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Insight ReportCentral Bank Digital Currency PolicyMaker ToolkitJanuary 2020Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution World Economic Forum 9193 route de la Capite CH1223 Cologny/Geneva SwitzerlandTel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 Email: contactweforumweforum 2020 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Central Bank Digital Currency PolicyMaker ToolkitContentsForeword 4Executive summary 5Understanding central bank digital currency 8Toolkit 121. Background assessment and project management 142. Problem identification and analysis 153. CBDC form 164. Digital payments ecosystem and landscape evaluation 175. Hybrid CBDC evaluation 186. Operational risks and financial inclusion in retail CBDC 197. Data protections and compliance for retail CBDC 208. Evaluation of macroeconomic and financial risks and opportunities 219. CBDC design elements 2210. Technology choices, considerations and risks 2311. Governance 2412. Implementation strategy 25Contributors 26Acknowledgements 274 Central Bank Digital Currency PolicyMaker ToolkitForewordIn recent years, central bank digital currency (CBDC) has risen to prominence as a policy and operational consideration for central banks, ministries of finance and other institutions because of its potential to address both longstanding and new challenges such as financial inclusion and paymentsystem stability. CBDC is a digitized version of sovereign currency, created and issued by, and a liability of, the countrys monetary authority. CBDC differs from other forms of digital or virtual currencies, including cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and “stablecoins”, which are not issued by central banks or typically considered legal tender. Notably, CBDC may use centralized or decentralized technology systems, and policymakers should evaluate tradeoffs between technology choices before any CBDC issuance. Academic and policy research on CBDC has proliferated since 2014, as has technological experimentation. More recently, numerous central banks have been actively evaluating CBDC, spanning continents and economies both large and small, developed and emerging. The motivations for CBDC vary between countries, as does its relevance and potential for creating value. The “case for CBDC” is unresolved, with research and experiments from central banks and academic researchers indicating different assessments of a CBDCs value after considering costs and risks. Ultimately, countries should assess the value of CBDC on a casebycase basis, evaluating tradeoffs and carefully considering risks and design choices. Given the potentially farreaching consequences of CBDC, policymakers must apply the utmost prudence. While many central bank researchers and policymakers have developed an interest in CBDC over the past few years, most are not yet subjectmatter experts. Many research reports on CBDC provide indepth information and analysis of issues such as macroeconomic impact, financial stability, market infrastructure and design without providing as much information about social risks, governance or implementation strategies. Coupled with the evergrowing body of CBDC research from all corners of the world and the rapid speed of technological developments that relate to CBDC, researchers and policymakers stand to benefit from a concise framework that can help inform their exploration. The World Economic Forums CBDC PolicyMaker Toolkit seeks to address the need for a concise, highlevel CBDC decision framework that provides comprehensive and riskaware information to policymakers. The document serves as a guide to ensure that any CBDC deployment is cautious and fully considers alternative solutions, risks, deployment and governance strategies, multistakeholder input and other salient factors. Notably, it is intended to serve as a complement to additional research that any policymaker considering CBDC should conduct. In the development of this framework, the Forum has taken a global and multisector view, drawing input from its unique global community of CBDC experts and researchers, and developing an approach that is equally suitable for policymakers in developed or emerging economies. Furthermore, the toolkit can serve as a springboard to a community of practice and experience exchange within the World Economic Forum network as central banks progress with their CBDC investigation and development.Prior to crafting the CBDC PolicyMaker Toolkit, the Forum convened central bank researchers and policymakers from more than 45 countries to guide its project work related to central banks, CBDC and distributed ledger technology. It is from this input, as well as extensive discussion with additional experts, that the toolkit draws its motivation and content. Succinctly, this framework helps policymakers within central banks to confidently evaluate whether CBDC is appropriate for their economy. The CBDC PolicyMaker Toolkit is developed within the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolutions Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology Platform. It builds upon the platforms March 2019 white paper, which highlights central bank activity with blockchain technology as well as the platforms globally unique, curated list of more than 60 reports on CBDC research and experiments. Notably, the World Economic Forum does not advocate for or against the implementation of CBDC in any country. Ashley Lannquist, Project Lead Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology, World Economic Forum, USASheila Warren, Platform Head Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology, World Economic Forum, USARichard Samans, Managing Director, World Economic Forum, USA5Central Bank Digital Currency PolicyMaker ToolkitExecutive summaryIn recent years, central bank digital currency (CBDC), a new form of digitized sovereign currency, has risen to prominence as a policy and operational consideration for many central banks, ministries of finance and other institutions. The intricacies of implementing CBDC are complex and the implications are widereaching. As a result, policymakers may find themselves in uncharted waters when attempting to evaluate the potential benefits and tradeoffs associated with CBDC. The World Economic Forums CBDC PolicyMaker Toolkit seeks to address the need for a concise CBDC decision guide that provides comprehensive and riskaware information to policymakers. This document serves as a possible framework to ensure that any CBDC deployment fully considers the costs as well as the potential benefits, appraising a multitude of risks and evaluating deployment and governance strategies, alternative solutions and other salient factors. Notably, it is not exhaustive, and instead intends to serve as a complement to additional research that any policymaker considering CBDC should conduct. The CBDC PolicyMaker Toolkit provides highlevel guidance and information for: Retail, wholesale, crossborder CBDC and alternatives in private money such as “hybrid CBDC” Large, small, emerging and developed countries.This toolkit will walk policymakers through a CBDC evaluation and design process stepbystep, emphasizing the incorporation of multistakeholder input. The flow chart on page 13 of this document illustrates the steps in this process. Section 1: The process begins with background assessment and preanalysis, including consideration of strategic questions related to legal and institutional challenges, project management, decisionmaking and stakeholder involvement. Sections 2 and 3: The process continues with problem identification and analysis, including identification of the top CBDC objectives and goals. It results in the initial selection of the most appropriate form of CBDC. Sections 4 and 5: The context for the digital payments ecosystem is outlined, highlighting relevant issues. The policymaker is then prepared to evaluate “hybrid CBDC” as a potential alternative to retail CBDC if relevant. Sections 6, 7 and 8: The potential benefits and risks are considered, including the operational and cybersecurity risks, cost and accessibility, user data protection and privacy, compliance and macroeconomic and financial impacts. Section 9: CBDC design parameters are then assessed in light of identified objectives and risks, including custody and storage, anonymity, account and transaction limits, interest payments, and conversion and redemption rates. Section 10: Following design, the process focuses on technology choices and requirements to support the CBDC. Section 11: The process continues with an evaluation of governance strategies and requirements, including user engagement, financial management, the establishment of performance criteria and monitoring processes. Section 12: The toolkit concludes with an initial implementation strategy, including guidance on experimentation and prototyping, public engagement and collaboration in experimentation and deployment.As policymakers navigate this process, they should consider how CBDC may introduce new capabilities that support regulatory goals while also introducing new risks or compliance vulnerabilities. CBDC could potentially be used as a tool to achieve policy objectives such as improved safety and resilience in payments systems; increased efficiency, access and competitiveness of payments systems; better data transmission and reporting to central banks; and financial inclusion. The achievement of these goals with CBDC must be evaluated in the full context of the associated tradeoffs and risks that CBDC may entail. 6 Central Bank Digital Currency PolicyMaker ToolkitA brief summary of the cost/benefit analysis facilitated by the toolkit follows:Key opportunities Key challenges or alternative solutionsWholesale CBDCCould improve efficiency in speed and costs for crossborder interbank payments (potential to bypass correspondent banking systems and challenges related to legacy infrastructure, intermediary operating hours or cutoff times, and other interbank processes).Considering risks associated with CBDC, central banks should determine how frictions can already be addressed, such as by extending central bank and processor operating hours and establishing clear data messaging standards and governance.Could reduce settlement and counterparty risks and enable deliveryversuspayment (DvP) or paymentversuspayment (PvP) in crossborder interbank securities transactions and funds transfers. Programmable nature of wholesale CBDC could also apply to other use cases (e.g. within financial market infrastructure). Domestic wholesale CBDC may not add value in domestic interbank payments where an efficient system already exists (domestic wholesale CBDC is arguably equivalent to central bank reserves).Retail CBDCPotential to provide efficient crossborder retail transactions (reduced cost and speed) for users. Where an efficient domestic retail payment system exists, domestic retail CBDC may not add value net of risks and downsides. Potential to improve financial data transmission and reporting to central banks; improve traceability of payments relative to physical cash (e.g. to reduce illicit activity); reduce costs and frictions associated with cash management.Requires heavy investment in cybersecurity and system resilience. Can serve as a counterweight to market power of private payment service providers, increasing competition in the payments market and providing a stable public option for payment services.Existing alternatives, most notably regulation of payment service providers, should be considered to assess relative attractiveness of CBDC. Can provide access to central bank money in an economy where cash usage or availability is declining (e.g. with the rise of digital payments)pared to physical cash, risks from counterfeiting, theft and network failure for digital money entail more catastrophic consequences. If retail CBDC is widely used, a system failure would cause substantial interruptions.Can provide safehaven public option for savings, with lower risk of default than storing savings with commercial banks.Where a strong deposit insurance system is already in place, retail CBDC would probably not provide added value in terms of offering a safehaven option for retail savings.Can challenge commercial banks market power over retail deposits, pressuring banks to increase interest rates and offer better financial services to depositors. Generates substantial financial risks, including: 1) bank disintermediation risk, which could reduce bank profits and lending activity; 2) digitalbankrun risk as depositors may rapidly convert commercial bank deposits to CBDC.Can potentially improve monetary policy transmission and effectiveness depending on interest rate policies (research indicates mixed value for monetary policy goals alone). Necessary to consider existing alternatives such as negative nominal interest rates on reserves or fiscal policy measures such as tax rebates aimed at subsidizing households. Potential to support financial inclusion goals. Financial exclusion could arise if the issuing central bank does not take special care to ensure the CBDC is widely accessible within the country. Can support continued usage of the domestic currency if de facto dollarization or competition from other currencies, including digital currencies, cryptocurrencies or foreigncountry CBDC, emerges. Retail CBDC accounts of all forms could be a significant target for theft and terrorism. If retail or “hybrid CBDC” is used widely, the monetary authority must design and implement strict user data storage and privacy policies and protections. 7Central Bank Digital Currency PolicyMaker Toolkit“Hybrid CBDC”Alternative to CBDC and regulation in addressing paymentsystem stability and market power risks from widely adopted digital payment providers: e.g. central banks can enforce stronger reserve management policies and oversight.Outstanding regulatory and policy considerations to be resolved. Does not constitute claim on central bank in case of issuer default. Allows central bank to support provision of electronic money with safeguards and protections for user funds. May have impacts on seigniorage that need to be carefully considered. Relative to retail CBDC, could probably be implemented more rapidly and enable central bank to focus on core competencies such as transaction settlement rather than a full suite of retail CBDC components and requirements.Might not offer significant value relative to twotiered CBDC system or the current system of payment intermediaries.DLT based CBDC (retail or wholesale)Potential for lowercost interconnectivity or interoperability for CBDC with retail payment providers and infrastructure.Implementation o
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