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This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bains prior written consent Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor 2015 Spring Update Claudia DArpizio Milan, May 21 st 2015 2 3% Global luxury hit 224B in 2014 despite slowdown in real terms, over 3T cumulated retail sales in the last 20 years 10% 3% GLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET TREND (1994-2014E|B) Sept 11 SARS Subprime Middle East slowdown in H2 driven by Russian spending decline and oil price drop impacting locals trend Record growth in real terms; VAT increase softening local spending in H2 Weakening euro driving H2 better performance thanks to touristic flows Mixed performance: stagnation in Greater China offset by brisk growth in South Korea Sound local and touristic consumption; currency effect offsetting H2 slight slowdown 5 US and emerging markets the main growth drivers; cosmetics (both skincare and make-up) outperforming fragrances Accessories Hard Luxury Apparel Beauty Other +2% +4% +2% +2% +3% +0% WHAT Accessories confirming market leadership in absolute and relative terms YoY 14E vs. 13 GLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET BY CATEGORY (13-14E|B) Watches sales rather stable at global level, with H2 Euro devaluation vs. Swiss Franc partially offsetting worsening situation in Asia; Jewelry outperforming on solid fundamentals Shoes confirmed top performing category; ongoing polarization in leather goods; mens segment outperforming across the board High dynamism of womenswear while mixed trends in menswear, hit by negative impact of Mainland China 6 WORLDWIDE PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET TREND CONSTANT AND CURRENT EXCHANGE RATES (2014E-Q1 2015F) (USD stable) (JPY devaluation) (GBP appreciation) (CHF appreciation) (CNY appreciation) USD/EUR JPY/EUR GBP/EUR CHF/EUR CNY/EUR Low single digit growth in 2015Q1 in real terms then boosted by weak Euro (USD appreciation) (JPY appreciation) (GBP appreciation) (CHF appreciation) (CNY appreciation) + + + + + + + + 7 Currency fluctuations are becoming a real challenge for the industry, impacting on price differentials and tourist flows *Note: price differential based on a panel of carry over leather goods items by European brands AVERAGE PRICE VS. * (%|MID 2014) AVERAGE PRICE VS. * (%|MID 2015) UK Russia USA Brazil China Hong Kong S.Korea Japan UAE Brands emerging pricing strategies mainly targeting stability of price differentials, with some testing a real price harmonization on selected items Currency fluctuations (e.g. Euro devaluation) Standard and exceptional price adjustments implemented by luxury brands 8 EUROPE LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B) Western Europe strongly supported by Asian tourism also helped by currency fluctuations; Eastern EU still suffering K +3-5% +2% +4% +2% +2% YoY % Weak euro supporting inbound tourism in the Euro zone (especially from China and US) - Italy starting to recover: good start of the year sustained by tourists and timid rebound of multibrand channel; Milan #1 shopping destination with ad-hoc initiatives set up for the EXPO 2015 to provide extra impulse - Spain rebound above expectations - France positive trend pulled by Paris Soft Q1 in UK but Chinese and Middle Eastern supporting the market Sound Northern Europe despite less relevant contribution of tourists - Germans most solid local consumers Switzerland negative due to CHF appreciation redirecting touristic and local flows to Italy and France Eastern Europe still suffering apart from few exceptions, with Russia still on a negative trend in 2015 Weak euro attracting touristic spending in Europe Note: 2015F exchange rate variation refers to the average Jan 2015 - May 2015 YTD figures 9 AMERICAS LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B) US below expectations in 2015 losing the support of increasingly relevant touristic shopping Decrease of touristic shopping: strong dollar partially offset by selected price adjustments - Chinese decrease impacting US west coast and Hawaii, Las Vegas, and NYC, while Latin American e Russian impacting Miami Robust yet not booming local consumption - Exceptional cold impacting Q1 - Slow rebound of upper middle class - Department stores pushing off-price sales and channels - Overall positive trend of mens categories E-com outperforming across formats - Volatile topline ever more exposed to touristic flows with steady increasing rental costs in top locations questioning brick uneven performance across Latin America, also impacted by oil price decline +1-3% +5% +9% +4% +4% YoY % Stronger USD vs. EUR in 2015; ongoing devaluation of Real decreasing Brazilian purchasing power K Note: 2015F exchange rate variation refers to the average Jan 2015 - May 2015 YTD figures 10 JAPAN LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B) Tourismization of Japan completely changing market dynamics and requiring new initiatives to serve consumers K Fastest growing market in real terms Becoming #1 touristic destination for Chinese - +83% Chinese inbound tourists in 2014 and +160% YoY in Feb.2015 - Up to 40% price differential vs. Mainland China - Touristic purchase reaching up to 20% share in first months of 2015 vs. 5-10% in 2014 - Tokyo still capturing most of this new impulse despite new visas regulations attempting to push other entry points in the country - Growing need for Chinese speaking personnel not easily drawn by the local talent pool Overall economy impacted by 2014 VAT increase reducing consumer confidence and local consumption - Decreasing GDP in Q2 and Q3 2014, bouncing back in Q4, with 2% growth expected in 2015 - Sentiment remains soft despite the delay of the second VAT increase +5-7% -10% +14% +1% +9% YoY % Yen devaluation attracting both Chinese and Korean consumers Note: 2015F exchange rate variation refers to the average Jan 2015 - May 2015 YTD figures 11 ASIA PACIFIC LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B) Chinese flows guiding Asian markets performance, supporting Korea and SEA at the expenses of Greater China K Greater China South Korea South East Asia +5% +2% -1/ +1% +8% +3% 2015 transition year for Mainland China with still lackluster performance Hong Kong and Macau worst performers losing Mainland Chinese support (demonstrations, new HK visa rules; Macau gambling income reduction); positive long- term expectations on Macau thanks to new developments and connections to China Taiwan gaining traction on Chinese Very dynamic South Korea thanks to Chinese flows redirected from HK - Booming duty-free (70% share of Chinese) - Particularly good performance of Jeju, Bousan, Gangwonv province and Seoul Singapore stealing VIP gamblers from Macau Luxury real estate investments in Indonesia (Jakarta and Surabaya) Chinese providing dynamism to Thailand + + - 12 MAINLAND CHINA LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B) CNY Chinas moment of truth: all key market actors struggling to revamp the market Uneven brands and categories performance - Still negative impact of clampdown on lavish spending - Increasing overseas purchase driven by price differentials and currency fluctuations Key actors struggling with new approaches - Government attempting to foster domestic consumption: fight grey market through visa restriction to HK, discussions about tariff cuts and new anti-daigou regulations - Brands testing price differentials reduction; new talent programs to raise service level and increasingly looking at HENRYs - Real estate developers turning malls into entertainment spots and introducing new travel retail formats to intercept middle class Consumers looking for bargain 360 - Outperformance of accessible brands, outlet centers, duty-free areas, off-price e-commerce +3% +4% 0% -1% YoY % Stronger CYN vs. EUR, JPY and KRW increasing Chinese purchasing power in Europe, Japan and Korea -2/ -4% Note: 2015F exchange rate variation refers to the average Jan 2015 - May 2015 YTD figures 13 K Mainland China spending Foreign spending While Chinese consumer spending is relentlessly growing always more skewed towards foreign (cheaper) shopping CHINESE SPENDING EVOLUTION (2000-2015F |B) K Growing relevance of domestic market driven by increasing market penetration by global luxury brands Higher awareness of price differential and increased consumers mobility driving growth of foreign spending and stagnant local trend Global personal luxury goods market evolution by nationality (2000-2015F | B) Global Chinese spending evolution by shopping destination (2000-2015F | B) Chinese fastest growing nationality for personal luxury goods spending, surpassing 30% of total market in 2015F Chinese spending 14 Chinese tourists currently redirecting spending within Asia and enjoying weak Euro, thus compromising US market trend Flows and spending redirecting within APAC -Decline in HK for new visa regulations and in Macau for lavish spending control -Booming South Korea and Japan, sound flows in Taiwan, Australia and SEA (especially Thailand) 15 2015FY: still positive outlook as constant exchange rates expected to be highly inflated by currency effect Europe Americas Japan Asia Pacific ex Mainland China Mainland China ROW +3/+5% +1/+3% +5/+7% -1/+1% -2/-4% +1/+3% +2-4% K 2015F EXPECTED GROWTH RATES BY REGION 16 GLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY MARKET EVOLUTION (2000-2015F|B) Limited price awareness and consciousness - Limited role of online - Multiple currencies in Europe - 10-15% of off-price market Market more balanced between tourist and local consumption - 35% of sales made to tourists - Mostly Japanese and US touristic shopping going to Europe 140M luxury consumers globally - Chinese consumers accounting for less than 2% of total spending Significant price awareness and growing price consciousness - 60%+ brands with website with full price transparency across markets influencing vast majority of sales - 30%+ of off-price market Huge and hectic role of touristic spending across all geographies - 50% of sales made to tourists - Mostly Chinese touristic shopping - Diverse and volatile flows routes 350M+ luxury consumers globally - Chinese consumers accounting for 30%+ of total spending Current currencies dynamics put the spotlight on the structural changes of luxury industry in last 15 years K 17 raising the urgency for luxury players to re-think some key strategic pillars with a long-term mindset PRICING STRATEGY How to re-think pricing to maximize local and touristic spending while safeguarding margins? Which is the best strategy to maximize China long term potential? DISTRIBUTION STRATEGY Whats the right distribution blueprint in the different regions? How the role of the stores has to change? How to change the accountability model to better analyze the new value drivers? CONSUMER STRATEGY How and where to engage consumers? How to serve very diverse consumer segments and generations? Who will have ownership of consumers? People, Passion, Results! 19 Claudia DArpizio, Partner Bains Luxury Goods Vertical Claudia DArpizio is a Partner at Bain & Company Milan office. She is a leading member of the firms Global Consumer Products and Retail Practices, and leads Bains Luxury Goods Vertical. For 20 years, Claudia has advised multinational clients, mainly in luxury and fashion goods. She has extensively worked on issues relating to corporate and business unit strategy, sales and marketing, product and service adjacencies, channel and omni-channel strategy, new product development, innovation, acquisitions and divestitures, performance improvement and organizational changes. Claudia is the lead author of the Bains Yearly Luxury Study, developed since 1999 in cooperation with Altagamma, the trade association of the Italian luxury brands. This study, based on the analysis of an extensive panel of worldwide luxury brands, is periodically updated and has become one of the most valued and cited sources of market information in the luxury industry. Claudia is a globally recognized expert in luxury and in 2009 was named by the Consulting Magazine one of the “Top 25 Consultants in the World”. Claudia is frequent speaker and writer on luxury goods strategy and she is extensively quoted in Italian and international media: Il sole 24 ore, La Repubblica, Il Corriere della Sera, The Wall Street Journal, US, Europe and Asia editions, Financial Times, New York Times, The Economist, Newsweek, Reuters, Bloomberg, Associated Press, WWD, Fortune, Washington Post, International Herald Tribune, National Post Business Magazine, Boston Globe, The Time and Dow Jones Newswire. Claudia DArpizio 20 Bain contacts For any questions or further discussion, please contact: Claudia DArpizio -Partner (Milan) -Email: claudia.darpiziobain.it Federica Levato -Principal (Milan) -Email: federica.levatobain.it Daniele Zito -Consultant (Milan) -Email: daniele.zitobain.it For a copy of the study, please contact: INTERNATIONAL PRESS -Dan Pinkney (dan.pinkneybain or +1 646-562-8102) ITALIAN PRESS - Cristina Brignola (cristina.brignolabain.it or +39 02 58288 553) 21 Methodology Revenues at retail value represent total sales valued at retail price. Each player consolidated sales are retailized through the following methodology: 1 Revenues at retail equivalent value Retail Wholesale Licenses PLAYER CONSOLIDATED SALES + + Retail Wholesale at retail value Licenses at retail value PLAYER SALES AT RETAIL VALUE + + Application of estimated mark ups by geography and category Application of estimated royalty rates and mark ups by geography and product category 2 Bottom-up and Top-down estimates BOTTOM-UP We add brands individual retail values. TOP-DOWN Industry-specific (e.g. watches vs. beauty) data in the main geographical markets Comparison between market breakdown and turnover breakdown for key players Tens of industry experts interviews (top management of brands, distributor, department stores, ) Consistency check on the data and fine tuning .we cross check results
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