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A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit Preparing for disruption Technological Readiness RankingThe world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. We specialise in: Country Analysis: Access to regular, detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts, as well as assessments of the business and regulatory environments in different markets. Risk Analysis: Our risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand the implications for their organisations. Industry Analysis: Five year forecasts, analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 major economies. These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends. EIU Consulting EIU Consulting is a bespoke service designed to provide solutions specific to our customers needs. We specialise in these key sectors: E IU C onsumer : We help consumer-facing companies to enter new markets as well as deliver greater success in current markets. We work globally, supporting senior management with strategic initiatives, M in those places where this is lacking, business opportunities are significantly constrained. This section of our ranking, which looks at the share of a countrys population that has access to connectivity, underpins all of the others. Not only is access to the internet the sine qua non of technological readiness; it is also a critical component of a robust business environment. We have approached the question of internet access in two ways: the level of internet usage; and the number of mobile-phone subscriptions per head. Internet usage We estimate that about half of the global population had access to the internet in 2017; by 2022 this will have risen to three-quarters. With broadband penetration already high in the West, most of this growth will come from Latin America and the Middle East, both of which are attracting significant amounts of broadband investment from the private sector. Africa will also spur growth, as a host of Source: ITU. 80 100 60 79 40 59 20 39 0 19 No data Internet users (% of total population; 2016)PREPARING FOR DISRUPTION TECHNOLOGICAL READINESS RANKING The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 6 countries continue to develop and implement broadband infrastructure strategies. In some markets, the growing availability of competitive mobile broadband packages will result in consumers becoming increasingly reliant on mobile phones for internet access. In India, for example, around 80% of internet usage now takes place via mobile phones. In line with this strong growth outlook, we expect over half of the 82 countries in our ranking to register improvements in their scores for internet usage between our historical period (2013-17) and our forecast period (2018-22). We expect particularly strong jumps in access in India, the Philippines, Ecuador and Malaysia. Only one country is likely to see a decline in internet access in this period: Venezuela, which is currently enduring a debt and hyperinflation crisis that we expect to turn into an outright economic collapse. On the whole, there is a strong correlation between the level of internet usage and a countrys overall technological readiness score. However, there are a few exceptions, with Bahrain, Kuwait and Azerbaijan having high levels of internet usage but scoring poorly in the other categories of our ranking. In the case of Azerbaijan, where this contrast is most striking, internet usageat 78% of the populationis above that in Russia and much of central and eastern Europe, but investment in broadband provision and other elements of digital infrastructure has failed to keep pace with demand. Mobile phone subscriptions A complementary indicator to internet access, the number of mobile phone subscriptions per head helps to build up the picture of how easy it is for individuals from all segments of society to access the internet. It also suggests how much household demand there is for connectivity, and indicates a countrys capacity to adopt and embed new technologies. Source: ITU. Mobile phone subscriptions: Top 10 (per 100 people; 2015) 0 50 100 150 200 250 Portugal South Africa Kuwait Saudi Arabia Russia Jordan Bahrain UAE Finland Hong Kong Mobile phone subscriptions: Bottom 10 (per 100 people; 2015) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Cuba Angola Pakistan India Kenya Canada Bangladesh Dominican Republic Nigeria Ecuador 231 84 83 83 82 82 81 77 68 61 30 198 187 185 179 172 171 163 163 162PREPARING FOR DISRUPTION TECHNOLOGICAL READINESS RANKING The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 7 The average number of mobile phone subscriptions per head has soared over the past decade, and in our highest-ranking countryHong Kongthere are now a staggering 2.3 subscriptions per person. Finland, the UAE and Bahrain also have highly saturated markets. Only in 13 of the countries in our index is there less than one mobile phone subscription per person. Perhaps the most surprising inclusion in this group is Canada, which reflects the high cost of phone subscriptions in this country. Cubas position at the very bottom of our ranking reflects the policies of the communist government: Cubans were not allowed to buy mobile phones until 2008, and internet access remains severely restricted. We expect mobile subscriptions to continue to grow strongly over the forecast period, with operators in many markets struggling to roll out infrastructure fast enough to keep pace with consumer demandparticularly for mobile broadband data. Telecommunications operators are working to invest in spectrum bands to boost network capacity and so cater to this growing demand. In developing countries the main focus is on fourth-generation (4G) technology, but in advanced economies the discussion is already moving on to what 5G capabilities might involve. More broadly speaking, mobile technology is an increasingly powerful tool. Mobile payment systems are growing in sophistication and functionality, opening up commercial opportunities even in countries where broadband subscriptions remain low. Meanwhile, mobile applications, for instance in the fields of healthcare and education, are increasingly becoming tools to support human capital development in emerging markets.
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