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2019CHINA BUSINESS REPORTTHE AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE IN SHANGHAICMYCMMYCYCMYKCBR-cover.pdf 1 2019/8/27 下午12:43About AmCham ShanghaiThe American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai (AmCham Shanghai), known as the “Voice of American Business“ in China, is one of the largest American Chambers in the Asia Pacific region. Founded in 1915, AmCham Shanghai was the third American Chamber established outside the United States. As a non-profit, non-partisan business organization, AmCham Shanghai is committed to the principles of free trade, open markets, private enterprise and the unrestricted flow of information.AmCham Shanghais mission is to enable the success of our members and strengthen U.S.-China commercial ties through our role as a not-for-profit service provider of high-quality business resources and support, policy advocacy and relationship-building opportunities.Find us online at amcham-shanghaiAbout PwCAt PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. Were a network of firms in 158 countries with more than 250,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at pwc. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see pwc/structure for further details. PwC Mainland China and Hong Kong Consulting Services is a leading consult-ing practice focused on creating sustainable value and lasting change for our clients, helping them address their most complex business issues from strategy through execution. With dedicated consultants in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, PwC Mainland China and Hong Kong Consulting Services is part of a global network of firms and serves clients in a variety of industry sectors across Mainland China and Hong Kong. For more information, please visit our website pwccn/consulting (for Mainland China), or pwchk/consulting (for Hong Kong). AmCham Shanghai and PwC would like to thank all survey participants and business executives who provided input for this report.Report Authors: Doug Strub, Ian Driscoll, Chloe Chen, Kate MagillContributors: Jessie Niu, Jason Wang, Qinly Wu, Silvia FengDesigner: Mickey Zhou at Snap Printing AcknowledgementsPwC Consulting Services in China is a leading consulting practice focused on creating sustainable value and lasting change for our clients, helping them address their most complex business issues from strategy through execution. With dedicated consultants in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, PwC Consulting Services in China is part of a global network of firms and serves clients in a variety of industry sectors across Mainland China and Hong Kong. For more information, please visit our website pwccn/consulting. CHAMBER MESSAGEWelcome to The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghais 2019 China Business Report.This report is based on the results of our annual China Business Climate Survey, one of the longest running surveys of U.S. business in China that began in 1999. The report reflects the views and insights of our member companies based on their considerable experience doing business in this important market. We are grateful to our survey partner, PwC, for their support, and to the 333 members who participated in this years survey and contributed their insights. This years survey was conducted between June 27 and July 25, 2019. The Chamber included questions designed to measure trends in company performance, challenges and investment, as well as about trade policy, tariffs, headcount, competition from domestic firms and our members views of the China International Import Expo (CIIE). When considering the results, it is important to keep in mind the prevailing political and economic atmosphere. The survey was released a day before the U.S. and China agreed to restart trade talks during the June G20 meeting. This came seven weeks after the U.S. had raised tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese exports. Against the already difficult backdrop caused by the trade tensions and tariffs in 2018 and 2019, Beijing was taking only limited measures to boost the economy. Although it moderated its financial deleveraging campaign in late 2018, it broke with past practice and up until this publications printing date had avoided any major economic stimulus package. While this approach is designed for long-term benefit, it has undoubtedly weighed on short-term business sentiment. Profitability in 2018 mimicked the rates seen in recent years, but projections for 2019 are discouraging. Optimism about the three- to five-year business outlook is the lowest in many years. An economic slowdown within the same period is the significant challenge anticipated by the most members. Companies are continuing to invest but at lower rates than in recent years. Headcount is being cut in manufacturing. Despite this sobering news, there are pockets of optimism. Levels of corruption and fraud reported by our members have declined while the government bureaucracy is viewed as more efficient. The regulatory environment has also seen some improvement.A pick-up in Chinas economy would clearly shift some of the gloom, but an end to tariffs would be the most welcome news. Some three-quarters of our respondents are opposed to the tariffs, but a quarter also believe that investment and market access reciprocity would help the U.S. achieve its trade and investment aims in China. According to our members, the two biggest issues are restricted market access and poor enforcement of intellectual property rights. Thus the words with which we ended this page last year seem even more resonant today: “Resolving these challenges in an equitable manner is essential for the United States and China to have a healthy long-term commercial relationship that brings benefits to both our people.” Ker GibbsAbout AmCham ShanghaiThe American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai (AmCham Shanghai), known as the “Voice of American Business“ in China, is one of the largest American Chambers in the Asia Pacific region. Founded in 1915, AmCham Shanghai was the third American Chamber established outside the United States. As a non-profit, non-partisan business organization, AmCham Shanghai is committed to the principles of free trade, open markets, private enterprise and the unrestricted flow of information.AmCham Shanghais mission is to enable the success of our members and strengthen U.S.-China commercial ties through our role as a not-for-profit service provider of high-quality business resources and support, policy advocacy and relationship-building opportunities.Find us online at amcham-shanghaiAbout PwCAt PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. Were a network of firms in 158 countries with more than 250,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at pwc. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see pwc/structure for further details. PwC Mainland China and Hong Kong Consulting Services is a leading consult-ing practice focused on creating sustainable value and lasting change for our clients, helping them address their most complex business issues from strategy through execution. With dedicated consultants in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, PwC Mainland China and Hong Kong Consulting Services is part of a global network of firms and serves clients in a variety of industry sectors across Mainland China and Hong Kong. For more information, please visit our website pwccn/consulting (for Mainland China), or pwchk/consulting (for Hong Kong). AmCham Shanghai and PwC would like to thank all survey participants and business executives who provided input for this report.Report Authors: Doug Strub, Ian Driscoll, Chloe Chen, Kate MagillContributors: Jessie Niu, Jason Wang, Qinly Wu, Silvia FengDesigner: Mickey Zhou at Snap Printing AcknowledgementsPwC Consulting Services in China is a leading consulting practice focused on creating sustainable value and lasting change for our clients, helping them address their most complex business issues from strategy through execution. With dedicated consultants in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, PwC Consulting Services in China is part of a global network of firms and serves clients in a variety of industry sectors across Mainland China and Hong Kong. For more information, please visit our website pwccn/consulting. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe survey results this year are decidedly mixed. While actual business performance was strong in 2018, confidence in the future has weakened considerably. Investment is slowing and revenue growth expectations are lower than in recent years. Chinas regulatory environment has improved and its growing consumer market is still a lure. However, market access barriers still impede foreign businesses and over a quarter of members are redirecting investment originally intended for China.Business Performance: Profitability in 2018 remained consistent with previous years, with 76.8% of companies reporting profits. Logistics companies all reported profits, as did 93.3% of chemicals firms and 89.9% of pharmaceuticals, medical devices and life sciences firms. Real estate, engineering and construction services fared poorly, with only 36.4% profitable.Revenue growth estimates for 2019 are weak. Only 50.5% of companies expect revenues to beat their 2018 numbers. 27.1% of companies anticipate lower revenues, markedly up from the 6.1% that projected lower revenues for 2018. 47.6% of automotive companies anticipate lower revenues. Five-year optimism dropped by one fifth to 61.4%, against historical rates of 80-90%, while pessimism about the future rose by 14.0 percentage points. The most downbeat industries included non-consumer electronics and chemicals. Investment: 47.1% of companies expect to increase their China investment in 2019, versus 61.6% in 2018. 22.5% of manufacturers plan to decrease investment in 2019. Challenges: Over the next 3-5 years, 57.8% of our members rated an economic slowdown as their biggest challenge, with U.S.-China tensions a close second (52.7%).In many areas, Chinas regulatory environment is better, though difficulty obtaining required licenses (56.7%), a lack of IPR protection and enforcement (56.4%) and procurement practices favoring domestic competitors (51.3%) were viewed as hindrances by more than half of respondents. Operational challenges have decreased, with inefficient government bureaucracy (down 22.0 percentage points) and corruption and fraud (down 20.4 percentage points) seeing the most progress. But these are still viewed as hindrances by 56.5% and 48.6% of respondents, respectively. Rising costs (90.3% viewed as a hindrance) and domestic competition (80.9%) remained the top two challenges for the third year in a row. 69.4% of businesses believe that their Chinese competitors are faster to market. 71.2% of respondents believe their product quality is more advanced than at competing Chinese firms. 35.6% of survey respondents see the U.S.-China trade tensions continuing for 1-3 years, and 12.7% expect them to continue for 3-5 years. 16.9% believe the trade tensions will continue indefinitely. Opportunities: 59.2% of respondents said increasing consumption will be the top factor to benefit their industry in the next 3-5 years, a slight increase from last year (58.0%) and the year before (56.5%). Similarly, 40% of those increasing investment in China in 2019 report doing so due to the growth potential of the Chinese market. Policy without a trade deal, 2020 may be worse. The majority of our members are opposed to the tariffs, preferring that China and the U.S. engage in dialogue to resolve outstanding trade and investment issues. However, a significant percentage believes that the U.S. government should use reciprocity as a tool to achieve its trade objectives. The causes of their dissatisfaction are the same problems that have plagued foreign businesses for years, and which China has failed to properly address. Market access, for example, remains restricted. Obtaining licenses is also not easy, report 56.4% of our members. And 56.0% of companies say that a lack of IPR protection and enforcement remains a hindrance to business. Alleviating these problems would address some of the American governments primary complaints about Chinas unbalanced trade and investment environment.China has made progress. Members report that the regulatory and operating environment has improved in several areas, including better tax administration. Corruption and fraud are less of a concern than in the past. Such improvements in the business environment dont just benefit U.S. companies.If China made similar progress in transparency, rule of law and better protection of intellectual property, it would spur both domestic and foreign companies to invest more. It would also encourage some of the companies now leaving to instead remain.6AmCham Shanghai 2019 China Business ReportBUSINESS PERFORMANCEU.S.-China economic relations were tense through most of 2018 and the first half of 2019. While intermittent trade talks and brief truces gave some cause for hope, tariffs imposed by both sides and protectionist rhetoric deepened bilateral trade tensions, with negative consequences for foreign firms operating in China.2018 Profitability stableDespite deteriorating U.S.-China trade relations, companies mostly weathered the economic tumult in 2018. The percentage of respondents reporting profits was 76.8%, similar to 76.5% in 2017 and 76.9% in 2016. The 11.1% of respondents reporting losses in 2018 compared favorably with 11.4% in 2017 and 12.7% in 2016.The manufacturing sector enjoyed a slight boost in profitability in 2018, with 86.2% of respondents reporting profits, up from 2017s 83.5%. In contrast, only 69.6% of retailers were profitable, versus 81.0% in 2017. Fewer service sector respondents reported profitability, at 64.7%. On an industry level, 100% of companies in logistics, transportation, warehousing and distribution were profitable, as were 93.3% of chemicals and 90.0% of non-consumer electronics respondents. But only 36.4% in real estate, engineering and construction services reported profits, while banking, finance and insurance struggled at 57.1%.Fig.1: Performance Operating margins upProfitableRevenue up77%71%2012201120132014 2015 2016 2017 201846%908070605040*Figures in graphs throughout this document are rounded up from 0.5, and down from 0.4, resulting in some graphics calculating over or under 100%.AmCham Shanghai 2019 China Bu
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