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White PaperTransforming Rural Mobility in Japan and the WorldJanuary 2020In collaboration with McKinsey they include the lack of an established process to choose the best solutions by gathering the right set of data and simulating possible scenarios, as well as a lack of visibility on best practices globally.Public Transit Sustainability Index to reveal situation for municipalitiesThe World Economic Forum developed the Public Transit Sustainability Index in 2019 to support local governments to step up and reform their mobility systems. It provides transparency to remind of the urgency and to highlight key issues needing transformation. Indicators of profitability along rail, bus and taxi modes as well as future demand and supply forecasts provide an objective and forward-looking understanding of the sustainability of the current mobility system. For example, based on the Index, 74% of cities in Hiroshima Prefecture had mobility systems with low to mid sustainability,7reiterating the need for systemic transformation. The result is summarized in the White Paper in five distinct city archetypes requiring different solutions.Tailored solutions for each city archetypeNew mobility solutions, made possible by technological advances collectively known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, can present new transit solutions before they get stacked, operate more economically with less demand and offer more convenience for users.For that, local governments need to implement the right mobility solutions that fit each citys condition. The Forum developed DRIVER, a set of six guiding principles for rural mobility reform which, by matching them with a city archetype, can help cities automatically narrow their required directions of transformation.Lastly, a library of best practice cases presents sustainable mobility blueprints tailored to each city archetypes future needs along various mobility solutions. Examples of a taxi support model and autonomous vehicle shuttles show how best-fitting existing solutions, as well as emerging ones, can improve rural mobility and key conditions for introducing the solution.6 Transforming Rural Mobility in Japan and the WorldChapter 1: Ageing and declining populations are a risk to rural-mobility sustainabilityJapans declining demand for rural mobility places a serious economic strain on the mobility system. Consider that 85% of the countrys rural bus operators are below their break-even point.8Across 60% of rail lines in the Chugoku region, revenue covers less than 50% of the operating costs (Figure 1). As this low profitability is a structural problem caused by low population density, pushing rail operators to improve their operating efficiency would not address the core problem. Moreover, a declining population alone could reduce rural transit profitability by another 5-10% by 2040.91 Habitable area = total land size minus forests and ponds/lakesSources: Jun Umehara, 5 February 2018, “全国鉄道営業係数大公開” “Disclosure of operation ratio for rail lines nationwide”, Toyo Keizai; Statistics Bureau of Japan, 2019, “統計市区町村 2019”, “Statistical Observations of Municipalities 2019”, stat.go.jp/data/s-sugata/index.html 1,000 1,500 3,2502,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,5001,250-100%-90%-80%-70%7500-60%-30%10%-50%250-10%500-20%1,750 3,7500%20%-40%Operating profit rate Population density/habitable area1Inner-city railInter-city rail/commuter railCorrelation between population density and profitability of rail lines in Chugoku regionFigure 1: Profitability of rural rail lines roughly correlates with population densityWhile Japan has relatively higher rates of sustained population decrease and ageing, these phenomena are also highly relevant for other G20 countries. Many developed nations that subsidize public transit, such as the United States and in Europe, experience even worse profitability. Indeed, on average each transit mode in the United States operates at a deficit. Revenues from commuter buses and trains recover only 52.9% of their operating costs nationwide.10Naturally, the situation is worse in rural areas; in the United Kingdom, revenues cover 62% of rail line operating costs in England, 40% in Wales and 30% in Scotland.11Budgets for local bus service in non-metropolitan areas have fallen by 55% in the United Kingdom since 2012.12Demographic shifts are worsening the prognosis. The United Nations predicts that in the 2020s, the annual rate of decline in rural populations of G20 nations will increase from about 0.3% to 0.8% per year (Figure 2). This trend suggests that developed countries will need to focus more on rural mobility in the coming decade.7Transforming Rural Mobility in Japan and the WorldWhile this analysis focuses on rural mobility transformations using Japanese case studies, the findings are globally applicable. Rural and suburban regions with multiple layers of public transit share the same issues, and countries such as South Korea and those in Western Europe can benefit from the recommendations. In the United States and Australia, for example, relevant use cases appear in suburban areas instead of rural ones where the only transportation mode is private cars. ItalyRussiaSouthAfricaTurkeySaudiArabiaJapanChinaAustraliaSouth KoreaGermanyCanadaIndiaMexicoIndonesiaUnitedStatesFranceArgentinaBrazilUnitedKingdomAverage-0.3-1.3-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.5Compound average growth rate of rural population%/year; G20 countries2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030 Delta1000-1.31.0-0.5-0.40.70.60.60.6-0.1-0.2-0.3-1.0-0.3-2.3-0.9-0.5-1.1-0.9-0.3-1.6-0.2-1.4-1.2-0.1-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.7-1.3-0.7-2.6-1.2-0.8-1.3-1.1-0.80.1Figure 2: Rural populations in G20 countries are projected to decline1 The numbers in the Delta column have been rounded.Source: Based on information from the United Nations, DESA/Population Division, 2018, “World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, Online Edition”, population.un/wup/Download/8 Transforming Rural Mobility in Japan and the WorldChapter 2: What the Public Transit Sustainability Index reveals about rural mobility While most local governments understand the problems related to rural mobility, they have no well-established tools or processes to make informed, objective decisions on building transformation plans. To identify the most pressing challenges facing mobility, Hiroshima Prefecture was studied as a representative region. First, 23 cities and towns were surveyed there in September 2019, focusing on the challenges of their current mobility systems and the granularity of data to which they have access (Figure 3). As Question 1 of the survey shows, all respondents had a sense of urgency about the state of rural mobility, with 83% indicating the issue was “highly urgent”. The data suggests, however, that cities have not developed systematic processes to select the optimal solutions processes such as setting goals for the regions, gathering the right set of the necessary data or simulating solution options. A combined 44% of cities indicated in Question 2 that they have no line-level data for their privately-operated lines, and full bus stop-level data was available in only one municipality. Question 3 of the survey aimed to understand whether practices to support objective decision-making existed, but only one municipality had some form of benchmarking, and 63% of respondents did nothing. While this study focuses on Hiroshima Prefecture, the same situation plays out all over Japan.13Figure 3: Most municipalities surveyed lack data to make evidence-based decisions about rural mobility in HiroshimaHighly urgentUrgentN=18No accurate dataPrivately operated linesMunicipal linesTotal sum/ by operator By bus stopBy lineN=16N=11(No city/town chose neutral/not urgent/not at all)N=16Data benchmarkwith nearby citiesNo practiceExchangeinformationQuestion 1: Sense of urgencyQuestion 2: Data granularity of ridershipQuestion 3: Benchmark with similar cities% of responses 17 831995563 31 63625 50 60The governments Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) council on mobility is considering updating a scheme to design a regional mobility plan,14which would be a good trigger to define the required data set and to introduce more up-to-date scenario analyses and benchmarking practices into its mobility plan development processes. To address these mobility issues in Japan and around the world, the Public Transit Sustainability Index was developed. This new index, using mainly publicly available data, serves as a benchmark for districts to see how sustainable their mobility systems are and offers insight on what they need to do to become or remain economically sustainable.Key indicators of the Public Transit Sustainability Index The Index provides stakeholders with unbiased data that assists with comparing the current and projected future state of rural transit across five indicators. In addition, the Index provides a meaningful forward-looking perspective, as opposed to other public transit analyses that tend to focus only on the current situation.15The five indicators are divided across two categories: current profitability and future demand and supply. Current profitability looks at the financial performance of core public transit, namely trains, buses and taxis. Future population projections indicate future demand, and drivers average age represents supply (for more, see sidebars on current profitability metrics and future demand and supply metrics).Note: Total sum/by operator = total riders for all lines in the municipality/total operators in the municipality.Source: Authors, “公共交通利用支援状況関” Survey on the use and support of public transit, September 2019 (not published), made in 23 cities and towns in Hiroshima Prefecture (18 responses)9Transforming Rural Mobility in Japan and the WorldCurrent profitability metricsTrain cost proportion to revenue looks at the profitability of each train line as defined by the train operation ratio, or the cost of earning JPY 100. The cost of maintaining rail infrastructure is significant; in fact, the cost of earning a fixed fare will increase to five- to ten-times the revenue as the population declines.Bus subsidy shows the subsidy per rider. It includes the subsidy for lines within the city owned by private companies and the cost to outsource municipal bus lines, but not those that run between cities. The subsidy includes contributions from the central, prefectural and municipal government.Daily taxi income takes a regional view of whether daily drivers revenue exceeds their estimated daily expense. Because taxis generally do not receive strong government support, it is especially important that independent taxi operators are profitable. Future demand and supply metricsPopulation forecast projects demand. Since the demand for public transit is largely a function of the total population, the proportion of the total population by region in 2025 is compared with that of 2015.Driver availability indicates the average age of taxi drivers and how it has changed over the past 10 years to forecast the number of drivers. Many areas are already experiencing a shortage of drivers; low salaries and long hours have turned young people off to careers in rural mobility, a critical issue for government leaders to address. A score of 5 indicates a transit system is sustainable; a score below 2 means a system is in peril.Current profit-abilityFuture demand/supplyRail:Cost proportion to revenue (yen)5143251432514325143251432100400200300Bus:Subsidy/rider(yen)0500100300Taxi:Daily income(multiplier of cost)2.00.81.51.0Demand:Population forecast (%)100859590Supply: Driver availability (age)50655560Indicators andtheir IndexscoreDescriptionIndicator Scoring method Explanation for 2 to 3-score thresholdCost estimation to earn 100 yen by line (operation ratio)Develop city data by average of lines with stations in the city1JR Hokkaido specified lines “cannot maintain alone” and those lines have a 300-1,000 operation ratio“N/A” if rail does not existRange to have higher subsidy from governments compared to fare from ridersDaily income of taxi per vehicle2Define score by multiplier of estimated cost3Taxi usually does not have support within company or from governments, so whether revenue exceeds cost is the key criteriaRegions with a population decrease of more than 1% annually Regions with high average and rapid increase of drivers age would have large retirement with limited inflow, ending up with total decrease4Proportion of total population by region in 2025 compared to that of 2015Average age of taxi drivers in 2025 based on 2016-2017 data and its incremental change in the last 10 yearsAmount of subsidy from central, prefectural and local government for private bus operators and outsource fee of municipal bus lines, per user (excludes inter-city lines)1The weighted average by users is not used to clearly show the impact of lines with very high operation ratios. (The influence of those lines is extremely small in the weighted average by ridership as it has fewer users.)2Data by prefecture for regions without granular data.3Minimum wage used as a basis and cost estimated with the assumption that 73% accounts for labour cost and, within it, 75% is direct labour cost.4Major players put the retirement age at 60 or 65 while the Tokyo Taxi Association puts it at 75 for new owner-driven taxis, which means the majority of drivers above 60 years of age have around 10 years of service remaining. Sources: Jun Umehara, 5 February 2018, “全国鉄道営業係数大公開” “Disclosure of operation ratio for rail lines nationwide”, Toyo Keizai; Authors, “公共交通利用支援状況関” “Survey on the use and support of public transit”, September 2019 (not published); Japan Federation of Hire-Taxi Association, 2006, 2007 2016, 2017, “運転者賃金労働時間現況” “Current status of wages and working hours for taxi drivers”; MLIT, Chugoku District Transport Bureau, 2019, “運輸要覧” “Transportation Handbook”, tb.mlit.go.jp/chugoku/content/000040183.pdf.10 Transforming Rural Mobility in Japan and the WorldWhile robust, the data pool can be enriched going forward by four dimensional levers: depth, width, credibility and availability. a. Depth: Each indicator could benefit from more detail, such as origin-to-destination data by stop, to allow for in-depth analysis of concerned indicators. b. Width: The Index could provide another dimension of perspective with some potential indicators, such as mode share data (especially the percentage by private vehicles), to more accurately capture the size and trend of demand.c. Credibility: Cities need to collect data more consistently and not from a survey of only one to two days, or at least supplement it with other data sources, such as the GPS log from smartphones showing a persons daily journey. d. Availability: Data disclosure could be more inclusive; for
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