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RENEWABLE ENERGY IN HYBRID MINI-GRIDS AND ISOLATED GRIDS: ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND BUSINESS CASESSponsored and supported by: 2DisclaimerFrankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate and Sustainable Energy Finance, 2015. Renewable energy in hybrid mini grids and isolated grids: Economic benefits and business cases. Copyright Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH 2015.This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, as long as provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Frankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH.DisclaimerFrankfurt School of Finance & Management: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Moreover, the views expressed do not necessarily represent the decision or the stated policy of the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, nor does citing of trade names or commercial processes constitute endorsement.Cover photo reproduced with the permission of the Frankfurt School UNEP Centre.3TABLE OF CONTENTSOVERVIEW 8 1. INTRODUCTION 12 1.1. Basis of decision making 12 1.2. Technology selection 15 1.3. Technical and financial modelling 15 2. SELECTED SITES 18 2.1. Puerto Leguizamo Colombia 19 2.2. Las Terrenas Dominican Republic 20 2.3. Bequia St. Vincent & the Grenadines 21 2.4. Nusa Penida Indonesia 22 2.5. Busuanga Philippines 23 2.6. Hola Kenya 24 2.7. Basse Santa Su Gambia 26 3. HYBRIDISATION: POTENTIAL AND BENEFITS 28 3.1. Status quo: Current demand and supply 28 3.2. Solar radiation and seasonality 31 3.3. Demand and PV-generation potential 33 3.4. Demand growth and expansion options 37 4. ECONOMIC VIABILITY ASSESSMENT 42 4.1. Approach and assumptions 42 4.1.1. Investment needs and cost structure 42 4.1.2. Hybrid LCOE = weighted diesel/PV LCOE? 43 4.1.3. Financial assumptions 45 4.1.4. Diesel price assumptions 45 4.2. Levelised cost of electricity Base case 46 4.3. Relevance of plant size, solar radiation and diesel prices 49 4.4. Sensitivity analysis 51 4.4.1. Impact of diesel price development 51 4.4.2. Impact of financing costs 55 4.4.3. Impact of achieved PV penetration level 59 4.4.4. Impact of CAPEX and OPEX changes 59 4.4.5. Summary of sensitivities 61 4.4.6. Impact of demand growth 61 5. FINANCIAL VIABILITY ASSESSMENT 64 5.1. Ownership structures 66 5.2. Cash flow analysis no-growth case 66 5.3. Cash flow analysis growth case 68 6. CONCLUSIONS 70ANNEXES 74 Annex 1: Glossary 74 Annex 2: Technical fact sheets 78 Annex 3: Technical assumptions 86 Annex 4: Assumptions for growth and technical upgrades 88TABLE OF CONTENTS 4ABBREVIATIONSAFD Agence Francaise de Developpement BISELCO Busuanga Island Electric Cooperative CAPEX Capital Expenditures CERs Certified Emission Reductions CDM Clean Development Mechanism CEDENAR Electricity Company of Narino CEET Compagnie dEnergie Electrique du Togo CIPC Calamian Islands Power Corporation DFI Development Finance Institution DSCR Debt Service Cover Ratio DSRA Debt Service Reserve Account EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration EIRR Equity Internal Rate of Return EMPULEG Public Utility Company of Leguizamo FI Financial Institution FiT Feed-in-Tariff HFO Heavy Fuel Oil HOMER Hybrid Optimisation of Multiple Energy Resources IEA International Energy Agency IFI International Financial Institution IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency IRR Internal Rate of Return IPP Independent Power Producer KPLC Kenya Power and Lighting Company kW Kilo Watt LCOE Levelised Cost Of Electricity MW Mega Watt NAWEC National Water and Electricity Company of The Gambia NPC National Power Corporation, the Philippines NPV Net Present Value NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the US Department of Energy O&M Operation & Maintenance OPEX Operational Expenditures PLN Perusahaan Listrik Negara (State Electricity Company of Indonesia) PV Photovoltaic RE Renewable Energy SENI National Electric Interconnected Grid System in the Dominican Republic SIN National Electricity Grid of Colombia SPV Special Purpose Vehicle SVG St. Vincent and the Grenadines UNEP United Nations Environment Programme VINLEC St. Vincent Electricity Services WACC Weighted Average Costs of Capital ZNI Non-grid Connected Areas in ColombiaABBREVIATIONS5AUTHORSAUTHORSThis study was prepared by Hirak Al-Hammad, Torsten Becker, Andrea Bode, Srishti Gupta and Silvia Kreibiehl at the Frankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate and Sustainable Energy Finance.6ACK NOWLEDGEMENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis study was commissioned by the United Nations Environment Programmes Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (UNEP DTIE), in coopera-tion with Siemens and the International Renewa-ble Energy Agency (IRENA). We would like to thank in particular Nicoletta Heilsberger, Matteo della Volta and Torsten Wetzel from Siemens; Stefanie Held, Jeffrey Skeer, Emanuele Taibi, Michael Taylor, and Mohamed Youba Sokona from IRENA; and Roberto Borjabad, Dean Cooper, Kornelia Guse, Mark Radka and Merlyn Van Voore from UNEP for their unwavering support and vital inputs. A special thanks to Siemens, whose technical ex-pertise enhanced the financial analysis provided by the Frankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Centre. This study would not have been possible had it not been for the utilities and other stakeholders at the selected sites, providing all required in-formation and input data (particularly BISELCO, CEDENAR, CIPC, EMPULEG, IPSE, KPLC, NAWEC, NPC, PLN, and VINLEC) and the experts collecting this data, and supporting the Frankfurt School UNEP Centre with the actual analysis (Unai Arrieta, Philipp Blechinger, Alan Dale Gonzales, Rebecca Gunning, Tobias Panofen, Komang Pribadiana, Mauricio Solano and Bernardo Tadeo). Thanks also to Professor Dr. Michael Klein and Professor Dr. Ulf Moslener for their invaluable in-puts during the compilation of the study; Jiwan Acharya, Jim Cohen and Achim Neumann for their peer review and critical comments; Pierre Knoche who supported this work as part of his studies at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management; and last but not least our advisory board that helped putting this work in a broader context: Philipp Gaggl, Steve Lindenberg, Peter Storey, Patrick Theuret, and Marcus Wiemann.This was indeed a worthy exercise, and we at the Frankfurt School UNEP Centre hope that this re-search can be used as a reference point for mini-grid work in the future. We also hope that these results generate interest that can cascade into a great success in the provision of clean and reliable energy for those living in rural areas. 7FOREWORDFOREWORD“The distribution of renewable power on hybrid mini-grids rep-resents an excellent opportunity for islands and isolated commu-nities to displace cost-ly diesel fuel, boost energy security, contribute to emissions reduction and lower electricity costs. This report illustrates the potential cost savings achievable from hybrid mini-grids in seven differ-ent countries spanning Africa, Asia and Latin America. It provides further evidence of the in-creasing economic viability of renewable energy globally.” Adnan Z. Amin, Director General, International Renewable Energy Agency“Clean Energy Mini-Grids have the poten-tial to increase energy access, renewable en-ergy use and energy efficiency in develop-ing countries. As such, they are a priority for the UNs decade-long Sus-tainable Energy for All initiative. This report uses public and private sector experience to show that clean fuel for such isolated grids can be cost-effec-tive for suppliers, though remaining affordable to the targeted communities. It marks the start of a shift to decentralised electrification worldwide us-ing local clean energy supplies to protect the local environment and improve local peoples lives”.Achim Steiner, United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme“Public infrastructure investments can come along with significant capital cost require-ments especially if private financiers are involved. This also applies to the hybridization of decentralized elec-tricity grids in the developing world. While the environmental benefit of renewable energies is non-controversial, they are still relatively capital intensive compared to diesel generation capacity. Besides fuel consumption, return on equity and in-terest on debt can possibly account for a bigger part of electricity generation costs. This study con-tributes to the very topical discussions on the af-fordability of climate change mitigation, the chal-lenges in crowding-in the private sector, as well as the needs for continuous donor activities and technical assistance on-site. It is part of Frankfurt Schools endeavor to advocate green energy without neglecting market realities and real economic costs.”Udo Steffens, President & CEO, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management“To ensure that global energy systems satisfy the need for reliabil-ity, affordability and climate compatibility in the future, it will be critically important to combine and integrate the right technologies. As a globally active company, its our responsibility to use our know-how and competence in developing and implementing new products and solutions, and to serve as a consultant in nearly all energy markets, for just this purpose. By exploring various approaches and analyzing their cost-effectiveness in developing sustainable solutions, this study is a valuable contribution to discussions on how to create tomorrows energy systems.” Lisa Davis, Member of the Managing Board, Siemens AG8OVERVIEWRenewable power has significant potential to reduce the cost of electricity in rural and island settings across the developing world. In areas distant from main power grids, regional isolated grids - often referred to as mini-grids - are often the main source of electricity to industry and households. Electricity generation usually relies on diesel fuel, often imported over long distances. Yet generating costs can be reduced by hybridising these mini-grids with solar photovoltaic (PV) or other renewable power sources. On the basis of seven case studies in as many countries, this report finds that hybridisation can reduce average generation costs at five of the seven sites (from 0.3 to 8 percent) - even assuming private-sector financing terms and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) mid-case scenario for oil prices. If financed with public funds at a 5 percent real discount rate, hybrid mini-grids can achieve cost reductions at all seven sites of 12 to 16 percent, with PV generation at the sites providing 31 to 40 percent of total electricity. Hybrid generating costs in this scenario represent a weighted average of diesel-only generating costs, which range from 31 to 44 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour, and PV generating costs, which range from 16 to 23 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour. Increasing numbers of isolated grids are operated by independent power producers (IPP) under concession, and it is expected that hybridisation projects, which are characterised by a higher capital intensity than diesel-only plants, require further private sector involvement, in particular to ensure access to financing. Financial viability, i.e. the attractiveness of a hybridisation project from the perspective of equity investors and commercial lenders, depends on the terms and conditions of the existing or new power purchase agreement (PPA). In most cases, no such framework exists for hybridisation, and IPPs cannot change the generation technology under the existing PPA. Where projects are economically viable, this study finds that the regulator and/or government needs to initiate the hybrid project and to set up a suitable PPA framework. Accordingly, it assesses the economic viability of renewable-based hybridisation of existing - so-called brownfield - diesel grids and provides recommendations on how economic viability can be translated into financial viability. It thereby considers two options regarding operational set-up: first, government-led investment with operation by the utility; and second, the outsourcing of operation and investment to the private sector.This study aims to add value to the ongoing discourse by showcasing concrete examples and highlighting the differences between real-world isolated grids. The analysed projects include three physical islands (Bequia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines; Nusa Penida, Indonesia; Busuanga, the Philippines) and four remote locations that amount to “virtual islands” (Puerto Leguizamo, Colombia; Las Terrenas, Dominican Republic; Hola, Kenya; Basse Santa Su, The Gambia) far from national or other regional power grids. They were deliberately chosen to take into account the heterogeneity and complexity of remote areas in different parts of the world. The sites represent a variety of grid sizes, number and type of customers, diesel costs, and isolation levels - all factors that can affect the technical solution as well as the economic and financial viability of the hybrid mini-grid investment. The installed diesel generation capacity ranges from 0.8 MW in Hola to 9.5 MW in Las Terrenas. The number of customers (grid connection points) ranges from 1,700 in Hola to 13,000 in Nusa Penida. The type of customers can be classified into residential (at most sites), commercial, and public categories, whereas a larger anchor customer plays a particularly important role in Puerto Leguizamo. Yet, in order to ensure a certain replication potential, the sites were selected to be representative within their respective countries and regions. Although this study does not include purely industrial sites, the results still imply potential for PV hybridisation. Such sites are characterised OVERVIEW9OVERVIEWinvestment (and replacement) costs. To combine the diesel and PV electricity, technical components for system integration are required as well. The average electricity generation costs (so-called levelised cost of electricity, or LCOE) of a hybrid system are a combination of PV and diesel LCOEs weighted with their share in the total output plus a cost component for system integration.Since PV accounts for only about one third of total generation, the full comparative advantage of the PV
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