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Industry AgendaElectric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and MobilityJanuary 2018In collaboration with Bain & CompanyWorld Economic Forum 2018 All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced orTransmitted in any form or by any means, including Photocopying and recording, or by any information Storage and retrieval system.REF 020218 - case 402323Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and MobilityContents4 Preface5 Overview7 The vision12 The value of the transformation16 Recommendations for action22 Conclusions23 Appendix27 References29 Acknowledgements4 Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and MobilityPrefaceBy 2050, about 70% of the worlds population will live, commute and work in urban areas. Between now and then, cities and suburbs will undergo significant transformations to create sustainable living conditions for their residents. Mobility and energy are the twin pillars of these transformations, and both will require radical adaptation to meet demographic and economic growth without increasing congestion and pollution. Cities will require mobility and energy solutions that are sustainable, affordable, secure and inclusive, and integrated with customer-centric infrastructure and services. Thus, the convergence of energy and mobility is critical. These are exciting times in which new technologies allow people to rethink the way they live in a more sustainable and efficient manner. Smart mobility. Smart water. Smart grid. Smart integration. These are the foundations of tomorrows cities, which are being realized today.Following the World Economic Forums previous work on the future of electricity and the digital transformation of industries, this report examines the major trends affecting the transformation of energy and mobility systems, with a special focus on cities: electrification, decentralization and digitalization of the energy system, along with the shift towards shared mobility and autonomous driving. The recommendations provided aim to accelerate these transformations, in ways that will magnify the economic and societal benefits they could bring. While suggesting a comprehensive approach and broadly applicable principles, this report also shows how to tailor each electrification strategy to specific markets: energy, mobility and urban infrastructure patterns will affect how the countries and cities decide their own priorities. Furthermore, the report also showcases examples of transformational public and private initiatives to drive greater collaboration. The vision and framework proposed in this report will support policy-makers and urban planners, as well as private investors and businesses to undertake the critical actions required to accelerate electric mobility where energy, mobility and urban transformations converge.Cheryl MartinHead of IndustriesMember of the Managing BoardWorld Economic ForumFrancesco StaraceChief Executive Officer and General ManagerEnelJean-Pascal TricoireChairman and Chief Executive OfficerSchneider Electric5Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and MobilityMobility is going to change rapidly in the coming years as elec-tric vehicles (EV) proliferate, ride sharing continues to grow, and eventually autonomous vehicles (AV) enter urban fleets. This is especially true in cities where new forms of mobility are concen-trated and where investment in supporting infrastructure is need-ed to accommodate this growth. These changes coincide with the evolution towards cleaner, more decentralized and digitalized energy systems and services, and increasing electrification. Today, public- and private-sector stakeholders deploy policy, infrastructure and business models based largely on current patterns of mobility and vehicle ownership. The uptake of privately owned EVs is encouraged, while business models for charging stations vary, as they are deployed or operated by a range of players public agencies, car manufacturers, energy companies and pure players. Limited interoperability and digitalization of infrastructure can make broad customer engagement challenging. Outside the energy sector, awareness of energy-related issues is low. Mobility integration with electricity system and grid edge technologies is emerging. As a consequence, EV charging could create local constraints and stability problems on power networks and reduce the environmental benefits of electrification. There is an opportunity to design a different future, and reap both environmental and economic benefits with a call to action around the following three principles to be acted upon:1. Take a multistakeholder and market-specific approach: First and foremost, a market-specific approach that considers all relevant stakeholders should be applied to new mobility patterns with smarter and cleaner energy systems (see Figure 1). Energy, mobility and infrastructure enterprises, along with policy-makers, regulators and urban planners, can collectively define a new paradigm for cities. The paradigm would go beyond todays industry divisions in search of complementary municipal, regional and national policies. The investment and infrastructure to support electric mobility will vary significantly from one place to another, thus any approach needs to be market specific. Local stakeholders should plan for electrification while taking into account local characteristics, especially: urban infrastructure and design, the energy system and the culture and patterns of mobility.2. Prioritize high-use vehicles. The focus should be on electrifying fleets, taxis, mobility-as-a-service vehicles and public transport, which will have a greater impact as these represent a higher volume of miles travelled. Although personal-use vehicles will likely remain a significant portion of the vehicle stock for many years, they are on the road less than 5% of the time, representing a low volume of overall miles driven. 3. Deploy critical charging infrastructure today while anticipating the transformation of mobility. To keep pace with growing demand and to address range-anxiety issues, charging infrastructure is needed, especially along highways, at destination points, and close to public transport hubs. To minimize the risk of stranded investments, future mobility and vehicle ownership patterns should be considered, as some current charging locations (i.e. in apartment buildings, at parking meters along city streets) may not be needed in the future. The infrastructure should be deployed in combination with grid edge technologies such as decentralized generation, storage, microgrids and smart buildings and integrated into smart grids, to fully exploit the flexibility of EVs while enabling the stability of the energy system. Digitalization would help simplify and enhance the customer experience, support efficient infrastructure deployment and management as well as enable new services associated with electric, shared and autonomous mobility. Charging stations can become hubs for smart-city services.OverviewFigure 1: The convergence of mobility and energy futuresFigure 1: The convergence of mobility and energy futures Makes customers activeparts of the system,though requires signicant coordinationAllows for open,real-time, automated communicationand operationof the energy systemCritical to long-term decarbonization goals and will be a relevant decentralized energy resourceSystem takesover driving completely for all street types, speed zones and environment conditionsIncreases the overall use of the mobility assets based on customers needsThe future of mobility will be autonomous, shared and electric The future of energy will be electric, decentralized and digital 6 Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and MobilityThese recommendations (see Figure 2) will create value in three dimensions: Environment. As the share of miles driven by EVs increases, urban mobility emissions will decrease progressively; electrification combined with a clean energy mix and optimized charging patterns will further reduce emissions, improving air quality and benefiting human health, with a much-decreased ecological footprint. Energy. EVs are a relevant decentralized energy resource (DER), providing a new controllable electricity demand, storage capacity and electricity supply when fully integrated with grid edge technologies and smart grids. Smart charging will create more flexibility in the energy system, improving stability and optimizing peak-capacity investments. Fleets of electric and, later, AVs can amplify the potential of smart charging, through the aggregation of multiple vehicles and higher control of load profiles. This will also open the door to broader energy efficiency services. Mobility. EVs will become more affordable than vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) as the cost of batteries declines. Smart-charging services will reduce charging costs (for example, by charging when energy prices are low, if dynamic pricing is implemented), and new revenue streams for fleet operators, who will be able to provide ancillary services to energy markets. In the future, AVs will also cost significantly less per mile than personal-use ICEs, by as much as 40% (see Figure 13) and could also reduce congestion and traffic incidents.This report provides recommendations based on case studies and interviews with a wide range of leaders and experts from energy and mobility industries, civil society, academia, city councils and national governments. Working together, public and private stakeholders can adapt these principles to optimally converge mobility and energy, and to enable cities to better meet climate goals, support energy efficiency, foster innovation of services and infrastructure, and generate economic growth, ultimately providing great benefits to citizens. Figure 2: Three principles for action on electric mobilityFigure 2: Three principles for action on energy and mobilityTake multistakeholder & market-specific approach 1Deploy critical charging infrastructure today while anticipating mobility transformation 3Prioritize high-use vehicles 2 Focus on electrifying public and commercial eets, including mobility-as-a-service Complete electrication of public transport system Enable the integration of autonomous vehicles (AV) Focus on reducing range anxietyand promoting interoperability Prioritize energy-efcient charging hubs with grid edge technologies and smart charging Develop digital end-to-end customer experience to enhance access to charging servicesNote to Design Team: The third principle should not be on more than 3 lines. 7Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and MobilityUrban mobility and infrastructure are evolving to incorporate more EVs. Today, however, public- and private-sector stakeholders develop policies, deploy charging infrastructure and follow business models based on current mobility patterns and vehicle-ownership norms, with limited consideration of energy implications. There is no common or clear vision for how the design and deployment of the required infrastructure would be affected by changes in mobility patterns, vehicle technology or energy systems.This report aims to identify a shared vision for the future an evolution of the current trajectory of EV proliferation for cleaner mobility to a designed future, the transformation. This transformation would accelerate the ability of cities to meet climate goals, optimize grid infrastructure investments, enable innovation of services and infrastructure, dramatically increase productivity and generate economic growth, ultimately providing great benefits to citizens.The differences between the current EV proliferation phase and a more extensive transformation to be designed, in terms of policy, infrastructure development and mobility culture and patterns, are described within this section (for a summary, see Figure 3). a. Policy approachStatus quo proliferationThe electrification of transport is the main pillar of national and local policies for cleaner mobility, through the substitution of ICEs with EVs. Many current regulations encourage the proliferation of privately owned EVs by offering financial and/or non-financial incentives, including tax rebates, access to priority lanes, free parking or free electricity, and penalizing vehicles with emissions (see Figure 4). These incentives are motivated by the potential of zero-emission vehicles to significantly reduce greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitrous dioxide (NO2). In fact, electrifying light-duty vehicles (LDV), even with the current energy mix, would decrease CO2emissions by 60% per mile driven (see Figure 10). Climate goalsFollowing the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) agreement in Paris, many countries and cities have announced goals to eventually ban internal combustion engines. The European Commission also released the Clean Mobility Package in November 2017 to set new CO2emission standards and guidance for cleaner mobility.Norway, the Netherlands, France, Germany, the UK, China and India have all made announcements indicating their intentions to eventually ban the production and sale of cars that run on fossil fuels. Cities including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, Paris and Stuttgart have announced plans to ban diesel cars by 2030 or earlier.Car manufacturers followed these regulatory commitments with their own pledges to move away from the production of ICEs. BMW plans to mass-produce EVs by 2020, offering 12 models by 2025. Renault plans to produce 20 electrified models by 2022, including 8 pure EVs. Volkswagen will invest up to $84 billion in battery and EV technology to electrify all 300 of its models by 2030. Volvo has committed to fit every car it produces by 2019 with electric or hybrid engines. China set a timeline of peaking its CO2emissions around 2030, and has indicated it plans to ban the production and sale of fossil fuel cars in the near future. Increased electrification of mobility coupled with more renewables in the energy generation mix have become a crucial part of the solution. The opportunity transformationA more extensive transformation will require policy and regulatory reforms to support the electrification of transport that goes beyond decarbonization goals. Policy and regulatory objectives can aim to achieve smarter cities, aggregated efficiency and productivity, and broader economic development. These will rely on the convergence of energy, mobility and infrastructural planning objectives and complementary municipal, regional and national policies. The visionFigure 3: Proliferation and transformationProliferation ongoing globally Transformation to be designedDriven by national and local objectives for cleaner mobility,through substi
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