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Founded in 1915, AmCham Shanghai was the third American Chamber established outside the United States. As a non-profit, non-partisan business organization, AmCham Shanghai is committed to the principles of free trade, open markets, private enterprise and the unrestricted flow of information.AmCham Shanghais mission is to enable the success of our members and strengthen U.S.-China commercial ties through our role as a not-for-profit service provider of high quality business resources and support, policy advocacy, and relationship-building opportunities.Find us online at amcham-shanghaiAbout PwCAt PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. Were a network of firms in 158 countries with more than 236,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at pwc. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see pwc/structure for further details. PwC Mainland China and Hong Kong Consulting Services is a leading consult-ing practice focused on creating sustainable value and lasting change for our clients, helping them address their most complex business issues from strategy through execution. With dedicated consultants in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, PwC Mainland China and Hong Kong Consulting Services is part of a global network of firms and serves clients in a variety of industry sectors across Mainland China and Hong Kong. For more information, please visit our website pwccn/consulting (for Mainland China), or pwchk/consulting (for Hong Kong). AmCham Shanghai and PwC would like to thank all survey participants and business executives who provided input for this report.Report authors: Doug Strub, Ruoping Chen, Ian DriscollContributors: Jason Wang, Jessie Niu, Qinly Wu, Julie ChienDesigner: Donegood Studio AcknowledgementsCHAMBER MESSAGEWelcome to The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghais 2018 China Business Report.This report is based on the results of our annual China Business Climate Survey, one of the longest running surveys of U.S. business in China that began in 1999. The report reflects the views and insights of our member companies based on their considerable experience doing business in this important market. This years survey was conducted between April 10 and May 10, 2018, with responses from 434 companies. In understanding the survey results, it is important to keep in mind the political backdrop at that time. The Trump Administration announced the results of its Section 301 investigation in March and the initial tranche of proposed tariff items was released in AprilAt the time of the survey, the U.S. and Chinese governments were in discussions to avert the use of tariffs, but as we go to print, it seems likely that tariffs in some form will become a reality.The survey included questions designed to measure trends in company performance, challenges and investment, as well as questions about trade policy, cybersecurity policy, trade policy tools and Chinese industrial policies. In this years report, companies show profitability in line with last year and marginally improved revenue growth. Optimism about the five-year business outlook was flat, but companies continue to invest despite the distraction of a year of U.S.-China trade frictions. Increasing domestic consumption is seen as a positive trend by many industries, even while Chinas unnecessarily onerous data security laws have proven costly and opaque. Expansion outside of Shanghai is impeded by a lack of talent, yet companies are still eagerly spreading their footprints. Despite the relative optimism our members feel guarded about the future. Government procurement practices still favor local companies and may become even more entrenched as Made in China 2025 and other policies institutionalize local-first purchasing. American companies in strategically important business areas experience pressure to transfer technology. These policies and practices are in turn stoking demand for reciprocity in the U.S.-China trading relationship even if our members generally oppose the use of retaliatory trade tariffs. Resolving these challenges in an equitable manner is essential for the United States and China to have a healthy long-term commercial relationship that brings benefits to both our peoples. We are grateful to our survey partner, PwC, for their support, as well as to all the executives who participated in this years survey and shared their thoughts.Kenneth JarrettPresidentEric Zheng ChairmanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY At the mid-point of 2018, member companies are reporting good financial performances and continue to invest in China, across many industries. Regulatory barriers and persistent government favoritism toward local companies continue to unfairly impede U.S. companies. Remaining restrictions on market access and the distorting effects of Chinas industrial policies also concern members. Business Performance: Profitability equated with last years survey, at 76.5% versus 76.9%, but 6% more companies stated that 2017 was “very profitable” versus 2016. Some 83% of manufacturers were profitable, just ahead of retailers (81%), but only 65% of services companies reported profits, down 7%. 57.7% of companies reported higher revenue growth in China than globally, up 7.7% from last year, led by the retail (70%) and manufacturing (64%) sectors. Chemicals (81%) and pharmaceutical sectors, medical devices and life sciences (79%) were the top performing industries.25% of respondents reported their China operations significantly contributed to U.S. head office profits and 20% said they added to U.S. production and employment. Investment: 61.6% of companies expect to increase their China investment in 2018. In 2017, 53% of companies made investment increases versus a predicted 62.8%panies declaring China as their number one investment priority rose 3% to 27%, while 30% said it was their second to third priority (2017: 31%), and 37% said it was one among many investment destinations (2017: 40%). Only 6% said it was low priority.Challenges: For the second year, 60% of respondents found that Chinas regulatory environment lacks transparency, which hampers good business practice. Lack of IPR protection (61.6%) and obtaining required licenses (59.5%) were the top two regulatory challenges. Rising costs and domestic competition, at 95.6% and 85.7%, were viewed as the greatest operational challenges. Chinas Cybersecurity Law has disrupted businesses. Of the companies that have been impacted, 41% said the law prevents them from leveraging global systems; 31% said they have had to establish a local data center and cloud presence, and 28% said this made them less willing to bring data into China. The governments VPN policies made work more difficult for 56% of companies. Policy Environment: 41.5% favor using investment reciprocity as a tool for gaining greater market access to China versus 40.3% in 2017, although opposition to using reciprocity (15.7%) was almost double last year (8.6%).Pressure to transfer technology is most often faced in industries China considers strategically important, including: aerospace (44%) and chemicals (41%). Overall, 21% faced such pressure. Retaliatory use of tariffs was supported by only 8.5% of respondents versus the 69% who were opposed. 36% of companies said they expect to indirectly benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), 29% said they will derive no benefit and only 16% believe they will directly benefit from Chinas ambitious cross-continental infrastructure development initiative.Made in China 2025 is seen as a revenue opportunity by 48% of respondents. 24% held a negative view.The survey results, and past surveys, are available online at amcham-shanghai/en/resources/publicationsINTRODUCTIONDespite U.S.-China trade frictions clouding the bilateral relationship over the past year, most U.S. businesses continue to perform well in China. Uncertainty about U.S.-China trade policy had a limited impact on investment and more companies are producing goods solely for the Chinese market. Even as GDP growth softens with the shiftfrom an investment-driven to consumption-led economy, companies whose business objectives align with the governments economic vision should continue to benefit. However, the U.S.-China trade stand-off shined light on the imbalances which continue to beleaguer members. These include a lack of a level playing field, pressure to transfer technology as the price to participate in Chinas market, a lack of reciprocity in cross-border investment, and Chinas use of state-funded industrial policies like Made in China 2025 to push domestic companies up the manufacturing value chain. These factors are unlikely to ameliorate in the short term, and Chinas industrial policies will tip the competitive environment in favor of domestic companies, especially in the medium to long term. In the past year, however, Chinas economy has benefitted from several stabilizing forces: the renminbi, despite recent weakening, had been up against the dollar for most of the year; the 19th Party Congress affirmed policy continuity; financial deleveraging is underway; consumer spending is firm; and a rebounding global economy is driving demand in China and overseas. Together these led to broadly positive operating results: The 2018 survey results also highlight many operating challenges which impede businesses. Survey takers believe Chinese government policies favor local companies (54.5%); 60% reported that Chinas regulatory environment lacks transparency, no improvement on last year; and lack of IPR protection and enforcement (61.6%), obtaining required licenses (59.5%), and data security and protection of commercial secrets (52%) remain top regulatory hindrances. Adding to the above difficulties are new barriers, including the governments onerous cybersecurity law and data localization requirements, which 32% of companies said prevented them from leveraging global IT systems and made 21% less willing to bring data to China. The governments VPN policies made work more difficult for 56% of companies, countering Chinas efforts to foster innovation.As China looks to the future, it should note lessons from the past. Japans use of state industrial policies to finance and nurture world-class companies failed, yet China has already earmarked $330bn of state money to develop semiconductors, AI and other technologies. Far better would be to improve market access, better protect IP, respect data security and thus create the conditions for national success. Failure to heed the drumbeat in the United States (and now the European Union) for a balanced trading relationship and investment reciprocity will narrow the opportunities Chinese companies have for investment in the United States, especially in the technology industry. (The Trump Administration announced the results of its Section 301 investigation in March and the initial tranche of proposed tariff items was released in April. These were followed by more threats of tariffs and two sets of finalized lists scheduled to take effect July 6. At the time of the survey, the U.S. and Chinese governments were in discussions to avert the use of tariffs. But as we go to print, tariffs in some form will most likely become a reality.)76.5% of companies were profitable in 2017 versus 76.9% in 2016. Profitability was higher in manufacturing (83%) and retail (81%) than services (65%).More companies (up 7.6%) reported significantly higher (11% or more) revenue growth in China versus their worldwide revenue growth.Five-year optimism was steady at 80%, but again below the 90% consistently reported several years ago.BUSINESS PEFORMANCEAs Chinas growing middle class consumes more, and foreign manufacturers increasingly pursue an “in China, for China” strategy, the manufacturing and retail sectors performed especially well. While manufacturing again led the way, with 83% reporting profits, this mirrored last years response rate. Retail, on the other hand, pointed to where Chinas economy is heading, jumping more than 10% from 70% to 81%. Meanwhile, the services sector lagged at 65% a 7% decline from last year citing growing domestic competition and rising costs as key challenges. Fig.1: Performance Operating margins upProfitableRevenue up77%77%20122011201
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