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Andrew HaskinsExecutive Director | Research | Asia+(852) 2822 0511Andrew.HaskinscolliersStephanie SunDirector | Research | Asia+(65) 6531 8635Stephanie.SuncolliersTerry SuenAssociate Director | Research | Asia+(852) 2822 0579Terry.SuencolliersMari KumagaiSenior Director | Research | Japan+(81) 3 4572 1009mari.kumagaicolliersCOLLIERS RADAR OFFICE (FINANCIAL SECTOR) | ASIA | 21 NOVEMBER 2018TOP LOCATIONS IN ASIA FINANCIAL SECTOR2COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE (FINANCIAL SECTOR) | ASIA | 21 NOVEMBER 2018Colliers “Top Locations in Asia (Finance)” report follows our earlier “Top Locations in Asia (Technology)” report by recommending the best urban locations for financial occupiers. For 16 cities in developed and emerging markets, we examine around 60 criteria relevant to choice of location under three headings, socio-economic factors, property factors and human factors, and assign a score on each metric. Three cities score 55% or above: Hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore. Under socio-economic factors, Hong Kong scores highly on employment considerations (e.g. political stability, ease of doing business, regulatory governance), and wealth factors (e.g. stock market capitalisation, city inward FDI, cross-border banking liabilities). Under property factors, Hong Kong scores poorly on employer costs but comes top in Asia on office accommodation metrics. It comes no.2 in Asia on human factors.The key contributor to Tokyos high score is its wealth and stability as a global financial hub. Its top rank on socio-economic factors is partly offset by the lowest rank on property factors, reflecting high staff costs and rents. However, Tokyo also ranks #3 on human factors as a desirable place to live.Singapore ranks #2 for Tech and #3 for Finance. It comes first on employment criteria, and is a major wealth management hub. Singapore only achieves modest scores on property factors. But it is top in Asia on human factors, e.g. safety, quality of living, environment, and the high-tech city indicator.Fourth-placed Shanghai is a traditional financial centre which scores well on scale and wealth metrics, and ranks second on property factors. Shanghai has two key financial zones (the Bund and Lujiazui), and is benefiting the most from liberalisation of Chinas financial sector. Seoul scores well on measures of scale and wealth, and on human factors. However, we still see it as a “wild card” finance location. Source: Colliers International, based on data inputs from numerous sourcesBased on quantitative and qualitative analysis of socio-economic, property and human factors, Colliers believes the three top locations in Asia for financial occupiers are Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore. Hong Kong scores well on employment criteria and wealth factors, and on office accommodation metrics. It comes no.2 in Asia on human factors. Tokyos second place reflects its wealth and stability as a global financial hub. A poor score on property factors is offset by a #3 rank on human measures. Singapore ranks first in Asia on employment criteria, and is a major wealth management hub. It comes top in Asia on human aspirational factors.Shanghai ranks #4. Shanghai scores well on scale metrics (e.g. GDP, importance of finance to the city) and wealth (e.g. equity market value). It also scores well on property factors, notably quality of office stock, and is benefiting the most from Chinas financial liberalisation.Seoul ranks next. Seoul scores well on measures of scale and wealth, as well as employment considerations. Seouls ranking on property factors is modest, but it scores well on human factors.Summary GDP/capita 139% above national average Finance accounts for 18% of city GDP Equity market value is about USD4.2 trillion #2 in Asia on property factors; high-quality office stock reflects healthy building practiceShanghai is Chinas undoubted financial capital. It scores well on measures of economic scale and wealth. Shanghai ranks no.2 in Asia on property factors, notably on quality of office stock (due to leadership in healthy building practice), and on intra-city connectivity. It has two key financial zones (Lujiazui and the Bund), and is benefiting the most from Chinas financial liberalisation.ShanghaiScore: 54%. Overall position: #5 Represents 22% of total economy of S. Korea 14% of GDP from finance and insurance Good scores on safety, environment and high-tech city indicators.Seoul is #5, just behind Shanghai. Under socio-economic factors, Seoul scores well on measures of scale (due partly to its dominance of the Korean economy)and wealth (e.g. number of listed companies, total savings), as well as employment considerations such as political stability, ease of doing business and city infrastructure. Seouls ranking on property factors is modest. However, it ranks #4 on human factors, with high scores on safety, environment and high-tech city metrics.ALTERNATIVE FINANCE LOCATIONS WILD CARD FINANCE LOCATION6COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE (FINANCIAL SECTOR) | ASIA | 21 NOVEMBER 2018TABLE OF CONTENTSINTRODUCTION TO “TOP LOCATIONS IN ASIA”Colliers “Top Locations in Asia” research aims to identify and recommend the best urban locations in Asia for three major Occupier segments: Technology, Finance and Law. We examine a wide range of considerations relevant to choice of location under three headings: socio-economic factors, property factors and human factors. Altogether we examine 16 large Asian cities in both developed and emerging countries. This report presents the conclusions of our work for the finance sector. Summary and recommendations 2City heat map 3Top, alternative and wild card tech locations 4Introduction 6Hong Kong 7Tokyo 11Singapore 13Scoring methodology 19Summary of overall scores 21Scoring and ranking 22Page Page7COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE (FINANCIAL SECTOR) | ASIA | 21 NOVEMBER 2018Hong KongHong Kong scores 61.0% in our ranking and comes first overall in Asia in Finance. This should not be a great surprise for a city which is widely regarded as one of the leading financial centres in Asia. However, it is worth reminding ourselves why Hong Kong merits its reputation. Socio-economic factorsUnder socio-economic factors, Hong Kong actually scores quite poorly on measures of growth potential or economic output given that it is a small territory with a population of just 7.3 million people. However, Hong Kong ranks second in Asia after Singapore on factors included in the sub-category of employment considerations: political stability, ease of doing business, corporate tax rate, city infrastructure and English language capability, with an especially high position joint top with Seoul on regulatory governance. Hong Kong also ranks second in Asia after Singapore on availability of talent (reflecting high rankings for Hong Kongs universities).Furthermore, Hong Kong scores very highly in the sub-category of wealth-related factors which has a weighting of 25% in our scoring (and is the biggest sub-category within socio-economic factors with a total weighting of 55%). Hong Kong scores 14.4% on wealth-related factors, and so ranks closeto Tokyo on 16.1%.Hong Kongs high score on wealth-related factors reflects the following: High market capitalisation of the equity market third in size in Asia after Tokyo and Shanghai. About 67% of this market capitalisation is attributable to the shares of mainland Chinese companies Hong Kongs position as Asias top city by cross-border banking liabilities, indicating the broad scale and diverse client base of Hong Kongs banks Hong Kongs large net savings position ranked by the net international investment flowing into the city2 Asias highest number of billionaires in residenceConversely, Hong Kong scores below large capital cities like Tokyo, Beijing and Seoul, as well as Shanghai, by total wealth measured at a constant exchange rate. Again, this partly reflects Hong Kongs low population. Property factorsThe overall score of Hong Kong on property factors is 12.1%, on which basis it ranks no.11 in Asia. Hong Kong scores poorly on the sub-category of employer costs, reflecting high average disposable income per head (and therefore elevated average wages) and the worlds highest rents for CBD office space. However, Hong Kong scores much better and in fact comes third in Asia on the sub-category of office accommodation. Among other things, this reflects the following factors: High availability of Grade A office space at 6.8 million sq metres (72.9 million sq feet). This is less than one-half the level of Tokyo, and behind Bangalore and Mumbai, but is three times the level of Hong Kongs great regional rival, Singapore The joint widest gap in Asia in rents between the CBD and cheaper areas,with rents in certain CBD fringe areas over 50% cheaper than in Central. This is important for large banks and investment banks, allowing them to locate front office operations in prestigious locations like Central near key clients, but middle and back office operations in cheaper districts such as Kowloon East and Island East Good scores on the sustainable city index and city innovation index also included in our criteriaHuman factorsHong Kong ranks second in Asia after Singapore on human factors. In particular, scores are high for low personal tax rate, city safety, quality of living, and air pollution and climate. All these points make Hong Kong attractive as a location to work and live in to expatriate staff. Conversely, Hong Kong scores poorly on cost of living, due in large part to very high residential rents._1 Bank of International Settlements for country data, Colliers calculations for city positions.2 A countrys international investment position is a financial statement setting out the value and composition of that countrys external financial assets and liabilities. Socio-economic33.9%Property12.1%Human15.0%61.0%8COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE (FINANCIAL SECTOR) | ASIA | 21 NOVEMBER 2018Fintech gathering pace in Hong KongLooking ahead, one of the chief reasons for optimism about Hong Kongs ability to remain a leading financial centre is the increasing importance of “fintech” (financial technology). This is a point which we stressed in our recent report “Top Locations in Asia (Technology)” (19 September 2018). Hong Kongs emergence as a fintech centre is facilitated by the territorys position as a gateway to China for large financial groups, and specifically by proximity to Shenzhen, which is Chinas technology capital.According to KPMGs report “The Pulse of Fintech 2018” (31 July 2018), Asias fintech investment surged from USD5.4 billion in 2017 to USD16.8 billion in H1 2018 (although this figure was swollen by around USD14 billion of fund raising by the Chinese online payments group Ant Financial). In Hong Kong, in addition to an increasing number of fintech companies which can afford office rents in the CBD and fringe CBDs, international banks are hiring more technology-based talent, which should increase office demand across all submarkets. Many large banks that already have offices in the CBD are using decentralised locations for their innovation and technology divisions, while others are using flexible workspace; notably, HSBC established its innovative technology teams in WeWork centres in 2016. Recently, it has been reported that, as part of its global technology budget of USD10.8 billion for 2018, JP Morgan plans to expand its Hong Kong-based tech workforce by 20% to prepare for the launch of its new Chinese securities venture. The bank has pre-leased about 225,000 sq feet (20,905 sq metres) of office space at The Quayside in Kowloon Bay, a building scheduled for completion in 2019. As part of the move, JP Morgan plans to hire “top-tier tech talent” from Hong Kong and China with skills in digital, AI, mobile, big data and machine learning3.Headwinds from falling stock market and rising interest ratesHowever, Hong Kong also faces challenges as a financial centre. On a macro-economic level, after a strong H1 2018, growth looks set to weaken from now on. Recent resilience in exports is likely to start to fade as demand from China cools, especially if the US-China trade war escalates further. At the same time, domestic demand looks set to soften, held back by asset market turbulence. Consequently, Oxford Economics projects real GDP growth of 3.6% for Hong Kong for 2018, but then a sharp slowdown to 2.4% in 2019.Regarding asset markets, equities have fallen into bear market territory with the Hang Seng index down by more than 20% from the start of 2018 and signs of moderating demand for residential if not yet commercial property. There is a well-known historic relationship in Hong Kong between the level of the Hang Seng index and average Grade A office rents in Central (see Figure 1 overleaf). While the two measures have diverged since 2015, we doubt that rents can continue to rise significantly if the stock market falls further, considering that financial occupiers (including investment banks and securities companies with large trading operations) account for 54% of Grade A office space in Hong Kongs CBD by our estimate.Due to the Hong Kong dollars peg to the US dollar, Hong Kong interest rates are effectively tied to US interest rates. Consequently, interest rates in Hong Kong set to rise faster than in most other Asian markets over the next three years. As shown in Figure 2 overleaf, real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) interest rates have been negative in Hong Kong eve since the Global Financial Crisis, but will almost certainly turn positive again in 2019.Rising interest rates, with a proper term premium, are usually regarded as positive for commercial banks, since higher rates increase core lending margins, i.e. the spread between the rates that banks charge on loans and the rates that they pay on deposits. However, rising interest rates may also be negative for investment banks, since reduced risk appetite tends to depress equity and bond markets and trading volumes. Rising interest rates can also be a negative signal through the higher risk premium demanded by financial market participants in general._3 SCMP (see scmp/business/companies/article/2151333/jp-morgan-expand-hong-kong-based-tech-hires-support-landmark), 19 June 2018; other reports9COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE (FINANCIAL SECTOR) | ASIA | 21 NOVEMBER 2018-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.02018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4China Hong Kong Singapore Japan South Korea India02040608010012014016005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18Net EffectiveRent (HKD/sqft/month, NFA)HSIHang Seng Index Hong Kong Grade A office rent in Central
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