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An index and study by The Economist Intelligence Unit Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Asia The 2018 InfrascopeThe world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. 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We work globally, supporting senior management with strategic initiatives, M “Kyrgyzstan” as the Kyrgyz Republic; “China” as the Peoples Republic of China; and “Timor” as Timor-Leste. While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, neither The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd nor ADB can accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any other information, opinions or conclusions set out herein. Please use the following wording when citing this report: The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2018. Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Asia: The 2018 Infrascope. The EIU, London. For further information, please contact: The Economist Intelligence Unit Leo Abruzzese, Project Director: leoabruzzeseeiu Stefano Scuratti, Project Lead: stefanoscurattieconomist Vaibhav Sahgal, Project Analyst: vaibhavsahgaleconomist Jennifer Wells, Marketing Executive: jenniferwellseiu About this report EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN ASIA THE 2018 INFRASCOPE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 2 The Economist Intelligence Unit is the research arm of The Economist Group, publisher of The Economist. As the worlds leading provider of country intelligence, we help governments, institutions and businesses by providing timely, reliable and impartial analysis of economic and development strategies. Through its public policy practice, The Economist Intelligence Unit provides evidence- based research for policymakers and stakeholders seeking measurable outcomes in fields ranging from gender and finance to energy and technology. We conduct research through interviews, regulatory analysis, quantitative modelling and forecasting, and display the results via interactive data visualisation tools. Through a global network of more than 350 analysts and contributors, The Economist Intelligence Unit continuously assesses and forecasts political, economic and business conditions in over 200 countries. For more information, visit eiu. About The Economist Intelligence Unit As part of the research process for this project, 127 in-depth telephone interviews were conducted with policymakers and country infrastructure experts from multilateral and consulting institutions and from the private sector. We would like to express our thanks to all the interviewees for their advice and input. The following researchers, country analysts and specialists also contributed to this report. We thank them for their participation. Country analysis: Andrea Arricale, Anwita Basu, Charlotte Melkun, Darang Chandra, Diane Alarcon, Kate Allard, Lee-Yun Chiang, Marlon Martinez, Shalini Mittal, Supharin Chatthaworn and Yue Su.Lead academic advisor: Michael Regan Report editing: Adam Green (lead editor) Craig Elliott (copy-editor) Model development: Marcus Krackowizer Acknowledgments EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN ASIA THE 2018 INFRASCOPE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 3 Introduction 4 Infrascope categories and indicators 6 Key findings 7 2018: Top performers 9 Category scores 11 Domain 1: Regulations 11 Domain 2: Institutions 18 Domain 3: Maturity 22 Domain 4: Investment and business climate 25 Domain 5: Financing 28 Infrascope country summaries 31 Armenia 31 Bangladesh 33 Peoples Republic of China 35 Georgia 37 Gujarat state 39 India 41 Indonesia 43 Kazakhstan 45 Kyrgyz Republic 47 Mongolia 49 Pakistan 51 Philippines 53 Papua New Guinea 55 Sindh province 57 Sri Lanka 59 Tajikistan 61 Thailand 63 Timor-Leste 65 Viet Nam 67 Appendix I: Project background 69 Appendix II: Methodology, sources and detailed indicator deinitions 73 Glossary 93 Bibliography 96 ContentsEVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN ASIA THE 2018 INFRASCOPE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 4 A sia has been the worlds best-performing region over the past three decades, with sustained economic growth driving poverty reduction in the regions two largest economies, the Peoples Republic of China (PRC henceforth) and India, as well as in most of its middle- and high-income countries. Current high performers, in terms of annual real GDP growth forecasts for year 2018, include Viet Nam (6.9%) and the Philippines (6.6%). The East Asia and Pacific region (excluding its high-income economies) is expected to grow at 6.6% per annum, while South Asia is expected to grow at 7.1%. Infrastructure is a major contributor to economic development and output. However, underinvestment is an impediment to growth, productivity improvements and reduced transaction costs. Inadequate transport, energy, sanitation and waste systems increase the costs of doing business, undermine health outcomes and deepen inequality. Infrastructure investment can raise productivity at the enterprise level, strengthen trade, provide better access to health and education services and contribute to improvements in human capital. As a sector, infrastructure is prominent in the development discourse of the Asia region. Most discussed is PRCs Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); announced in 2013, the programme, with an estimated value of US$900bn, may be the largest cross- border infrastructure investment scheme in history. New economic corridors such as the PRC-Pakistan initiative, the Trans-Asian Railway and Indias East Coast Corridor are other development strategies designed to foster intraregional trade and development. The Philippines is targeting US$180bn in spending on infrastructure between 2017 and 2022, including regional rail and road projects. Bangladesh completed its first infrastructure development plan, as part of the countrys sixth five- year plan, in 2011-15 and proposes major upgrading of its road and rail networks. Senior Bangladeshi government figures speak publicly about the importance of infrastructure as a development strategy, and about public-private partnership (PPP) delivery as both an efficient procurement option for governments and a way to help bridge the regions infrastructure funding shortfall; developing Asia needs to invest US$1.7trn per year in infrastructure until 2030 to maintain its growth momentum, tackle poverty, and respond to the challenges of climate change. 1As project development presents significant technical and financial challenges, PPPs play an important rolethey facilitate private-sector participation in infrastructure development and thus are a mechanism for increasing investment in this asset class. PPPs are long-term contracts between a government agency and private sponsors for the design, construction, financing, operation and maintenance of infrastructure for delivery of public services. Typically, private partners assume significant construction, operation and maintenance risks and take on responsibility for service delivery over the life of the contract. The sponsor is paid only for services provided to specification, and the public sector is responsible for project implementation, policy oversight and regulation. The infrastructure assets generally revert to public-sector control at the end of the contract term. The co-operation of both parties is crucial to ensure a smoothly functioning PPP . In order to attract private capital and expertise, the PPP framework must properly balance the public interest with the requirement that investors achieve a risk-adjusted return on investment. Introduction 1adb. org/publications/asia- infrastructure-needsEVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN ASIA THE 2018 INFRASCOPE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 5 Surveying the results of this edition of the Asia Infrascope, it is clear that the majority of governments within the country sample support PPPs as a modality and have created policy and investment environments that reflect this. However, not all political parties and social groups agree on the appropriate level of private participation in infrastructure. Therefore, governments and infrastructure companies that wish to promote PPP procurement may need to more actively make their case, understand objections and work to manage the environmental, social and economic risks and stakeholder concerns regarding the PPP procurement modality. This report can help to inform public debate and discussion on the optimal way to pursue PPPs. While acknowledging the importance of political support for PPPs, it examines: the quality of national and subnational institutional frameworks; the importance of macroeconomic stability; regulatory practices; provisions for speedy resolution of disputes; access to finance; and the capacity of government agencies to successfully select and implement appropriate projects for delivery in this modality. The objective of the report and the accompanying index is not simply to rank countries, but to use score movements as a benchmark from which to investigate trends, identify successful PPP performers, and focus on the approaches that can facilitate a better understanding of common challenges and best-practice standards. Gujarat state and Sindh province This edition of the Asia Infrascope comprises countries, with two exceptions, Gujarat state (India) and Sindh province (Pakistan), which are subnational governmental entities and which show the importance of subnational government PPP programmes as potential models of best practice. Both were also included in the previous Asia Infrascope in 2014, although the use of a different methodology in that year makes score comparisons problematic. Both subnational governments score highly in the 2018 index, at fifth and sixth respectively out of 19. Both are ranked as “mature” (the top performance tier) for their institutional environments. Gujarat, Indias westernmost state, scores 75 out of a possible 100 overall and is in the top tier for its investment and business climate, and also in financing, the area in which overall Asian performance is weakest. Gujarat also scores well for its PPP (operational) maturity, showing that the states PPP policy and project experience has been built up over many years and has delivered a large number of projects in different sectors of the subnational economy. Sindhs most positive performances are in its regulatory environment (especially its PPP selection criteria and the fairness and openness of bids and contracts) and its institutional environment, including the stability of its PPP agency, the resourcing of project selection and implementation, and institutional transparency and accountability. Its PPP policy framework was revised in 2010 to include the establishment of a PPP policy board to develop strategic goals and monitor PPP implementation, as well as a unit located within the finance department which, when approved by the policy board, works with contracting agencies to identify and prepare projects. Sindhs regulatory framework also provides clear procedures for dispute resolution and for dealing with unsolicited bids. In addition, the province has its own infrastructure plan. While most analysis in this report focuses on countries, the coverage of both Sindh and Gujarat warrants further reading for those interested in the role of subnational governments in the successful delivery of PPP projects.
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