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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure AuthorizedMartha Lawrence, Richard Bullock, and Ziming Liu Chinas High-Speed Rail Development INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW , Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: worldbank Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpre- tations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Cover design: Debra Naylor/Naylor Design, Inc. iii Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix About the Authors xi Abbreviations xiii Executive Summary 1 Notes 5 Reference 5 CHAPTER 1: Growth of High-Speed Rail in China 7 Rail industry structure 7 HSR subsector structure 8 HSR planning 9 HSR network development 10 Current network 18 Highlights 19 Notes 19 CHAPTER 2: Service Design 21 Current service levels 21 Service frequency, capacity, and market size 21 Choosing the speed of HSR 23 Operational management 25 HSR fare structure 25 Punctuality and reliability 27 Combining the HSR and conventional rail networks 27 Highlights 28 Notes 28 Reference 28 CHAPTER 3: Markets 29 Traffic growth and density 29 HSR passenger markets 30 New traffic 33 Impact on conventional rail services 34 Affordability of HSR in China 36 Highlights 38 Notes 38 Reference 38iv | C HINAS HIGH-SPEED RAIL DEv ELOPMENT CHAPTER 4: Construction 39 Design standards and construction cost 39 The HSR supply chain 41 Project planning, design, and approval 43 Construction oversight and supervision 45 Construction management 45 Incentive mechanisms in HSR project construction 48 Highlights 49 Notes 49 Reference 49 CHAPTER 5: Testing, Commissioning, and Safety 51 Completion acceptance of new lines 51 HSR safety 52 Infrastructure maintenance 54 Electric multiple unit maintenance 55 Highlights 55 CHAPTER 6: Finance 57 RA and JV financial performance 58 Line financial performance 61 Network financial performance 64 Financial sustainability of Chinas HSR 65 How to address financing issues 66 Highlights 68 Notes 68 CHAPTER 7: Economics 69 Capital costs 70 Operator costs and benefits 70 User costs and benefits 70 Greenhouse gas emissions 71 Road congestion and accidents 72 HSR and economic development 73 Urban development 75 Tourism 75 Economic rate of return 75 Highlights 78 Notes 78 References 79 CHAPTER 8: Conclusions 81 Boxes 1.1 Maglev or conventional track? 10 1.2 Research and development capacity 18 2.1 Implications for market size 23 4.1 JV contract management system 48 7 .1 Economic returns for Chinas high-speed rail 70 7 .2 Case study: The impact of high-speed rail on businesses 74 7 .3 Case study: High-speed rail and tourism in Qufu 76 Figures 1.1 Structure of Chinas high-speed rail sector 8 1.2 Length of Chinas high-speed rail network, 200817 12 2.1 High-speed rail fares compared to bus and air 26 3.1 HSR and conventional service demand, 200717 29 3.2 High-speed rail network traffic density 30Contents | v 3.3 Source of China Rail Highspeed passengers and passenger-kilometers, 2015 31 3.4 Effect of high-speed rail on air services 32 3.5 Effect of BeijingGuangzhou high-speed rail on air travel 32 3.6 Competitiveness of high-speed rail 33 3.7 Traffic density and market share on major corridors, 200113 34 3.8 Train services in high-speed rail corridors, 201 116 35 3.9 Income distribution and monthly income of rail passengers, 2015 37 4.1 Construction cost of high-speed rail projects in China 41 4.2 Construction management structure 47 6.1 Direct and equity financing models 57 6.2 Ticket revenue and access charge models 58 6.3 Costs and revenues, 250 kph line 60 6.4 Costs and revenues, 350 kph line 60 6.5 Breakeven passenger density at opening 61 6.6 Breakeven passenger density for full debt service for future years, 50 percent debt:50 percent equity 63 6.7 Breakeven tariffs for 250 and 350 kph lines, 50 percent debt:50 percent equity 63 7 .1 GHG per pkm as a function of passenger density 72 7 .2 Economic costs and benefits of high-speed rail 77 7 .3 EIRR sensitivity to passenger density 78 Maps 1.1 Planned high-speed rail corridors 1 1 1.2 Growth of Chinas high-speed rail network, 200817 13 2.1 Speed of Chinas existing high-speed rail network 22 Photos 3.1 Family traveling on GuiyangGuangzhou high-speed rail 37 4.1 Setting precast bridge beams on Zhanghu railway line 42 4.2 Specialized equipment for transporting bridge beams 43 Tables 2.1 Selected high-speed rail service patterns, August 2018 22 2.2 Classification of HSR lines 24 2.3 Chinas high-speed rail fares, 201 116 25 2.4 Line and rolling stock correspondence 28 3.1 High-speed rail share of rail market in BeijingGuangzhou line corridor, 2013 36 4.1 HSR technical standards by maximum speed 40 5.1 High-speed rail track maintenance inspection program 54 6.1 China HSR unit revenues and costs, 2016 59 6.2 Breakeven traffic densities at opening 62 6.3 Assumptions made in the financial evaluation of high-speed rail 64 6.4 Financial analysis of CRH network as of end-2015 65 7 .1 Assumptions made in the economic evaluation of high-speed rail 70 B7 .1.1 Economic rate of return 70 7 .2 Economic costs and benefits by component 76 7 .3 Sensitivity tests on EIRR 77 vii Foreword 2018 marked the 40th anniversary of Chinas “reform and opening up”a period of high growth and poverty reduction. Chinas remarkable development was made possible by a wide range of reforms that transformed the economy into a more market-based open economy and through a large-scale infrastructure development program. Chinas leadership in transport development started with years of investment in skills and know-how, focused on quality, safety, timely completion, investment benefit, environmental protection, and technical innovation. China has made fantastic progress in developing its transport infrastructure. From 1990 to today, China has added over 120,000 kilometers (km) of railways, 130,000 km of expressways, 3.7 million km of road, and 740,000 km of coastal quay lines to its national transport system. The World Bank has been Chinas partner in this journey. In the past three decades, the World Bank has approved more than 110 transportation projects in China, with a total investment of $19 billion. The World Bank has also been a knowledge partner, producing over 15 targeted studies captured in the China Transport Topics series. The World Bank and Chinas Ministry of Transport have jointly developed the Transport Transformation and Innovation Knowledge Platform (TransFORM) programa flagship knowledge platform to share Chinese and international transport experiences and facilitate learning within China and other World Bank client countries. What can other countries learn from Chinas success? Chinese best practices are very relevant for World Bank clients looking for sustainable solutions to transport development challenges. Through TransFORM, the World Bank is analyzing Chinas experience in five areas of transporthigh-speed rail, high- ways, urban transport, ports, and inland waterwaysto identify lessons that are transferrable from China to other developing countries. This report on high- speed rail is the first in this series. The report covers a broad range of why, what, and how questions. Since 2008, China has put into operation a high-speed rail network that is larger than all the high-speed networks in the rest of the world put together. This rapid growth makes China worth studying from the “how” perspective: What planning pro- cesses, capacity development, business structures, and construction modalities viii | C HINAS HIGH-SPEED RAIL DEv ELOPMENT enabled this rapid growth? Chinas traffic has grown to 1.7 billion passenger trips per year. In an era when many railways face declining patronage, what price and service characteristics make high-speed rail attractive to this large number of passengers? China was the first middle-income country to develop a high-speed railway network and to price the service so that people of all income levels use high-speed rail. Why can China price high-speed rail services affordably and still maintain financial and economic viability? I encourage you to read the full report to find the answers to these and many other questions. Binyam Reja, PhD Practice Manager, Transport Global Practice Central Asia, China, and Mongolia The World Bank ix Acknowledgments This report was written by Martha Lawrence, Richard Bullock, and Ziming Liu. It is based on a report prepared by the China Railway Design and Research Institute and reports prepared by the World Bank while providing financing for six Chinese high-speed rail projects. Contributors include Bernard Aritua, Gerald Ollivier, Jit Sondhi, Can Hua Tan, Peishen Wang, Jianping Zhang, and Nanyan Zhou. The team is grateful to Binyam Reja, Transport Global Practice Manager for Central Asia, China, and Mongolia, for his guidance and support in preparing this report. The team would like to thank the following people for reviewing and com- menting on the report: Atul Agarwal, Paul Amos, Federico Antoniazzi, v ictor Aragonas, Achal Khare, Lei Nie, and Wei Winnie Wang. All errors are the respon- sibility of the authors. The team would like to acknowledge the cooperation and information provided to the World Bank team by the China Railway Design and Research Institute and the China Railway Corporation, and the many represen- tatives of local and national government who have shared their views on the development of the Chinese high-speed rail system. Funding for this report was provided by the ChinaWorld Bank Group Partnership Facility (CWPF). The objective of the CWPF is to assist developing member countries of the participating World Bank Group organizations in achieving inclusive and sustainable development. The report will be shared via TransFORM, the Transport Transformation and Innovation Knowledge Platform, jointly convened by the government of China and the World Bank to help make comprehensive transport safer, cleaner, and more affordable for development in China, while shar- ing Chinese experiences with development partners. xi About the Authors Richard Bullock has over 40 years of experience in the railway sector, covering costing and pricing, project analysis, railway restructuring, and regulatory issues. He has worked on over 50 railways worldwide, in every continent except North America, and has worked in China since 1987 . Before becoming an independent consultant, Mr. Bullock was a director of Travers Morgan Australia and, in addi- tion to the World Bank, has worked on projects for several other international institutions. He has worked on seven high-speed rail projects in China with the World Bank, as well as five outside China. Mr. Bullock has an MA in mathematics from Cambridge University and an MA in operational research from Brunel University. Martha Lawrence is the leader of the Railways Community of Practice at the World Bank and a team leader for the World Banks technical assistance and lending programs in China and India. She has over 30 years of experience in the railway sector, with extensive knowledge in railway restructuring, railway finance, and transport regulation. Ms. Lawrence led the development of the World Banks resource on railway reform, Railway Reform: A Toolkit for Improving Rail Sector Performance , and the report Attracting Capital for Rail Development in China. She has prepared business, restructuring, and financing plans for railways worldwide and advised private sector investors on over US$8 billion in structured lease financing of transit rolling stock and infrastructure. Ms. Lawrence has a BA in economics from Northwestern University and an MBA in fin
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