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Industrial Development Report 2020 Industrializing in the digital age Industrializing in the digital age Industrial Development Report 2020Industrializing in the digital age Industrial Development Report 2020Copyright 2019 United Nations Industrial Development Organization The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Designations such as “developed,” “developing,” “industrialized,” “frontrunner,” “follower,” “latecomer” and “laggard” are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the state reached by a particular country or area in the development process. The mention of firm names or commercial products does not imply endorsement by UNIDO. Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint. For reference and citation, please use: United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2019. Industrial Development Report 2020. Industrializing in the digital age. Vienna. UNIDO ID/449 Sales Number: E.20.II.B.49 ISBN: 978-92-1-106456-8 eISBN: 978-92-1-004602-2iii iii Contentsxii Forewordxiii Acknowledgementsxv Technical notes and abbreviationsxvi Glossary1 Overview Industrializing in the digital age1 Why should we care about new technologies?2 What are the new technologies shaping the industrial landscape?4 Who is creating, and who is using ADP technologies?10 What is needed to engage with ADP technologies?15 What dividends can ADP technologies deliver?22 What policy responses can make ADP technologies work for ISID?27 Notes Part A Industrializing in the digital age31 Chapter 1 Advanced digital production technologies and industrial development: A global perspective31 Linking industrialization to new technologies: Basic concepts37 The new technologies shaping the industrial landscape47 Characterizing the global landscape of ADP technologies55 New windows of opportunity? Catching up, stage-skipping and leapfrogging60 Manufacturing is still important62 Notes65 Chapter 2 The evolving landscape of industrialization under advanced digital production technologies65 ADP technologies and the structure of manufacturing75 ADP technologies and the “skills of the future”: Risks of digitalization82 ADP technologies and inclusive industrialization: Direct, indirect and net effects of the use of industrial robots87 NotesPageiv iv Contents89 Chapter 3 How manufacturing firms can absorb and exploit advanced digital production technologies90 ADP technologies: Whats in it for firms in developing countries?94 Field case studies: A qualitative approach99 A micro-level perspective based on surveys110 Getting the most out of it: Capabilities for industrializing in the digital age115 Notes117 Chapter 4 Responding to advanced digital production technologies118 Characterizing strategic responses to ADP technologies121 Basic elements of strategy design and development126 Fostering capabilities to adopt ADP technologies136 In sum139 Notes Part B Trends in industrial development indicators143 Chapter 5 Industrial trends143 Evolution of world manufacturing value added145 Evolution of world manufacturing exports148 Evolution of world manufacturing employment149 Evolution of the worlds manufacturing labour productivity152 Sectoral analysis of world manufacturing value added155 Chapter 6 The Competitive Industrial Performance Index155 The Competitive Industrial Performance Index155 Main results160 Results by geographical region and development stage162 Sustainable Development Goal 9165 Notes Annexes169 A.1 Producing the landscape of production and use of ADP technologies (Chapter 1)172 A.2 Knowledge-intensive business services and robots (Chapter 2)174 A.3 Surveys of the adoption of digital production technologies by industrial firms (Chapter 3)179 A.4 Summary of strategic responses to ADP technologies in 11 countries (Chapter 4)185 B.1 Rankings on the three dimensions of the Competitive Industrial Performance Index, by geographical regions190 B.2 Sustainable Development Goals and the Competitive Industrial Performance Index194 C.1 Country and economy groups196 C.2 Classification of manufacturing sectors by technology groupsPagev Contents197 References Boxes40 1.1 Automation and digitalization: From the first to the fourth industrial revolution42 1.2 Collaborating with the robots42 1.3 Manufacturing complex metal parts through 3D printing43 1.4 Using the Internet of Things for remote control of water treatment plants43 1.5 Improving the accuracy of rubber production through cloud computing and big data analytics47 1.6 Improving inclusiveness with new affordable solutions for marginalized groups59 1.7 Leapfrogging and leadership changes: Examples from the steel industry61 1.8 Leapfrogging to ADP technologies in steel production69 2.1 Fostering competitiveness through ADP technologies in South African machinery, equipment and electronics industry73 2.2 Entering global manufacturing through the provision of knowledge-intensive services76 2.3 Skills of the future for manufacturing119 4.1 Highly industrialized economies differ in their strategic stances for smart manufacturing124 4.2 Cooperation for a new digitalization strategy for Kazakhstan125 4.3 Sino-German cooperation for smart manufacturing128 4.4 Priorities for digitalization in Africa129 4.5 Digitalization as a prerequisite for smart manufacturing130 4.6 Nuevo Len 4.0: A regional initiative around smart manufacturing in Mexico131 4.7 Fostering the development and adoption of cloud computing in Zhejiang province132 4.8 Fostering SME participation in smart manufacturing: The C4i4 Lab in Pune, India133 4.9 Malaysias Industry4WRD Readiness Assessments135 4.10 Creative spaces can advance and democratize manufacturing development Figures2 1 New technologies and inclusive and sustainable industrial development3 2 Broad technological domains of the fourth industrial revolution4 3 Production technologies: From the first industrial revolution to the fourth5 4 Building blocks of ADP technologies7 5 Four generations of digital production technologies applied to manufacturing8 6 Adoption of ADP technologies is still limited among developing countries9 7 Rates of adoption of key ADP technologies differ across industries in Europe11 8 Engaging with ADP technologies requires increasing industrial capabilities14 9 Production capabilities are key for the adoption of technological process innovation15 10 Expected dividends from ADP technologies16 11 The adoption of ADP technologies is positively associated with productivity17 12 Economies active in ADP technologies grow faster than the rest, across all income groupsPagevi vi ContentsPage18 13 Manufacturing industries in economies actively engaging with ADP technologies are more integrated with KIBS, at all incomes18 14 Aggregate impact of the increase in industrial robot use in individual industries on world employment20 15 ADP technologies have above-average green content20 16 The majority of firms engaging or ready to engage with ADP technologies agree that these will lead to environmental improvements22 17 Female workers are more likely to face a higher computerization risk than men if they are employed in food, textiles and chemicals32 1.1 New technologies and ISID: A conceptual framework34 1.2 The rise of automobiles and personal computers in the United States: Consumption and production35 1.3 Economy-wide income creation by new industries: Automobiles and personal computers in the United States35 1.4 The global rise of electric vehicles: Projected sales to 204036 1.5 Larger investments in manufacturing research and development are associated with higher production efficiency36 1.6 From production efficiency to ISID38 1.7 Broad technological domains of the fourth industrial revolution39 1.8 Production technologies: From the first industrial revolution to the fourth41 1.9 Building blocks of ADP technologies44 1.10 Expected dividends from ADP technologies45 1.11 Main circular economy processes48 1.12 Patenting, exporting and importing of ADP technologies: Different roles but similar concentration of the top 50 economies49 1.13 Changes at the top with different indicators of patent, export and import activity in ADP technologies51 1.14 The production and use of ADP technologies are concentrated in a few frontrunners52 1.15 Engaging with ADP technologies requires increasing industrial capabilities53 1.16 Within income groups, economies actively engaging with ADP technologies show much greater industrial capabilities than the rest53 1.17 The production of ADP technologies takes off after 200554 1.18 Economies active in ADP technologies grow faster than the rest, across all income groups55 1.19 ADP technologies have above-average green content56 1.20 Four generations of digital production technologies applied to manufacturing production57 1.21 Leapfrogging in digital technologies for manufacturing production66 2.1 Rates of adoption of key ADP technologies differ across industries in Europe67 2.2 The adoption of key ADP technologies in manufacturing is positively associated with the share of TDI industries in MVA67 2.3 Economies actively engaging with ADP technologies tend to have a much larger share of TDI industries in MVA68 2.4 Within country income groups, economies actively engaging with ADP technologies also tend to have a much larger share of TDI industries in MVAvii ContentsPage69 2.5 The average share of TDI industries increased after 2005, especially for economies actively engaging with ADP technologies70 2.6 Shifts in the patterns of structural change before and after 2005 for selected industries by country income group71 2.7 Real MVA growth and its drivers: Employment and productivity73 2.8 Manufacturing increasingly relies on KIBS across all incomes74 2.9 Manufacturing industries in economies actively engaging with ADP technologies are more integrated with KIBS at all country group income levels74 2.10 KIBS are more integrated with TDI industries than average, especially in developing countries77 2.11 Women constitute the largest share of workers in textile and wood industries78 2.12 Female workers are more likely to face a higher computerization risk than men if they are employed in food, textiles and chemicals79 2.13 The risk of computerization declines with formal education for both male and female workers80 2.14 Women score lower than men on skills that may protect jobs from loss through computerization in manufacturing81 2.15 Women are underrepresented in managerial position in manufacturing81 2.16 A larger proportion of the female workforce is at high risk of job displacement from computerization in food, beverages and tobacco83 2.17 The stock of industrial robots doubled between 2000 and 201484 2.18 Aggregate impact of the increase in industrial robot use in individual industries on world employment85 2.19 Where were jobs created? Employment growth due to robots, by economy groups, 2000201485 2.20 Who created the jobs? Employment growth due to robots, by economy groups, 2000201485 2.21 Where were the jobs created? Employment growth due to robots, by sector, 2000201485 2.22 Who created the jobs? Employment growth due to robots, by sector, 2000201486 2.23 Computer, electrics and machinery and basic metals are the main creators of jobs due to automation100 3.1 Adoption of ADP technologies is still limited among developing countries101 3.2 Firms in TDI industries tend to adopt more ADP technologies101 3.3 Larger firms tend to adopt more ADP technologies102 3.4 Firms participating in GVCs are more likely to adopt ADP technologies103 3.5 The main obstacles to adopting ADP technologies reflect county-specific challenges104 3.6 Firms expect a marked increase in adopting ADP technologies in the next 5 to 10 years104 3.7 Many firms do not yet have plans available or in execution to achieve the highest technological generations in the next 5 to 10 years105 3.8 Few firms are ready to leapfrog to ADP technologies106 3.9 Firms in the forging ahead and catching up categories have a larger share of STEM employees106 3.10 Firms in the forging ahead and catching up categories have a higher female share of employees with STEM qualificationsviii viii ContentsPage107 3.11 Across sectors and sizes, firms adopting ADP technologies display higher productivity107 3.12 The adoption of ADP technologies is associated with productivity more strongly than other firm characteristics are109 3.13 Flexibility was the main motive of backshoring from emerging economies in 20132015109 3.14 The majority of firms in the forging ahead and catching up categories agree that ADP technologies will lead to environmental improvements110 3.15 The majority of firms in the forging ahead and catching up categories expect to increase or keep the same number of employees as they adopt ADP technologies110 3.16 The majority of firms in the forging ahead and catching up categories agree that soft skills are expected to be very important in future hiring111 3.17 Production capabilities are key for the adoption of technological process innovation113 3.18 Digital leaders show a better performance in terms of presence in TDI industries, export and employment generation119 4.1 Strategic responses reflect differences in manufacturing development across countries143 5.1 Annual growth rates of world MVA and GDP144 5.2 Share of MVA in world GDP144 5.3 Share in world MVA by economy group145 5.4 Share of the 12 largest manufacturing economies in world MVA146 5.5 World manufacturing exports growth by economy groups147 5.6 Manufacturing exports as a share of total exports by economy group147 5.7 Manufacturing exports as a share of total exports by economy group, with China separated147 5.8 Exports of medium- and high-technology goods as a share of total manufacturing exports by economy group148 5.9 Annual growth rates of world manufacturing employment and world total employment149 5.10 Share of manufacturing employment in world total employment149 5.11 Share in world manufacturing employment by economy group150 5.12 World labour productivity in manufacturing and in the entire economy151 5.13 Labour productivity in manufacturing relative to U.S. productivity by economy group151 5.14 Manufacturing labour productivity growth rates by economy group156 6.1 Dimensions of the CIP Index161 6.2 Scores and ranks of the top CIP performing economies in 2017171 A1.1 Characterization of economies: followers and latecomers Tables6 1 From laggards to frontrunners in the emerging technological landscape12 2 Accumulating investment, technol
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