities, in each case as at the time of the studys preparation. Any assumptions, assessments, projections and experience values contained in this study involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis, which may or may not be correct. Neither RB, nor any of its affiliates, partners, employees or agents provide a guarantee or warranty (express or implied), or accept any liability or other form of responsibility with respect to the authenticity, origin, validity, accuracy, completeness or relevance of any information, assumption, assessment, projection and experience.To the extent this study contains statements or projections which are forward-looking, neither RB nor any of its affiliates, partners, employees or agents provide a guarantee or warranty (express or implied) or accept any liability or other form of responsibility in the event that the actual future developments differ from the statements and projections in this study. Even if changes and events occurring after the publication of this study do impact the validity, accuracy, completeness or relevance of this study, RB does not assume or accept any liability to update, amend or revise this study, but reserves the right to do so at its free discretion.Individual figures (including percentages) appearing in this report may have been rounded according to standard business practice. Figures rounded in this manner may not necessarily add up to the totals contained in a given table. However, actual values, and not the figures rounded according to standard business practice, were used in calculating the percentages indicated in the text.,Disclaimer,Contents,Page,5,A.Megatrends in the commercial vehicle industry,50,D. Roland Berger,33,C. Impact on truck & trailer components (examples),19,B.Truck & trailer market development (spotlight on Europe),Management summary,We expect four main trends, new Logistics, Electrification/alternative drives, Autonomous trucks and Digitalization (LEAD),to shape the CV industry over the next decade yet autonomous vehicles (Level 4/5) barely roadworthy before 2023These four megatrends, as well as a set of region-specific drivers, are expected to lead to a continued positive development of the truck High product quality and delivery reliability are also important factors, however they are all considered an obligatory condition and a standard qualifierAs differentiating factors, besides price competitiveness, technical capabilities and power to innovate are considered essential USPs for market players and expected to further increase in importance, given the underlying market trends,Source: Roland Berger,A.Megatrends in the commercial vehicle industry,We expect four main trends to shape the commercial vehicle industry over the next decade,Source: Roland Berger,CV electrification is driven by regulation and local emission optimizationIn Europe: need for low/zero emission buses and inner- city delivery vehiclesLow TCO benefits limit pulleffect from fleetsOEMs are facing heavy investment demands New,vehicle architectures requiredSuppliers may benefit from increase in value add, e.g. electric axles,Automated trucks address several challenges: hours-of- service, safety, driver shortages and fuel costsFast payback of investment can only be achieved in a few applications with a high share of truck platooning in the early stagesSignificant cost savings are expected only in the long,term with driverless trucksSafety regulation will become a major driver,Changes in the logistics landscape will affect todays customer structure of truck & trailer OEMs Further growth of large fleets expectedMoreover, new players and business models will evolve as the transport industry continues to change towards a digital platform ecosystem,Overall, stronger specialization of players (asset heavy vs. asset light) is expected,The evolution of digital technologies and culture will create new use cases, e.g. in the context of advanced truck & trailer telematicsMoreover, AI-based optimization methods drive down congestion, low utilization and costs,Key trends for the truck and trailer market,Electrification/ alternative drives,New Logistics,AutonomousDigitalization trucks,L,E,AD,Customer structure Status quo and trends (example Western Europe),Customer segments,Market share1),Trend,Segment Owner-driver,Definition Truck driver owns truck Works as subcontractor and/or covers market niche,Affected by market consolidation but covering market niches,Small/mid-sizedfleet operator, Works as subcontractor and/or covers market niche Lower professionalization due to lack ofeconomies of scale,Affected by market consolidation due to competitive disadvantages,Municipalities, Fleets operated by public authorities Transport not a core function,Ongoing privatization partly resulting in decreasing relevance,Special vehicle fleet operator, Focus on specific transport needs High professionalization in their segment,Stable demand in the coming years expected (depending on industry segment),Large fleet operator, Large logistics providers or large corporate fleets Highly professionalized, e.g. some with ownrepair shops,Growth due to cost advan- tages (e.g. due to own repair shops, improved utilization),Fleet size,The logistics landscape changes are expected to affect the current customer structure of truck & trailer OEMs,New Logistics,1,15-25%,2-20,35-40%,up to 100,5-10%,1-5,100,25-35%,Trend:DecreasingStableIncreasingSource: Expert interviews; desk research; Roland Berger,1) Estimate for Western Europe,The transport industry will continue to change towards a digital platform ecosystem,Booking & optimization platforms (BOP), Independent platform for the management of logistics transactions Route and cost optimization capabilities,Carrier, terminal operators, trucking companies (CTO), Asset holders and operators performing logistics tasks High asset and cost efficiency Either specialized or standardized,Supply chain specialists (SCS), Solution provider for complex or industry-specific tasks In-depth understanding of industry-specific supply chains,Service providers (SP)1), New players, hardware providers and existing online players Provision of support services for logistics companies,1) Active in multiple industriesSource: Roland Berger,New players in services (especially in BOP),Surviving players in the logistics industry (endgame 2030+),New Logistics,Profit pool shift awayfrom the business of traditional freight forwarders,Increasing number of large freight carriers & trucking companies vs. supply chain specialists,Stronger specialization of players (asset heavy vs. asset light),Further new logistics business models will emerge Today, still mostly related to city transport,Same-day delivery shutl: Realization of shortest delivery times with attractive pricing on basis of a broad network of carriers and partnerships.Own car as delivery box Volvo Drop-off/Pick-up System: Testing of a system that allows consumers to have their shopping delivered straight to their car.Route optimization Routific: Smart trucks are navigated by GPS and telematics data to ensure optimized route and capacity utilization.,City freight consolidation platform Cargo hopper: Provision of efficiently bundled shipments through electric transportation vehicles.,New logistics business models Examples,Digital logistics agents Sennder: Digital logistics agent and full forwarding service for entire transportation route. Avoiding different sub- contractors reduces transportation costs. InstaFreight follows the same business model.FTL1) freight brokerage for shippers and carriers Transfix: Manufacturers & distributors can connect with a truck driver network shipping long-haul freight across the U.S. Parties are connected by a mobile app.Shared logistics concept Gogovan: Offering of logistics-on-demand,e.g. in Hong Kong Currently 26,000 registered drivers.,New Logistics,Smart Trucks DHL: DHL combines advanced technology with dynamic route planning in its vehicles to increase efficiency in both pickup and delivery.City freight consolidation platform CARGONEXX: Brokerage service for bundling of shipments from different wholesalers/ manufacturers to serve customers within one specific area.senden24 offers spontaneous urban instant delivery. For B2B, B2C and C2C. Service available 24/7. Pickup within 5 min. Delivery within 1 hour. On demand. Any place. Any time.Smartlane is an easy-to-use web-based delivery management software focusing on automated tour planning and optimizing as well as simplified process controlling.1) Full truck loadSource: Company information; Roland Berger,Potential city logistics concepts FreightExchange: Without a specific time schedule, hitchhiking is the most efficient mean of transportation as operators can sell unused capacity to businesses that need to ship goods.RYTLE provides the first holistic and interconnected concept of city logistics. Consists of a unique cargo bike called MOVR, a standardized BOX and a mobile HUB.Quiqup is a London-based on-demand delivery company formed in 2014. Founded originally to let consumers order anything for local same- hour delivery, Quiqup has since expanded its proposition to provide last mile delivery to businesses of any size and sector.,Regulation, for example access restrictions in cities, is expected to drive electrification of trucks and buses,Source: Press; Roland Berger,Expected impact on buses and trucks,A possible diesel ban or ICE ban could significantly influence the transportation sector as well as the public transport,sector as there are a multitude of applications for inner-city driving:,MDT: Delivery trucks for shops; HDT: Construction sector; Bus: Local transportation, In 2019 an Ultra Low Emission Zone(ULEZ) will be established Until October 2021 it will cover the same area as the congestion charge zone Thereafter expansion to an area bounded by North & South Circular Trucks, buses and coaches need to meet Euro VI emission standards Daily charges if restrictions are not met, Since July 2016, all vehicles must reachat least Euro 1 emission standards Between 2017 and 2020, Euro 2, 3 and 4 will be phased out The anti-pollution plan further envisages a ban on old diesel vehicles and a complete ban on diesel cars by 2020 Free parking for electric vehicles,Overview of selected city access restrictions ExamplesLondonParisHamburg, Partial access restrictions have been put in place (April 2018) on specific routes into the city for trucks not meeting Euro VI standards Further and more restrictive access restrictions expected in other German cities until 2019 (e.g. Stuttgart),Future restrictions,Electrification/ alternative drives,Aside from regulation, applicability of BEV and HEV strongly depends on respective use cases,Electrification/ alternative drives,BEV,HEV,Characteristics Travel dist. p.a. Tank volume Fuel type mileage per day Highway use,Segment, 50 km low,100 km low/medium,today202120252030today202120252030,40,000 km 100-300 lDiesel,40,000 km 100-300 lDiesel,Medium duty,Medium duty,20.000 km 100-300 lDiesel50-100 kmlow/medium,100.000 km 500-700 lDiesel100 km high,75,000 km 300-500 lDiesel250 km 2) CNG/LPG Range extender; EVER Semi/Rigid only 3) According to company announcementsSource: Official company information; press research; IHS; Roland Berger,Launch date not announced,E-Fuso eCanterFreightliner eM2,Freightliner eM2,Emoss EMS 10/12 Series,BYD T9,Cummins AEOS,Mercedes-Benz eActros,Freightliner eCascadia,Mercedes-Benz eActros Freightliner eCascadia,E-FORCE E18,Emoss EMS 16/18 Series / EVER Semi/Rigid,Nikola One,DAF CF Electric,Terberg RosRoca eCollect,Tesla Semi,MAN eTruck,MAN eTruck,Renault Trucks D Z.E. / D Wide Z.E.,Volvo FE/FL Electric,Electrification/ alternative drives,eTransport,100-370BEV50-200BEV50-300BEV200BEV160-500BEV200-400BEV350BEV125-2501)BEV + RE2)800-1600FCEV100BEVn.a.BEV800BEV200BEV200-300BEV,eTransport,2030,2025,Advancedtesting phase,2020,Increasing influence on future truck product and service concepts,The emergence of autonomous driving is one of the key disruptive trends and will trigger changes in products and services,Source: SAE, Roland Berger,Stage 1,Driver Assistance,Stage 4High Automation,Stage 2Partial Automation,Stage 3 Conditional Automation,Stage 0,No Automation,Stage 5Full Automation,Situation independentautomated driving Driver has no responsibility during driving,Automation of individual function, driver fully engaged Driver may be feet off (when using ACC) or hands off (when using Lane Keep Assist),Automated in certain conditions, driver not expected to monitor road Driver has noresponsibility during automated mode,Automation of multiple functions, driver fully engaged Driver may be both feet-off and hands off, but eyes must stay on the road,
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