资源描述
MARKETVIEW Japan Investment, Q4 2020 JAPAN INVESTMENT Investment volume *1 Q4 2020 (JPY, bn) y-o-y (%) Total 1,204 8% Domestic (J-REITs) 493 87% Domestic (Others) 397 24% Overseas 314 41% Expected NOI Yield *2 Dec. 2020 (%) q-o-q (bps) Office (Otemachi, Tokyo) 3.35 0 Retail (Tokyo Ginza Chuo-Dori) 3.40 5 Industrial (Tokyo bay area) 4.23 7 CBRE Tankan Survey *3 Grade A Office Logistics facilities (multi-tenant) Sales prices 14 ( 9) 51 ( 16) Expected yield 11 ( 8) 29 ( 4) Lending attitude of financial institutions 1 ( 2) 29 ( 9) Stance on investment and loans 11 ( 2) 32 ( 2) Figure 1: Quick Stats Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. | 1 *1 Transaction volume covers deals worth JPY 1.0 billion or more, excluding land transactions and property acquisitions at the time of J-REIT IPO *2 Expected yields are based on investor survey, calculated as the average of the median of upper/lower value on a NOI basis. Surveys started in July 2003 for offices and residential; and in January 2009 for retail, hotels, and industrial. *3 CBRE Tankan Survey (DI = Diffusion index) subtracts the ratio (%) of respondents that expected a contraction (fall) from the ratio (%) of respondents that expected an expansion (rise). Values in parentheses are q-o-q comparisons. Units are percentage points Source: CBRE, Q4 2020. EXPECTED NOI YIELD Dec. 2020 3.35% ( 0bps q-o-q, Otemachi Office) +7.6% y-o-y Total Value of Investment Q4 10 YEAR JGB YIELD at the end of Dec. 2020 0.021% (+0.05bps q-o-q ) 2020 Volume Up 5.2% y-o-y , Driven by 30% Rise in Investment by Foreigners Q4 2020 TRANSACTION VOLUME UP 7.6% Y-O-Y Commercial real estate transaction volume (Figures 1 and 2) was up 7.6% y-o-y at JPY 1.2 trillion in Q4 2020. Purchasing was led by J- REITs, for which investment volume recorded an 87% y-o-y rise during the period at JPY 493.0 billion. Investment by overseas investors fell to JPY 314.0 billion, a 41% drop from the same period of 2019, when several large-scale deals were completed. Due to a 60% y-o-y increase recorded in Q1 2020 and the y-o-y increase recorded this quarter, total transaction volume for 2020 reached JPY 3.8 trillion, up 5.2% from 2019. Investment by overseas investors was up 30% y-o-y. J-REIT investment volume increased by 2% y-o-y over the same period, while volume by other domestic investors fell by 15% y-o-y. INVESTMENT DRIVEN BY J-REIT OFFICE AND LOGISTICS PURCHASES Public equity offerings in Q4 by J-REITs totaled seven, raising JPY 276 billion in total, up 81% y-o-y. 48% of this was raised by logistics REITs (with four offerings), and 46% by an office REIT (one offering). As a result, purchasing activity by J-REITs this quarter was driven by the logistics sector, with investment for this asset class rising by 93% y-o-y to JPY 153.0 billion, and the office sector, which was up 39% y-o-y rise at JPY 278.0 billion (Figure 4). Logistics REITs, buoyed by stable share prices throughout the year, have underpinned J-REIT investment over the last 12 monthsMARKETVIEW Figure 2: Major Transaction Volume By Investor Type EXPECTED YIELDS FOR LOGISTICS FALL TO NEW LOW The most recent quarterly cap rate survey c o n d u c t e db yC B R E( F i g u r e s1 ,3a n d5 )f o u n d that expected yields in Tokyo fell q-o-q for logistics facilities (multi-tenant) and residential apartments (single), reaching new record lows. Offices (Otemachi) and residential apartments (family-type) were unchanged q-o-q, while retail (Ginza Chuo-dori) and hotels (management contract) registered increases from the previous survey. Expected yields for hotels reached 5% for the first time since 2016. CBREs latest Tankan Survey revealed that the diffusion index (DI, Figures 1 and 6) for Tokyo Grade A office buildings worsened from the previous quarter in the category of “investment and lending attitudes” but improved in all other categories. The DI for logistics facilities (LMT- type in the Greater Tokyo area) also improved in all categories other than “vacancy rate”. SOME TENDERS DELAYED DUE TO SECOND EMERGENCY DECLARATION IN JANUARY A second state of emergency was declared by the central government for four prefectures on January 7th, and later extended to cover a total of 11 prefectures on January 13th. The impact of the declaration on investment activity emerged from mid-January. Some investors have postponed bids for certain deals until after the state of emergency is lifted. However, these deals were relatively small in scale, and few cases in which negotiations had already begun during or prior to Q4 2020 are thought to be affected. As such, the impact of these delays on Q1 2021 transaction volume should be limited. 2 JAPAN INVESTMENT 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Domestic (J-REITs) Domestic (Others) Overseas (JPY bn) Transactions of at least JPY 1bn, excluding acquisitions by J-REITs at IPO. Source : RCA, CBRE, Q4 2020. Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. | 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Office Retail Industrial Residential Hotel Others Other : Healthcare and Data Centre Source : CBRE, Q4 2020. 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Office (Otemachi, Tokyo) Studio-type apartment (Tokyo 5 wards) Multi-family Residential (Tokyo South, Tokyo East) Industrial (Tokyo bay area) Retail (Tokyo Ginza Chuo-Dori) Hotel (Tokyo 5 wards, management contract) * Note: Average figure of the median of lowest/highest yield each. Source: CBRE Cap Rate Survey, Q4 2020. Figure 3: Expected NOI Yield Figure 4: J-REIT Deals By Asset TypeMARKETVIEW INVESTOR APPETITE REMAINS ROBUST Investment appetite among Japanese investors is anticipated to remain strong in 2021. CBREs latest investor survey conducted in November 2020 found that 87% of investors anticipate their acquisition volume in 2021 to either match or exceed that in the previous year, a similar figure to the 90% recorded in the same survey conducted in December 2019. Foreign investors, whose acquisition volume in 2020 rose by 30% y- o-y, are also expected to be active purchasers in 2021. The major factor behind this is the continuation of monetary easing policies worldwide, which is prompting institutional investors to channel their funds into relatively high-yielding real estate assets. Responses to CBREs survey of Asia Pacific investors revealed that over 70% of those surveyed intend to increase their outbound investment volume this year, with Tokyo chosen as the most attractive investment property location in APAC for the second consecutive year. LOGISTICS AND RESIDENTIAL YIELDS CONTINUE TO FALL Offices turned out to be the most popular asset class for investors in 2020, accounting for 38% of all real estate transaction volume over the year. This was followed by logistics facilities at 27%, which was the highest figure recorded for this asset type since surveys began in 2005, and residential properties at 18%. These same asset types are projected to continue to find favour with investors in 2021. CBREs surveys indicate that the asset types investors intend to choose in 2021 are, in order of preference, logistics facilities, offices, and residential properties. Among these, logistics facilities and residential properties may see transactional yields fall still further. In 2020, transactional yields dropped to close to 4% for logistics facilities in regional cities, while some metropolitan housing deals saw yields of below 3.5%. INVESTORS EYE REGIONAL OFFICE MARKETS Relatively few Tokyo office deals were concluded in 2020, and none implied any cap rate decompression. However, the ongoing impact of measures to contain the pandemic is likely to result in a weakening of office leasing demand and a consequent lowering of rents. Interest from investors has therefore been waning, increasing the possibility that transactional yields for office may rise in the coming quarters. In contrast, the rise in vacancy rates in regional cities has been moderate in comparison to Tokyo, with rental declines forecasted to be less significant. Reasons for this disparity include a relatively fewer new office supply, as well as the fact that many offices in regional areas tend to be comparatively smaller than those in Tokyo, meaning that downsizing floor space is less likely to be an option for tenants. With few properties available in Tokyo, an increasing number of investors may identify relatively stable regional city markets as an investment opportunity. 3 JAPAN INVESTMENT Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. MARKETVIEW Figure 5: Expected NOI Yield Figure 6: CBRE Tankan Survey (DI) Figure 7: Selected Major Transactions 4 JAPAN INVESTMENT Date *1 Building Name Location Sector Seller Buyer Approximate Price *2 (JPY Million) Price per Tsubo *2 (JPY Thousand) Cap Rate (%) Jan-21 Shinjuku Mitsui Building Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo Office Mitsui Fudosan Nippon Building Fund 170,000 5,550 4.2 Dec-20 Portfolio Tokyo and others Bulk/Mixed PAG Investment Management Blackstone Group 110,000 N/A N/A Dec-20 Portfolio Tokyo Residential N/A AXA Investment Managers - Real Assets 70,000 N/A N/A Jan-21 Gran Tokyo South Tower (co-ownership interest 13%) Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Office Mitsui Fudosan Nippon Building Fund 47,000 14,182 3.0 Dec-20 GLP Yokohama (co-ownership interest 60%) Tokohana-shi, Kanagawa Industrial Blue Logistics 3 GK GLP J-REIT 24,272 1,403 4.1 Nov-20 Data Centor Koto-ku,Tokyo Others N/A AXA Investment Managers - Real Assets 22,000 N/A N/A Dec-20 GLP Sayama Hidaka II Hidaka-shi, Saitama Industrial Blue Logistics 5 GK GLP J-REIT 21,630 944 4.5 Oct-20 Portfolio Tokyo Residential Straits Trading N/A 18,949 N/A N/A Dec-20 GLP Urayasu II Urayasu-shi, Chiba Industrial SMFL MIRAI Partners GLP J-REIT 16,885 1,183 4.2 Dec-20 SOSiLA Ebina Ebina-shi, Kanagawa Industrial Sumitomo Corporation SOSiLA Logistics 14,694 1,155 4.4 Tokyo Dec. 2020 (%) q-o-q (bps) Office (Otemachi, Tokyo) 3.35 0 Studio-type apartment (Tokyo 5 wards) 4.08 5 Multi-family Residential (Tokyo South, Tokyo East) 4.20 0 Industrial (Tokyo bay area) 4.23 7 Retail (Tokyo Ginza Chuo-Dori) 3.40 5 Hotel (Tokyo 5 wards, management contract) 5.03 5 Office in regional cities Dec. 2020 (%) q-o-q (bps) Osaka 4.60 4 Nagoya 5.00 0 Sapporo 5.15 0 Sendai 5.33 2 Hiroshima 5.50 1 Fukuoka 4.75 5 Expected yields are based on investor survey, calculated as the average of the median of upper/lower value on a NOI basis. Surveys started in July 2003 for offices and residential; and in January 2009 for retail, hotels, and industrial. Source: CBRE, Q4 2020. *1 Data of announcement or contract. *2 Including shares of properties. Sources : Information disclosed by companies and information by RCA, media and others, compiled by CBRE, Q4 2020. Tokyo Grade A office buildings Dec. 2020 q-o-q (point) 1) Real estate trading volume 16 11 2) Sales prices 14 9 3) NOI (Net Operating Income) 20 5 4) Expected yield 11 8 5) Lending attitude of financial institutions 1 2 6) Stance on investment and loans 11 2 Logistics facilities (Greater Tokyo, multi-tenant type) Dec. 2020 q-o-q (point) 1) Real estate trading volume 36 15 2) Sales prices 51 16 3) Rent 42 2 4) Vacancy rate 13 3 5) Expected yield 29 4 6) Lending attitude of financial institutions 29 9 7) Stance on investment and loans 32 2 Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2021 CBRE, Inc. | CBRE Tankan Survey (DI = Diffusion index) subtracts the ratio (%) of respondents that expected a contraction (fall) from the ratio (%) of respondents that expected an “expansion (rise).” Expected yield ID subtracts the ratio (%) of respondents that expected a “rise from the ratio (%) of respondents that expected an “fall.” Values in parentheses are q-o-q comparisons. Units are percentage points. Source: CBRE, Q4 2020MARKETVIEW Disclaimer: All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS JAPAN INVESTMENT MARKETVIEW, PLEASE CONTACT JAPAN RESEARCH Hiroshi Okubo Head of Research hiroshi.okubocbre.co.jp Asuka Honda Director asuka.hondacbre.co.jp To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at CBRE OFFICES IN JAPAN TOKYO Meiji Yasuda Seimei Building 2-1-1 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo SHIBA PARK Shiba Park Building B 2-4-1 Shibakoen, Minato-ku, Tokyo OSAKA Grand Front Osaka 4-20, Ofuka-cho, Kita-ku, Osaka SAPPORO Hokkaido Building 4-1 Kitanijonishi, Chuo-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido SENDAI Sendai Mark One 1-2-3 Chuo, Aoba-ku, Sendai-shi, Miyagi YOKOHAMA Yokohama ST Building 1-11-15 Kitasaiwai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa KANAZAWA Aube II Building 5-177 Kuratsuki, Kanazawa-shi, Ishikawa NAGOYA Miyuki Building 3-20-27 Nishiki, Naka-ku, Nagoya-shi, Aichi HIROSHIMA Shishinyo Building 3-17 Fukuromachi, Naka-ku, Hiroshima-shi, Hiroshima FUKUOKA Fukuoka Center Building 2-2-1 Hakata-Ekimae, Hakata-ku, Fukuoka-shi, Fukuoka JAPAN INVESTMENT
展开阅读全文