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2019 APR WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery2019 International Monetary FundCover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company Cataloging-in-Publication Data Joint Bank-Fund Library Names: International Monetary Fund. Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877. Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online) Subjects: LCSH: Economic developmentPeriodicals. | International economic relations Periodicals. | Debts, ExternalPeriodicals. | Balance of paymentsPeriodicals. | International financePeriodicals. | Economic forecastingPeriodicals. Classification: LCC HC10.W79HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-48439-748-0 (English Paper)978-1-49830-610-2 (English ePub)978-1-49830-611-9 (English Mobi)978-1-49830-611-9 (English PDF) The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 21, 2019. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMFs Executive Directors or their national authorities. Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2018. World Economic Outlook: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery. Washington, DC, April. Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P .O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USA Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publicationsimf imfbookstore elibrary.imf International Monetary Fund | April 2019 iii CONTENTS Assumptions and Conventions ix Further Information x Data xi Preface xii Foreword xiii Executive Summary xv Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1 Recent Developments: Global Expansion Loses Steam 1 The Forecast 7 Risks: Skewed to the Downside 19 Policy Priorities: Enhance Resilience, Raise Medium-Term Growth Prospects 21 Scenario Box 1. A No-Deal Brexit 28 Box 1.1. Labor Market Dynamics in Select Advanced Economies 32 Box 1.2. Global Growth Forecast: Assumptions on Policies, Financial Conditions, and Commodity Prices 34 Box 1.3. Worlds Apart? Within-Country Regional Disparities 35 Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts 37 References 53 Online Annexes Special Feature Online Annex Chapter 2. The Rise of Corporate Market Power and its Macroeconomic Effects 55 Introduction 55 The Rise of Corporate Market Power 58 Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Market Power 62 Summary and Policy Implications 67 Box 2.1. The Comovement between Industry Concentration and Corporate Saving 70 Box 2.2. Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Market Power 72 References 74 Online Annexes Annex 2.1. Data Sources and Sample Annex 2.2. Assessing Corporate Market Power: Methodologies and Further Stylized Facts Annex 2.3. Assessing the Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Market Power: Methodological Details and Results Chapter 3. The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment under Threat? 77 Introduction 77 The Price of Capital Goods: Key Patterns 80 The Relative Price of Capital Goods: A Simple Framework 83 Drivers of Relative Investment Prices 83WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY iv International Monetary Fund | April 2019 Macroeconomic Implications of Shocks to the Price of Capital Goods 88 Summary and Policy Implications 91 Box 3.1. The Price of Manufactured Low-Carbon Energy Technologies 93 Box 3.2. Evidence from Big Data: Capital Goods Prices across Countries 95 Box 3.3. On the Underlying Source of Changes in Capital Goods Prices: A Model-Based Analysis 96 Box 3.4. Capital Goods Tariffs and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence from Colombia 98 References 100 Online Annexes Annex 3.1. Data Sources and Country Groupings Annex 3.2. Supplementary Stylized Facts Annex 3.3. Using Trade Data to Uncover Differences in Capital Goods Prices across Countries Annex 3.4. Drivers of Relative Investment Prices: Across Countries Annex 3.5. Drivers of Relative Investment Prices: Over Time Annex 3.6. Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Relative Investment Prices on Investment Rates at the Country Level Annex 3.7. Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Relative Investment Prices on Investment Rates at the Sector Level Chapter 4. The Drivers of Bilateral Trade and the Spillovers from Tariffs 103 Introduction 103 Stylized Facts 105 Determinants of Bilateral Trade Balances 109 The Role of Macroeconomic Factors 113 A Closer Look at Tariffs and Their Spillovers 115 Conclusion 119 Box 4.1. Gross versus Value-Added Trade 120 Box 4.2. Bilateral and Aggregate Trade Balances 122 Box 4.3. Understanding Trade Deficit Adjustments: Does Bilateral Trade Play a Special Role? 123 Box 4.4. The Global Macro and Micro Effects of a USChina Trade Dispute: Insights from Three Models 124 References 128 Online Annexes Annex 4.1. Gravity Model, Data, and Estimation Annex 4.2. Derivation of Relation between Bilateral and Aggregate Trade Balances Annex 4.3. Tariff Spillovers: Technical and Data Appendices Statistical Appendix 131 Assumptions 131 Whats New 132 Data and Conventions 132 Country Notes 133 Classification of Countries 133 General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 134 Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP , Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2018 135 Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 136 Table C. European Union 136 Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 137contentsInternational Monetary Fund | April 2019 v Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 138 Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 140 Table G. Key Data Documentation 141 Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 151 List of Tables Output (Tables A1A4) 156 Inflation (Tables A5A7) 163 Financial Policies (Table A8) 168 Foreign Trade (Table A9) 169 Current Account Transactions (Tables A10A12) 171 Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 178 Flow of Funds (Table A14) 182 Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15) 185 World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 187 IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2019 197 Tables Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 8 Scenario Table 1. Trade Assumptions in the Baseline, Scenario A, and Scenario B 28 Table 1.SF .1. Commodity Price Cycle Descriptive Statistics 41 Table 1.SF .2. Global Industrial Production Nowcast 44 Table 1.SF .3. Global GDP Nowcast 44 Table 1.SF .4. Forecasting Global Industrial Production and GDP 45 Annex Table 1.1.1. European Economies: Real GDP , Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 46 Annex Table 1.1.2. Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP , Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 47 Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP , Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 48 Annex Table 1.1.4. Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP , Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 49 Annex Table 1.1.5. Middle East, North African Economies, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Real GDP , Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 50 Annex Table 1.1.6. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP , Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 51 Annex Table 1.1.7. Summary of World Real per Capita Output 52 Table 3.1. Sectoral Producer Prices 87 Table 3.2. Real Investment Rate and the Relative Price of Machinery and Equipment 89 Table 4.1. Sign and Significance of Tariff Effects on Economic Variables 117 Table 4.4.1. Macro Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All USChina Trade: Bilateral Trade Flows with Third Countries 126 Online TablesStatistical Appendix Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY vi International Monetary Fund | April 2019 Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Excluding Social Security Schemes Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Table B10. Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods Table B15. Summary of Current Account Transactions Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Summary of External Debt and Debt Service Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt by Maturity Table B19. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators Figures Figure 1. Half-Yearly Growth Rates xv Figure 1.1. Global Activity Indicators 2 Figure 1.2. Trade Indicators 2 Figure 1.3. Commodity Prices 3 Figure 1.4. Global Inflation 4 Figure 1.5. Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions 4 Figure 1.6. Emerging Market Economies: Interest Rates and Spreads 5 Figure 1.7. Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit 6 Figure 1.8. Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, September 2018March 2019 6 Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Economies: Capital Flows 7 Figure 1.10. Half-Yearly Growth Forecasts 7 Figure 1.11. Forecast Assumptions: Fiscal Indicators 10 Figure 1.12. Commodity Price Assumptions and Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and Losses 10 Figure 1.13. Growth Rate: Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 12 Figure 1.14. Contributions to GDP Growth 14 Figure 1.15. Per Capita Real GDP Growth 15 Figure 1.16. Global Current Account Balance 17 Figure 1.17. Current Account Balances in Relation to Economic Fundamentals 17 Figure 1.18. Net International Investment Position 18 Figure 1.19. Policy Uncertainty and Trade Tensions 20 Figure 1.20. Geopolitical Risk Index 20 Figure 1.21. Risks to the Global Outlook 21 Scenario Figure 1. Real GDP in Brexit Scenario 30 Scenario Figure 2. Brexit Long-Term Real GDP Effects 31contents Figure 1.1.1. Labor Market Dynamics in Selected Advanced Economies 33 Figure 1.3.1. Regional Disparities in GDP per Capita 35 Figure 1.SF.1. Commodity Market Developments 38 Figure 1.SF.2. Commodity Cycles and Economic Activity 40 Figure 1.SF.3. Synchronization with Economic Activity 42 Figure 1.SF.4. Commodity-Wide Synchronization 42 Figure 1.SF.5. Latent Factors and Economic Activity 43 Figure 1.SF.6. Global Real GDP Growth Nowcast: Actual versus Fitted Value 45 Figure 2.1. Worrisome Macroeconomic Trends 56 Figure 2.2. Evolution of Market Power 59 Figure 2.3. Markup Increases, by Country Income Group 60 Figure 2.4. Decomposition of Markup Increases 60 Figure 2.5. Disconnect between Firms in the Top Decile and the Rest 61 Figure 2.6. Patents and Markups: A Hump-Shaped Relationship 63 Figure 2.7. Implied Relationship between Higher Markups and Patents 63 Figure 2.8. Markups and Physical Capital Investment 64 Figure 2.9. Markup Increases, Investment, and the Natural Interest Rate 66 Figure 2.10. Markups and Labor Income Shares 67 Figure 2.1.1. Comovement between Average Industry Concentration and Corporate Saving in Group of Seven Countries 70 Figure 2.1.2. Change in Industry Concentration and Change in Saving Rates 71 Figure 2.2.1. Total Number of Deals and Share of Horizontal Deals 72 Figure 2.2.2. Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions on Acquirer Firms Markups, by Deal Type 73 Figure 3.1. Capital Stock, Investment, and the Relative Price of Capital Goods 78 Figure 3.2. Dynamics of Relative Prices across Types of Capital Goods and Broad Country Groups 81 Figure 3.3. Absolute and Relative Prices of Machinery and Equipment across Countries in 2011 82 Figure 3.4. Unit Values of Tradable Capital Goods across Countries 84 Figure 3.5. Trade Costs in 2011 85 Figure 3.6. Trade Costs, Relative Productivity, and the Price of Capital Goods in 2011 85 Figure 3.7. Contributions to Changes in Relative Producer Prices of Capital Goods: 200011 87 Figure 3.8. Elasticity of Real Investment-to-GDP Ratio to Relative Price of Capital Goods: Model Simulations versus Empirical Evidence 90 Figure 3.9. Contributions of Relative Prices to Increases in Real Investment in Machinery and Equipment, 199094 to 201014 90 Figure 3.1.1. Levelized Cost of Electricity of Low-Carbon Energy Sources 93 Figure 3.1.2. Annual Additions to Global Electricity Capacity 93 Figure 3.2.1. Price of Apple Products and Income 95 Figure 3.3.1. Model Simulations 96 Figure 3.4.1. Distribution of Tariff Changes between 2010 and 2011 98 Figure 3.4.2. Effect on Investment from Cuts in Tariffs on Capital Goods Inputs, Other Inputs, and Output 98 Figure 4.1. Bilateral Trade Balances, by Major Partners 106 Figure 4.2. Global Trade Imbalances 106 Figure 4.3. Trade Intensity and Barriers to Trade 107 Figure 4.4. Revealed Comparative Advantage 107 Figure 4.5. Largest Trade Flows, 1995 versus 2015 108 Figure 4.6. The Role of Global Value Chains 109 Figure 4.7. Contributions to Changes in Bilateral Trade Balances, 19952015 111 Figure 4.8. Effect of a Deterioration of Germanys Aggregate Trade Balance
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