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DIGITAL NEWS PROJECT 2018 Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2018 Nic NewmanContentsAbout the Author 4 Acknowledgements 4Executive Summary 51. Looking Back at 2017 72. Key Trends and Predictions for 2018 122.1 Breaking Publishers Dependence on Platforms 122.2 Restoring Trust in the Era of Fake News 162.3 Social Media and Messaging in 2018 192.4 Social Challenge to Traditional T elevision Intensifies 212.5 Shifting Business Models: From Advertising to Reader Payment 222.6 Data, Registration, and New Permissions (GDPR) 272.7 Newsrooms Embrace Artificial Intelligence (AI) 293. New Devices and T echnologies 343.1 Intelligent Speakers, Intelligent Agents and the Battle for the Home 343.2 Smartphones and T ablets 373.3 Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) 393.4 Hear a bles 423.5 New Ideas from the East: The Rise of Asian T ech 424. An Uncertain Future 46 Postscript 48Survey Methodology 49THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM 4 About the Author Nic Newman is Research Associate at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism and has been lead author of the annual Digital News Report since 2012. He is also a consultant on digital media, working actively with news companies on product, audience, and business strategies for digital transition. He has produced a predictions paper for the last eleven years. This is the third to be published by the Reuters Institute. Nic was a founding member of the BBC News Website, leading international coverage as World Editor (19972001). As Head of Product Development he led digital teams, developing websites, mobile, and interactive TV applications for all BBC Journalism sites.Acknowledgements The author is grateful for the input of 194 digital leaders from 29 countries who responded to a survey around the key challenges and opportunities in the year ahead. Respondents included 35 Editors in Chief and 22 CEOs and 22 Heads of Digital and came from some of the worlds leading traditional media companies as well as digital born organisations (see full breakdown in appendix). Survey input and answers helped guide some of the themes in this reports and data have been used throughout. Many quotes do not carry names or organisations, at the request of those contributors. The author is particularly grateful to the research and administration team at the Reuters Institute for input, insight, and support Rasmus Kleis Nielsen, Lucas Graves, Alexandra Borchardt, Alessio Cornia, Annika Sehl, Silvia Majo-Vazquez, T om Nicholls, Joy Jenkins, Richard Fletcher , Antonis Kalogeropoulos, and Tim Libert as well as Christina Koster and Natasa Stuper . Additional thanks are due to a number of other experts who have contributed themes and suggestions for this report. Where relevant, these are referenced in the text itself or in footnotes: George Brock (City University), Charlie Beckett (LSE), Jane Singer (City University), Vivian Schiller (Independent Advisor), Frederic Filloux (Monday Note), Paul Bradshaw (Birmingham University), Alfred Hermida (University of British Columbia), Adam Tinworth (Journalist and Publishing Strategist), Richard Sambrook (Cardiff University), Kevin Anderson (Ships Wheel Media), Martin Ashplant (Digital Media Consultant), Tim Weber (Edelman), and Damian Radcliffe (University of Oregon). As with many predictions reports there is a significant element of speculation, particularly around specifics and the paper should be read bearing this in mind. Having said that, any mistakes factual or otherwise should be considered entirely the responsibility of the author who can be held accountable at the same time next year . Published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism with the support of Googles Digital News Initiative.5 JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2018 Executive Summary This will be a critical year for technology companies as they fight a rising tide of criticism about their impact on society and on the journalism industry. Platforms will be increasingly wary of the reputational damage that often comes with news, while many publishers will be trying to break their dependence on platforms. 2018 will also see a renewed focus on data as the ability to collect, process, and use it effectively proves a key differentiator . Media companies will be actively moving customers from the anonymous to the known so they can develop more loyal relationships and prepare for an era of more personalised services. In our Survey of 194 Leading Editors, CEOs, and Digital Leaders Almost half of publishers (44%) say they are more worried about the power and influence of platforms than this time last year . Only 7% are less worried. Publishers feel more negatively towards Facebook and Snapchat than they do about Twitter and Google. Despite this, publishers also blame themselves for their ongoing difficulties. The biggest barriers to success, they say, are not tech platforms but internal factors (36%) such as resistance to change and inability to innovate. Almost half of publishers (44%) see subscriptions as a very important source of digital revenue in 2018 more than digital display advertising (38%) and branded and sponsored content (39%). Expect more audio in 2018: 58% of publishers say theyll be focusing on podcasts, with the same proportion looking at content for voice activated-speakers. Almost three-quarters (72%) are planning to actively experiment with artificial intelligence (AI) to support better content recommendations and to drive greater production efficiency (e.g. robo-journalism). How Two Industry Leaders See the Year Ahead Another gigantic news year. Having been burned, platforms somewhat retreat from news. Most news organizations contemplate or launch pay models, most of which fail. Given the negative forces pressing on advertising (print and digital), economic distress in the industry grows. Further consolidation is one result. AI/intelligent assistants solving for consumer needs across devices, environments, media is the big tech story of the year. Mark Thompson, CEO, New York TimesTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM 6 This is a crucial year in the battle for the future of journalism. After years of disruption will the digital platforms really act on the emergency they have created, which has brought about a devaluation in the profession of journalism and a collapse of trust in media organisations and what they report? Ben de Pear , Editor , Channel 4 News, UK More Specific Predictions Investigations into misinformation and the role of platforms intensify, but lead to little concrete action in most countries beyond new rules for election-based advertising. Facebook or Google will be regularly accused of censorship this year after protectively removing content, which they feel might leave them open to fines. Fact-checking, news literacy, and transparency initiatives fail to stem the tide of misinformation and low trust. Publishers force users to sign-in/register for websites and apps as well as investing heavily in data to help deliver more personalised content and messaging. For the traditional media, well see a growing gap between big brands successfully managing digital transition and the rest (that are struggling). More publishers pivot to subscription (or other forms of reader revenue) as digital display advertising declines in importance. A number of publishers pivot away from video (. and back to text). In social media, well see a further move to messaging platforms and conversational interfaces. In Technology Voice driven assistants emerge as the next big disrupter in technology with Amazon strengthening its hold in the home. AR capable phones start to unlock the possibilities of 3D and immersive mobile storytelling. Well be doing less typing on our phones this year as visual search becomes more important. New smart wearables include ear buds that handle instant translation and glasses that talk (and hear). China and India become a key focus for digital growth with innovations around payment, online identity, and artificial intelligence. 7 JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2018 1. Looking Back at 2017 Downsides of Technology This time last year we predicted that the downsides of technology would come to the fore and that we would start to see a backlash against platforms and algorithms. Facebook felt the greatest heat in 2017 after it emerged that more than 120m Americans could have seen divisive social and political messages posted by Russia during the recent presidential election. Without proper checks, it seems that a foreign power was able to use fake accounts to buy $100,000 worth of political advertising in an attempt to influence a key election. More widely Facebooks engagement driven algorithm stands accused of pushing misinformation, propaganda, and polarising content into its news feed from Germany to Kenya to Myanmar . In less than a year , Mark Zuckerberg has gone from being viewed as a tech genius with presidential ambitions to an under-pressure CEO of a company being investigated by governments around the world. The fall out will continue through this year and beyond. Figure 1: Examples of Ads linked to Russia Being Investigated by Congress EXAMPLES OF ADS LIN K ED TO RUSSIA BEIN G IN VESTIGATED BY CON GRESS Source: US Senate Judiciary Committee Source: US Senate Judiciary Committee But it is not just Facebook. The infamous Russian troll farm based in St Petersburg created fake accounts on Twitter and Medium while Google has been under fire for surfacing misleading information in search results 1and allowing ads from big brands to appear in front of jihadist videos and other unsuitable content on YouTube. 2In the last year it has become clear that what was good for Silicon Valley was not necessarily good for America or the rest of the world and that narrative is likely to gather strength as pressures build around issues such as job displacement from automation and whether tech companies pay enough tax. T ech-funded initiatives to combat misinformation are underway. Facebook launched its Journalism Project in January 2017 with a focus on news literacy and combatting news hoaxes. 3It has been re-evaluating how stories are spread and has incorporated independent fact-checking 1 /washingtonpost/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/14/googles-top-news-link-for-final-election-results-goes-to-a-fake- news-site-with-false-numbers 2 /campaignlive.co.uk/article/google-balance-wrong-educating-advertisers-brand-safety- youtube/1426078#lWj0rQyXwfPdF3KY .99 3 /media.fb/2017/01/11/facebook-journalism-projectTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM 8 assessments more prominently in the news feed. Google has also been funding fact-checking initiatives and tightening its defences against bad actors looking to hack its search algorithm and YouTube platform. Figure 2: Facebook and Google Have Integrated Fact-Checking This Year FACEBOOK AN D GOOGLE HAVE IN TEGRATED FACT CHECK IN G IN TO THEIR SERVICES But, as we predicted last year , these efforts so far seem to have had little effect on the extent of extreme and partisan content. As Frederic Filloux of the Monday Note suggests this is partly about scale: Its like trying to purify the Ganges River , one glass at a time while ignoring the rest of the stream . There is also evidence that certain fact-checking approaches may reinforce existing beliefs, 4while the relationship between fact-checkers and some platforms has become strained. 5Amid all this, the pressure to regulate or even break up platforms is building in some countries. The US senate is proposing a bill to regulate political advertising on the internet. The UK parliament is investigating whether fake news shared on Facebook and Twitter influenced the Brexit referendum, while the Australian competition watchdog is looking at the market power of Facebook and Google with a specific focus on media. Only in Germany, though, did talk turn to action in 2017 . A new law was passed in October that promises to fine tech platforms up to 50m if they fail to remove hate speech or other obviously illegal material within 24 hours. This is controversial because US tech companies are effectively being put in a position where they become the arbiters of the limits or otherwise of free speech. The complexities of having private companies handling this role are likely to be exposed in 2018. Benefits of Social Media In the interests of balance, it is worth pointing out that two of the biggest stories of the year were driven in a positive way by social media. In October the hashtag #MeT oo became a rallying cry against sexual assault and harassment after a tweet by actor Alyssa Milano, one of Harvey Weinsteins most vocal critics. Within 24 hours, 4.7 million people around the world engaged in the conversation, according to Facebook, with over 12m posts, comments, and reactions. 4 /newyorker /magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds 5 /theguardian/technology/2017/nov/13/way-too-little-way-too-late-facebooks-fact-checkers-say-effort-is-failing9 JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2018 The movement has also inspired offshoot hashtags used by men, including #IDidThat and #HowIWillChange, in which men have admitted inappropriate behaviour . Figure 3: Social Media as a Rallying Cry SOCIAL MEDIA AS A RALLYING CRY #ME TOO (HARVEY WEINSTEIN) #GRENFELL TOWER Secondly, social media hashtags provided a crucial source of information for friends and relatives following the devastating Grenfell Fire in west London, which killed 71 people. They also showcased the generosity of Londoners who offered clothes, shelter , and money. Journalism Reflects on Biases, Starts to Fight Back The Grenfell story also provided a wake-up call for journalists in the UK. Residents had warned about the cladding months before, but the story had been ignored by a hollowed-out local media and a national one focused on Brexit. Channel 4 News presenter Jon Snow was visibly shaken when confronted by local residents and later argued that the failure to listen to these warnings showed that the media have little awareness, contact or connection with those not of the elite . The issue is highlighted by our news leaders survey this year , with almost half (46%) of leaders saying that they are uncomfortable with the level of diversity in their own newsrooms. Guardian Editor Katharine Viner spoke in November on the growing disconnect between comfortably off journalists and ordinary people and pledged t
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