2019中国商务环境调查报告.pdf

2019中国商务环境调查报告2019 CHINA BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY REPORTThe American Chamber of Commerce in the Peoples Republic of ChinaIn partnership with1Chairmans Message . 2主席致辞Executive Summary . 4概述2019 Survey Methodology . 122019 年调查方法Section 1: 2018 Performance . 15Snapshot第一部分：2018 年绩效速览Section 2: Business Outlook and Growth Opportunities . 22第二部分：商业前景和增长机会Growth Outlook and Opportunities . 24增长前景和机会Investment Outlook . 28 投资前景Section 3: Business Climate Challenges . 35第三部分：商业环境挑战Business Challenges . 37 商业挑战Human Resources . 42 人力资源Regulatory Environment . 50监管环境Innovation and IPR . 56 创新和知识产权Section 4: Impact of Bilateral Relations and Tariffs . 65 第四部分：中美关系和关税的影响2CHAIRMANS MESSAGEAmCham China is pleased to release the 21stedition of our annual China Business Climate Survey Report. We are also delighted to have partnered with Deloitte for the execution and analysis of this years survey. As one of the key barometers of the sentiment of the American business community in China, this years edition is especially pertinent given the turbulence weve encountered in the US-China economic relationship over the past year. We hope that the data included in this report will provide both governments with an accurate and nuanced view of the experiences our member companies are having on the ground in China, and thereby help to inform the negotiators regarding the issues of greatest importance to our members. Yes, there are challenges many longstanding, and many past commitments remain unfulfilled. That said, China is still a critically important market for many American companies, and the bilateral economic relationship is too important to not get right. As you will see in the following pages, the recent US-China tensions have led 89% of our members to adopt a pessimistic view regarding the bilateral trade relationship. Rising geopolitical uncertainties have led close to one quarter of our members to delay investments in China. But bright prospects for domestic consumption and a modestly improved investment environment have helped China remain a top investment destination globally, meaning that it remains as important as ever for the two sides to continue their efforts to move the relationship onto a more solid footing. 2018 marked the 40thyear of Chinas Reform and Opening, and though our oldest members enjoy access to a vastly different market than the one they found in 1978 and remain confident that Chinas policy of reform and opening will persist, so do perennial challenges such as regulatory inconsistency and limited market access in some sectors. As we celebrate the 40thanniversary of the normalization of Sino-US relations, we must not forget just how fragile the mutual trust between the two sides can be. To restore that trust and to build stronger bridges, we urge both sides to agree to and implement concrete actions in the weeks and months ahead that will address many of the concerns highlighted in this Report. Likewise, as AmCham China enters its 100thyear, we will continue to strive to foster a healthy commercial relationship between the US and China.Timothy StratfordChairman, AmCham ChinaFebruary 20193主席致辞中国美国商会（以下简称商会）很高兴发布第 21 版中国商务环境调查报告，也很高兴能与德勤合作，进行今年的调查和分析。鉴于中美经贸关系在过去一年间遇到的挑战，作为美国商界在中国运营的重要晴雨表，今年的调查报告尤为切题。我们希望，这份报告所包含的数据能使两国政府更准确、细致地了解会员企业在中国的运营情况，从而帮助双方谈判人员了解商会会员的主要关切。诚然，我们面临诸多挑战一些长期存在，一些过去做出的承诺则尚未兑现。尽管如此，对很多美国企业来说，中国仍是一个至关重要的市场，而双边经贸关系又对其发展尤为重要，因此企业迫切希望中美经贸关系回归正轨。正如您即将在如下报告中所看到的，近几个月的中美贸易摩擦令 89% 的商会会员对双边经贸关系持悲观态度。此外，地缘政治不确定性上升，已促使近四分之一的会员推迟在华投资的计划。但积极的国内消费市场前景，以及逐步改善的营商环境使中国继续成为全球投资的首选目的地，这意味着中美双方仍需努力，进一步夯实两国关系，这一点一如既往的重要。2018 年是中国改革开放 40 周年，尽管我们的早期会员现在所处的市场环境与 1978 年相比有很大不同，同时他们仍对中国坚持改革开放政策抱有信心，但一些诸如部分行业市场准入限制和监管不一致的挑战，依然长期存在。在我们庆祝中美建交 40 周年之际，我们不能忘记的是，双方的相互信任可以变得十分脆弱。为了恢复这种信任，并建立更牢固的关系，我们敦促双方能达成共识，在今后几周和几个月内采取具体的、可量化的措施，处理此报告中重点强调的许多关切。与此同时，在中国美国商会成立 100 周年之际，我们将继续努力，为推动中美经贸关系健康稳定发展贡献力量。中国美国商会主席夏尊恩2019 年 2 月4EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2018 was marked by heightened uncertainty in the global political and economic environment, due in large part to escalating US-China trade tensions and concerns about a slowing China economy. This years China Business Climate Survey Report captures changes in business sentiment during this turbulent period. While member experiences as always vary by sector, the differences this year are particularly notable. Overall, most companies continued to see revenue growth and maintained breakeven or profitable results; however, financial performance was softer than in previous years and varied considerably by sector. Despite the trade tensions, China remains a high priority market for the majority of companies, although many appear to be tempering their investment plans.Members outlook appears to be shifting from cautious optimism to cautious pessimism, as many longstanding concerns such as inconsistent regulations and uneven enforcement persist, even as new challenges namely bilateral US-China tensions and fears that economic deceleration will continue are taking center stage. Furthermore, survey results suggest that we are yet to see the full impact of the tariffs: some companies appear to be maintaining a “wait and see” attitude, and at the same time taking proactive steps to manage their financial performance.In light of these concerns, our members are clear on actions that can be taken by both the Chinese and US governments to improve Chinas business environment and encourage new investments. Substantial improvements in market access, intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and regulatory transparency are all cited by members as critical to their continued success. Additionally, members are asking the US government to advocate even more strongly for a level playing field, pursue investment reciprocity and engage in results-oriented inter-governmental dialogues.Despite a general decline in performance relative to 2017, companies are still experiencing modest growth following the lows of 2015In 2018, the trend of increased revenue growth that companies have reported since 2015 continued. Most companies were profitable, although the share declined slightly (to 69% from 73% in 2017). Another 21% were reportedly only breakeven. Service sector companies reported the greatest increase in revenues, while Resources and Industrial (R&I) industry members experienced a sharp decline in profitability. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were also down across the board, though more than a fifth of respondents said their China EBIT margins are higher than those in the rest of the world.The Technology sector in particular reported higher China EBIT margins compared with global operations. Among respondents reporting lower EBIT margins, “deteriorating industry conditions” was the primary driver of declining profitability for 5概 述2018 年，全球政治和经济环境的不确定性增加，很大程度上是由于中美经贸摩擦升级和对中国经济增长放缓的担忧导致的。今年的商务环境调查报告反映了这一动荡时期企业信心的变化。尽管各个行业会员企业的运营情况一直存在差异，但今年却尤为明显。整体来看，大多数受访企业营收继续增长，保持盈亏平衡或盈利；不过，与前几年相比，其财务表现有所下降，而且各行业之间差别较大。尽管存在贸易争端，中国仍是大多数会员企业优先考虑的市场，但许多企业似乎在调整其在华投资计划。会员企业的态度似乎正从谨慎乐观转向谨慎悲观，这是由许多长期存在的问题导致的，例如法律法规不清晰、执法不一致的现象依然存在，而新的挑战，即中美双边关系紧张和对中国经济减速的担忧，正在成为新的关注焦点。此外，调查结果显示，关税的全面影响尚未显现，许多企业似乎正采取“观望”态度，同时积极采取措施以加强财务管理。鉴于上述担忧，商会会员企业表示，中美两国政府均可采取措施，改善中国的营商环境，鼓励新投资。会员企业认为，在中国市场，进一步放宽市场准入、显著改善知识产权保护和监管透明度，对企业的持续成功至关重要。此外，会员企业要求美国政府更加积极地倡导公平的竞争环境，追求投资对等，并参与以结果为导向的政府间对话。虽然与 2017 年相比，2018 年业绩总体下滑，但企业营收在经历 2015 低谷后仍在适度增长2018 年，企业反馈称 2015 年以来收入增长的趋势仍在继续。大部分企业实现了盈利，尽管这一比例略微下降（从 2017 年的 73% 下降到 69%）。另外 21% 的企业仅实现了收支平衡。服务业企业的收入增幅最大，而工业和资源企业利润急剧下降。尽管超过五分之一的受访者表示其中国的息税前利润率（EBIT）高于世界其他地区，但息税前利润率还是整体下滑。值得注意的是，与全球业务相比，科技行业表示其中国的息税前利润率更高。在息税前利润率较低的受访者中，38% 的工业和资源企业和 44% 的服务业企业将行业环境恶化视为导致其利润下滑的主要因素。而“业务增长放缓”、“成本上升”对整体盈利能力构成了重大挑战，25% 的高科技企业认为来自中国私营企业的竞争制约了其盈利能力。尽管增长和投资预期有所放缓，中国仍是一个重要市场2018 年是否是在华美国企业负增长的转折点 ? 不尽其然。超过 80% 的会员企业预计 2019 年行业将实现正增长。尽管如此，超过一半的受访者预计所在行业的增长率不会超过 5%，这低于许多私营企业以及中国政府对 2019 年 6.3% GDP 增长率的预测。此外，32% 的受访者预计 2019 年投资将放缓，而在去年预估 2018 年投资情况时，持相同观点的受访者比例为 26%。工业和资源以及消费业企业预计将大幅降低投资，服务业以及技术和其他研发密集行业预计将适度减少投资。尽管对经济和投资计划放缓有所担忧，会员企业明确表示中国仍然是所在行业近期全球投资计划的重中之重。尽管面临来自本国企业的激烈竞争、成本上升和盈利压力，重点行业市场稳步的增长前景，以及日益壮大和富裕的中产阶级持续激发乐观情绪和商机。会员企业对中国投资环境的继续改善也保持乐观态度。此外，自商会在 2016 年首次提出该问题至今，会员企业对中国进一步开放市场的信心达到了最高点， 有 50% 的会员认为中国将采取措施进一步向外国企业6R&I (38%) and Services (44%) sector companies. While “slowing business growth” and an “increase in costs” proved significant profitability challenges across the board, 25% of Technology companies cited “competition from privately owned Chinese companies” as hindering profitability. Despite tempered growth and investment expectations, China remains an important market Did 2018 mark a negative turning point for American businesses in China? Not necessarily. More than 80% of our member companies expect positive industry growth in 2019. That said, over half of respondents expect their industry to grow at no more than 5%, below many private estimates and the Chinese governments forecasted GDP growth rate for 2019 of 6.3%. Close to 28% of R&I companies forecast no or negative growth in 2019.Additionally, 32% of respondents expect their investment to slow in 2019, compared with 26% who held that same view one year ago when looking ahead to 2018. R&I and Consumer companies expect to reduce investments considerably, while Services and Technology and other R&D intensive industries expect to scale back their investments more moderately.Despite concerns over the economy and tempered investment plans, members are clear that China remains a top priority for all sectors near-term global investment plans. Even with stronger domestic competition, rising costs and profitability pressures, future prospects for at least moderate market growth in priority sectors and the “rise of an increasingly sizeable and affluent middle class” continue to generate optimism for business opportunities. How does the estimated 2018 revenue of your China operations compare with 2017 results?2018 年贵公司在华业务的经营收入预计与 2017 年相比有何变化？2016 2016 2016 20162017 2017 2017 20172018 2018 2018 2018Down下滑Comparable (2%) 持平 ( 上下浮动 2%)Up增长4349697662565663663332211629352630 236622132418965287 89 96725818811020%40%60%80%100%Technology & other R&D- intensive industries技术和其他研发行业Resources & Industrial工业和资源行业Consumer消费行业Services服务行业7How does China rank in your companys near-term global investment plans?中国在贵公司近期的全球投资计划中的重要性如何？One among many destinations众多投资目的地之一Top-three priority三大投资目的地之一First priority 首要投资目的地Not a high priority不是优先考虑对象开放市场。在工业和资源领域，53% 的企业相信，未来三年，外国投资市场将更加开放，高于 2017 年的40%。消费行业对中国的投资最为重视，技术和其他研发产业在其投资计划中也越来越重视中国。根据对会员企业代表采访的结果，中国仍是一个理想的投资目的地。由于市场准入逐步放宽，以及中国对全球战略的推动，新的机会正在出现。长期营商环境挑战仍然存在市场准入限制、缺乏监管透明度以及紧张的双边关系仍是会员企业面临的重大挑战。在技术和其他研发密集行业，73% 受访企业表示，市场准入限制制约了其业务发展。近一半的会员企业表示，如果中国市场的开放程度与美国市场的开放程度相当，这些企业将考虑增加在华投资。对监管的解读不一致，法律法规不清晰和执法不一致仍然是所有行业企业面临的最大商业挑战（消费行业除外）。仅有多于一半的会员企业认为，在政策执行方面，外资企业和本土企业受到的待遇相同。会员企业还表示，监管透明度和可预知性的改善将鼓励其进一步投资。创新对在华会员企业的成功继续发挥着重要作用，但“知识产权保护力度不够”、“网络安全相关政策限制增加”、以及“符合中国独特标准的要求 “ 阻碍了创新、抑制了投资。事实上，出于对知识产权保护的担忧，三分之一的受访者表示对在华投资有所限制和保留，而在技术和其他研发行业以及工业和资源行业，这一比例上升至近一半。这两个行业的会员企业表示，如果被要求转移更少的技术，并且更好地保护其知识产权，他们将更愿意增加在中国的投资。不过，大多数受访者对中国在知识产权法律制定和执行方式上所做出的努力表示认可，尤其是在商标和品牌保护方面。双边关系紧张：在华企业经营的定时炸弹？会员企业仍将中美关系视为其在华业务取得成功的重要因素。然而，近四分之三的受访者预计两国关系将在2019 年恶化或保持不变，这将对投资计划产生负面影响。当会员企业被问及最大的商业挑战时，“中美关系日益紧张”一项新增的调查选项再次被列为各个行业在华企业面临的重要挑战，仅次于劳动力成本上升，法规不一致、法律法规不清晰和执法不一致。双方加征关税作为这种紧张关系的一个关键组成部分，继续损害着会员企业的利益。与我们在 2018 年 9 月020%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018223434101944271022373192048248204229108Members also express optimism that Chinas investment environment will continue to improve. Furthermore, confidence in Chinas commitment to further open its markets is at the highest level since members were first asked about it in late 2016, with 50% optimistic that steps will be taken to open markets further for foreign companies. In the R&I sector, 53% of companies believe that the market for foreign investment will become more open in the coming three years, up from 40% in 2017. The Consumer sector places the highest priority on China investments, with Technology & other R&D-intensive industries also giving increasing weight to China in their investment plans. According to interviews conducted with member-company representatives, China remains a desirable investment destination, with new opportunities emerging due to gradually increased market access and Chinas role as an enabler for their global strategies.Long-standing business challenges persistMarket access restrictions and a lack of regulatory transparency continue to pose significant challenges for our members. In Technology & other R&D-intensive industries, 73% of surveyed companies said market access restrictions inhibit their operations. Nearly half of members reported they would consider increasing their investments in China if its markets were open to the same extent as they are in the US.“Inconsistent regulatory interpretation and unclear laws and enforcement” remain the top business challenge for companies in all sectors except Consumer. Only slightly more than half of our members believe policies are enforced equally between foreign and domestic companies. Not surprisingly, members also said that improvements in regulatory transparency and predictability would encourage them to invest further. Innovation continues to be important for members success in China, but a range of barriers such as “insufficient protection of IPR”, the “increased restrictiveness of cybersecurity-related policies” and “requirements to comply with unique Chinese standards” inhibit innovation and disincentivize investments. In fact, one-third of respondents report that they limit China investment because of IP protection concerns alone, rising to nearly one-half of companies in the Technology and R&I sectors. Technology and R&I sector companies say they would be more willing to increase investment in China if they were required to transfer less technology and their IP was better protected. However, the majority of respondents acknowledge Chinas efforts to improve the way in which IPR laws are written and enforced, especially with respect to trademark and brand protection. Bilateral tensions: a ticking time bomb for business operations in China?Member companies continue to view the US-China relationship as important for their success in China. However, nearly three-fourths expect bilateral relations to deteriorate or at best stay the same in 2019. When members were asked to rank their top business challenges, “bilateral tensions” a new survey option ranked as a top challenge for b