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Global economic conditions survey final report:Q4, 2017 The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, Institute of Management AccountantsJanuary 2018About IMAIMA, the association of accountants and financial professionals in business, is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession. Globally, IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA (Certified Management Accountant) program, continuing education, networking and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices. IMA has a global network of more than 85,000 members in 140 countries and 300 professional and student chapters. Headquartered in Montvale, N.J., USA, IMA provides localized services through its four global regions: The Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe and Middle East/India. For more information about IMA, please visit: imanetAbout ACCA ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is the global body for professional accountants, offering business-relevant, first-choice qualifications to people of application, ability and ambition around the world who seek a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management.ACCA supports its 200,000 members and 486,000 students in 180 countries, helping them to develop successful careers in accounting and business, with the skills required by employers. ACCA works through a network of 101 offices and centres and more than 7,200 Approved Employers worldwide, who provide high standards of employee learning and development. Through its public interest remit, ACCA promotes appropriate regulation of accounting and conducts relevant research to ensure accountancy continues to grow in reputation and influence. ACCA is currently introducing major innovations to its flagship qualification to ensure its members and future members continue to be the most valued, up to date and sought-after accountancy professionals globally.Founded in 1904, ACCA has consistently held unique core values: opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity and accountability. More information is here: accaglobalThe Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), carried out jointly by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (the Institute of Management Accountants), is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world, in terms of both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors. Its main indices are good predictors of GDP growth in themed countries and its daily trend deviations correlate well with the VIX, or fear index, which measures expected stock price volatility.Fieldwork for the Q4 2017 GECS took place between 24 November and 11 December 2017 and attracted 4,011 responses from ACCA and IMA members around the world, including more than 250 CFOs.ACCA and IMA would like to thank all members who took the time to respond to the survey. It is their first-hand insights into the fortunes of companies around the world that make GECS a trusted barometer for the global economy. We would also like to thank the following for their time and expertise: Andrew Kenningham, Senior International Economist, Capital Economics Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, TS Lombard Claus Vistesen, Chief Eurozone Economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics.IntroductionThe Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is the largest regular economic survey of accountants in the world.3Global economic confidence dipped slightly in the final quarter of the year, but is still higher than its average for the past couple of years. This is broadly consistent with the PMIs and the hard economic data, which suggest that the global economy remains in decent health.Confidence is high in North America and South Asia, which reflects the positive growth outlook for those regions two biggest economies: the US and India. In the Middle East, meanwhile, confidence is low, which is due in large part to the slump in oil prices since 2015 that has weighed heavily on the regions growth prospects. And in the Caribbean, massive hurricanes late last year have damaged growth prospects and dented confidence. As has been the case for some time, respondents biggest concern is increased costs (cited by 52%). Second on the list are worries about decreased incomes (39%), followed by concerns about the negative impact of foreign currency movements (28%). As in Q3, suppliers going out of business is last on the list of concerns (10%).Given their concerns about rising costs, it is perhaps no surprise that respondents cite the opportunity to explore lowering costs as Q4s main positive development (43%). In second place is the opportunity to benefit by focusing on innovation (40%). Worryingly, the opportunity to increase orders is last on the list, with just 12% of respondents citing this as a development. Confidence in the US has rebounded strongly, and is now at its highest level since the start of 2017. That improvement in confidence is matched by other data (both surveys and hard data) that show the US economy rebounding strongly. In contrast, the UKs economic confidence has dropped compared with Q3. Although higher than in Q2, it remains low by historical standards. On the plus side, the chances of the country leaving the European Union without a deal appear to be decreasing, but there remains a great deal of uncertainty about how the situation will develop in 2018. China has also experienced a drop in confidence. This is partly because confidence in the previous quarter was so high, but it is also consistent with the hard economic data, such as industrial production and fixed investment, which suggest that the economy may have lost some momentum.Executive summary Global economic confidence dipped slightly in the final quarter of the year, but is still higher than its average for the past couple of years. 4Chart 1: Global confidence drops backSource: GECS5Economic confidence dipped slightly in the final quarter of 2017, but remains high compared with the past couple of years. The number of respondents expecting conditions to worsen now exceeds those expecting conditions to improve by 14 percentage points a wider gap than in Q3. The findings of our report are broadly consistent with the results of other surveys most notably the PMIs, but also the hard data for exports and GDP, which suggest that the global upswing remains on track.1. Global level analysisEconomic confidence dipped slightly in the final quarter of 2017, but remains high compared with the past couple of years. Q42011Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42012Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42013Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42014Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42015Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42016Q12017Q22017Q32017Q4201750403020100-10-20-30-40-50Confidence index Government spending index Capital expenditure index Employment indexGlobal economic conditions survey report: Q4, 2017 6The picture at the global level of the GECS is mixed. Central and South America is the most confident region followed by North America and South Asia. Chart 3: Developed and emerging economies are in syncSource: GECSQ42011Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42012Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42013Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42014Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42015Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42016Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42017151050-5-10-15-20-25-30-35-40OECD Non OECDThe picture at the global level of the GECS is mixed. Central and South America is the most confident region (although the small sample for this region means that confidence is highly volatile from one quarter to the next), followed by North America and South Asia. Confidence levels are lowest in the Caribbean and the Middle East. Confidence has dipped in the GECS for both the OECD and non-OECD countries, and is at a similar level in both, but both remain higher than their average for the past couple of years. Chart 2: A mixed picture at the global levelSource: GECS403020100-10-20-30-40-50Central & South AmericaSouth AsiaNorth AmericaAfrica Total Western EuropeCEE CaribbeanAsia PacificMiddle EastUS TAX CUTS: COULD BOOST INFLATION RATHER THAN GROWTHThe passage of the US$1.5tn Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December 2017 represents a political success for the current US administration, but with the economy at close to full employment there is a risk that the reforms will boost inflation more than economic growth.At the core of the deal is a new corporate tax rate of 21% (down from 35%). This was enacted immediately, followed by lower income tax rates for some taxpayers in 2018.These cuts should boost the US economy in 2018, but the benefits are unlikely to be huge. Although the cut to the headline corporation tax rate is significant, various deductions mean that most companies in the US will pay closer to 25% of their profits in tax. In addition, the main beneficiaries of the income tax cuts are top earners, who typically save a greater proportion of their incomes.There is also concern that instead of boosting growth, the changes could simply push up inflation. The Federal Reserve has already indicated that it will continue to increase interest rates in 2018, but the tax changes could prompt it to tighten rates more aggressively, choking off the economic recovery.It is also important to consider the long-term impact on the US fiscal position. Government debt is 75% of GDP, and is likely to climb steadily higher over the coming decade as a result of the ageing population and associated care costs. The new tax act could put further pressure on the countrys fiscal position and could push debt to 100% of GDP within the next 10 years.72. Thematic analysisWith the economy at close to full employment there is a risk that the reforms will boost inflation more than economic growth.Chart 4: Corporate tax rates around the world (%)Source: KPMG4035302520151050US (old)FranceJapanGermanyChinaIndonesiaUS (new)UKAustraliaKoreaSwitzerlandSingaporeIrelandHong KongALL CHANGE IN CHINAAt Chinas National Peoples Congress (NPC) in October, personnel changes to the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) seem to have made it more economically liberal. This increases the likelihood of the new congress being able to push through key reforms more quickly. Most notably, the reforms could allow the private sector in China to compete with the state-owned sector on a level playing field. There are also hopes of efforts to reduce risks in the financial sector, even if this may come at the price of some reduction in growth.However, it remains to be seen if these hopes will come to fruition, given that in recent times, priorities have been focused on the anti-corruption campaign, rather than directly on economic reforms.Growth in China is slowing, with official figures showing the economy growing by just below 7% last year. Without market-orientated reforms, it is likely to slow further over the coming years. If this happens, some may wonder if Octobers NPC was a missed opportunity.THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS 10 YEARS ON: COULD IT HAPPEN AGAIN?A decade on from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the world economy looks much more secure. One key change is the significant reduction in risky lending. In the US, sub-prime mortgages account for less than 10% of mortgage lending down from 30% before the crisis. And in the UK, banks now require a bigger deposit for a house purchase.New regulations and the creation of more regulatory bodies should also help reduce the risk of a repeat crisis. Altered pay structures at financial institutions, bank stress tests and increased capital requirements should have made banks more robust than a decade ago. Meanwhile, new bodies such as the Bank of Englands Financial Policy Committee and the European Banking Authority will help to increase understanding of the key risks in financial sectors. Asset prices look more fairly valued than they did a decade ago. Although there are property hotspots across the world, most Global economic conditions survey report: Q4, 2017 8Reforms could allow the private sector in China to compete with the state-owned sector on a level playing field.Global economic conditions survey report: Q4, 2017 9notably in Hong Kong, Canada and the UK, prices in the US and much of the rest of the world look more sustainable. And despite the rapid increases in the past year, equity prices no longer look significantly overvalued on standard measures. But there remain areas of vulnerability. In particular, while debt levels in the developed world have come down sharply over the past decade, they have ballooned in a number of emerging markets most notably China and Turkey. Economic history suggests that this sort of debt bubble rarely ends well, so a credit crunch followed by a sharp economic slowdown is a valid fear but as far as China is concerned it is not one that Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro at TS Lombard, expects to be borne out this year. “As an economist, you worry about debt and sustainability of growth,” he says. “But as long as its effectively state-owned banks lending to state-owned enterprises, its hard to see why this would turn into some kind of debt crisis. So you end up with what becomes a long-term growth problem, but I dont think thats a story for 2018.” There is also uncertainty about how the global economy will extricate itself from the current policy of low interest rates. If they are kept low for too long, there could be a further build-up in asset prices that might burst further down the line. Alternatively, if central banks tighten policy too aggressively, they could choke off the current recovery in the global economy. The final area of concern is the rise of populism and the risk of increased protectionism. The UKs Brexit vote and the result of the US presidential election were both unexpected, and could have far-reaching effects on the global economy. In particular, if the UK falls out of the EU without a transition agreement in place, it could lead to a drop in confidence in both the UK and the rest of Europe. Meanwhile, although the US administration has so far failed to push ahead with the protectionism mooted on the campaign trail, this could change. If 2018 sees the US pull out of NAFTA or start a trade war with China, this could have a destabilizing effect on the global economy. There is also uncertainty about how the global economy will extricate itself from the current policy of low interest rates. If they are kept low for too long, there could be a further build-up in asset prices that might burst further down the line.Chart 5: Private sector credit in China, Turkey and the US (% of GDP). Turkey shown on right-hand axis, China and US on left-handSource: Bank of International Settlements220200180160140120100China US (LHS) Turkey (RHS)Q12000Q42000Q32001Q22002Q12003Q42003Q32004Q22005Q12006Q42006Q32007Q22008Q12009Q42009Q32010Q22011Q12012Q42012Q32013Q22014Q120
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