2020年住房租赁年度报告.pdf

PPT Tospur Real Estate Consulting Co., Ltd. Professional Sincere 2020PPT 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020 2020PPT 2020 2020 2021 3 5 1 1 9 66 1 17 1.49 3 4 10 5 5 5 3 (REITs) REITs 5 11 6 1900 3 80 5 28 REITs 2 ( REITs) 3.26 7 9 6 12 5 40 7 1 7 2 7 6 7 24 8 16 24 9 7 11 12 10 10 29 11 10 11 26 12 18 6PPT 2020PPT .01PPT 2015 2015 2019 2020PPT 2019 2020 2021 2020.09. 07 2019.09. 19 2020.12. 21 2019.12. 13 2018.09. 20 2021 2020 2 12 : ; 2020 3 15 ; 2020 8 10 ( ) 2020 6 30 ; 2020 9 1 2020 12 9 2020 7 17 ( ) 2020 9 1 2020 1 9 2020 7 6 ( ) ( ) : ; ; 2020PPT 2019 2020 2019 2020 16 2019 2019 7 19 8 16 24 2020 2020 7 24PPT 1978 6.7 2016 36.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (2016) (2010) (1978) 2016 / 2018 % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 城区房价 市郊房价 消费收入比 居住在城区的家庭房价收入比PPT 31.01% 31.70% 30.65% 31.49% 32.68% 23.43% 22.61% 22.12% 22.68% 22.97% 12.38% 12.68% 13.00% 11.51% 10.09% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2015-2019 % -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% % -0.0465* (0.0286) 0.0187 (0.0591) -0.0375 (0.0896) -0.0225 (0.134) -0.200* (0.116) 0.189* (0.0842) 0.00288 (0.0942) -0.0511 (0.112) 0.696* (0.166) 0.320* (0.156) 0.618* (0.188) 1.001* (0.316) 0.651* (0.185) 1.100* (0.139) 1.235* (0.269) 0.939* (0.338) *10-4 -2.93 (12.8) -13.8 (14.7) -3.96 (18.9) 16.9 (34.7) -5.93 (38.2) -2.05 (18.3) 39.7 (36.2) 8.82 (39.8) *10-5 -5.56 (20.5) 12.1 (21.8) 12.1 (29) -41.2 (38.3) -5.58 (36.1) -32.1 (23.9) -24.1 (31.3) 59.6 (41.7) GDP *10-6 6.51 (6.64) 5.74 (6.38) 7.44 (9.79) -3.31 (13.8) 9.87 (11.7) 5.99 (10.2) 13.3 (10.1) 0.366 (16.8)PPT PPT .02PPT 2015 1 2017 7 ; 12 2020 3 6PPT + - - 15% /PPT 2010 + - 2010-2011 2012-2013 2014-2016 2017- 2010 2012 you+ 2014 YOU+ 2017PPT 2017 + 15% 200 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 mPPT 2020 101 696.9 18.7 1 183 613 365 340 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017-2020 1 2019 37.2 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 2017-2020PPT 2020 7 13 41 5.5 13 3600 2021 5000PPT 6.87 1845 2010 2015 2017 2018 93591 120390 131908 136882 52639 63007 67281 68651 2064 1790 1840 1852 47951 1400 1565 1610 492 58308 62453 63962 527 308 303 234 1237 1190 1109 982 29 11 11 11 339 40952 57383 64626 68232 18524 25103 27206 28306 3172 3366 3648 3798 1654 1868 1954 2062 6365 7343 8461 8998 5497 6773 7804 8158 754 631 718 760 931 1265 1421 1520 75 65 70 71 3979 10970 13345 14558 6.87 37.2 / 1845.45 600 or 37.2 N+1 2434.78 WindPPT 2 1.90 0.33 2.23 Solution A R4 B C Wind 1 12% 2.23 = 0.2428 x 1-63.2% x 25 / 0.33 =6.87 - 12% 1 x 6.87 - 0.2428 *63.2% x 37.2PPT PRS 63.5% 17.5% 19% / 61% 17.4% 21.5% / 60% 31% 9% / 44.5% 3.2% 45.8% 6.5% 65.3% 1.5% 33.2% / 39.8% 4.8% 55.1% / 62.1% 0.4% 36.7% 0.8% 63.2% 4.6% 25% 7.2% 2019 -PPT GDP 43% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 GDP ( GDP GDP 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 2018 % Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2020PPT GDP 10 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.6 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( ) 2008-2018 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2008 2018 2008 2018 GDP Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2020PPT 2019 60.6% 80% 2008-2018 2008-2018 % -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 08-18 08-18 (08-18 ) 44728568 47228568 37,759,745 43,725,353 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000 35000000 40000000 45000000 50000000 2008 2018 ( ) ( ) 36,450 40,615 43,725 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 2001 2011 2018 2001-2018 Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2020PPT 66% 30 4,993 4,056 3,757 18,290 19,045 20,103 8,421 12,052 12,950 4,746 5,463 6,916 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2001 2011 2018 25 25 44 45 64 65 2001-2018 18.7 19.4 16.7 21.8 23.5 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 $15,000 $15,000 29,999 $30,000 44,999 $45,000 74,999 $75,000 2018 % 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% California New York Illinois Ohio Georgia North Carolina Virginia Maryland Tennessee Minnesota Wisconsin Connecticut Oregon Alabama Oklahoma Utah Kansas Arkansas Mississippi Hawaii West Virginia Delaware Rhode Island Alaska Montana Vermont 2018 % Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2020PPT 0.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 16,000.0 $600 $600 799 $800 999 $1,000 1,400 $1,400 $600 $600 799 $800 999 $1,000 1,400 $1,400 2008 2018 2008-2018 0.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 16,000.0 18,000.0 2-4 5-19 20 2-4 5-19 20 2-4 5-19 20 2008 2013 2018 2008-2018 Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2020PPT .03PPT /PE/VC REITs + + P2P ABS CMBS/ABN REITs REITs PE VCPPT REITs CMBS 41% FHA 4% 32% 9% CMBS 2% 12% 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% all Units 1 Units 2-4 Units 5-49 Units 50 or More Units Individual Investor LLP/LP/LLC Reit/Real Estate Corporation Non-Profit or Co-op All Other JCHS tabulations of Mortgage Bankers Association Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Database JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau 2015 Rental Housing Finance SurveyPPT 2020 300 2020 3 20 15 15 2020 5 18 18 18 2020 8 10 10 6.5% 10 2020 8 13 20 3.2% 20 2020 8 21 15 3.2% 15 2020 10 14 8 6.67% 8 2020 2 28 30 30 2020 3 27 20 14 14 2020 4 10 40 40 2020 4 16 6 6 2020 5 8 25 25 2020 5 14 2020 50 2020 5 27 50 35 50 2020 9 29 20 20 2020 10 12 50 50 2020 10 30 50 50 2020 11 2 30 30 2020 WindPPT REITs REITs REITs 2020 REITs 40 REITs 99762 86846 79962 60570 56107 47010 299 297 309 250 164 148 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 MAA AVB EQR ESS CPT UDR 2019 REITs REITs Wind 2020 REITs 2020 5 21 10.1 2020 5 28 REITs2 3.26 2020 11 3 23.07 23.07 36.43PPT PE 2020 + + 74.08 116.28 65.31 12 9 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2018 2019 2020 2018-2020 73.98 92.75 49.12 7 8 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 20 40 60 80 100 2018 2019 2020 2018-2020PPT ABS ABS SPV + / / ABS / / / / / / SPV SPVPPT 2017 2018 2019 52181 236420 438309 85.8% 76.9% 76.7% 29.56% 30.4% 27.42% 12646 11572 10230 91.3% 75.8% 65.9% 30.2% 46.8% 44.6% 5200 1.53 2.41 2015 2019 2434 438309 4 180 79.7% 30% 2019 27.53 26.80 + THEN +PPT 2021 2 2 2 2 4 2021 2022 15% 2 4 2021 2022 15% 2021 2 2 3PPT 0 1 2 3 0 A A* 1+y% A* 1+y% 2 3A*1+ 1+y% + 1+y% 2 3A* 1-x% 3A* 1- x% * 1+y% 3A* 1-x% * 1+y% 2 3A* 1-x% * 1+y% 3 3A* 1-x% *1+ 1+y% + 1+y% 2+ 1+y% 3 0 A x yPPT .04 /PPT / 48.65% 36.49% 14.86% 2020 2020 15% % / YOU+ VPPT ? 2017-2019 2017-2019 2017 2019 12.67% 2019 2017 2018 2019 2439.00 2352.00 2130.00 1718.00 1637.00 1546.00 210.77 192.87 170.50 85.54 81.12 101.93 43.14 44.15 37.44 2057.44 1955.14 1855.87 79.54 117.45 146.55 138.67 187.44 200.63 218.21 304.89 347.17 163.34 91.98 -73.04 2017 2018 2019 48671.00 209413.00 431228.00 % 330.26% 105.92% 65678.20 267503.10 712908.80 % 307.29% 166.50% 2439.00 2352.00 2130.00 % -13.57% -9.67% % 85.80% 76.90% 76.70PPT & DOL EBIT Q % % S Sales V Variable Cost F Fixed Cost M Contribution Margin EBIT EBIT DFL % % S Sales V Variable Cost F Fixed Cost I Interest M Contribution Margin EBIT 1 0 0 =1 0 0PPT 2017 2018 2019 2439.00 2352.00 2130.00 2057.44 1955.14 1855.87 1718.00 1637.00 1546.00 210.77 192.87 170.50 85.54 81.12 101.93 43.14 44.15 37.44 218.21 304.89 347.17 79.54 117.45 146.55 138.67 187.44 200.63 163.34 91.98 -73.04 94.19 65.01 68.10 69.15 26.97 -141.14 13.60 22.26 -24.41 2.36 3.41 2018 2017 2019 0 2017-2019 22.26 1% 22.26% EBIT 3.41 EBIT 1% 3.41% 2018 -24.41 2019 0 2019PPT 4 1 3 2017-2019 2017 2018 2019 Net revenues: 82.29 100.63 112.12 Leased and owned hotels 63.38 74.70 77.18 Manachised and franchised hotels 18.51 25.27 33.42 Others 0.40 0.66 1.52 Operating costs and expenses Hotel operating costs: 56.75 64.76 71.90 Rents 20.59 24.06 26.24 Utilities 3.66 3.99 4.04 Personnel costs 13.88 16.63 18.54 Depreciation and amortization 7.73 8.69 9.60 Consumables, food and beverage 5.51 6.73 7.93 Others 5.38 4.66 5.55 Other operating costs 0.17 0.15 0.57 Selling and marketing expenses 2.85 3.48 4.26 General and administrative expenses 6.91 8.51 10.61 Pre-opening expenses 2.06 2.55 5.02 Total operating costs and expenses 68.74 79.45 92.36 Other operating (expense) income, net 0.71 2.26 1.32 Income from operations 14.26 23.44 21.08 Interest income 1.13 1.48 1.60 Interest expenses 0.87 2.44 3.15 Other income, net 1.28 2.03 3.31 Unrealized gain (loss) from fair value changes of equity securities 0.35 -9.14 3.16 Foreign exchange gain (loss) -0.18 -1.44 -0.35 Income before income taxes 15.97 13.93 25.65 Income tax expense 3.57 5.69 6.40 Income (loss) from equity method investments -0.12 -0.97 -1.64 Net income 12.28 7.27 17.61 Less: net (loss) income attributable to noncontrolling interest 0.00 0.11 -0.08 Net income attributable to Huazhu Group Limited 12.28 7.16 17.69 39.42 43.95 50.45 24.93 27.89 35.04 3.76 2.88 3.39 0.89 1.68 0.82 10-20 2-6 3-5 3-5 3%-5% 8-10 8-50 4%-6.5% ITPPT 12 16 18 / 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 9 134 87 389 V 50 120 507 98 366 1200 DatalnPPT 4PPT .05PPT PPT Q A Q A Q APPT 30 - A B C DPPT 04 + + 03 PMS BI ERP APP 02 01 CAS IT CAS ITPPT 1.5-3 10%-12% 1.5% To B To C 80% or orPPT .06PPT 2021 2020 IMF 2020 2021 IMF 2020 IMF 2020 IMF 8.1% 2021 2020 2 5000 4 1 3 1 3 4 MLF 1 LPR 20 50PPT 2021 7000 2020 6 Greystar 2020 8 10 L IV N ”PPT 2021 2035 2021 . . 2020 12 R4 2021 1 R4 14 2020 19PPT 2021 2021PPT 2021PPT 2021 . .PPT 2021 ReitsPPT 2021PPT PPT Professional Sincere Tospur Real Estate Consulting Co., Ltd